2014 NFL Power Rankings Consensus, Week 10

Last week I asked if any team could dethrone Denver. Seemingly right on cue, a team dethroned Denver. Does that make the Patriots the best team in the land?

There seems to be a prevailing sentiment in the NFL that if a team loses — no matter how good they had been in all the games leading up to that loss — it must drop down in the rankings. And many times, the team that won will surpass the losing team in the rankings. This really is a "what have you done for me lately" league.

It's also indicative that most Power Rankers base their rankings on W-L records.

So the Patriots beat the Broncos in Manning-Brady Bowl LXXXVIII. Clearly, the Patriots are the best team in the NFL, right? Maybe not.

Notable Quotes

Awful. What more can you say? The freefall continues for the Chargers, who were at the top of the charts just a month ago. Philip Rivers was a turnover machine on Sunday. The offense? Dysfunctional. The defense? Eventually given a reprieve by a Miami team too exhausted to keep scoring.

The Chargers are collapsing even faster than they’d like their stadium to.

If you want to be the worst team in football, then be the worst team in football. If you want to be a mediocre team, put some points on the board and attempt to play defense. If you want to be a good team, don't throw picks, be able to run the ball, and stop an offense. If you want to be a great team, stomp your opponents 37-0. Chargers, do something football related besides showing up in a uniform please. This week you looked like the worst team in the NFL.

Division Averages

Denver and Chargers hurting the AFC West divisional average.

Stock Rising

Miami has looked good in recent weeks, so their rise is not a surprise. I expected Pittsburgh to rise more though, honestly.

Stock Falling

Chargers fell 7 spots on average, and rightfully so; I'm disappointed they aren't ranked 33rd right now though.

Subjective Average

	Subjective
	ESPN	Fox	CBS	USA	PFT	NFL	SN	Reddit	AP		Average		Change in Value
Patriots	1	1	2	2	2	1	2	1	1		1.444		1.738
Cardinals	2	2	1	1	1	2	1	2	2		1.556		0.535
Broncos	3	3	3	3	4	3	3	3	3		3.111		-2.111
Eagles	4	5	4	4	3	4	5	5	4		4.222		0.596
Lions	6	4	6	9	5	9	4	7	5		6.111		0.525
Colts	5	6	10	5	8	6	6	4	6		6.222		2.142
Cowboys	9	7	5	6	6	7	7	6	10		7.000		-2.454
Packers	8	12	7	7	9	10	9	9	8		8.778		0.313
Steelers	7	13	12	11	7	5	11	8	7		9.000		5.546
Seahawks	10	10	8	8	10	8	8	10	9		9.000		0.273
Bengals	11	15	9	10	11	12	10	11	12		11.222		0.869
Chiefs	12	9	11	14	13	11	13	13	11		11.889		1.293
Dolphins	13	8	13	12	15	13	15	12	13		12.667		4.515
Ravens	14	16	17	13	12	17	16	15	17		15.222		-3.495
Bills	18	11	14	18	14	14	19	17	15		15.556		0.080
Saints	15	14	19	17	17	15	14	18	14		15.889		3.020
49ers	16	19	18	16	18	19	12	16	16		16.667		-4.940
Chargers	17	18	16	15	19	16	17	14	18		16.667		-7.849
Browns	19	17	15	20	16	18	18	19	19		17.889		1.566
Texans	20	23	20	19	23	20	21	20	21		20.778		-1.232
Vikings	23	20	23	22	20	21	22	24	22		21.889		2.747
Panthers	22	24	22	23	22	24	20	21	20		22.000		-1.545
Rams	25	21	25	21	21	23	23	25	24		23.111		3.071
Giants	24	22	21	24	25	22	24	23	25		23.333		-2.151
Bears	21	25	24	25	24	25	25	22	23		23.778		-0.505
Redskins	26	26	26	27	26	26	26	26	26		26.111		-2.293
Falcons	27	28	27	26	27	27	27	27	27		27.000		-0.364
Titans	28	29	28	28	28	28	28	28	28		28.111		0.162
Buccaneers	29	27	29	29	30	29	31	30	31		29.444		0.374
Jaguars	31	31	30	31	29	30	29	31	29		30.111		0.162
Jets	30	30	31	30	31	31	30	29	30		30.222		-0.586
Raiders	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32		32.000		0.000

Observations:

• Patriots beat the king, therefore they get to be the new king this week.
• Arizona, despite having a better record, gets passed up for the throne (though, not by much).
• All but one site has the Broncos at third now, as if one loss showed there are now two teams better than the Broncos.
• Chargers all the way down by 17th, getting cozy with San Francisco.
• 8 of the bottom 12 teams are NFC teams.

Subjective Standard Deviation

	Subjective
	ESPN	Fox	CBS	USA	PFT	NFL	SN	Reddit	AP		STD DEV		Change in Value
Raiders	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32		0.000		0.000
Redskins	26	26	26	27	26	26	26	26	26		0.314		-0.715
Broncos	3	3	3	3	4	3	3	3	3		0.314		0.314
Titans	28	29	28	28	28	28	28	28	28		0.314		-0.303
Falcons	27	28	27	26	27	27	27	27	27		0.471		-0.172
Cardinals	2	2	1	1	1	2	1	2	2		0.497		0.209
Patriots	1	1	2	2	2	1	2	1	1		0.497		-0.219
Jets	30	30	31	30	31	31	30	29	30		0.629		-0.252
Eagles	4	5	4	4	3	4	5	5	4		0.629		-0.484
Jaguars	31	31	30	31	29	30	29	31	29		0.875		0.013
Seahawks	10	10	8	8	10	8	8	10	9		0.943		-0.713
Buccaneers	29	27	29	29	30	29	31	30	31		1.165		0.229
Vikings	23	20	23	22	20	21	22	24	22		1.286		0.136
Texans	20	23	20	19	23	20	21	20	21		1.315		0.533
Giants	24	22	21	24	25	22	24	23	25		1.333		-0.916
Bears	21	25	24	25	24	25	25	22	23		1.397		0.647
Panthers	22	24	22	23	22	24	20	21	20		1.414		-0.363
Chiefs	12	9	11	14	13	11	13	13	11		1.449		-0.994
Packers	8	12	7	7	9	10	9	9	8		1.474		-0.917
Cowboys	9	7	5	6	6	7	7	6	10		1.491		0.709
Chargers	17	18	16	15	19	16	17	14	18		1.491		-0.501
Browns	19	17	15	20	16	18	18	19	19		1.524		0.025
Bengals	11	15	9	10	11	12	10	11	12		1.618		-0.311
Rams	25	21	25	21	21	23	23	25	24		1.663		1.088
Colts	5	6	10	5	8	6	6	4	6		1.685		-0.883
Ravens	14	16	17	13	12	17	16	15	17		1.750		-0.666
Saints	15	14	19	17	17	15	14	18	14		1.792		0.287
Lions	6	4	6	9	5	9	4	7	5		1.792		-0.175
Dolphins	13	8	13	12	15	13	15	12	13		1.944		0.046
49ers	16	19	18	16	18	19	12	16	16		2.055		0.241
Bills	18	11	14	18	14	14	19	17	15		2.455		1.229
Steelers	7	13	12	11	7	5	11	8	7		2.625		1.320

Observations:

• Raiders still unanimously the worst team in the league, which I don't see that as fair. I don't see their rankings changing until after (and if) they win a game though.
• Redskins, Broncos, and Titans almost all unanimous picks at their position if not for 1 ranker.
• In week 1, there was no unanimous consensus among the rankings, and the highest standard deviation was 4.114. What counts as middle of the pack at about 1.333 this week was better than 22 teams in week 1.
• In Week 1, the Falcons were the least consistently-ranked team by far (with a standard deviation of 4.114.) This week they're 5th most consistently-ranked.

Objective Average

	Objective
	FO	TE	TR	SAG	BG	Aikman	PFR	CHFF	Massey	ARGH		Average		Change in Value
Broncos	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1		1.000		0.000
Colts	9	3	4	3	6	6	2	4	6	4		4.700		1.118
Patriots	8	14	2	2	7	7	3	5	3	3		5.400		0.509
Chiefs	6	8	11	7	24	2	4	3	4	6		7.500		-0.409
Dolphins	3	2	12	11	20	5	5	2	8	7		7.500		6.500
Seahawks	7	7	3	4	13	10	12	8	7	9		8.000		-1.454
Cardinals	16	22	10	6	2	3	8	13	2	2		8.400		1.236
Packers	4	4	5	8	18	8	10	6	11	11		8.500		1.409
Eagles	5	18	9	5	4	20	6	17	5	5		9.400		2.418
Ravens	2	15	7	13	12	4	7	10	17	10		9.700		-3.154
Lions	12	10	13	12	9	11	13	9	13	8		11.000		1.546
Saints	11	9	6	9	17	9	17	14	18	18		12.800		2.473
Bengals	14	6	14	15	10	14	19	11	14	14		13.100		-0.736
Cowboys	13	11	17	16	8	12	15	18	10	12		13.200		-3.564
49ers	20	12	8	10	3	22	18	16	12	16		13.700		-3.518
Steelers	10	13	16	17	5	15	16	12	16	17		13.700		2.118
Bills	15	17	21	18	11	18	11	7	15	15		14.800		2.018
Chargers	17	25	15	14	27	19	9	20	9	13		16.800		-6.164
Browns	19	16	23	22	15	13	21	15	20	20		18.400		0.600
Texans	24	23	18	19	16	16	14	19	19	19		18.700		-1.791
Giants	22	24	19	21	19	21	20	22	23	21		21.200		-1.473
Bears	21	20	24	20	25	17	23	26	22	23		22.100		0.718
Redskins	23	5	26	26	21	24	22	23	26	25		22.100		-0.464
Vikings	27	27	25	25	14	25	24	21	24	22		23.400		1.964
Panthers	25	19	20	24	22	27	26	27	25	24		23.900		-2.082
Falcons	18	30	22	23	28	23	25	25	28	27		24.900		0.282
Titans	26	21	28	28	23	30	27	24	27	28		26.200		-0.200
Rams	29	29	27	27	26	26	30	30	21	26		27.100		0.355
Jets	28	28	29	30	31	31	29	28	29	29		29.200		-0.291
Jaguars	31	26	32	32	29	29	31	29	31	32		30.200		-0.200
Buccaneers	32	31	30	29	30	32	32	31	30	30		30.700		0.209
Raiders	30	32	31	31	32	28	28	32	32	31		30.700		0.027

Observations:

• Oh. The Broncos are still the unanimous best team in all formula-based rankings.
• Oh, and the Chiefs are only 3 spots behind the Broncos. Great.
• Chargers slide to 16.800. Not terrible, not great, mediocre.
• It's safe to call Team Efficiency an outlier when it comes to the Redskins.
• Raiders and Buccaneers tied for the bottom spot in these rankings, with the Jaguars just a half spot ahead of them.

Objective Standard Deviation

	Objective
	FO	TE	TR	SAG	BG	Aikman	PFR	CHFF	Massey	ARGH		STD DEV		Change in Value
Broncos	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1		0.000		0.000
Buccaneers	32	31	30	29	30	32	32	31	30	30		1.005		0.105
Jets	28	28	29	30	31	31	29	28	29	29		1.077		0.177
Raiders	30	32	31	31	32	28	28	32	32	31		1.487		-0.114
Giants	22	24	19	21	19	21	20	22	23	21		1.536		-1.061
Lions	12	10	13	12	9	11	13	9	13	8		1.789		-0.359
Jaguars	31	26	32	32	29	29	31	29	31	32		1.833		-0.026
Colts	9	3	4	3	6	6	2	4	6	4		1.952		0.152
Bears	21	20	24	20	25	17	23	26	22	23		2.548		-0.074
Rams	29	29	27	27	26	26	30	30	21	26		2.548		0.771
Titans	26	21	28	28	23	30	27	24	27	28		2.600		-0.533
Panthers	25	19	20	24	22	27	26	27	25	24		2.625		-0.834
Texans	24	23	18	19	16	16	14	19	19	19		2.900		-1.642
Seahawks	7	7	3	4	13	10	12	8	7	9		3.000		-0.500
Cowboys	13	11	17	16	8	12	15	18	10	12		3.059		-0.516
Browns	19	16	23	22	15	13	21	15	20	20		3.231		-0.837
Bengals	14	6	14	15	10	14	19	11	14	14		3.270		0.071
Falcons	18	30	22	23	28	23	25	25	28	27		3.360		0.320
Patriots	8	14	2	2	7	7	3	5	3	3		3.555		-0.364
Vikings	27	27	25	25	14	25	24	21	24	22		3.611		1.599
Steelers	10	13	16	17	5	15	16	12	16	17		3.635		-0.222
Bills	15	17	21	18	11	18	11	7	15	15		3.919		-0.100
Packers	4	4	5	8	18	8	10	6	11	11		4.056		-0.153
Saints	11	9	6	9	17	9	17	14	18	18		4.285		0.615
Ravens	2	15	7	13	12	4	7	10	17	10		4.518		0.601
Dolphins	3	2	12	11	20	5	5	2	8	7		5.315		-0.563
49ers	20	12	8	10	3	22	18	16	12	16		5.515		-0.543
Chargers	17	25	15	14	27	19	9	20	9	13		5.776		0.212
Redskins	23	5	26	26	21	24	22	23	26	25		5.941		1.423
Eagles	5	18	9	5	4	20	6	17	5	5		6.020		-0.472
Chiefs	6	8	11	7	24	2	4	3	4	6		6.037		0.669
Cardinals	16	22	10	6	2	3	8	13	2	2		6.515		-0.674

Observations:

• A lot of variance this week, and it's not all BeatGraphs' fault.
• Some formulas not very impressed with the Cardinals, despite their 7-1 record.
• Take out BeatGraphs and the Chiefs are actually fairly consistent, relatively speaking

Overall Average

	Subj vs Obj
	Subj Avg	Obj Avg		Average		Change in Value
Broncos	3.111	1.000		2.056		-1.056
Patriots	1.444	5.400		3.422		1.123
Cardinals	1.556	8.400		4.978		0.886
Colts	6.222	4.700		5.461		1.630
Eagles	4.222	9.400		6.811		1.507
Seahawks	9.000	8.000		8.500		-0.591
Lions	6.111	11.000		8.556		1.035
Packers	8.778	8.500		8.639		0.861
Chiefs	11.889	7.500		9.694		0.442
Dolphins	12.667	7.500		10.083		5.508
Cowboys	7.000	13.200		10.100		-3.009
Steelers	9.000	13.700		11.350		3.832
Bengals	11.222	13.100		12.161		0.066
Ravens	15.222	9.700		12.461		-3.325
Saints	15.889	12.800		14.344		2.747
Bills	15.556	14.800		15.178		1.049
49ers	16.667	13.700		15.183		-4.228
Chargers	16.667	16.800		16.733		-7.006
Browns	17.889	18.400		18.144		1.083
Texans	20.778	18.700		19.739		-1.512
Giants	23.333	21.200		22.267		-1.812
Vikings	21.889	23.400		22.644		2.356
Bears	23.778	22.100		22.939		0.106
Panthers	22.000	23.900		22.950		-1.814
Redskins	26.111	22.100		24.106		-1.379
Rams	23.111	27.100		25.106		1.712
Falcons	27.000	24.900		25.950		-0.041
Titans	28.111	26.200		27.156		-0.020
Jets	30.222	29.200		29.711		-0.438
Buccaneers	29.444	30.700		30.072		0.292
Jaguars	30.111	30.200		30.156		-0.020
Raiders	32.000	30.700		31.350		0.014

Observations:

• Broncos retain the top spot. Patriots are almost as close to the Cardinals as they are the Broncos.
• A lot of times, clusters of teams emerge. However, we have a fairly smooth gradation.
• Neat, an even 6-6 split of NFC and AFC teams in the top 12.
• The NFC doesn't seem to be the class of the NFL this year with half the conference occupying the bottom third of the rankings.

Overall Standard Deviation

	Subj vs Obj
	Subj Avg	Obj Avg		STD DEV		Change in Value
Jets	30.222	29.200		1.029		0.067
Broncos	3.111	1.000		1.076		1.076
Buccaneers	29.444	30.700		1.252		0.184
Raiders	32.000	30.700		1.259		-0.039
Jaguars	30.111	30.200		1.461		0.006
Giants	23.333	21.200		1.794		-0.742
Colts	6.222	4.700		1.982		-0.575
Titans	28.111	26.200		2.125		-0.403
Bears	23.778	22.100		2.245		0.303
Seahawks	9.000	8.000		2.325		-0.734
Panthers	22.000	23.900		2.340		-0.493
Texans	20.778	18.700		2.514		-1.001
Browns	17.889	18.400		2.581		-0.493
Falcons	27.000	24.900		2.673		0.359
Bengals	11.222	13.100		2.783		0.138
Vikings	21.889	23.400		2.866		1.187
Rams	23.111	27.100		2.948		1.482
Lions	6.111	11.000		3.027		-0.574
Packers	8.778	8.500		3.116		-0.332
Patriots	1.444	5.400		3.267		0.138
Bills	15.556	14.800		3.329		0.300
Saints	15.889	12.800		3.683		0.340
Cowboys	7.000	13.200		3.945		0.315
Steelers	9.000	13.700		3.965		1.016
Chargers	16.667	16.800		4.315		0.038
Ravens	15.222	9.700		4.449		0.290
49ers	16.667	13.700		4.494		-0.044
Redskins	26.111	22.100		4.757		1.304
Dolphins	12.667	7.500		4.828		0.180
Chiefs	11.889	7.500		4.998		-0.166
Eagles	4.222	9.400		5.094		-0.732
Cardinals	1.556	8.400		5.842		-0.492

Observations:

• I really don't have much to add here. Does anyone else see anything interesting here?

Difference in Averages

	Subj vs Obj
	Subj Avg	Obj Avg		Diff. in Avg		Change in Value
Cardinals	1.556	8.400		6.844		-0.702
Cowboys	7.000	13.200		6.200		1.109
Eagles	4.222	9.400		5.178		-1.822
Lions	6.111	11.000		4.889		-1.020
Steelers	9.000	13.700		4.700		3.427
Rams	23.111	27.100		3.989		2.716
Patriots	1.444	5.400		3.956		1.229
Panthers	22.000	23.900		1.900		0.536
Bengals	11.222	13.100		1.878		1.605
Vikings	21.889	23.400		1.511		0.784
Buccaneers	29.444	30.700		1.256		0.165
Browns	17.889	18.400		0.511		0.966
Chargers	16.667	16.800		0.133		-1.685
Jaguars	30.111	30.200		0.089		0.362
Packers	8.778	8.500		-0.278		-1.096
Bills	15.556	14.800		-0.756		-1.938
Seahawks	9.000	8.000		-1.000		1.727
Jets	30.222	29.200		-1.022		-0.295
Raiders	32.000	30.700		-1.300		-0.027
Colts	6.222	4.700		-1.522		1.023
Bears	23.778	22.100		-1.678		-1.223
Titans	28.111	26.200		-1.911		0.362
Texans	20.778	18.700		-2.078		0.558
Falcons	27.000	24.900		-2.100		-0.645
Broncos	3.111	1.000		-2.111		-2.111
Giants	23.333	21.200		-2.133		-0.678
49ers	16.667	13.700		-2.967		-1.421
Saints	15.889	12.800		-3.089		0.547
Redskins	26.111	22.100		-4.011		-1.829
Chiefs	11.889	7.500		-4.389		1.702
Dolphins	12.667	7.500		-5.167		-1.985
Ravens	15.222	9.700		-5.522		-0.340

Observations:

• The Eagles' objective ranking is finally coming up to meet their subjective ranking. Still quite a bit of disparity there.
• A disparity of nearly 5 spots or more for the top teams on this list. Are they really better than the stats indicate, or are they being set up for a fall?
• Agreement across the board about the Chargers being mediocre.
• Chiefs, Dolphins, and Ravens all significantly under-ranked.

Sources

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