SB Nation

John Crean | September 11, 2014

2014 NFL Power Ranking Consensus, Week 2

Jumping to Conclusions

The first week of the season is in the books. Clearly, that means we can make conclusions for the entire rest of the season based on one game!

The first week of football is done. Thankfully we didn't have to wait very long to start week 2 (it's in a couple hours!).

What do we know now about all 32 NFL teams? Well, there isn't a lot we can be 100% confident about yet. But, that won't stop pundits and fans alike from jumping to the biggest of conclusions and using one game to extrapolate how the rest of the season will go.

Sure, one game is a rather small sample size. But if you base your opinion on how a team has performed "this season," well that game does represent 100% of the season so you can confidently express your opinion knowing that it's based on an entire seasons's worth of data.

Notable Quotes

The run game fell just shy of 2,000 yards last season (1,965), good enough for a No. 13 ranking. After one week the Chargers sit 31st in that category, despite what appeared to be a workable matchup with Arizona. Take out a 20-yard Ryan Mathews carry and he, Danny Woodhead and Donald Brown combined for 23 yards on 19 rushing attempts.

If Carson Palmer had played that well against the Chargers a few years ago, he’d still be with the Raiders.

With the Bolts up 17-6 in the fourth quarter in Arizona, 1-0 was there to be had. Then we experienced misplays by Philip Rivers. ... And drops from the receivers, including Keenan Allen at the end. ... And a backup center not snapping the football punctually, forcing San Diego to call a timeout. So many little football things deep-sixed the Chargers, and now they are a game back of those mighty Broncos in the AFC West.

Division Averages

Division Week 1 Average Week 2 Average Difference
NFC West 10.4318 11.1184 -0.6866
NFC South 14.4318 13.5789 0.8529
NFC North 14.6591 14.5395 0.1196
AFC East 18.7045 15.6184 3.0861
AFC North 15.8409 16.4342 -0.5933
AFC West 15.4318 17.8947 -2.4629
AFC South 23.3636 20.8553 2.5083
NFC East 19.1364 21.9605 -2.8241

There will be some extra movement on these graphs this week because we're incorporating the "Objective" rankings this week and they are a little off from the Subjective rankings. So don't put a lot of stock in the differences from last week.

Stock Rising

Team Week 1 Average Week 2 Average Difference
MIN 25.364 14.214 11.150
TEN 27.364 16.554 10.810
BUF 29.546 20.691 8.855
MIA 21.636 13.268 8.368
ATL 18.273 11.393 6.880

Stock Falling

Team Week 1 Average Week 2 Average Difference
KC 16.273 24.333 -8.060
CHI 11.727 19.548 -7.821
BAL 11.455 18.845 -7.390
GB 4.455 11.226 -6.771
NE 3.818 10.060 -6.242

Subjective Average

As a refresher: these rankings are the ones that has actual people ranking the teams based on their gut feelings. You'll see in a moment that some of these sites may even just throw darts at a board, or have a chicken pecking at numbers. I then take all those rankings and average them together, then sort the table based on the average ranking. This method evens out the peaks and valleys and allows us to get a more reliable "big picture" view of the perception of where teams rank in the league.

Subjective
ESPN Fox CBS USA Today Sports Illustrated ProFootballTalk NFL.com SportingNews SB Nation Reddit Bleacher Report Associated Press Average Change since last period
Seahawks 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1.083 0.099 Rising
Broncos 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 2.000 0.000 No Change
49ers 3 3 4 3 3 5 3 2 3 3 3 3 3.167 2.469 Rising
Bengals 5 4 3 4 5 6 5 8 7 5 8 4 5.333 3.758 Rising
Eagles 4 5 8 5 4 11 4 5 4 7 7 5 5.750 1.796 Rising
Saints 6 6 10 7 9 7 11 6 6 4 5 6 6.917 -2.826 Falling
Packers 8 11 6 9 12 3 7 4 5 8 6 7 7.167 -2.712 Falling
Patriots 7 7 9 6 10 4 12 11 10 6 4 8 7.833 -4.015 Falling
Falcons 9 14 5 10 13 10 10 15 8 11 10 11 10.500 7.773 Rising
Colts 10 10 16 8 15 8 13 7 11 10 9 9 10.500 -1.682 Falling
Panthers 11 8 18 13 6 9 6 9 13 9 12 12 10.500 3.864 Rising
Cardinals 14 12 7 14 8 12 8 13 14 14 11 10 11.417 1.856 Rising
Steelers 12 15 11 12 16 13 18 10 9 16 13 13 13.167 0.833 Rising
Lions 13 9 12 18 11 15 15 14 12 12 17 14 13.500 3.591 Rising
Dolphins 15 13 13 11 7 20 9 16 21 13 18 15 14.250 7.386 Rising
Chargers 16 17 14 16 18 17 14 22 15 15 15 16 16.250 -4.704 Falling
Ravens 20 16 15 17 20 14 17 17 17 18 14 17 16.833 -5.378 Falling
Jets 21 20 17 15 19 16 16 12 20 19 16 18 17.417 2.401 Rising
Vikings 17 19 20 19 17 18 19 20 19 21 19 20 19.000 6.364 Rising
Bears 18 18 23 20 22 19 22 18 16 17 20 23 19.667 -7.940 Falling
Titans 19 21 19 21 14 21 20 21 23 20 25 19 20.250 7.114 Rising
Bills 23 22 21 23 21 26 21 23 24 23 24 21 22.667 6.879 Rising
Texans 22 24 24 22 24 24 26 19 22 25 28 22 23.500 4.955 Rising
Chiefs 25 23 27 24 23 22 23 24 18 22 29 24 23.667 -7.394 Falling
Giants 26 26 22 27 29 23 25 25 25 26 23 29 25.500 -4.318 Falling
Buccaneers 24 29 29 25 25 29 24 29 27 27 21 25 26.167 -5.167 Falling
Cowboys 27 27 30 28 32 27 28 26 26 24 22 30 27.250 -4.250 Falling
Browns 29 25 25 30 28 31 29 28 28 28 27 26 27.833 0.985 Rising
Jaguars 30 28 31 26 27 30 27 27 30 30 26 27 28.250 0.568 Rising
Redskins 28 31 28 29 31 25 30 32 29 29 32 28 29.333 -4.515 Falling
Rams 32 30 26 31 26 28 31 30 31 32 31 32 30.000 -8.364 Falling
Raiders 31 32 32 32 30 32 32 31 32 31 30 31 31.333 0.576 Rising

Observations:

  • Sigh, CBS had ONE JOB: to ensure the Seahawks were the unanimous top team. But NOOO, they had to ruin it. You're on thin ice, CBS; THIN ICE!
  • You could pretty confidently say the top three teams in the NFL are Seattle, Denver, and San Francisco.
  • Interesting that the Cardinals rose about half as much (2.091 spots) as the Chargers fell this week (-4.818).
  • Most rankers have the Chargers right around the middle, between 14-17. But then there's SportingNews who has them at 22nd.
  • Speaking of odd rankings, SI has the Titans at 14?
  • The Chiefs looked bad on Sunday and their ranking reflects that.
  • Usually it takes about 4-6 weeks before the pundits give up on the Rams. Their patience is much less this year.

Subjective Standard Deviation

Refresher again: Standard Deviation is a tool in statistics to measure how much variance there is in a set of numbers. To put more simply: I use it to look at who's ranked the most- and least-consistently. In Standard Deviation, the lower the number, the more consistent the values in the set. For our purposes, this means the lower the Standard Deviation, the more consistent the rankings. The opposite is true too: the higher the number, the less consistent the rankings.

This table is sorted by most consistently–ranked to least consistently–ranked.

Subjective
ESPN Fox CBS USA Today Sports Illustrated ProFootballTalk NFL.com SportingNews SB Nation Reddit Bleacher Report Associated Press Standard Deviation Change since last period
Seahawks 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0.276 -0.299 Falling
Broncos 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 0.408 -0.018 Falling
49ers 3 3 4 3 3 5 3 2 3 3 3 3 0.687 -0.463 Falling
Raiders 31 32 32 32 30 32 32 31 32 31 30 31 0.745 0.457 Rising
Vikings 17 19 20 19 17 18 19 20 19 21 19 20 1.155 -1.551 Falling
Bills 23 22 21 23 21 26 21 23 24 23 24 21 1.491 0.334 Rising
Bengals 5 4 3 4 5 6 5 8 7 5 8 4 1.546 0.103 Rising
Jaguars 30 28 31 26 27 30 27 27 30 30 26 27 1.738 0.042 Rising
Browns 29 25 25 30 28 31 29 28 28 28 27 26 1.772 -0.028 Falling
Ravens 20 16 15 17 20 14 17 17 17 18 14 17 1.863 -0.448 Falling
Redskins 28 31 28 29 31 25 30 32 29 29 32 28 1.929 -0.195 Falling
Saints 6 6 10 7 9 7 11 6 6 4 5 6 1.977 1.077 Rising
Eagles 4 5 8 5 4 11 4 5 4 7 7 5 2.046 0.741 Rising
Rams 32 30 26 31 26 28 31 30 31 32 31 32 2.082 -0.378 Falling
Chargers 16 17 14 16 18 17 14 22 15 15 15 16 2.087 0.163 Rising
Giants 26 26 22 27 29 23 25 25 25 26 23 29 2.102 -0.147 Falling
Texans 22 24 24 22 24 24 26 19 22 25 28 22 2.217 -0.094 Falling
Bears 18 18 23 20 22 19 22 18 16 17 20 23 2.285 0.374 Rising
Lions 13 9 12 18 11 15 15 14 12 12 17 14 2.432 0.003 Rising
Jets 21 20 17 15 19 16 16 12 20 19 16 18 2.465 0.428 Rising
Buccaneers 24 29 29 25 25 29 24 29 27 27 21 25 2.478 -0.476 Falling
Cardinals 14 12 7 14 8 12 8 13 14 14 11 10 2.499 0.046 Rising
Patriots 7 7 9 6 10 4 12 11 10 6 4 8 2.511 1.398 Rising
Titans 19 21 19 21 14 21 20 21 23 20 25 19 2.521 0.136 Rising
Packers 8 11 6 9 12 3 7 4 5 8 6 7 2.544 1.468 Rising
Steelers 12 15 11 12 16 13 18 10 9 16 13 13 2.544 0.949 Rising
Falcons 9 14 5 10 13 10 10 15 8 11 10 11 2.566 -1.548 Falling
Cowboys 27 27 30 28 32 27 28 26 26 24 22 30 2.586 0.727 Rising
Chiefs 25 23 27 24 23 22 23 24 18 22 29 24 2.593 -0.270 Falling
Colts 10 10 16 8 15 8 13 7 11 10 9 9 2.693 0.612 Rising
Panthers 11 8 18 13 6 9 6 9 13 9 12 12 3.253 -0.030 Falling
Dolphins 15 13 13 11 7 20 9 16 21 13 18 15 4.003 0.611 Rising

Observations:

  • Vikings pretty solidly at ~20th spot.
  • Dolphins very inconsistently-ranked, but that'll happen when their ranking spread goes from 7th to 20th.

Objective Average

Look what makes a return this week!

I call these rankings the "Objective" rankings because unlike the rankings above, these are rankings based on statistical models of some sort. I use the term "Objective" loosely here because there is still some inherent bias in how the various models are constructed. Each ranking site has their own criteria in what they feel is success in the NFL.

All that said, these rankings are more objective as they remove perception and bias and produce rankings based on how well teams actually play, not how they're perceived to play.

Objective
Football Outsiders Team Rankings Sagarin Aikman Efficiency Cold Hard Football Facts Massey ARGH Average Change since last period
Seahawks 2 1 1 7 4 1 1 2.429 -2.429 Falling
49ers 3 2 3 6 3 2 3 3.143 -3.143 Falling
Broncos 1 5 2 4 6 3 2 3.286 -3.286 Falling
Bengals 8 6 8 10 9 6 8 7.857 -7.857 Falling
Panthers 11 4 13 19 7 5 5 9.143 -9.143 Falling
Vikings 13 8 21 1 1 15 7 9.429 -9.429 Falling
Saints 6 12 5 25 18 7 4 11.000 -11.000 Falling
Cardinals 20 3 15 9 19 4 9 11.286 -11.286 Falling
Eagles 12 13 7 5 15 12 17 11.571 -11.571 Falling
Lions 18 20 9 3 2 17 15 12.000 -12.000 Falling
Dolphins 19 7 19 11 8 10 12 12.286 -12.286 Falling
Patriots 4 14 6 22 25 9 6 12.286 -12.286 Falling
Falcons 17 10 10 8 14 13 14 12.286 -12.286 Falling
Titans 16 11 26 2 5 11 19 12.857 -12.857 Falling
Chargers 9 9 14 24 20 8 18 14.571 -14.571 Falling
Packers 5 19 4 26 22 20 11 15.286 -15.286 Falling
Steelers 10 16 17 21 10 16 25 16.429 -16.429 Falling
Bills 14 15 28 17 11 19 27 18.714 -18.714 Falling
Colts 21 18 12 29 21 14 20 19.286 -19.286 Falling
Bears 7 26 11 16 28 27 21 19.429 -19.429 Falling
Jets 15 17 24 18 17 24 23 19.714 -19.714 Falling
Ravens 23 22 18 23 27 23 10 20.857 -20.857 Falling
Buccaneers 22 21 22 14 26 25 26 22.286 -22.286 Falling
Texans 25 31 29 20 12 26 22 23.571 -23.571 Falling
Redskins 24 32 25 13 24 31 24 24.714 -24.714 Falling
Browns 28 29 30 12 16 29 31 25.000 -25.000 Falling
Chiefs 27 25 16 31 30 18 28 25.000 -25.000 Falling
Giants 29 27 20 30 29 28 13 25.143 -25.143 Falling
Rams 26 24 27 32 32 22 16 25.571 -25.571 Falling
Raiders 32 30 31 15 13 30 30 25.857 -25.857 Falling
Cowboys 31 23 23 27 31 21 29 26.429 -26.429 Falling
Jaguars 30 28 32 28 23 32 32 29.286 -29.286 Falling

Observations:

  • Ignore the "Change in Value" column.
  • Wow. 8 of the top 10 teams on the objective average list are NFC teams. Once again the class of the NFL?
  • Another wow: two separate lists rank the Vikings as first.
  • These rankings can be relatively unreliable though because they only have one game's worth of data, or rely heavily on preseason projections. The more data they get in, the more accurate they become (generally).
  • The Dallas Cowboys ... #SadTrombone

Objective Standard Deviation

Objective
Football Outsiders Team Rankings Sagarin Aikman Efficiency Cold Hard Football Facts Massey ARGH Standard Deviation Change since last period
49ers 3 2 3 6 3 2 3 1.245 1.245 Rising
Bengals 8 6 8 10 9 6 8 1.355 1.355 Rising
Broncos 1 5 2 4 6 3 2 1.666 1.666 Rising
Seahawks 2 1 1 7 4 1 1 2.129 2.129 Rising
Falcons 17 10 10 8 14 13 14 2.864 2.864 Rising
Jaguars 30 28 32 28 23 32 32 3.057 3.057 Rising
Jets 15 17 24 18 17 24 23 3.534 3.534 Rising
Cowboys 31 23 23 27 31 21 29 3.812 3.812 Rising
Buccaneers 22 21 22 14 26 25 26 3.881 3.881 Rising
Eagles 12 13 7 5 15 12 17 3.923 3.923 Rising
Dolphins 19 7 19 11 8 10 12 4.527 4.527 Rising
Steelers 10 16 17 21 10 16 25 5.039 5.039 Rising
Ravens 23 22 18 23 27 23 10 5.055 5.055 Rising
Panthers 11 4 13 19 7 5 5 5.083 5.083 Rising
Colts 21 18 12 29 21 14 20 5.119 5.119 Rising
Rams 26 24 27 32 32 22 16 5.233 5.233 Rising
Chiefs 27 25 16 31 30 18 28 5.398 5.398 Rising
Redskins 24 32 25 13 24 31 24 5.750 5.750 Rising
Chargers 9 9 14 24 20 8 18 5.803 5.803 Rising
Giants 29 27 20 30 29 28 13 5.841 5.841 Rising
Texans 25 31 29 20 12 26 22 5.876 5.876 Rising
Bills 14 15 28 17 11 19 27 6.017 6.017 Rising
Cardinals 20 3 15 9 19 4 9 6.341 6.341 Rising
Lions 18 20 9 3 2 17 15 6.803 6.803 Rising
Vikings 13 8 21 1 1 15 7 6.842 6.842 Rising
Browns 28 29 30 12 16 29 31 7.091 7.091 Rising
Saints 6 12 5 25 18 7 4 7.290 7.290 Rising
Raiders 32 30 31 15 13 30 30 7.549 7.549 Rising
Titans 16 11 26 2 5 11 19 7.624 7.624 Rising
Bears 7 26 11 16 28 27 21 7.688 7.688 Rising
Patriots 4 14 6 22 25 9 6 7.722 7.722 Rising
Packers 5 19 4 26 22 20 11 7.995 7.995 Rising

Observations:

  • Consensus here generally does indicate confidence in a team's performance. So 49ers, Bengals, Broncos are all about where they should be.
  • Packers, Patriots, Bears, Titans, and Raiders are all over the map.

Overall Average

Now let's compare the two sets of data. We'll start with the "Overall Average" chart. This takes the Subjective Average and the Objective Average, and then averages those two numbers. This way it gives equal weight to both averages so that even though Subjective Average has a larger sample size, it doesn't drown out the Objective Average.

Subj vs Obj
Subjective Average Objective Average Average Change since last period
Seahawks 1.083 2.429 1.756 -0.574 Falling
Broncos 2.000 3.286 2.643 -0.643 Falling
49ers 3.167 3.143 3.155 2.481 Rising
Bengals 5.333 7.857 6.595 2.496 Rising
Eagles 5.750 11.571 8.661 -1.115 Falling
Saints 6.917 11.000 8.958 -4.867 Falling
Panthers 10.500 9.143 9.821 4.543 Rising
Patriots 7.833 12.286 10.060 -6.242 Falling
Packers 7.167 15.286 11.226 -6.771 Falling
Cardinals 11.417 11.286 11.351 1.922 Rising
Falcons 10.500 12.286 11.393 6.880 Rising
Lions 13.500 12.000 12.750 4.341 Rising
Dolphins 14.250 12.286 13.268 8.368 Rising
Vikings 19.000 9.429 14.214 11.150 Rising
Steelers 13.167 16.429 14.798 -0.798 Falling
Colts 10.500 19.286 14.893 -6.075 Falling
Chargers 16.250 14.571 15.411 -3.865 Falling
Titans 20.250 12.857 16.554 10.810 Rising
Jets 17.417 19.714 18.566 1.252 Rising
Ravens 16.833 20.857 18.845 -7.390 Falling
Bears 19.667 19.429 19.548 -7.821 Falling
Bills 22.667 18.714 20.691 8.855 Rising
Texans 23.500 23.571 23.536 4.919 Rising
Buccaneers 26.167 22.286 24.226 -3.226 Falling
Chiefs 23.667 25.000 24.333 -8.060 Falling
Giants 25.500 25.143 25.321 -4.139 Falling
Browns 27.833 25.000 26.417 2.401 Rising
Cowboys 27.250 26.429 26.839 -3.839 Falling
Redskins 29.333 24.714 27.024 -2.206 Falling
Rams 30.000 25.571 27.786 -6.150 Falling
Raiders 31.333 25.857 28.595 3.314 Rising
Jaguars 28.250 29.286 28.768 0.050 Rising

Observations:

  • Only 3 AFC teams in the top 12 teams.
  • 3 of the 4 worst-ranked NFC teams come from the NFC East.
  • When combining the averages, the Seahawks, Broncos, and 49ers are heads and shoulders above everyone else.
  • Overall, Vikings climbed 11 spots this week compared to their subjective ranking last week. Much of that is thanks to their objective ranking.

Overall Standard Deviation

The Overall Standard Deviation does not average anything out, it just takes the Standard Deviation across all the rankings. Yes this will even things out slightly, but it goes to show which teams have consensus across the board.

Subj vs Obj
Subjective Average Objective Average Standard Deviation Change since last period
49ers 3.167 3.143 0.933 -0.217 Falling
Broncos 2.000 3.286 1.230 0.804 Rising
Seahawks 1.083 2.429 1.462 0.887 Rising
Bengals 5.333 7.857 1.915 0.472 Rising
Jaguars 28.250 29.286 2.367 0.671 Rising
Falcons 10.500 12.286 2.815 -1.299 Falling
Jets 17.417 19.714 3.109 1.072 Rising
Cowboys 27.250 26.429 3.120 1.261 Rising
Buccaneers 26.167 22.286 3.596 0.642 Rising
Ravens 16.833 20.857 3.921 1.610 Rising
Giants 25.500 25.143 3.923 1.674 Rising
Chiefs 23.667 25.000 3.924 1.061 Rising
Chargers 16.250 14.571 3.976 2.052 Rising
Texans 23.500 23.571 3.979 1.668 Rising
Steelers 13.167 16.429 3.990 2.395 Rising
Eagles 5.750 11.571 4.025 2.720 Rising
Panthers 10.500 9.143 4.078 0.795 Rising
Rams 30.000 25.571 4.170 1.710 Rising
Bills 22.667 18.714 4.287 3.130 Rising
Dolphins 14.250 12.286 4.309 0.917 Rising
Cardinals 11.417 11.286 4.331 1.878 Rising
Redskins 29.333 24.714 4.415 2.291 Rising
Lions 13.500 12.000 4.617 2.188 Rising
Browns 27.833 25.000 4.730 2.930 Rising
Bears 19.667 19.429 5.009 3.098 Rising
Saints 6.917 11.000 5.092 4.192 Rising
Raiders 31.333 25.857 5.322 5.034 Rising
Patriots 7.833 12.286 5.529 4.416 Rising
Colts 10.500 19.286 5.674 3.593 Rising
Titans 20.250 12.857 6.176 3.791 Rising
Vikings 19.000 9.429 6.278 3.572 Rising
Packers 7.167 15.286 6.556 5.480 Rising

Observations:

  • The Packers and Colts didn't look that great last week, but was it just a fluke?
  • The Vikings have the opposite problem, as do the Titans.
  • Yeah, we're all in agreement: 49ers, Broncos and Seahawks are all good. So are the Bengals.

Difference in Averages

This compares the Subjective average ranking with the Objective average ranking. This tells us just how far off people are from the formulas. A positive number means people think they will be or are better than the stats indicate, a negative number means the math thinks they're better than what people think. The closer to 0 this number is, the more in agreement the Subjective and Objective rankings are.

Generally speaking, the Subjective Rankings tend to be more reactionary to a team's performance than the mathematical models are. You'll often end up with major peaks and valleys for a team in the Subjective rankings, where the Objective rankings are more steady.

Subj vs Obj
Subjective Average Objective Average Standard Deviation Change since last period
Colts 10.500 19.286 8.786 17.604 Rising
Packers 7.167 15.286 8.119 12.574 Rising
Eagles 5.750 11.571 5.821 13.367 Rising
Patriots 7.833 12.286 4.452 8.270 Rising
Saints 6.917 11.000 4.083 8.174 Rising
Ravens 16.833 20.857 4.024 15.479 Rising
Steelers 13.167 16.429 3.262 17.262 Rising
Bengals 5.333 7.857 2.524 11.615 Rising
Jets 17.417 19.714 2.298 22.116 Rising
Falcons 10.500 12.286 1.786 20.059 Rising
Seahawks 1.083 2.429 1.345 2.527 Rising
Chiefs 23.667 25.000 1.333 17.606 Rising
Broncos 2.000 3.286 1.286 3.286 Rising
Jaguars 28.250 29.286 1.036 29.854 Rising
Texans 23.500 23.571 0.071 28.526 Rising
49ers 3.167 3.143 -0.024 5.612 Rising
Cardinals 11.417 11.286 -0.131 13.142 Rising
Bears 19.667 19.429 -0.238 11.489 Rising
Giants 25.500 25.143 -0.357 20.825 Rising
Cowboys 27.250 26.429 -0.821 22.179 Rising
Panthers 10.500 9.143 -1.357 13.007 Rising
Lions 13.500 12.000 -1.500 15.591 Rising
Chargers 16.250 14.571 -1.679 9.867 Rising
Dolphins 14.250 12.286 -1.964 19.672 Rising
Browns 27.833 25.000 -2.833 25.985 Rising
Buccaneers 26.167 22.286 -3.881 17.119 Rising
Bills 22.667 18.714 -3.952 25.594 Rising
Rams 30.000 25.571 -4.429 17.207 Rising
Redskins 29.333 24.714 -4.619 20.199 Rising
Raiders 31.333 25.857 -5.476 26.433 Rising
Titans 20.250 12.857 -7.393 19.971 Rising
Vikings 19.000 9.429 -9.571 15.793 Rising

Observations:

  • This can be a fun chart to look at as the year goes on. It's been pretty good at predicting which teams will have preseason success, and who will flame out. But, this early in the season it's just fun to look at.
  • Generally, when a team has a much higher subjective average than objective average, I would call them "Overrated." So in this instance, the Colts and Packers would be "overrated." I'm not ready to slap that label there yet.
  • Same story on the opposite end, the Titans and Vikings would generally be called "Underrated." Not yet.
  • If there's a silver lining for us Chargers fans, the Chargers are slightly underrated.

Sources

Subjective Objective
ESPN Football Outsiders
Fox Team Rankings
CBS Sagarin
USA Today Aikman Efficiency
Sports Illustrated Cold Hard Football Facts
ProFootballTalk Massey
NFL.com ARGH
SportingNews
SB Nation
Reddit
Bleacher Report
Associated Press

About the Author

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