SB Nation

John Crean | November 6, 2014

2014 NFL Power Rankings Consensus, Week 10

Broncos Dethroned

Last week I asked if any team could dethrone Denver. Seemingly right on cue, a team dethroned Denver. Does that make the Patriots the best team in the land?

There seems to be a prevailing sentiment in the NFL that if a team loses — no matter how good they had been in all the games leading up to that loss — it must drop down in the rankings. And many times, the team that won will surpass the losing team in the rankings. This really is a "what have you done for me lately" league.

It's also indicative that most Power Rankers base their rankings on W-L records.

So the Patriots beat the Broncos in Manning-Brady Bowl LXXXVIII. Clearly, the Patriots are the best team in the NFL, right? Maybe not.

Notable Quotes

Awful. What more can you say? The freefall continues for the Chargers, who were at the top of the charts just a month ago. Philip Rivers was a turnover machine on Sunday. The offense? Dysfunctional. The defense? Eventually given a reprieve by a Miami team too exhausted to keep scoring.

The Chargers are collapsing even faster than they’d like their stadium to.

If you want to be the worst team in football, then be the worst team in football. If you want to be a mediocre team, put some points on the board and attempt to play defense. If you want to be a good team, don't throw picks, be able to run the ball, and stop an offense. If you want to be a great team, stomp your opponents 37-0. Chargers, do something football related besides showing up in a uniform please. This week you looked like the worst team in the NFL.

Division Averages

Division Week 9 Average Week 10 Average Difference
NFC West 12.8864 13.4868 -0.6004
AFC North 13.9432 13.5395 0.4037
AFC East 16.4091 14.5789 1.8302
AFC West 13.0568 14.9079 -1.8511
NFC North 16.7841 15.7237 1.0604
NFC East 14.6477 15.8553 -1.2076
AFC South 20.6477 20.5921 0.0556
NFC South 23.6250 23.3158 0.3092

Denver and Chargers hurting the AFC West divisional average.

Stock Rising

Team Week 9 Average Week 10 Average Difference
MIA 15.591 10.083 5.508
PIT 15.182 11.350 3.832
NO 17.091 14.344 2.747
MIN 25.000 22.644 2.356
STL 26.818 25.106 1.712

Miami has looked good in recent weeks, so their rise is not a surprise. I expected Pittsburgh to rise more though, honestly.

Stock Falling

Team Week 9 Average Week 10 Average Difference
SDG 9.727 16.733 -7.006
SF 10.955 15.183 -4.228
BAL 9.136 12.461 -3.325
DAL 7.091 10.100 -3.009
CAR 21.136 22.950 -1.814

Chargers fell 7 spots on average, and rightfully so; I'm disappointed they aren't ranked 33rd right now though.

Subjective Average

Subjective
ESPN Fox CBS USA PFT NFL SN Reddit AP Average Change in Value
Patriots 1 1 2 2 2 1 2 1 1 1.444 1.738 Rising
Cardinals 2 2 1 1 1 2 1 2 2 1.556 0.535 Rising
Broncos 3 3 3 3 4 3 3 3 3 3.111 -2.111 Falling
Eagles 4 5 4 4 3 4 5 5 4 4.222 0.596 Rising
Lions 6 4 6 9 5 9 4 7 5 6.111 0.525 Rising
Colts 5 6 10 5 8 6 6 4 6 6.222 2.142 Rising
Cowboys 9 7 5 6 6 7 7 6 10 7.000 -2.454 Falling
Packers 8 12 7 7 9 10 9 9 8 8.778 0.313 Rising
Steelers 7 13 12 11 7 5 11 8 7 9.000 5.546 Rising
Seahawks 10 10 8 8 10 8 8 10 9 9.000 0.273 Rising
Bengals 11 15 9 10 11 12 10 11 12 11.222 0.869 Rising
Chiefs 12 9 11 14 13 11 13 13 11 11.889 1.293 Rising
Dolphins 13 8 13 12 15 13 15 12 13 12.667 4.515 Rising
Ravens 14 16 17 13 12 17 16 15 17 15.222 -3.495 Falling
Bills 18 11 14 18 14 14 19 17 15 15.556 0.080 Rising
Saints 15 14 19 17 17 15 14 18 14 15.889 3.020 Rising
49ers 16 19 18 16 18 19 12 16 16 16.667 -4.940 Falling
Chargers 17 18 16 15 19 16 17 14 18 16.667 -7.849 Falling
Browns 19 17 15 20 16 18 18 19 19 17.889 1.566 Rising
Texans 20 23 20 19 23 20 21 20 21 20.778 -1.232 Falling
Vikings 23 20 23 22 20 21 22 24 22 21.889 2.747 Rising
Panthers 22 24 22 23 22 24 20 21 20 22.000 -1.545 Falling
Rams 25 21 25 21 21 23 23 25 24 23.111 3.071 Rising
Giants 24 22 21 24 25 22 24 23 25 23.333 -2.151 Falling
Bears 21 25 24 25 24 25 25 22 23 23.778 -0.505 Falling
Redskins 26 26 26 27 26 26 26 26 26 26.111 -2.293 Falling
Falcons 27 28 27 26 27 27 27 27 27 27.000 -0.364 Falling
Titans 28 29 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28.111 0.162 Rising
Buccaneers 29 27 29 29 30 29 31 30 31 29.444 0.374 Rising
Jaguars 31 31 30 31 29 30 29 31 29 30.111 0.162 Rising
Jets 30 30 31 30 31 31 30 29 30 30.222 -0.586 Falling
Raiders 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32.000 0.000 No Change

Observations:

  • Patriots beat the king, therefore they get to be the new king this week.
  • Arizona, despite having a better record, gets passed up for the throne (though, not by much).
  • All but one site has the Broncos at third now, as if one loss showed there are now two teams better than the Broncos.
  • Chargers all the way down by 17th, getting cozy with San Francisco.
  • 8 of the bottom 12 teams are NFC teams.

Subjective Standard Deviation

Subjective
ESPN Fox CBS USA PFT NFL SN Reddit AP STD DEV Change in Value
Raiders 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 0.000 0.000 No Change
Redskins 26 26 26 27 26 26 26 26 26 0.314 -0.715 Falling
Broncos 3 3 3 3 4 3 3 3 3 0.314 0.314 Rising
Titans 28 29 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 0.314 -0.303 Falling
Falcons 27 28 27 26 27 27 27 27 27 0.471 -0.172 Falling
Cardinals 2 2 1 1 1 2 1 2 2 0.497 0.209 Rising
Patriots 1 1 2 2 2 1 2 1 1 0.497 -0.219 Falling
Jets 30 30 31 30 31 31 30 29 30 0.629 -0.252 Falling
Eagles 4 5 4 4 3 4 5 5 4 0.629 -0.484 Falling
Jaguars 31 31 30 31 29 30 29 31 29 0.875 0.013 Rising
Seahawks 10 10 8 8 10 8 8 10 9 0.943 -0.713 Falling
Buccaneers 29 27 29 29 30 29 31 30 31 1.165 0.229 Rising
Vikings 23 20 23 22 20 21 22 24 22 1.286 0.136 Rising
Texans 20 23 20 19 23 20 21 20 21 1.315 0.533 Rising
Giants 24 22 21 24 25 22 24 23 25 1.333 -0.916 Falling
Bears 21 25 24 25 24 25 25 22 23 1.397 0.647 Rising
Panthers 22 24 22 23 22 24 20 21 20 1.414 -0.363 Falling
Chiefs 12 9 11 14 13 11 13 13 11 1.449 -0.994 Falling
Packers 8 12 7 7 9 10 9 9 8 1.474 -0.917 Falling
Cowboys 9 7 5 6 6 7 7 6 10 1.491 0.709 Rising
Chargers 17 18 16 15 19 16 17 14 18 1.491 -0.501 Falling
Browns 19 17 15 20 16 18 18 19 19 1.524 0.025 Rising
Bengals 11 15 9 10 11 12 10 11 12 1.618 -0.311 Falling
Rams 25 21 25 21 21 23 23 25 24 1.663 1.088 Rising
Colts 5 6 10 5 8 6 6 4 6 1.685 -0.883 Falling
Ravens 14 16 17 13 12 17 16 15 17 1.750 -0.666 Falling
Saints 15 14 19 17 17 15 14 18 14 1.792 0.287 Rising
Lions 6 4 6 9 5 9 4 7 5 1.792 -0.175 Falling
Dolphins 13 8 13 12 15 13 15 12 13 1.944 0.046 Rising
49ers 16 19 18 16 18 19 12 16 16 2.055 0.241 Rising
Bills 18 11 14 18 14 14 19 17 15 2.455 1.229 Rising
Steelers 7 13 12 11 7 5 11 8 7 2.625 1.320 Rising

Observations:

  • Raiders still unanimously the worst team in the league, which I don't see that as fair. I don't see their rankings changing until after (and if) they win a game though.
  • Redskins, Broncos, and Titans almost all unanimous picks at their position if not for 1 ranker.
  • In week 1, there was no unanimous consensus among the rankings, and the highest standard deviation was 4.114. What counts as middle of the pack at about 1.333 this week was better than 22 teams in week 1.
  • In Week 1, the Falcons were the least consistently-ranked team by far (with a standard deviation of 4.114.) This week they're 5th most consistently-ranked.

Objective Average

Objective
FO TE TR SAG BG Aikman PFR CHFF Massey ARGH Average Change in Value
Broncos 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1.000 0.000 No Change
Colts 9 3 4 3 6 6 2 4 6 4 4.700 1.118 Rising
Patriots 8 14 2 2 7 7 3 5 3 3 5.400 0.509 Rising
Chiefs 6 8 11 7 24 2 4 3 4 6 7.500 -0.409 Falling
Dolphins 3 2 12 11 20 5 5 2 8 7 7.500 6.500 Rising
Seahawks 7 7 3 4 13 10 12 8 7 9 8.000 -1.454 Falling
Cardinals 16 22 10 6 2 3 8 13 2 2 8.400 1.236 Rising
Packers 4 4 5 8 18 8 10 6 11 11 8.500 1.409 Rising
Eagles 5 18 9 5 4 20 6 17 5 5 9.400 2.418 Rising
Ravens 2 15 7 13 12 4 7 10 17 10 9.700 -3.154 Falling
Lions 12 10 13 12 9 11 13 9 13 8 11.000 1.546 Rising
Saints 11 9 6 9 17 9 17 14 18 18 12.800 2.473 Rising
Bengals 14 6 14 15 10 14 19 11 14 14 13.100 -0.736 Falling
Cowboys 13 11 17 16 8 12 15 18 10 12 13.200 -3.564 Falling
49ers 20 12 8 10 3 22 18 16 12 16 13.700 -3.518 Falling
Steelers 10 13 16 17 5 15 16 12 16 17 13.700 2.118 Rising
Bills 15 17 21 18 11 18 11 7 15 15 14.800 2.018 Rising
Chargers 17 25 15 14 27 19 9 20 9 13 16.800 -6.164 Falling
Browns 19 16 23 22 15 13 21 15 20 20 18.400 0.600 Rising
Texans 24 23 18 19 16 16 14 19 19 19 18.700 -1.791 Falling
Giants 22 24 19 21 19 21 20 22 23 21 21.200 -1.473 Falling
Bears 21 20 24 20 25 17 23 26 22 23 22.100 0.718 Rising
Redskins 23 5 26 26 21 24 22 23 26 25 22.100 -0.464 Falling
Vikings 27 27 25 25 14 25 24 21 24 22 23.400 1.964 Rising
Panthers 25 19 20 24 22 27 26 27 25 24 23.900 -2.082 Falling
Falcons 18 30 22 23 28 23 25 25 28 27 24.900 0.282 Rising
Titans 26 21 28 28 23 30 27 24 27 28 26.200 -0.200 Falling
Rams 29 29 27 27 26 26 30 30 21 26 27.100 0.355 Rising
Jets 28 28 29 30 31 31 29 28 29 29 29.200 -0.291 Falling
Jaguars 31 26 32 32 29 29 31 29 31 32 30.200 -0.200 Falling
Buccaneers 32 31 30 29 30 32 32 31 30 30 30.700 0.209 Rising
Raiders 30 32 31 31 32 28 28 32 32 31 30.700 0.027 Rising

Observations:

  • Oh. The Broncos are still the unanimous best team in all formula-based rankings.
  • Oh, and the Chiefs are only 3 spots behind the Broncos. Great.
  • Chargers slide to 16.800. Not terrible, not great, mediocre.
  • It's safe to call Team Efficiency an outlier when it comes to the Redskins.
  • Raiders and Buccaneers tied for the bottom spot in these rankings, with the Jaguars just a half spot ahead of them.

Objective Standard Deviation

Objective
FO TE TR SAG BG Aikman PFR CHFF Massey ARGH STD DEV Change in Value
Broncos 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0.000 0.000 No Change
Buccaneers 32 31 30 29 30 32 32 31 30 30 1.005 0.105 Rising
Jets 28 28 29 30 31 31 29 28 29 29 1.077 0.177 Rising
Raiders 30 32 31 31 32 28 28 32 32 31 1.487 -0.114 Falling
Giants 22 24 19 21 19 21 20 22 23 21 1.536 -1.061 Falling
Lions 12 10 13 12 9 11 13 9 13 8 1.789 -0.359 Falling
Jaguars 31 26 32 32 29 29 31 29 31 32 1.833 -0.026 Falling
Colts 9 3 4 3 6 6 2 4 6 4 1.952 0.152 Rising
Bears 21 20 24 20 25 17 23 26 22 23 2.548 -0.074 Falling
Rams 29 29 27 27 26 26 30 30 21 26 2.548 0.771 Rising
Titans 26 21 28 28 23 30 27 24 27 28 2.600 -0.533 Falling
Panthers 25 19 20 24 22 27 26 27 25 24 2.625 -0.834 Falling
Texans 24 23 18 19 16 16 14 19 19 19 2.900 -1.642 Falling
Seahawks 7 7 3 4 13 10 12 8 7 9 3.000 -0.500 Falling
Cowboys 13 11 17 16 8 12 15 18 10 12 3.059 -0.516 Falling
Browns 19 16 23 22 15 13 21 15 20 20 3.231 -0.837 Falling
Bengals 14 6 14 15 10 14 19 11 14 14 3.270 0.071 Rising
Falcons 18 30 22 23 28 23 25 25 28 27 3.360 0.320 Rising
Patriots 8 14 2 2 7 7 3 5 3 3 3.555 -0.364 Falling
Vikings 27 27 25 25 14 25 24 21 24 22 3.611 1.599 Rising
Steelers 10 13 16 17 5 15 16 12 16 17 3.635 -0.222 Falling
Bills 15 17 21 18 11 18 11 7 15 15 3.919 -0.100 Falling
Packers 4 4 5 8 18 8 10 6 11 11 4.056 -0.153 Falling
Saints 11 9 6 9 17 9 17 14 18 18 4.285 0.615 Rising
Ravens 2 15 7 13 12 4 7 10 17 10 4.518 0.601 Rising
Dolphins 3 2 12 11 20 5 5 2 8 7 5.315 -0.563 Falling
49ers 20 12 8 10 3 22 18 16 12 16 5.515 -0.543 Falling
Chargers 17 25 15 14 27 19 9 20 9 13 5.776 0.212 Rising
Redskins 23 5 26 26 21 24 22 23 26 25 5.941 1.423 Rising
Eagles 5 18 9 5 4 20 6 17 5 5 6.020 -0.472 Falling
Chiefs 6 8 11 7 24 2 4 3 4 6 6.037 0.669 Rising
Cardinals 16 22 10 6 2 3 8 13 2 2 6.515 -0.674 Falling

Observations:

  • A lot of variance this week, and it's not all BeatGraphs' fault.
  • Some formulas not very impressed with the Cardinals, despite their 7-1 record.
  • Take out BeatGraphs and the Chiefs are actually fairly consistent, relatively speaking

Overall Average

Subj vs Obj
Subj Avg Obj Avg Average Change in Value
Broncos 3.111 1.000 2.056 -1.056 Falling
Patriots 1.444 5.400 3.422 1.123 Rising
Cardinals 1.556 8.400 4.978 0.886 Rising
Colts 6.222 4.700 5.461 1.630 Rising
Eagles 4.222 9.400 6.811 1.507 Rising
Seahawks 9.000 8.000 8.500 -0.591 Falling
Lions 6.111 11.000 8.556 1.035 Rising
Packers 8.778 8.500 8.639 0.861 Rising
Chiefs 11.889 7.500 9.694 0.442 Rising
Dolphins 12.667 7.500 10.083 5.508 Rising
Cowboys 7.000 13.200 10.100 -3.009 Falling
Steelers 9.000 13.700 11.350 3.832 Rising
Bengals 11.222 13.100 12.161 0.066 Rising
Ravens 15.222 9.700 12.461 -3.325 Falling
Saints 15.889 12.800 14.344 2.747 Rising
Bills 15.556 14.800 15.178 1.049 Rising
49ers 16.667 13.700 15.183 -4.228 Falling
Chargers 16.667 16.800 16.733 -7.006 Falling
Browns 17.889 18.400 18.144 1.083 Rising
Texans 20.778 18.700 19.739 -1.512 Falling
Giants 23.333 21.200 22.267 -1.812 Falling
Vikings 21.889 23.400 22.644 2.356 Rising
Bears 23.778 22.100 22.939 0.106 Rising
Panthers 22.000 23.900 22.950 -1.814 Falling
Redskins 26.111 22.100 24.106 -1.379 Falling
Rams 23.111 27.100 25.106 1.712 Rising
Falcons 27.000 24.900 25.950 -0.041 Falling
Titans 28.111 26.200 27.156 -0.020 Falling
Jets 30.222 29.200 29.711 -0.438 Falling
Buccaneers 29.444 30.700 30.072 0.292 Rising
Jaguars 30.111 30.200 30.156 -0.020 Falling
Raiders 32.000 30.700 31.350 0.014 Rising

Observations:

  • Broncos retain the top spot. Patriots are almost as close to the Cardinals as they are the Broncos.
  • A lot of times, clusters of teams emerge. However, we have a fairly smooth gradation.
  • Neat, an even 6-6 split of NFC and AFC teams in the top 12.
  • The NFC doesn't seem to be the class of the NFL this year with half the conference occupying the bottom third of the rankings.

Overall Standard Deviation

Subj vs Obj
Subj Avg Obj Avg STD DEV Change in Value
Jets 30.222 29.200 1.029 0.067 Rising
Broncos 3.111 1.000 1.076 1.076 Rising
Buccaneers 29.444 30.700 1.252 0.184 Rising
Raiders 32.000 30.700 1.259 -0.039 Falling
Jaguars 30.111 30.200 1.461 0.006 Rising
Giants 23.333 21.200 1.794 -0.742 Falling
Colts 6.222 4.700 1.982 -0.575 Falling
Titans 28.111 26.200 2.125 -0.403 Falling
Bears 23.778 22.100 2.245 0.303 Rising
Seahawks 9.000 8.000 2.325 -0.734 Falling
Panthers 22.000 23.900 2.340 -0.493 Falling
Texans 20.778 18.700 2.514 -1.001 Falling
Browns 17.889 18.400 2.581 -0.493 Falling
Falcons 27.000 24.900 2.673 0.359 Rising
Bengals 11.222 13.100 2.783 0.138 Rising
Vikings 21.889 23.400 2.866 1.187 Rising
Rams 23.111 27.100 2.948 1.482 Rising
Lions 6.111 11.000 3.027 -0.574 Falling
Packers 8.778 8.500 3.116 -0.332 Falling
Patriots 1.444 5.400 3.267 0.138 Rising
Bills 15.556 14.800 3.329 0.300 Rising
Saints 15.889 12.800 3.683 0.340 Rising
Cowboys 7.000 13.200 3.945 0.315 Rising
Steelers 9.000 13.700 3.965 1.016 Rising
Chargers 16.667 16.800 4.315 0.038 Rising
Ravens 15.222 9.700 4.449 0.290 Rising
49ers 16.667 13.700 4.494 -0.044 Falling
Redskins 26.111 22.100 4.757 1.304 Rising
Dolphins 12.667 7.500 4.828 0.180 Rising
Chiefs 11.889 7.500 4.998 -0.166 Falling
Eagles 4.222 9.400 5.094 -0.732 Falling
Cardinals 1.556 8.400 5.842 -0.492 Falling

Observations:

  • I really don't have much to add here. Does anyone else see anything interesting here?

Difference in Averages

Subj vs Obj
Subj Avg Obj Avg Diff. in Avg Change in Value
Cardinals 1.556 8.400 6.844 -0.702 Rising
Cowboys 7.000 13.200 6.200 1.109 Rising
Eagles 4.222 9.400 5.178 -1.822 Rising
Lions 6.111 11.000 4.889 -1.020 Rising
Steelers 9.000 13.700 4.700 3.427 Rising
Rams 23.111 27.100 3.989 2.716 Rising
Patriots 1.444 5.400 3.956 1.229 Rising
Panthers 22.000 23.900 1.900 0.536 Rising
Bengals 11.222 13.100 1.878 1.605 Rising
Vikings 21.889 23.400 1.511 0.784 Rising
Buccaneers 29.444 30.700 1.256 0.165 Rising
Browns 17.889 18.400 0.511 0.966 Rising
Chargers 16.667 16.800 0.133 -1.685 Rising
Jaguars 30.111 30.200 0.089 0.362 Rising
Packers 8.778 8.500 -0.278 -1.096 Rising
Bills 15.556 14.800 -0.756 -1.938 Rising
Seahawks 9.000 8.000 -1.000 1.727 Rising
Jets 30.222 29.200 -1.022 -0.295 Rising
Raiders 32.000 30.700 -1.300 -0.027 Rising
Colts 6.222 4.700 -1.522 1.023 Rising
Bears 23.778 22.100 -1.678 -1.223 Rising
Titans 28.111 26.200 -1.911 0.362 Rising
Texans 20.778 18.700 -2.078 0.558 Rising
Falcons 27.000 24.900 -2.100 -0.645 Rising
Broncos 3.111 1.000 -2.111 -2.111 Rising
Giants 23.333 21.200 -2.133 -0.678 Rising
49ers 16.667 13.700 -2.967 -1.421 Rising
Saints 15.889 12.800 -3.089 0.547 Rising
Redskins 26.111 22.100 -4.011 -1.829 Rising
Chiefs 11.889 7.500 -4.389 1.702 Rising
Dolphins 12.667 7.500 -5.167 -1.985 Rising
Ravens 15.222 9.700 -5.522 -0.340 Rising

Observations:

  • The Eagles' objective ranking is finally coming up to meet their subjective ranking. Still quite a bit of disparity there.
  • A disparity of nearly 5 spots or more for the top teams on this list. Are they really better than the stats indicate, or are they being set up for a fall?
  • Agreement across the board about the Chargers being mediocre.
  • Chiefs, Dolphins, and Ravens all significantly under-ranked.

Sources

Subjective Objective
ESPN Football Outsiders
Fox Team Efficiency
CBS Team Rankings
USA Today Sagarin
ProFootballTalk BeatGraphs
NFL.com Aikman Efficiency
SportingNews Pro Football Reference
Reddit Cold Hard Football Facts
Associated Press Massey
Palm Springs Canon Copiers ARGH

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