NFL Power Rankings Consensus, Week 9

There is absolutely no doubt that the Denver Broncos are the best team in the NFL right now. Is there a team that could stop them?

Well, I'm back. I know some of you actually did miss me in my absence as I got messages from you. I appreciate knowing I actually have fans.

The two-week gap in these rankings were due to my moving across three states. I got a job offer in Denver and decided to take it. So my wife, daughter, and I packed up and headed from Southern California to Denver. Don't worry, I'm not becoming a Broncos fan. I lived in Denver once before (during the vaunted Tebow years) and I resisted the urge then. I've invested too much time, energy, and tears into the Chargers to ever abandon them.

Moving on to the rankings, some interesting things have happened in the last three weeks. There's been quite a bit of movement and some teams that everyone was sure about are proving people wrong.

Notable Quotes

Phillip Rivers [sic] continues his MVP-caliber season, but injuries to the secondary have proven difficult to overcome in the last two weeks. The health of Brandon Flowers and Jason Verrett will be key going forward.

Fan reaction to the game Thursday

Not the best Thursday Night Football showing for the Chargers, who fall somewhat back to the pack with a 5-3 record, though losing to the best team in the league on its home field isn't the worst thing ever. At the same time, this marks three unimpressive performances in a row for coordinator John Pagano's defense: Derek Carr tossing four touchdown passes, the Chiefs holding the ball for nearly 40 minutes, and then Peyton Manning just carving up the secondary.

Division Averages

At this rate, it's only a matter of time before the AFC West overtakes the NFC West. And the NFC South? Woof.

Stock Rising

The Patriots were all but written off a few weeks ago. Now they're surging back up the ranks. The Chiefs started the season off slow, but now they're hitting their stride.

Stock Falling

The Giants beat out the Chargers by the slimmest of margins. No, seriously, the Giants dropped literally by just 0.001 more spots than the Chargers on average. Thankfully it's just enough for Eli's group to take the "top" spot away from San Diego.

It is interesting to see that 4 of the 5 teams on this list all dropped by at least 6 spots. Only 2 teams rose more than 6 spots in the same time frame.

Subjective Average

	Subjective
	ESPN	Fox	CBS	USA	SI	PFT	NFL	SN	SBN	Reddit	AP		Average		Change in Value
Broncos	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1		1.000		1.273
Cardinals	2	2	2	2	3	2	2	2	2	2	2		2.091		6.273
Patriots	3	4	3	3	2	5	3	3	3	3	3		3.182		8.091
Cowboys	4	5	4	5	6	3	5	5	5	4	4		4.546		3.545
Eagles	5	3	5	4	4	4	4	7	6	6	5		4.818		1.000
Lions	6	9	6	10	5	6	9	4	4	8	6		6.636		7.455
Colts	9	8	9	6	10	9	8	6	15	5	7		8.364		-1.909
Chargers	8	6	11	12	11	7	7	11	9	7	8		8.818		-6.272
Packers	7	15	7	11	7	8	10	8	7	11	9		9.091		-0.818
Seahawks	10	7	8	9	9	11	6	10	12	10	10		9.273		-8.000
Ravens	13	11	12	7	14	10	15	14	10	9	14		11.727		-0.363
49ers	11	14	13	8	13	13	11	9	13	13	11		11.727		-4.181
Bengals	12	16	10	13	12	12	14	12	8	12	12		12.091		-6.636
Chiefs	15	10	14	15	8	16	12	15	11	14	15		13.182		4.818
Steelers	14	17	16	14	16	15	13	13	14	15	13		14.546		2.363
Bills	16	13	18	16	15	14	16	16	16	16	16		15.636		2.364
Dolphins	18	12	17	17	17	19	17	20	18	17	17		17.182		4.818
Saints	17	18	22	18	18	18	20	18	20	21	18		18.909		1.727
Browns	19	21	21	21	19	17	18	21	17	20	20		19.455		2.454
Texans	21	20	19	19	20	21	19	19	19	19	19		19.546		-1.637
Panthers	20	22	20	20	21	20	23	17	23	18	21		20.455		-5.909
Giants	22	19	15	23	23	23	21	22	21	22	22		21.182		-6.727
Bears	23	24	23	22	24	22	24	23	24	23	24		23.273		-2.637
Redskins	24	25	25	24	25	24	22	24	22	24	23		23.818		3.546
Vikings	25	23	24	26	22	25	25	25	25	26	25		24.636		0.182
Rams	27	26	26	25	26	26	26	26	27	27	26		26.182		0.727
Falcons	26	27	27	27	27	27	27	27	26	25	27		26.636		-4.090
Titans	28	28	28	28	29	28	28	28	30	28	28		28.273		1.363
Jets	30	29	31	29	31	30	29	30	28	29	30		29.636		-1.181
Buccaneers	29	30	29	30	28	31	30	31	29	30	31		29.818		-2.363
Jaguars	31	31	30	31	30	29	31	29	31	31	29		30.273		1.000
Raiders	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32		32.000		-0.273

Observations:

• The Broncos are the unanimous pick for best team in the league.
• The Cardinals are a near unanimous pick for the second-best team.
• Raiders unanimous pick for worst team in the league.
• It is nice to see the Chargers still in the top 10. I know it doesn't feel like it right now, but this team is still pretty good.
• Oh CBS, never change.

Subjective Standard Deviation

	Subjective
	ESPN	Fox	CBS	USA	SI	PFT	NFL	SN	SBN	Reddit	AP		STD DEV		Change in Value
Broncos	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1		0.000		-0.445
Raiders	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32		0.000		-0.445
Cardinals	2	2	2	2	3	2	2	2	2	2	2		0.288		-2.644
Rams	27	26	26	25	26	26	26	26	27	27	26		0.575		-0.508
Titans	28	28	28	28	29	28	28	28	30	28	28		0.617		0.136
Falcons	26	27	27	27	27	27	27	27	26	25	27		0.643		-0.916
Patriots	3	4	3	3	2	5	3	3	3	3	3		0.716		-1.195
Bears	23	24	23	22	24	22	24	23	24	23	24		0.750		-1.394
Cowboys	4	5	4	5	6	3	5	5	5	4	4		0.782		-1.193
Texans	21	20	19	19	20	21	19	19	19	19	19		0.782		-0.597
Jaguars	31	31	30	31	30	29	31	29	31	31	29		0.862		0.417
Jets	30	29	31	29	31	30	29	30	28	29	30		0.881		-0.556
Buccaneers	29	30	29	30	28	31	30	31	29	30	31		0.936		-0.297
Redskins	24	25	25	24	25	24	22	24	22	24	23		1.029		-0.039
Eagles	5	3	5	4	4	4	4	7	6	6	5		1.113		-0.472
Vikings	25	23	24	26	22	25	25	25	25	26	25		1.150		-0.116
Bills	16	13	18	16	15	14	16	16	16	16	16		1.226		-0.819
Steelers	14	17	16	14	16	15	13	13	14	15	13		1.305		-1.899
Browns	19	21	21	21	19	17	18	21	17	20	20		1.499		-0.231
Saints	17	18	22	18	18	18	20	18	20	21	18		1.505		-0.415
Seahawks	10	7	8	9	9	11	6	10	12	10	10		1.656		1.211
Panthers	20	22	20	20	21	20	23	17	23	18	21		1.777		0.218
49ers	11	14	13	8	13	13	11	9	13	13	11		1.814		0.143
Dolphins	18	12	17	17	17	19	17	20	18	17	17		1.898		-0.696
Bengals	12	16	10	13	12	12	14	12	8	12	12		1.929		0.492
Lions	6	9	6	10	5	6	9	4	4	8	6		1.967		0.403
Chargers	8	6	11	12	11	7	7	11	9	7	8		1.992		1.004
Giants	22	19	15	23	23	23	21	22	21	22	22		2.249		0.144
Packers	7	15	7	11	7	8	10	8	7	11	9		2.391		0.908
Ravens	13	11	12	7	14	10	15	14	10	9	14		2.416		1.535
Chiefs	15	10	14	15	8	16	12	15	11	14	15		2.443		0.227
Colts	9	8	9	6	10	9	8	6	15	5	7		2.568		0.420

Observations:

• Like I said, unanimous consensus of the Broncos being the best, and Raiders being the worst. AFC West, represent!
• Chargers fairly consistent in their ranking, being under 2 standard deviations. 3 weeks ago, 10 teams had a higher deviation. There's more consistency across the board coming in.
• CBS is an outlier on the Giants. SBNation is an outlier on the Colts. Are they crazy, or rightfully going against the crowd? Hopefully the objective stats can help shed light.

Objective Average

	Objective
	FO	TE	TR	SAG	BG	Aikman	PFR	CHFF	Massey	ARGH	538		Average		Change in Value
Broncos	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1		1.000		1.546
Colts	7	3	6	5	6	5	3	5	8	7	9		5.818		3.546
Patriots	12	15	3	3	7	6	6	3	4	4	2		5.909		6.091
Ravens	2	10	4	11	13	2	4	4	11	3	8		6.546		1.727
Seahawks	3	7	2	2	11	12	9	10	7	6	3		6.546		-4.182
Chiefs	4	6	10	6	21	4	2	2	3	8	12		7.091		7.455
Cardinals	18	25	11	8	2	9	7	17	2	2	5		9.636		2.182
Cowboys	11	8	15	15	5	3	10	12	10	10	7		9.636		1.728
Packers	5	4	7	9	17	7	13	6	14	13	14		9.909		-2.363
49ers	20	12	5	4	3	21	12	13	6	12	4		10.182		-2.909
Chargers	10	19	8	10	22	13	5	14	5	5	6		10.636		-7.545
Eagles	6	23	12	7	4	24	8	18	9	9	10		11.818		4.091
Bengals	14	5	13	14	9	16	17	11	12	14	11		12.364		-6.728
Lions	13	11	14	13	12	10	16	9	13	11	16		12.546		-0.455
Dolphins	9	2	18	16	25	15	11	8	16	16	18		14.000		4.000
Saints	15	14	9	12	16	11	20	19	19	20	13		15.273		3.363
Steelers	8	18	19	18	8	18	19	16	17	18	15		15.818		1.728
Bills	16	16	21	19	23	19	15	7	15	15	19		16.818		-0.909
Texans	21	22	16	17	10	8	14	20	18	17	23		16.909		1.727
Browns	17	13	23	23	15	14	21	15	22	21	25		19.000		2.818
Giants	22	24	17	20	14	22	18	21	20	19	20		19.727		-7.091
Redskins	23	9	25	24	19	20	22	22	24	23	27		21.636		1.910
Panthers	26	17	20	22	18	26	24	27	21	22	17		21.818		-2.545
Bears	24	21	24	21	27	17	23	26	23	24	21		22.818		-2.727
Falcons	19	30	22	25	29	23	25	24	28	26	26		25.182		-5.636
Vikings	30	27	26	26	24	25	26	23	25	25	22		25.364		0.091
Titans	25	20	28	28	20	30	27	25	27	28	28		26.000		-0.273
Rams	29	29	27	27	26	27	30	30	26	27	24		27.455		-0.819
Jets	28	28	29	29	30	31	28	28	29	29	29		28.909		-0.182
Jaguars	31	26	32	32	28	28	31	29	31	31	31		30.000		1.636
Raiders	27	31	31	31	32	29	29	32	32	32	32		30.727		-0.091
Buccaneers	32	32	30	30	31	32	32	31	30	30	30		30.909		-1.182

Observations:

• Oh good, the Broncos are unanimous here too.
• To answer our question from above, it seems SB Nation and CBS are crazy.
• The Buccaneers edge out the Raiders as the worst team in league in the Objective list. Move over Jacksonville, there's a new team stinking things up in Florida!
• BeatGraphs gets flack sometimes for being an outlier on these charts, it seems people want to see consistency and model agreement. BeatGraphs is just one data point, and it's used to basically measure a team's strength of schedule. There are enough other data points that keeps BG from completely messing up the charts.

Objective Standard Deviation

	Objective
	FO	TE	TR	SAG	BG	Aikman	PFR	CHFF	Massey	ARGH	538		STD DEV		Change in Value
Broncos	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1		0.000		-1.559
Jets	28	28	29	29	30	31	28	28	29	29	29		0.900		-0.520
Buccaneers	32	32	30	30	31	32	32	31	30	30	30		0.900		-0.455
Raiders	27	31	31	31	32	29	29	32	32	32	32		1.601		0.830
Rams	29	29	27	27	26	27	30	30	26	27	24		1.777		-0.367
Colts	7	3	6	5	6	5	3	5	8	7	9		1.800		-2.318
Jaguars	31	26	32	32	28	28	31	29	31	31	31		1.859		0.978
Vikings	30	27	26	26	24	25	26	23	25	25	22		2.012		0.136
Lions	13	11	14	13	12	10	16	9	13	11	16		2.148		-1.167
Giants	22	24	17	20	14	22	18	21	20	19	20		2.597		-0.304
Bears	24	21	24	21	27	17	23	26	23	24	21		2.622		-0.982
Falcons	19	30	22	25	29	23	25	24	28	26	26		3.040		-1.579
Titans	25	20	28	28	20	30	27	25	27	28	28		3.133		-0.562
Bengals	14	5	13	14	9	16	17	11	12	14	11		3.199		0.932
Panthers	26	17	20	22	18	26	24	27	21	22	17		3.459		-2.542
Seahawks	3	7	2	2	11	12	9	10	7	6	3		3.500		1.780
Cowboys	11	8	15	15	5	3	10	12	10	10	7		3.575		0.237
Saints	15	14	9	12	16	11	20	19	19	20	13		3.670		-1.660
Steelers	8	18	19	18	8	18	19	16	17	18	15		3.857		-0.013
Ravens	2	10	4	11	13	2	4	4	11	3	8		3.917		0.869
Patriots	12	15	3	3	7	6	6	3	4	4	2		3.919		-1.424
Bills	16	16	21	19	23	19	15	7	15	15	19		4.019		-0.503
Browns	17	13	23	23	15	14	21	15	22	21	25		4.068		0.404
Packers	5	4	7	9	17	7	13	6	14	13	14		4.209		1.036
Redskins	23	9	25	24	19	20	22	22	24	23	27		4.518		-1.193
Texans	21	22	16	17	10	8	14	20	18	17	23		4.542		0.513
Chiefs	4	6	10	6	21	4	2	2	3	8	12		5.368		2.083
Chargers	10	19	8	10	22	13	5	14	5	5	6		5.564		4.400
Dolphins	9	2	18	16	25	15	11	8	16	16	18		5.878		0.979
49ers	20	12	5	4	3	21	12	13	6	12	4		6.058		2.102
Eagles	6	23	12	7	4	24	8	18	9	9	10		6.492		-0.229
Cardinals	18	25	11	8	2	9	7	17	2	2	5		7.189		-1.537

Observations:

• Continuing my point from above about BeatGraphs, it's not like they never agree with the other models. For instance, the Broncos are the best on all models. And BG agrees with the rankings of the next 8 teams after the Broncos.
• The Cardinals are all over the map here. Some sites have them at 2nd, others not as high. Football Outsiders dove into this deeper this week. Basically, the Cardinals have been terrible on first and second downs, and then phenomenal on third down. So good even, that FBO calls their success on third down "unsustainable."
• Again, San Diego is a little less consistent than other teams.

Overall Average

	Subj vs Obj
	Subj Avg	Obj Avg		Average		Change in Value
Broncos	1.000	1.000		1.000		1.409
Patriots	3.182	5.909		4.545		7.091
Cardinals	2.091	9.636		5.864		4.227
Colts	8.364	5.818		7.091		0.818
Cowboys	4.546	9.636		7.091		2.636
Seahawks	9.273	6.546		7.909		-6.091
Eagles	4.818	11.818		8.318		2.546
Ravens	11.727	6.546		9.136		0.682
Packers	9.091	9.909		9.500		-1.591
Lions	6.636	12.546		9.591		3.500
Chargers	8.818	10.636		9.727		-6.909
Chiefs	13.182	7.091		10.136		6.137
49ers	11.727	10.182		10.955		-3.546
Bengals	12.091	12.364		12.227		-6.682
Steelers	14.546	15.818		15.182		2.045
Dolphins	17.182	14.000		15.591		4.409
Bills	15.636	16.818		16.227		0.728
Saints	18.909	15.273		17.091		2.545
Texans	19.546	16.909		18.227		0.046
Browns	19.455	19.000		19.227		2.637
Giants	21.182	19.727		20.455		-6.910
Panthers	20.455	21.818		21.136		-4.227
Redskins	23.818	21.636		22.727		2.728
Bears	23.273	22.818		23.045		-2.681
Vikings	24.636	25.364		25.000		0.136
Falcons	26.636	25.182		25.909		-4.863
Rams	26.182	27.455		26.818		-0.045
Titans	28.273	26.000		27.136		0.546
Jets	29.636	28.909		29.273		-0.682
Jaguars	30.273	30.000		30.136		1.319
Buccaneers	29.818	30.909		30.364		-1.773
Raiders	32.000	30.727		31.364		-0.182

Observations:

• I think it's pretty obvious that there's a major gap between the Broncos and the rest of the league. Is there any team capable of stopping them the rest of the way?
• Patriots move up past the Cardinals in the joint board.
• Colts and Cowboys tied.
• Pretty sharp delineation at the top 14 teams and the rest of the league.
• Raiders beat out the Buccaneers overall to take over the bottom spot.

Overall Standard Deviation

	Subj vs Obj
	Subj Avg	Obj Avg		STD DEV		Change in Value
Broncos	1.000	1.000		0.000		-1.154
Jets	29.636	28.909		0.962		-0.473
Buccaneers	29.818	30.909		1.068		-0.655
Raiders	32.000	30.727		1.298		0.465
Jaguars	30.273	30.000		1.455		0.733
Rams	26.182	27.455		1.466		-0.238
Vikings	24.636	25.364		1.679		0.047
Bears	23.273	22.818		1.942		-1.036
Falcons	26.636	25.182		2.314		-1.446
Titans	28.273	26.000		2.528		-0.753
Giants	21.182	19.727		2.536		-0.156
Colts	8.364	5.818		2.557		-1.035
Bengals	12.091	12.364		2.645		0.745
Panthers	20.455	21.818		2.833		-2.148
Steelers	14.546	15.818		2.949		-0.618
Bills	15.636	16.818		3.029		-0.633
Seahawks	9.273	6.546		3.059		1.689
Browns	19.455	19.000		3.074		0.209
Patriots	3.182	5.909		3.129		-0.900
Saints	18.909	15.273		3.343		-0.786
Packers	9.091	9.909		3.448		0.945
Redskins	23.818	21.636		3.453		-1.077
Texans	19.546	16.909		3.515		0.482
Lions	6.636	12.546		3.601		0.823
Cowboys	4.546	9.636		3.630		0.436
Ravens	11.727	6.546		4.159		1.435
Chargers	8.818	10.636		4.277		3.164
49ers	11.727	10.182		4.538		1.498
Dolphins	17.182	14.000		4.648		0.248
Chiefs	13.182	7.091		5.164		1.872
Eagles	4.818	11.818		5.826		-1.195
Cardinals	2.091	9.636		6.334		-0.401

Observations:

• Very impressive that every single one of the 22 rankings has the Broncos at the top. It's rare to have 100% consensus.
• Much more consensus overall of the teams in the bottom third of the league than the top third.
• Remember when the Saints were a force to be reckoned with?

Difference in Averages

	Subj vs Obj
	Subj Avg	Obj Avg		Diff. in Avg		Change in Value
Cardinals	2.091	9.636		7.546		4.091
Eagles	4.818	11.818		7.000		-3.091
Lions	6.636	12.546		5.909		7.909
Cowboys	4.546	9.636		5.091		1.818
Patriots	3.182	5.909		2.727		2.000
Chargers	8.818	10.636		1.818		1.273
Panthers	20.455	21.818		1.364		-3.363
Rams	26.182	27.455		1.273		1.546
Steelers	14.546	15.818		1.273		0.637
Bills	15.636	16.818		1.182		3.273
Buccaneers	29.818	30.909		1.091		-1.182
Packers	9.091	9.909		0.818		1.545
Vikings	24.636	25.364		0.727		0.091
Bengals	12.091	12.364		0.273		0.091
Broncos	1.000	1.000		0.000		-0.273
Jaguars	30.273	30.000		-0.273		-0.637
Bears	23.273	22.818		-0.455		0.091
Browns	19.455	19.000		-0.455		-0.364
Jets	29.636	28.909		-0.727		-1.000
Raiders	32.000	30.727		-1.273		-0.182
Giants	21.182	19.727		-1.455		0.363
Falcons	26.636	25.182		-1.455		1.545
49ers	11.727	10.182		-1.546		-1.273
Redskins	23.818	21.636		-2.182		1.636
Titans	28.273	26.000		-2.273		1.636
Colts	8.364	5.818		-2.545		-5.454
Texans	19.546	16.909		-2.636		-3.363
Seahawks	9.273	6.546		-2.727		-3.818
Dolphins	17.182	14.000		-3.182		0.818
Saints	18.909	15.273		-3.636		-1.636
Ravens	11.727	6.546		-5.182		-2.091
Chiefs	13.182	7.091		-6.091		-2.636

Observations:

• The Cardinals, Eagles, Lions and Cowboys are all significantly ranked higher than the stats indicate they should be. Is there any doubt that subjective rankers base most of their rankings just on W-L records?
• 6 of the 8 teams most "over-ranked" are in the NFC, including the 4 most over-ranked.
• Chargers are "over-ranked" by under 2 spots, hardly enough to worry about.
• 6 of the 8 teams most "under-ranked" are in the AFC.
• Seems pundits are sleeping on the Chiefs and Ravens.

Sources

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