2013 NFL Power Rankings Consensus

In our regular-season finale of looking through the NFL team rankings, we reflect on which teams were the biggest surprises and which didn't live up to expectations.

This is it. The final Power Rankings consensus post of the 2013 NFL Regular Season. Some of you may have noticed that I didn't get an article up last week. I apologize, but with Christmas being on Wednesday and a few other personal issues, it was really difficult to get the commentary together to write the post. I did collect all the rankings last week, however, so the "change in ranking" columns are all based on rankings from last week.

Now that the regular season is over, let's start with a little review, shall we?

Biggest Surprises

While all 5 teams on this list did perform better than anyone else expected, I'd say on this list, the Cardinals are the biggest surprise to me.

Biggest Disappointments

I'm a little surprised to see Baltimore on the disappointments list. Yes, it's disappointing to see the defending Super Bowl champions go 8-8 and not make the playoffs. But, it wasn't a huge surprised that they struggled a bit this year. We knew they lost quite a bit of talent in the offseason. Maybe expectations were still a bit too high to start teh season.

Notable Quotes

We predicted San Diego would be the sixth seed way back in October, and we continued to stick with it, even after the Bolts dropped to 5-7. That was the result more of our stubbornness than football IQ, but whatever. Look, everyone knows the Chargers got lucky Sunday. Now that they're in, they just need to ball out like they did in Denver in Week 15. That starts with pounding the Bengals on the ground, which means Ryan Mathews and Danny Woodhead should have 30 carries combined. On the road and against that pass rush, San Diego should not put the game on Philip Rivers.

Forcing their way into the playoff race, the Chargers snuck in assisted by a non-call against Kansas City’s B-team. Regardless, they got the spot and head to Cincinnati after their new-look offense helped them climb 15 spots from their preseason rank.

Who are the Chargers? San Diego went 5-2 against teams that finished with a winning record, and 4-5 against teams that finished .500 or worse.

Division Averages

Stock Rising

Stock Falling

Subjective Average

	Subjective
Seahawks	1	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1		1.556		0.444
Broncos	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2		1.556		-0.056
Panthers	3	5	3	3	3	4	3	4	5		3.667		-0.267
49ers	4	4	5	5	4	3	4	3	3		3.889		-0.289
Patriots	5	2	4	4	5	5	5	5	4		4.333		0.267
Saints	6	7	7	6	7	8	6	7	6		6.667		0.533
Bengals	7	6	6	8	8	6	7	6	8		6.889		0.511
Chiefs	10	9	10	9	6	12	8	9	7		8.889		-0.289
Colts	8	8	8	10	10	9	9	8	11		9.000		0.400
Eagles	11	10	9	7	11	7	10	10	9		9.333		0.967
Cardinals	9	13	12	11	9	10	11	12	10		10.778		-2.278
Packers	13	11	11	14	12	11	13	11	13		12.111		5.389
Chargers	12	12	13	12	13	13	12	13	12		12.444		0.256
Steelers	14	14	14	13	15	14	15	14	17		14.444		2.356
Bears	15	18	17	18	14	15	14	15	14		15.556		-1.156
Ravens	16	16	16	15	16	16	16	16	16		15.889		-2.389
Cowboys	17	17	15	17	17	19	19	17	18		17.333		-1.533
Dolphins	18	19	20	19	18	20	18	19	15		18.444		-3.644
Jets	19	15	19	16	19	23	20	18	23		19.111		2.589
Rams	20	21	18	21	20	17	17	20	20		19.333		-0.833
Lions	21	20	22	24	23	18	21	22	19		21.111		-0.711
Titans	22	22	21	23	22	21	22	23	21		21.889		0.511
Giants	23	23	25	20	21	22	23	21	22		22.222		0.778
Bills	25	26	24	22	24	26	24	24	26		24.556		-1.356
Vikings	24	24	26	25	25	25	25	25	24		24.778		0.322
Buccaneers	27	25	27	27	27	28	26	27	25		26.556		-0.556
Falcons	26	27	23	29	26	27	27	26	28		26.556		0.444
Browns	28	29	29	28	29	24	28	28	27		27.778		0.422
Jaguars	29	28	30	26	28	30	30	29	29		28.778		-0.778
Raiders	30	30	31	30	30	29	29	30	30		29.889		-0.389
Redskins	31	31	28	31	31	31	31	31	31		30.667		0.333
Texans	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32		32.000		0.000

Observations:

• Seahawks and Broncos are in a dead-heat now. Both tied with a 1.556 average ranking.
• Aaron Rodgers returns to Green Bay. Green Bay shoots up in the rankings.
• The Arizona Cardinals, a team not playing in the playoffs, are ranked ahead of the Packers and Chargers, two teams that are playing this weekend. Just goes to show the strength of the NFC West, and the NFC on the whole.
• Chargers are solidly holding down the number-12 spot.

Subjective Standard Deviation

	Subjective
Texans	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32		0.000		0.000
Ravens	16	16	16	15	16	16	16	16	16		0.314		-1.046
Broncos	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2		0.497		-0.003
Chargers	12	12	13	12	13	13	12	13	12		0.497		-1.179
Raiders	30	30	31	30	30	29	29	30	30		0.567		-0.458
Vikings	24	24	26	25	25	25	25	25	24		0.629		-0.817
Saints	6	7	7	6	7	8	6	7	6		0.667		-0.933
Seahawks	1	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1		0.685		-0.315
49ers	4	4	5	5	4	3	4	3	3		0.737		-0.283
Titans	22	22	21	23	22	21	22	23	21		0.737		-0.825
Panthers	3	5	3	3	3	4	3	4	5		0.817		-0.100
Bengals	7	6	6	8	8	6	7	6	8		0.875		-0.406
Redskins	31	31	28	31	31	31	31	31	31		0.943		0.943
Patriots	5	2	4	4	5	5	5	5	4		0.943		-0.077
Buccaneers	27	25	27	27	27	28	26	27	25		0.956		-0.657
Colts	8	8	8	10	10	9	9	8	11		1.054		-0.956
Steelers	14	14	14	13	15	14	15	14	17		1.066		-0.534
Packers	13	11	11	14	12	11	13	11	13		1.100		0.075
Cowboys	17	17	15	17	17	19	19	17	18		1.155		-0.980
Jaguars	29	28	30	26	28	30	30	29	29		1.227		-0.038
Bills	25	26	24	22	24	26	24	24	26		1.257		-0.576
Cardinals	9	13	12	11	9	10	11	12	10		1.315		0.393
Giants	23	23	25	20	21	22	23	21	22		1.397		0.397
Eagles	11	10	9	7	11	7	10	10	9		1.414		-0.073
Dolphins	18	19	20	19	18	20	18	19	15		1.423		-0.177
Browns	28	29	29	28	29	24	28	28	27		1.474		0.602
Rams	20	21	18	21	20	17	17	20	20		1.491		-0.074
Bears	15	18	17	18	14	15	14	15	14		1.571		-0.173
Falcons	26	27	23	29	26	27	27	26	28		1.571		-0.326
Chiefs	10	9	10	9	6	12	8	9	7		1.663		-0.022
Lions	21	20	22	24	23	18	21	22	19		1.792		-0.583
Jets	19	15	19	16	19	23	20	18	23		2.558		1.289

Observations:

• Overall, a lot of consensus across the board. I guess that's easy to do though when we've seen all these teams play 16 games now.
• Only 6 teams saw their standard deviation go up this week. 1 team stayed the same (unanimous 32nd-ranked Texans). All the other 25 teams saw their deviation go down.
• In Week 1, half the league had a deviation greater than 2.0. Now, only 1 team holds that distinction.

Objective Average

	Objective
Seahawks	1	1	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1		1.100		0.233
Panthers	3	8	3	4	2	3	4	3	4	3		3.700		-0.033
Broncos	2	3	6	3	9	2	2	7	3	4		4.100		-0.211
49ers	6	6	1	2	11	5	3	5	2	2		4.300		0.144
Saints	4	2	5	5	5	7	5	6	7	5		5.100		1.233
Bengals	9	4	8	9	3	4	9	2	10	8		6.600		0.733
Patriots	5	9	7	7	4	10	8	8	8	6		7.200		0.022
Cardinals	10	7	4	6	13	12	6	11	5	7		8.100		-0.100
Colts	13	16	9	8	8	11	10	10	6	9		10.000		0.222
Eagles	8	5	12	12	12	6	13	9	12	11		10.000		-0.222
Chiefs	7	19	16	10	10	9	7	4	9	10		10.100		-0.433
Chargers	12	15	11	11	7	13	11	15	11	12		11.800		0.200
Rams	14	26	10	13	15	15	12	19	13	13		15.000		-0.444
Steelers	15	11	13	15	17	20	18	14	18	17		15.800		0.644
Dolphins	23	20	14	17	6	19	15	21	16	14		16.500		-2.278
Titans	20	22	20	14	14	16	16	16	14	18		17.000		0.667
Lions	16	10	27	19	24	8	17	13	24	21		17.900		0.544
Bears	11	12	26	25	16	18	24	12	22	20		18.600		-0.600
Packers	21	14	22	21	18	17	21	17	19	16		18.600		1.289
Cowboys	17	21	25	16	25	22	14	18	15	15		18.800		-1.689
Bills	18	18	21	20	23	14	22	22	25	23		20.600		-0.711
Ravens	22	29	17	18	19	23	23	20	20	19		21.000		0.111
Jets	24	24	15	26	20	21	26	23	21	22		22.200		2.800
Giants	27	13	19	24	26	27	25	27	17	24		22.900		0.211
Buccaneers	19	31	18	22	21	24	19	29	23	26		23.200		-1.422
Falcons	25	28	23	23	22	28	20	25	27	25		24.600		0.511
Vikings	26	23	24	27	27	29	27	26	26	27		26.200		-0.644
Browns	28	17	30	29	31	30	29	24	31	28		27.700		-0.700
Raiders	31	30	29	28	29	26	30	31	29	29		29.200		-0.200
Redskins	29	27	31	32	28	25	31	30	30	30		29.300		-0.411
Texans	30	25	32	30	32	31	28	28	32	31		29.900		0.544
Jaguars	32	32	28	31	30	32	32	32	28	32		30.900		-0.011

Observations:

• Though they're duking it out in the Subjective lists, the Seahawks and Broncos aren't as close in the Objective lists.
• Arizona is ranked above 4 playoff teams in the Objective list. Not sure if I'd take comfort in that or be distraught as a Cardinals fan.
• Chargers higher than 12th overall in the Objective list.
• Jacksonville is still the worst in the league.

Objective Standard Deviation

	Objective
Seahawks	1	1	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1		0.300		-0.643
Saints	4	2	5	5	5	7	5	6	7	5		1.375		-0.886
Raiders	31	30	29	28	29	26	30	31	29	29		1.400		-0.014
Panthers	3	8	3	4	2	3	4	3	4	3		1.552		-0.148
Jaguars	32	32	28	31	30	32	32	32	28	32		1.578		-0.017
Vikings	26	23	24	27	27	29	27	26	26	27		1.600		-0.715
Patriots	5	9	7	7	4	10	8	8	8	6		1.721		-0.210
Redskins	29	27	31	32	28	25	31	30	30	30		2.003		0.211
Texans	30	25	32	30	32	31	28	28	32	31		2.166		0.000
Chargers	12	15	11	11	7	13	11	15	11	12		2.182		-0.357
Broncos	2	3	6	3	9	2	2	7	3	4		2.300		-0.078
Packers	21	14	22	21	18	17	21	17	19	16		2.498		-1.704
Falcons	25	28	23	23	22	28	20	25	27	25		2.498		0.265
Steelers	15	11	13	15	17	20	18	14	18	17		2.561		-0.907
Colts	13	16	9	8	8	11	10	10	6	9		2.683		-0.176
Eagles	8	5	12	12	12	6	13	9	12	11		2.683		-0.806
Titans	20	22	20	14	14	16	16	16	14	18		2.720		0.226
49ers	6	6	1	2	11	5	3	5	2	2		2.830		-0.003
Bengals	9	4	8	9	3	4	9	2	10	8		2.836		0.087
Cardinals	10	7	4	6	13	12	6	11	5	7		2.982		-0.962
Bills	18	18	21	20	23	14	22	22	25	23		3.040		0.397
Jets	24	24	15	26	20	21	26	23	21	22		3.092		0.467
Ravens	22	29	17	18	19	23	23	20	20	19		3.286		-0.095
Cowboys	17	21	25	16	25	22	14	18	15	15		3.945		-0.122
Browns	28	17	30	29	31	30	29	24	31	28		4.051		-0.139
Buccaneers	19	31	18	22	21	24	19	29	23	26		4.143		-0.146
Chiefs	7	19	16	10	10	9	7	4	9	10		4.158		-0.485
Rams	14	26	10	13	15	15	12	19	13	13		4.290		-0.110
Dolphins	23	20	14	17	6	19	15	21	16	14		4.544		0.839
Giants	27	13	19	24	26	27	25	27	17	24		4.636		-0.089
Bears	11	12	26	25	16	18	24	12	22	20		5.389		1.306
Lions	16	10	27	19	24	8	17	13	24	21		5.974		-0.577

Observations:

• Much less agreement overall in this list than in the Subjective rankings list.
• NFC teams take the bulk of the most and least consistently-ranked teams.

Overall Average

	Subj vs Obj
Seahawks	1.556	1.100		1.328		0.339
Broncos	1.556	4.100		2.828		-0.134
Panthers	3.667	3.700		3.683		-0.150
49ers	3.889	4.300		4.094		-0.072
Patriots	4.333	7.200		5.767		0.144
Saints	6.667	5.100		5.883		0.884
Bengals	6.889	6.600		6.744		0.623
Cardinals	10.778	8.100		9.439		-1.189
Chiefs	8.889	10.100		9.494		-0.361
Colts	9.000	10.000		9.500		0.311
Eagles	9.333	10.000		9.667		0.372
Chargers	12.444	11.800		12.122		0.228
Steelers	14.444	15.800		15.122		1.500
Packers	12.111	18.600		15.356		3.338
Bears	15.556	18.600		17.078		-0.878
Rams	19.333	15.000		17.167		-0.639
Dolphins	18.444	16.500		17.472		-2.961
Cowboys	17.333	18.800		18.067		-1.611
Ravens	15.889	21.000		18.444		-1.138
Titans	21.889	17.000		19.444		0.589
Lions	21.111	17.900		19.506		-0.084
Jets	19.111	22.200		20.656		2.694
Giants	22.222	22.900		22.561		0.495
Bills	24.556	20.600		22.578		-1.034
Buccaneers	26.556	23.200		24.878		-0.989
Vikings	24.778	26.200		25.489		-0.161
Falcons	26.556	24.600		25.578		0.478
Browns	27.778	27.700		27.739		-0.139
Raiders	29.889	29.200		29.544		-0.294
Jaguars	28.778	30.900		29.839		-0.395
Redskins	30.667	29.300		29.983		-0.039
Texans	32.000	29.900		30.950		0.272

Observations:

• Seahawks retain top spot. Nearly twice as good as the Broncos are.
• Face it Steelers fans, missed calls aside, the better team made the playoffs.
• Interesting how the Chargers basically stand on their own at ~12. The next nearest teams — above or below — are about 3 spots away.
• Amusing that the NFC's 6th seed — the Saints — are ranked above the AFC's 3rd–through–6th seeds.

Overall Standard Deviation

	Subj vs Obj
Seahawks	1.556	1.100		0.567		-0.462
Raiders	29.889	29.200		1.141		-0.109
Panthers	3.667	3.700		1.259		-0.093
Saints	6.667	5.100		1.348		-0.641
Vikings	24.778	26.200		1.428		-0.493
Chargers	12.444	11.800		1.651		-0.506
Redskins	30.667	29.300		1.731		0.109
Jaguars	28.778	30.900		1.774		-0.258
Texans	32.000	29.900		1.889		0.208
Patriots	4.333	7.200		2.007		0.000
Steelers	14.444	15.800		2.109		-0.551
Broncos	1.556	4.100		2.125		0.068
49ers	3.889	4.300		2.125		-0.003
Colts	9.000	10.000		2.137		-0.346
Bengals	6.889	6.600		2.148		0.040
Eagles	9.333	10.000		2.202		-0.443
Falcons	26.556	24.600		2.325		0.056
Cardinals	10.778	8.100		2.699		-0.108
Cowboys	17.333	18.800		3.059		-0.207
Bills	24.556	20.600		3.084		0.289
Browns	27.778	27.700		3.109		0.097
Titans	21.889	17.000		3.180		0.047
Jets	19.111	22.200		3.242		0.629
Chiefs	8.889	10.100		3.283		-0.180
Ravens	15.889	21.000		3.499		-1.065
Buccaneers	26.556	23.200		3.503		-0.308
Giants	22.222	22.900		3.514		0.182
Dolphins	18.444	16.500		3.574		0.757
Packers	12.111	18.600		3.789		0.574
Rams	19.333	15.000		3.927		0.140
Bears	15.556	18.600		4.332		0.765
Lions	21.111	17.900		4.783		-0.141

Observations:

• 5 of the 7 most consistently–ranked teams are in the NFC.
• 6 of the 7 least consistently–ranked teams are in the NFC.
• Patriots deviation did not change at all overall this week.
• Chargers continue their season-long trend of being one of the more consistently-ranked teams.

Difference in Averages

	Subj vs Obj
Packers	12.111	18.600		6.489		4.100
Ravens	15.889	21.000		5.111		-2.500
Jets	19.111	22.200		3.089		-0.211
Bears	15.556	18.600		3.044		-0.556
Patriots	4.333	7.200		2.867		0.245
Broncos	1.556	4.100		2.544		0.155
Jaguars	28.778	30.900		2.122		-0.767
Cowboys	17.333	18.800		1.467		0.156
Vikings	24.778	26.200		1.422		0.966
Steelers	14.444	15.800		1.356		1.712
Chiefs	8.889	10.100		1.211		0.144
Colts	9.000	10.000		1.000		0.178
Giants	22.222	22.900		0.678		0.567
Eagles	9.333	10.000		0.667		1.189
49ers	3.889	4.300		0.411		-0.433
Panthers	3.667	3.700		0.033		-0.234
Browns	27.778	27.700		-0.078		1.122
Bengals	6.889	6.600		-0.289		-0.222
Seahawks	1.556	1.100		-0.456		0.211
Chargers	12.444	11.800		-0.644		0.056
Raiders	29.889	29.200		-0.689		-0.189
Redskins	30.667	29.300		-1.367		0.744
Saints	6.667	5.100		-1.567		-0.700
Dolphins	18.444	16.500		-1.944		-1.366
Falcons	26.556	24.600		-1.956		-0.067
Texans	32.000	29.900		-2.100		-0.544
Cardinals	10.778	8.100		-2.678		-2.178
Lions	21.111	17.900		-3.211		-1.255
Buccaneers	26.556	23.200		-3.356		0.866
Bills	24.556	20.600		-3.956		-0.645
Rams	19.333	15.000		-4.333		-0.389
Titans	21.889	17.000		-4.889		-0.156

Observations:

• Are the Packers better again with Rodgers back and they're just being held down by their recent games with Flynn at the helm? Or are the pundits giving them too much credit? We'll find out this weekend.
• Pick your reasoning, but the Ravens weren't as good this season as many want to believe.
• 8 of the 12 teams with an "over-ranking" greater than 1.000 are AFC teams. This includes four of the six AFC playoff teams.
• Chargers and Bengals — who square–off this Sunday – are both slightl under-ranked.
• 7 of the 11 teams "under-ranked" by more than 1.000 are NFC teams
• Looking at the bottom 5 of this list, you could easily make a "5 biggest underachievers" list for 2013, and these would be a solid 5 teams on that list.

Sources

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