The idea of this article is pretty simple: look to see what kind of value teams have received by their draft slot and see what, if any, implications this has for the Chargers. The Chargers have the #25 slot in the first round, so looking at the results of the 22-32 picks might give some idea of what our odds are for finding an impact player in the first round. Here is a quick view by position, what the results of recent drafts look like in success rate (good player / total players drafted).
The rows' titles are pretty obvious, but had to aggregate some player types (S and CB = DB; OLB and ILB = LB; T, G, C = OL, etc). The Round 1 column shows the success rate for the entire round, 1-21 is the success rate for the top 21 picks and, the 22-32 column shows the success rate of the players selected in the 22-32 rounds in the 2008-13 drafts. Finally, the Gap column compares that success rate to the success rate of the top 1-21 picks aggregated together.
Some quick thoughts:
- If looking for a DB (CB's) and LB (OLB), as the Chargers are, there is some reason for optimism in the lower third of the first round
- Not many good QB's can be found in the lower slots
- Top 2/3 of the first round yields much better RB's than the bottom third
- They had to get snaps (>150 per season in the NFL)
- They had to get have a decent PFF score based on my metrics (around league average)