2014 NFL Power Ranking Consensus, Week 2

The first week of the season is in the books. Clearly, that means we can make conclusions for the entire rest of the season based on one game!

The first week of football is done. Thankfully we didn't have to wait very long to start week 2 (it's in a couple hours!).

What do we know now about all 32 NFL teams? Well, there isn't a lot we can be 100% confident about yet. But, that won't stop pundits and fans alike from jumping to the biggest of conclusions and using one game to extrapolate how the rest of the season will go.

Sure, one game is a rather small sample size. But if you base your opinion on how a team has performed "this season," well that game does represent 100% of the season so you can confidently express your opinion knowing that it's based on an entire seasons's worth of data.

Notable Quotes

The run game fell just shy of 2,000 yards last season (1,965), good enough for a No. 13 ranking. After one week the Chargers sit 31st in that category, despite what appeared to be a workable matchup with Arizona. Take out a 20-yard Ryan Mathews carry and he, Danny Woodhead and Donald Brown combined for 23 yards on 19 rushing attempts.

If Carson Palmer had played that well against the Chargers a few years ago, he’d still be with the Raiders.

With the Bolts up 17-6 in the fourth quarter in Arizona, 1-0 was there to be had. Then we experienced misplays by Philip Rivers. ... And drops from the receivers, including Keenan Allen at the end. ... And a backup center not snapping the football punctually, forcing San Diego to call a timeout. So many little football things deep-sixed the Chargers, and now they are a game back of those mighty Broncos in the AFC West.

Division Averages

There will be some extra movement on these graphs this week because we're incorporating the "Objective" rankings this week and they are a little off from the Subjective rankings. So don't put a lot of stock in the differences from last week.

Stock Rising

Stock Falling

Subjective Average

As a refresher: these rankings are the ones that has actual people ranking the teams based on their gut feelings. You'll see in a moment that some of these sites may even just throw darts at a board, or have a chicken pecking at numbers. I then take all those rankings and average them together, then sort the table based on the average ranking. This method evens out the peaks and valleys and allows us to get a more reliable "big picture" view of the perception of where teams rank in the league.

	Subjective
Seahawks	1	1	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1		1.083		0.099
Broncos	2	2	1	2	2	2	2	3	2	2	2	2		2.000		0.000
49ers	3	3	4	3	3	5	3	2	3	3	3	3		3.167		2.469
Bengals	5	4	3	4	5	6	5	8	7	5	8	4		5.333		3.758
Eagles	4	5	8	5	4	11	4	5	4	7	7	5		5.750		1.796
Saints	6	6	10	7	9	7	11	6	6	4	5	6		6.917		-2.826
Packers	8	11	6	9	12	3	7	4	5	8	6	7		7.167		-2.712
Patriots	7	7	9	6	10	4	12	11	10	6	4	8		7.833		-4.015
Falcons	9	14	5	10	13	10	10	15	8	11	10	11		10.500		7.773
Colts	10	10	16	8	15	8	13	7	11	10	9	9		10.500		-1.682
Panthers	11	8	18	13	6	9	6	9	13	9	12	12		10.500		3.864
Cardinals	14	12	7	14	8	12	8	13	14	14	11	10		11.417		1.856
Steelers	12	15	11	12	16	13	18	10	9	16	13	13		13.167		0.833
Lions	13	9	12	18	11	15	15	14	12	12	17	14		13.500		3.591
Dolphins	15	13	13	11	7	20	9	16	21	13	18	15		14.250		7.386
Chargers	16	17	14	16	18	17	14	22	15	15	15	16		16.250		-4.704
Ravens	20	16	15	17	20	14	17	17	17	18	14	17		16.833		-5.378
Jets	21	20	17	15	19	16	16	12	20	19	16	18		17.417		2.401
Vikings	17	19	20	19	17	18	19	20	19	21	19	20		19.000		6.364
Bears	18	18	23	20	22	19	22	18	16	17	20	23		19.667		-7.940
Titans	19	21	19	21	14	21	20	21	23	20	25	19		20.250		7.114
Bills	23	22	21	23	21	26	21	23	24	23	24	21		22.667		6.879
Texans	22	24	24	22	24	24	26	19	22	25	28	22		23.500		4.955
Chiefs	25	23	27	24	23	22	23	24	18	22	29	24		23.667		-7.394
Giants	26	26	22	27	29	23	25	25	25	26	23	29		25.500		-4.318
Buccaneers	24	29	29	25	25	29	24	29	27	27	21	25		26.167		-5.167
Cowboys	27	27	30	28	32	27	28	26	26	24	22	30		27.250		-4.250
Browns	29	25	25	30	28	31	29	28	28	28	27	26		27.833		0.985
Jaguars	30	28	31	26	27	30	27	27	30	30	26	27		28.250		0.568
Redskins	28	31	28	29	31	25	30	32	29	29	32	28		29.333		-4.515
Rams	32	30	26	31	26	28	31	30	31	32	31	32		30.000		-8.364
Raiders	31	32	32	32	30	32	32	31	32	31	30	31		31.333		0.576

Observations:

• Sigh, CBS had ONE JOB: to ensure the Seahawks were the unanimous top team. But NOOO, they had to ruin it. You're on thin ice, CBS; THIN ICE!
• You could pretty confidently say the top three teams in the NFL are Seattle, Denver, and San Francisco.
• Interesting that the Cardinals rose about half as much (2.091 spots) as the Chargers fell this week (-4.818).
• Most rankers have the Chargers right around the middle, between 14-17. But then there's SportingNews who has them at 22nd.
• Speaking of odd rankings, SI has the Titans at 14?
• The Chiefs looked bad on Sunday and their ranking reflects that.
• Usually it takes about 4-6 weeks before the pundits give up on the Rams. Their patience is much less this year.

Subjective Standard Deviation

Refresher again: Standard Deviation is a tool in statistics to measure how much variance there is in a set of numbers. To put more simply: I use it to look at who's ranked the most- and least-consistently. In Standard Deviation, the lower the number, the more consistent the values in the set. For our purposes, this means the lower the Standard Deviation, the more consistent the rankings. The opposite is true too: the higher the number, the less consistent the rankings.

This table is sorted by most consistently–ranked to least consistently–ranked.

	Subjective
Seahawks	1	1	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1		0.276		-0.299
Broncos	2	2	1	2	2	2	2	3	2	2	2	2		0.408		-0.018
49ers	3	3	4	3	3	5	3	2	3	3	3	3		0.687		-0.463
Raiders	31	32	32	32	30	32	32	31	32	31	30	31		0.745		0.457
Vikings	17	19	20	19	17	18	19	20	19	21	19	20		1.155		-1.551
Bills	23	22	21	23	21	26	21	23	24	23	24	21		1.491		0.334
Bengals	5	4	3	4	5	6	5	8	7	5	8	4		1.546		0.103
Jaguars	30	28	31	26	27	30	27	27	30	30	26	27		1.738		0.042
Browns	29	25	25	30	28	31	29	28	28	28	27	26		1.772		-0.028
Ravens	20	16	15	17	20	14	17	17	17	18	14	17		1.863		-0.448
Redskins	28	31	28	29	31	25	30	32	29	29	32	28		1.929		-0.195
Saints	6	6	10	7	9	7	11	6	6	4	5	6		1.977		1.077
Eagles	4	5	8	5	4	11	4	5	4	7	7	5		2.046		0.741
Rams	32	30	26	31	26	28	31	30	31	32	31	32		2.082		-0.378
Chargers	16	17	14	16	18	17	14	22	15	15	15	16		2.087		0.163
Giants	26	26	22	27	29	23	25	25	25	26	23	29		2.102		-0.147
Texans	22	24	24	22	24	24	26	19	22	25	28	22		2.217		-0.094
Bears	18	18	23	20	22	19	22	18	16	17	20	23		2.285		0.374
Lions	13	9	12	18	11	15	15	14	12	12	17	14		2.432		0.003
Jets	21	20	17	15	19	16	16	12	20	19	16	18		2.465		0.428
Buccaneers	24	29	29	25	25	29	24	29	27	27	21	25		2.478		-0.476
Cardinals	14	12	7	14	8	12	8	13	14	14	11	10		2.499		0.046
Patriots	7	7	9	6	10	4	12	11	10	6	4	8		2.511		1.398
Titans	19	21	19	21	14	21	20	21	23	20	25	19		2.521		0.136
Packers	8	11	6	9	12	3	7	4	5	8	6	7		2.544		1.468
Steelers	12	15	11	12	16	13	18	10	9	16	13	13		2.544		0.949
Falcons	9	14	5	10	13	10	10	15	8	11	10	11		2.566		-1.548
Cowboys	27	27	30	28	32	27	28	26	26	24	22	30		2.586		0.727
Chiefs	25	23	27	24	23	22	23	24	18	22	29	24		2.593		-0.270
Colts	10	10	16	8	15	8	13	7	11	10	9	9		2.693		0.612
Panthers	11	8	18	13	6	9	6	9	13	9	12	12		3.253		-0.030
Dolphins	15	13	13	11	7	20	9	16	21	13	18	15		4.003		0.611

Observations:

• Vikings pretty solidly at ~20th spot.
• Dolphins very inconsistently-ranked, but that'll happen when their ranking spread goes from 7th to 20th.

Objective Average

Look what makes a return this week!

I call these rankings the "Objective" rankings because unlike the rankings above, these are rankings based on statistical models of some sort. I use the term "Objective" loosely here because there is still some inherent bias in how the various models are constructed. Each ranking site has their own criteria in what they feel is success in the NFL.

All that said, these rankings are more objective as they remove perception and bias and produce rankings based on how well teams actually play, not how they're perceived to play.

	Objective
Seahawks	2	1	1	7	4	1	1		2.429		-2.429
49ers	3	2	3	6	3	2	3		3.143		-3.143
Broncos	1	5	2	4	6	3	2		3.286		-3.286
Bengals	8	6	8	10	9	6	8		7.857		-7.857
Panthers	11	4	13	19	7	5	5		9.143		-9.143
Vikings	13	8	21	1	1	15	7		9.429		-9.429
Saints	6	12	5	25	18	7	4		11.000		-11.000
Cardinals	20	3	15	9	19	4	9		11.286		-11.286
Eagles	12	13	7	5	15	12	17		11.571		-11.571
Lions	18	20	9	3	2	17	15		12.000		-12.000
Dolphins	19	7	19	11	8	10	12		12.286		-12.286
Patriots	4	14	6	22	25	9	6		12.286		-12.286
Falcons	17	10	10	8	14	13	14		12.286		-12.286
Titans	16	11	26	2	5	11	19		12.857		-12.857
Chargers	9	9	14	24	20	8	18		14.571		-14.571
Packers	5	19	4	26	22	20	11		15.286		-15.286
Steelers	10	16	17	21	10	16	25		16.429		-16.429
Bills	14	15	28	17	11	19	27		18.714		-18.714
Colts	21	18	12	29	21	14	20		19.286		-19.286
Bears	7	26	11	16	28	27	21		19.429		-19.429
Jets	15	17	24	18	17	24	23		19.714		-19.714
Ravens	23	22	18	23	27	23	10		20.857		-20.857
Buccaneers	22	21	22	14	26	25	26		22.286		-22.286
Texans	25	31	29	20	12	26	22		23.571		-23.571
Redskins	24	32	25	13	24	31	24		24.714		-24.714
Browns	28	29	30	12	16	29	31		25.000		-25.000
Chiefs	27	25	16	31	30	18	28		25.000		-25.000
Giants	29	27	20	30	29	28	13		25.143		-25.143
Rams	26	24	27	32	32	22	16		25.571		-25.571
Raiders	32	30	31	15	13	30	30		25.857		-25.857
Cowboys	31	23	23	27	31	21	29		26.429		-26.429
Jaguars	30	28	32	28	23	32	32		29.286		-29.286

Observations:

• Ignore the "Change in Value" column.
• Wow. 8 of the top 10 teams on the objective average list are NFC teams. Once again the class of the NFL?
• Another wow: two separate lists rank the Vikings as first.
• These rankings can be relatively unreliable though because they only have one game's worth of data, or rely heavily on preseason projections. The more data they get in, the more accurate they become (generally).
• The Dallas Cowboys ... #SadTrombone

Objective Standard Deviation

	Objective
49ers	3	2	3	6	3	2	3		1.245		1.245
Bengals	8	6	8	10	9	6	8		1.355		1.355
Broncos	1	5	2	4	6	3	2		1.666		1.666
Seahawks	2	1	1	7	4	1	1		2.129		2.129
Falcons	17	10	10	8	14	13	14		2.864		2.864
Jaguars	30	28	32	28	23	32	32		3.057		3.057
Jets	15	17	24	18	17	24	23		3.534		3.534
Cowboys	31	23	23	27	31	21	29		3.812		3.812
Buccaneers	22	21	22	14	26	25	26		3.881		3.881
Eagles	12	13	7	5	15	12	17		3.923		3.923
Dolphins	19	7	19	11	8	10	12		4.527		4.527
Steelers	10	16	17	21	10	16	25		5.039		5.039
Ravens	23	22	18	23	27	23	10		5.055		5.055
Panthers	11	4	13	19	7	5	5		5.083		5.083
Colts	21	18	12	29	21	14	20		5.119		5.119
Rams	26	24	27	32	32	22	16		5.233		5.233
Chiefs	27	25	16	31	30	18	28		5.398		5.398
Redskins	24	32	25	13	24	31	24		5.750		5.750
Chargers	9	9	14	24	20	8	18		5.803		5.803
Giants	29	27	20	30	29	28	13		5.841		5.841
Texans	25	31	29	20	12	26	22		5.876		5.876
Bills	14	15	28	17	11	19	27		6.017		6.017
Cardinals	20	3	15	9	19	4	9		6.341		6.341
Lions	18	20	9	3	2	17	15		6.803		6.803
Vikings	13	8	21	1	1	15	7		6.842		6.842
Browns	28	29	30	12	16	29	31		7.091		7.091
Saints	6	12	5	25	18	7	4		7.290		7.290
Raiders	32	30	31	15	13	30	30		7.549		7.549
Titans	16	11	26	2	5	11	19		7.624		7.624
Bears	7	26	11	16	28	27	21		7.688		7.688
Patriots	4	14	6	22	25	9	6		7.722		7.722
Packers	5	19	4	26	22	20	11		7.995		7.995

Observations:

• Consensus here generally does indicate confidence in a team's performance. So 49ers, Bengals, Broncos are all about where they should be.
• Packers, Patriots, Bears, Titans, and Raiders are all over the map.

Overall Average

Now let's compare the two sets of data. We'll start with the "Overall Average" chart. This takes the Subjective Average and the Objective Average, and then averages those two numbers. This way it gives equal weight to both averages so that even though Subjective Average has a larger sample size, it doesn't drown out the Objective Average.

	Subj vs Obj
Seahawks	1.083	2.429		1.756		-0.574
Broncos	2.000	3.286		2.643		-0.643
49ers	3.167	3.143		3.155		2.481
Bengals	5.333	7.857		6.595		2.496
Eagles	5.750	11.571		8.661		-1.115
Saints	6.917	11.000		8.958		-4.867
Panthers	10.500	9.143		9.821		4.543
Patriots	7.833	12.286		10.060		-6.242
Packers	7.167	15.286		11.226		-6.771
Cardinals	11.417	11.286		11.351		1.922
Falcons	10.500	12.286		11.393		6.880
Lions	13.500	12.000		12.750		4.341
Dolphins	14.250	12.286		13.268		8.368
Vikings	19.000	9.429		14.214		11.150
Steelers	13.167	16.429		14.798		-0.798
Colts	10.500	19.286		14.893		-6.075
Chargers	16.250	14.571		15.411		-3.865
Titans	20.250	12.857		16.554		10.810
Jets	17.417	19.714		18.566		1.252
Ravens	16.833	20.857		18.845		-7.390
Bears	19.667	19.429		19.548		-7.821
Bills	22.667	18.714		20.691		8.855
Texans	23.500	23.571		23.536		4.919
Buccaneers	26.167	22.286		24.226		-3.226
Chiefs	23.667	25.000		24.333		-8.060
Giants	25.500	25.143		25.321		-4.139
Browns	27.833	25.000		26.417		2.401
Cowboys	27.250	26.429		26.839		-3.839
Redskins	29.333	24.714		27.024		-2.206
Rams	30.000	25.571		27.786		-6.150
Raiders	31.333	25.857		28.595		3.314
Jaguars	28.250	29.286		28.768		0.050

Observations:

• Only 3 AFC teams in the top 12 teams.
• 3 of the 4 worst-ranked NFC teams come from the NFC East.
• When combining the averages, the Seahawks, Broncos, and 49ers are heads and shoulders above everyone else.
• Overall, Vikings climbed 11 spots this week compared to their subjective ranking last week. Much of that is thanks to their objective ranking.

Overall Standard Deviation

The Overall Standard Deviation does not average anything out, it just takes the Standard Deviation across all the rankings. Yes this will even things out slightly, but it goes to show which teams have consensus across the board.

	Subj vs Obj
49ers	3.167	3.143		0.933		-0.217
Broncos	2.000	3.286		1.230		0.804
Seahawks	1.083	2.429		1.462		0.887
Bengals	5.333	7.857		1.915		0.472
Jaguars	28.250	29.286		2.367		0.671
Falcons	10.500	12.286		2.815		-1.299
Jets	17.417	19.714		3.109		1.072
Cowboys	27.250	26.429		3.120		1.261
Buccaneers	26.167	22.286		3.596		0.642
Ravens	16.833	20.857		3.921		1.610
Giants	25.500	25.143		3.923		1.674
Chiefs	23.667	25.000		3.924		1.061
Chargers	16.250	14.571		3.976		2.052
Texans	23.500	23.571		3.979		1.668
Steelers	13.167	16.429		3.990		2.395
Eagles	5.750	11.571		4.025		2.720
Panthers	10.500	9.143		4.078		0.795
Rams	30.000	25.571		4.170		1.710
Bills	22.667	18.714		4.287		3.130
Dolphins	14.250	12.286		4.309		0.917
Cardinals	11.417	11.286		4.331		1.878
Redskins	29.333	24.714		4.415		2.291
Lions	13.500	12.000		4.617		2.188
Browns	27.833	25.000		4.730		2.930
Bears	19.667	19.429		5.009		3.098
Saints	6.917	11.000		5.092		4.192
Raiders	31.333	25.857		5.322		5.034
Patriots	7.833	12.286		5.529		4.416
Colts	10.500	19.286		5.674		3.593
Titans	20.250	12.857		6.176		3.791
Vikings	19.000	9.429		6.278		3.572
Packers	7.167	15.286		6.556		5.480

Observations:

• The Packers and Colts didn't look that great last week, but was it just a fluke?
• The Vikings have the opposite problem, as do the Titans.
• Yeah, we're all in agreement: 49ers, Broncos and Seahawks are all good. So are the Bengals.

Difference in Averages

This compares the Subjective average ranking with the Objective average ranking. This tells us just how far off people are from the formulas. A positive number means people think they will be or are better than the stats indicate, a negative number means the math thinks they're better than what people think. The closer to 0 this number is, the more in agreement the Subjective and Objective rankings are.

Generally speaking, the Subjective Rankings tend to be more reactionary to a team's performance than the mathematical models are. You'll often end up with major peaks and valleys for a team in the Subjective rankings, where the Objective rankings are more steady.

	Subj vs Obj
Colts	10.500	19.286		8.786		17.604
Packers	7.167	15.286		8.119		12.574
Eagles	5.750	11.571		5.821		13.367
Patriots	7.833	12.286		4.452		8.270
Saints	6.917	11.000		4.083		8.174
Ravens	16.833	20.857		4.024		15.479
Steelers	13.167	16.429		3.262		17.262
Bengals	5.333	7.857		2.524		11.615
Jets	17.417	19.714		2.298		22.116
Falcons	10.500	12.286		1.786		20.059
Seahawks	1.083	2.429		1.345		2.527
Chiefs	23.667	25.000		1.333		17.606
Broncos	2.000	3.286		1.286		3.286
Jaguars	28.250	29.286		1.036		29.854
Texans	23.500	23.571		0.071		28.526
49ers	3.167	3.143		-0.024		5.612
Cardinals	11.417	11.286		-0.131		13.142
Bears	19.667	19.429		-0.238		11.489
Giants	25.500	25.143		-0.357		20.825
Cowboys	27.250	26.429		-0.821		22.179
Panthers	10.500	9.143		-1.357		13.007
Lions	13.500	12.000		-1.500		15.591
Chargers	16.250	14.571		-1.679		9.867
Dolphins	14.250	12.286		-1.964		19.672
Browns	27.833	25.000		-2.833		25.985
Buccaneers	26.167	22.286		-3.881		17.119
Bills	22.667	18.714		-3.952		25.594
Rams	30.000	25.571		-4.429		17.207
Redskins	29.333	24.714		-4.619		20.199
Raiders	31.333	25.857		-5.476		26.433
Titans	20.250	12.857		-7.393		19.971
Vikings	19.000	9.429		-9.571		15.793

Observations:

• This can be a fun chart to look at as the year goes on. It's been pretty good at predicting which teams will have preseason success, and who will flame out. But, this early in the season it's just fun to look at.
• Generally, when a team has a much higher subjective average than objective average, I would call them "Overrated." So in this instance, the Colts and Packers would be "overrated." I'm not ready to slap that label there yet.
• Same story on the opposite end, the Titans and Vikings would generally be called "Underrated." Not yet.
• If there's a silver lining for us Chargers fans, the Chargers are slightly underrated.

Sources

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