NFL Power Ranking Consensus, Week 5

With four weeks in the NFL season completed, a clearer picture of all 32 teams begins to come into focus.

We've reached the quarter pole in the season. I can't believe four weeks of NFL football are already in the books, and the fifth week gets under way shortly. Do we have a better view of where teams rank after just 4 games? For the most part, yes.

I don't know about you guys, but I'm a Chargers fan through and through. Always have been, always will be. I stuck with them through the bad years, I even attended a few games during the 1-15 season. I also know what it's like to be a San Diego sports fan, it's hard to believe what you're seeing. But let me tell you that the Chargers look like a top 5 team, and they're for real so far, injuries and all. It's scary to think how they'll play when they get some key players back.

Notable Quotes

Phillip [sic] Rivers is playing his way into the MVP discussion. This week, he showed off another aspect of his arsenal going 11-of-15 on passes traveling 10-or-more yards downfield, with three of those resulting in touchdowns. Key free-agent addition Brandon Flowers continues to look more like the Pro Bowler he was in 2011, and the defense has taken a major step forward overall.

With another dazzling, near-perfect performance out of Philip Rivers -- who might be playing better than any other quarterback in the NFL right now -- the Chargers move up and into the top five with an easy win over the struggling Jaguars. San Diego's offense, particularly Rivers, picked up where it left off last year despite injuries to the top two running backs, and the defense is better than expected. This is a hot team right now.

Don't look now, but the San Diego Chargers are legit.

Wins over the Seattle Seahawks and Buffalo Bills are quality wins, and the team handled the lowly Jacksonville Jaguars like you would expect a quality team to do. Even their Week 1 loss to the Arizona Cardinals (an undefeated team) was only by a single point.

With a top-five defense and Philip Rivers playing as well as any quarterback in the NFL, the Chargers can overcome injuries at running back. That might be an issue moving ahead, but their depth in the backfield and the big plays from Keenan Allen and other receivers look to be good enough so far to overcome injuries.

A home game against the New York Jets is waiting in Week 5, and so is another chance for the Chargers to continue their move up the rankings.

Division Averages

Stock Rising

Stock Falling

Subjective Average

	Subjective
Seahawks	1	1	3	1	2	1	4	1	1	1	1	1		1.500		0.136
Bengals	2	2	1	2	1	2	1	2	3	2	3	2		1.917		-0.008
Broncos	3	3	4	3	3	3	5	3	2	3	2	3		3.083		0.190
Cardinals	4	5	2	4	4	4	2	4	4	4	5	4		3.833		0.622
Chargers	5	4	5	5	5	7	3	8	5	5	4	5		5.083		1.553
Ravens	7	7	6	8	6	5	7	5	6	8	7	6		6.500		2.591
Eagles	6	10	7	6	7	6	6	6	9	7	6	8		7.000		-2.727
Lions	8	6	8	9	8	8	8	9	7	6	9	7		7.750		4.705
Colts	11	9	11	7	9	10	10	7	18	9	8	10		9.917		3.810
49ers	9	8	9	11	11	11	11	10	8	10	16	9		10.250		5.023
Packers	12	11	12	12	13	9	9	11	12	11	12	11		11.250		4.932
Cowboys	10	13	10	10	10	13	12	14	11	12	10	12		11.417		7.492
Patriots	16	18	18	13	15	19	18	12	15	15	11	13		15.250		-7.977
Chiefs	14	14	17	18	12	16	15	21	14	17	17	14		15.750		7.432
Bears	15	21	15	15	16	18	14	17	16	13	15	16		15.917		-5.826
Texans	13	17	13	14	14	14	21	15	13	18	25	15		16.000		5.455
Steelers	18	20	19	19	17	15	16	13	10	20	19	17		16.917		-5.553
Falcons	17	22	14	16	19	12	19	19	19	16	13	20		17.167		-6.076
Panthers	20	12	21	17	23	20	20	16	17	14	18	18		18.000		-7.091
Giants	19	15	16	21	18	25	13	20	20	19	24	19		19.083		5.281
Dolphins	22	16	22	20	22	24	17	22	24	21	23	22		21.250		3.750
Saints	21	25	26	24	21	17	22	18	23	23	14	21		21.250		-6.341
Vikings	24	19	20	23	24	26	25	23	25	24	20	23		23.000		3.818
Bills	23	23	23	22	25	21	23	24	21	22	26	24		23.083		-5.537
Browns	25	24	24	25	20	22	24	25	22	25	22	25		23.583		-1.128
Jets	26	26	27	26	26	23	26	26	27	26	21	26		25.500		-4.773
Redskins	27	29	29	27	29	29	27	27	28	27	27	28		27.833		-3.560
Rams	30	28	25	28	28	27	28	28	29	28	29	29		28.083		-0.265
Buccaneers	29	27	28	29	27	28	29	30	26	30	28	27		28.167		3.106
Titans	28	30	30	30	30	30	30	29	30	29	31	30		29.750		-1.750
Jaguars	31	31	31	31	32	31	31	31	32	31	30	32		31.167		0.197
Raiders	32	32	32	32	31	32	32	32	31	32	32	31		31.750		-1.477

Observations:

• Interesting that each of the top 4 teams on the list had byes this week, yet they moved around in the subjective rankings.
• Chargers solidly holding down that number 5 spot. Suddenly that 1-point lost to the Cardinals doesn't look so bad, based on these rankings
• Ravens have surged. Good thing the Chargers don't face them this ye ... ahh crap.
• SB Nation with the Colts at 18th? Really?
• Bleacher Report with the 49ers at 16th? Really?
• Patriots got obliterated on Monday night, and many of the rankings reflect that. But some of the rankers are holding out hope for New England to pull it out.

Subjective Standard Deviation

	Subjective
Raiders	32	32	32	32	31	32	32	32	31	32	32	31		0.433		-0.429
Jaguars	31	31	31	31	32	31	31	31	32	31	30	32		0.553		-0.090
Bengals	2	2	1	2	1	2	1	2	3	2	3	2		0.640		-0.028
Titans	28	30	30	30	30	30	30	29	30	29	31	30		0.722		-0.323
Broncos	3	3	4	3	3	3	5	3	2	3	2	3		0.759		-0.377
Redskins	27	29	29	27	29	29	27	27	28	27	27	28		0.898		-0.645
Cardinals	4	5	2	4	4	4	2	4	4	4	5	4		0.898		-0.407
Ravens	7	7	6	8	6	5	7	5	6	8	7	6		0.957		-0.548
Seahawks	1	1	3	1	2	1	4	1	1	1	1	1		0.957		-0.269
Lions	8	6	8	9	8	8	8	9	7	6	9	7		1.010		-1.340
Packers	12	11	12	12	13	9	9	11	12	11	12	11		1.164		-0.239
Rams	30	28	25	28	28	27	28	28	29	28	29	29		1.187		-0.216
Buccaneers	29	27	28	29	27	28	29	30	26	30	28	27		1.213		0.596
Chargers	5	4	5	5	5	7	3	8	5	5	4	5		1.256		-1.051
Eagles	6	10	7	6	7	6	6	6	9	7	6	8		1.291		0.329
Cowboys	10	13	10	10	10	13	12	14	11	12	10	12		1.382		-0.123
Bills	23	23	23	22	25	21	23	24	21	22	26	24		1.441		-1.022
Browns	25	24	24	25	20	22	24	25	22	25	22	25		1.605		-0.456
Jets	26	26	27	26	26	23	26	26	27	26	21	26		1.658		0.175
Bears	15	21	15	15	16	18	14	17	16	13	15	16		1.977		-0.298
49ers	9	8	9	11	11	11	11	10	8	10	16	9		2.046		-0.047
Vikings	24	19	20	23	24	26	25	23	25	24	20	23		2.121		0.175
Chiefs	14	14	17	18	12	16	15	21	14	17	17	14		2.314		0.147
Dolphins	22	16	22	20	22	24	17	22	24	21	23	22		2.385		0.734
Patriots	16	18	18	13	15	19	18	12	15	15	11	13		2.521		0.811
Colts	11	9	11	7	9	10	10	7	18	9	8	10		2.753		0.156
Steelers	18	20	19	19	17	15	16	13	10	20	19	17		2.900		0.262
Falcons	17	22	14	16	19	12	19	19	19	16	13	20		2.911		-0.026
Panthers	20	12	21	17	23	20	20	16	17	14	18	18		2.944		0.669
Giants	19	15	16	21	18	25	13	20	20	19	24	19		3.278		1.092
Saints	21	25	26	24	21	17	22	18	23	23	14	21		3.320		0.929
Texans	13	17	13	14	14	14	21	15	13	18	25	15		3.559		0.884

Observations:

• The 5 most consistently-ranked teams are AFC teams. Guess it's pretty easy to figure out who the best and worst teams are in the AFC.
• Bears actually have a very consistent ranking ~15th, Fox just throws a wrench in it all with a 23rd ranking.
• Giants, Saints, and Texans all in the "difficult to figure out category." Maybe looking at the objective rankings can help ...

Objective Average

	Objective
Bengals	3	1	2	3	2	1	1	1	4	2	5		2.273		1.000
Seahawks	2	2	4	1	7	9	3	2	1	1	1		3.000		0.636
Broncos	1	4	6	2	12	12	6	10	3	5	2		5.727		1.091
Chargers	6	8	3	5	3	15	4	4	5	6	4		5.727		1.364
Cardinals	12	10	1	4	1	8	2	16	2	3	6		5.909		1.727
Ravens	7	9	5	7	4	2	5	7	8	4	8		6.000		5.091
Lions	10	3	9	8	6	7	11	5	11	7	17		8.546		5.636
49ers	11	19	7	6	14	5	12	6	6	8	3		8.818		2.273
Colts	18	17	14	10	20	4	7	3	12	14	10		11.727		5.364
Cowboys	19	18	10	15	19	3	13	8	7	10	9		11.909		4.818
Giants	17	11	8	17	8	11	8	9	15	9	18		11.909		9.727
Packers	4	5	11	9	11	18	15	17	13	12	16		11.909		6.091
Eagles	8	28	12	12	17	26	17	19	9	11	11		15.455		-2.273
Chiefs	20	14	16	14	25	13	9	25	10	17	12		15.909		4.818
Falcons	5	22	22	16	15	10	10	18	22	15	22		16.091		-5.000
Bears	9	20	17	18	13	6	21	27	17	20	19		17.000		-4.818
Texans	24	21	13	19	9	14	16	13	20	13	25		17.000		5.000
Bills	14	24	15	21	10	22	14	12	24	21	24		18.273		-3.637
Saints	16	7	25	11	21	24	19	23	21	22	15		18.546		-8.364
Patriots	15	27	24	13	28	23	25	14	14	19	7		19.000		-8.091
Steelers	13	23	19	22	16	21	23	20	18	24	13		19.273		-6.637
Panthers	25	25	18	20	5	31	27	24	16	18	14		20.273		-7.637
Dolphins	21	6	26	25	26	17	24	15	23	23	21		20.636		1.273
Browns	22	16	21	24	18	19	18	11	27	26	29		21.000		-0.182
Vikings	26	26	23	23	29	20	22	21	19	16	20		22.273		3.273
Redskins	23	13	29	27	23	16	26	22	29	27	30		24.091		-5.364
Titans	29	15	20	29	24	30	20	28	25	28	26		24.909		-4.091
Jets	27	12	30	28	22	25	28	26	30	29	27		25.818		-1.545
Rams	28	30	27	26	30	27	29	30	26	25	23		27.364		-0.728
Buccaneers	31	32	28	30	31	29	31	29	28	30	28		29.727		0.091
Raiders	30	29	32	31	32	28	30	31	31	31	31		30.546		-0.546
Jaguars	32	31	31	32	27	32	32	32	32	32	32		31.364		-0.364

Observations:

• Bengals just edge out the Seahawks to take the Objective crown.
• Broncos and Chargers actually have the same overall objective average. The Chargers are on par with the Broncos!
• The Ravens are surging in the Objective list as well, so they've actually been playing well, and not just appearing to play well
• Cowboys, Giants, and Packers all have the same 11.909 average.
• Jacksonville Jaguars: not playing great football.

Objective Standard Deviation

	Objective
Raiders	30	29	32	31	32	28	30	31	31	31	31		1.157		0.112
Bengals	3	1	2	3	2	1	1	1	4	2	5		1.286		-2.258
Buccaneers	31	32	28	30	31	29	31	29	28	30	28		1.355		-1.161
Jaguars	32	31	31	32	27	32	32	32	32	32	32		1.432		-0.219
Ravens	7	9	5	7	4	2	5	7	8	4	8		2.045		-4.272
Rams	28	30	27	26	30	27	29	30	26	25	23		2.186		-3.195
Seahawks	2	2	4	1	7	9	3	2	1	1	1		2.558		-0.697
Chargers	6	8	3	5	3	15	4	4	5	6	4		3.250		-0.783
Vikings	26	26	23	23	29	20	22	21	19	16	20		3.519		0.346
Lions	10	3	9	8	6	7	11	5	11	7	17		3.577		-1.319
Steelers	13	23	19	22	16	21	23	20	18	24	13		3.720		-1.366
Broncos	1	4	6	2	12	12	6	10	3	5	2		3.792		-0.676
Giants	17	11	8	17	8	11	8	9	15	9	18		3.848		-0.248
Packers	4	5	11	9	11	18	15	17	13	12	16		4.379		-2.130
49ers	11	19	7	6	14	5	12	6	6	8	3		4.489		-2.259
Titans	29	15	20	29	24	30	20	28	25	28	26		4.542		-2.344
Cardinals	12	10	1	4	1	8	2	16	2	3	6		4.776		0.119
Jets	27	12	30	28	22	25	28	26	30	29	27		4.896		1.789
Texans	24	21	13	19	9	14	16	13	20	13	25		4.899		-0.578
Browns	22	16	21	24	18	19	18	11	27	26	29		5.063		-2.563
Bills	14	24	15	21	10	22	14	12	24	21	24		5.065		-1.814
Cowboys	19	18	10	15	19	3	13	8	7	10	9		5.071		-0.273
Chiefs	20	14	16	14	25	13	9	25	10	17	12		5.195		0.276
Redskins	23	13	29	27	23	16	26	22	29	27	30		5.213		-4.417
Colts	18	17	14	10	20	4	7	3	12	14	10		5.310		0.748
Saints	16	7	25	11	21	24	19	23	21	22	15		5.433		0.556
Bears	9	20	17	18	13	6	21	27	17	20	19		5.560		-0.483
Falcons	5	22	22	16	15	10	10	18	22	15	22		5.583		-0.862
Dolphins	21	6	26	25	26	17	24	15	23	23	21		5.709		0.933
Eagles	8	28	12	12	17	26	17	19	9	11	11		6.373		0.687
Patriots	15	27	24	13	28	23	25	14	14	19	7		6.523		-1.761
Panthers	25	25	18	20	5	31	27	24	16	18	14		6.877		1.702

Observations:

• Take Aikman ratings out, and the Chargers are a solid #5, consistently. Their red zone efficiency is what hurts their ranking on Aikman's list.
• Eagles, Patriots, Panthers all have more questions than answers right now. No real consensus on where they land.

Overall Average

	Subj vs Obj
Bengals	1.917	2.273		2.095		0.496
Seahawks	1.500	3.000		2.250		0.386
Broncos	3.083	5.727		4.405		0.640
Cardinals	3.833	5.909		4.871		1.174
Chargers	5.083	5.727		5.405		1.459
Ravens	6.500	6.000		6.250		3.841
Lions	7.750	8.546		8.148		5.170
49ers	10.250	8.818		9.534		3.648
Colts	9.917	11.727		10.822		4.587
Eagles	7.000	15.455		11.227		-2.500
Packers	11.250	11.909		11.580		5.511
Cowboys	11.417	11.909		11.663		6.155
Giants	19.083	11.909		15.496		7.504
Chiefs	15.750	15.909		15.830		6.125
Bears	15.917	17.000		16.458		-5.322
Texans	16.000	17.000		16.500		5.227
Falcons	17.167	16.091		16.629		-5.538
Patriots	15.250	19.000		17.125		-8.034
Steelers	16.917	19.273		18.095		-6.095
Panthers	18.000	20.273		19.136		-7.363
Saints	21.250	18.546		19.898		-7.353
Bills	23.083	18.273		20.678		-4.587
Dolphins	21.250	20.636		20.943		2.512
Browns	23.583	21.000		22.292		-0.656
Vikings	23.000	22.273		22.636		3.546
Jets	25.500	25.818		25.659		-3.159
Redskins	27.833	24.091		25.962		-4.462
Titans	29.750	24.909		27.330		-2.921
Rams	28.083	27.364		27.723		-0.496
Buccaneers	28.167	29.727		28.947		1.598
Raiders	31.750	30.546		31.148		-1.012
Jaguars	31.167	31.364		31.265		-0.083

Observations:

• For some reason, I like to see where clusters emerge; it's fun to group teams together I guess. In this instance, the Bengals and Seahawks are the elite; Broncos, Cardinals, Chargers, and Ravens in the extremely good category; and so on.
• Pretty sharp drop off from the Cowboys to the Giants
• Overall, a good distribution of AFC and NFC teams, no one conference seems to be better than the other right now. Maybe a slight edge to the NFC, but it's not dominating.
• After a decade of dominance, it is very odd to see the Patriots so far down.
• The Chargers' next opponent - the Jets - is not very high in the rankings. Don't let that fool you, they're a very tough match-up every time.
• After an initial round of excitement, the party is over for Minnesota it seems.

Overall Standard Deviation

	Subj vs Obj
Bengals	1.917	2.273		1.018		-1.622
Raiders	31.750	30.546		1.049		0.082
Jaguars	31.167	31.364		1.072		-0.194
Buccaneers	28.167	29.727		1.501		-0.470
Ravens	6.500	6.000		1.594		-3.105
Rams	28.083	27.364		1.775		-2.201
Seahawks	1.500	3.000		2.042		-0.613
Chargers	5.083	5.727		2.445		-0.848
Lions	7.750	8.546		2.609		-1.327
Vikings	23.000	22.273		2.898		0.190
Broncos	3.083	5.727		2.987		-0.724
Packers	11.250	11.909		3.160		-1.635
49ers	10.250	8.818		3.512		-1.904
Steelers	16.917	19.273		3.520		-0.581
Cardinals	3.833	5.909		3.522		-0.250
Jets	25.500	25.818		3.595		0.584
Cowboys	11.417	11.909		3.655		-0.420
Browns	23.583	21.000		3.908		-1.737
Chiefs	15.750	15.909		3.963		-0.031
Titans	29.750	24.909		3.998		-2.097
Redskins	27.833	24.091		4.112		-3.321
Bears	15.917	17.000		4.137		-0.547
Colts	9.917	11.727		4.273		0.198
Texans	16.000	17.000		4.282		-0.037
Dolphins	21.250	20.636		4.319		0.426
Bills	23.083	18.273		4.373		-0.995
Falcons	17.167	16.091		4.429		-0.579
Saints	21.250	18.546		4.658		0.148
Giants	19.083	11.909		5.053		1.498
Patriots	15.250	19.000		5.213		-1.039
Panthers	18.000	20.273		5.332		1.243
Eagles	7.000	15.455		6.175		0.136

Observations:

• As the season goes on, rankings settle in and the big picture comes into focus. That's reflected in the Standard Deviation numbers. 23 teams saw their deviation go down this week compared to last, with only 9 seeing it go up.
• It's no surprise that the best and worst teams have the more consistent numbers.
• Not only do the Bengals come in on top of the rankings overall, but they're decidedly the top team right now.
• Also not surprising that the teams that have moved the most this week also have the higher deviations.
• Five of the 6 most inconsistently-ranked teams are NFC teams. What does that mean?!

Difference in Averages

	Subj vs Obj
Eagles	7.000	15.455		8.455		-0.454
Patriots	15.250	19.000		3.750		0.114
Broncos	3.083	5.727		2.644		-0.902
Steelers	16.917	19.273		2.356		1.083
Panthers	18.000	20.273		2.273		0.546
Cardinals	3.833	5.909		2.076		-1.106
Colts	9.917	11.727		1.811		-1.553
Buccaneers	28.167	29.727		1.561		3.016
Seahawks	1.500	3.000		1.500		-0.500
Bears	15.917	17.000		1.083		-1.008
Texans	16.000	17.000		1.000		0.454
Lions	7.750	8.546		0.796		-0.931
Packers	11.250	11.909		0.659		-1.159
Chargers	5.083	5.727		0.644		0.189
Cowboys	11.417	11.909		0.492		2.674
Bengals	1.917	2.273		0.356		-1.008
Jets	25.500	25.818		0.318		-3.227
Jaguars	31.167	31.364		0.197		0.561
Chiefs	15.750	15.909		0.159		2.614
Ravens	6.500	6.000		-0.500		-2.500
Dolphins	21.250	20.636		-0.614		2.477
Rams	28.083	27.364		-0.720		0.462
Vikings	23.000	22.273		-0.727		0.546
Falcons	17.167	16.091		-1.076		-1.076
Raiders	31.750	30.546		-1.205		-0.932
49ers	10.250	8.818		-1.432		2.750
Browns	23.583	21.000		-2.583		-0.947
Saints	21.250	18.546		-2.705		2.022
Redskins	27.833	24.091		-3.742		1.803
Bills	23.083	18.273		-4.811		-1.902
Titans	29.750	24.909		-4.841		2.341
Giants	19.083	11.909		-7.174		-4.447

Observations:

• The media is desperate to buy into Chip Kelly, Nick Foles and the Eagles. Their status may be a bit inflated, or the objective numbers haven't caught up to them yet. So either the numbers will come up, or the Eagles will falter, regression is grand.
• As far as the Patriots have fallen, they may not have fallen enough.
• Nice to see the Broncos on the "slightly 'overrated'" list.
• Chargers are right where they should be, they really have been playing like a top-5 football team
• As much as the Eagles may be overrated, their division rivals in New York may be significantly underrated. Don't be surprised to see the Giants go on a run now.

Sources

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