2013 NFL Power Rankings Consensus: Week 1

Welcome everyone! Aren't we all excited about the new season? Since it's the start of the season (it feels like the first day of school, doesn't it?), I'll give everyone a quick primer about how this works.

I troll the web for various NFL power rankings, load them up into my computer and crunch the numbers. I then make observations based on what the numbers tell me. Don't worry, it's nothing too complicated, and I'll walk you through the various displays, explaining as we go along.

Notable Quotes

Comparing the rosters of the 2013 Raiders and 2008 Lions, I've determined that the former is much, much worse. If the two teams played, I feel like Detroit would win by double digits. Indeed, the 2013 Raiders might just become the first team to go 0-17. There's no way they're going to beat their own bye.

WalterFootball.com

Chargers fans the world over rejoiced upon the ousting of Norv Turner and AJ Smith. That excitement may have been tempered somewhat during this preseason. While there have been marked improvements in the running game, other problems are still prevalent. Make no mistake, this is a rebuilding year.

Reddit

Is there anyone on the planet who knows what to make of the Chargers right now? I checked Angie's List, NFL Media colleagues ... this is a tough team to decipher. Still thinking San Diego will be on par with the Kansas City Chiefs, but King Dunlap's presence at left tackle and a very questionable receiver group make one wish Antonio Gates were five years younger and a half-a-second faster. The easy AFC West keeps San Diego ahead of Tampa and Cleveland.

NFL.com

Division Averages

Before we get to looking at where all the teams rank, let's take look at the bigger picture in the NFL. This table takes the average rankings for each team, then averages the rankings of each team in the division. It's used as a way of showing where the tougher and weaker divisions lie each week.

Observations

• It wasn't all that long ago when the NFC West was the laughingstock of the league. Now look at them.
• The only thing keeping the AFC West out of the cellar is Denver holding everyone else up, and the futility of the Jets pulling everyone in the East down.

Stock Rising

This table is kind of self-explanatory: it shows which teams have moved up the most this week compared to last week.

Observations

• Not much movement is to be expected going from Preseason to the Regular Season, unless a team suffers some catastrophic injuries, not much changes.

Stock Falling

Subjective Average

We'll start off with the Subjective Average. These rankings are the ones that has actual people ranking the teams based on their gut feelings. You'll see in a moment that some of these sites may even just throw darts at a board, or have a chicken pecking at numbers. I then take all those rankings and average them together, then sort the table based on the average ranking. This method evens out the peaks and valleys and allows us to get a more reliable "big picture" view of the perception of where teams rank in the league.

	Subjective
49ers	3	1	2	1	1	1	1	1	2		1.444		0.056
Seahawks	1	3	6	3	2	3	2	2	1		2.556		0.277
Broncos	4	2	1	2	3	2	3	3	4		2.667		-0.334
Falcons	2	4	3	4	5	5	4	5	8		4.444		-0.444
Packers	5	7	5	9	4	4	7	4	6		5.667		0.333
Patriots	6	6	4	8	6	8	5	6	3		5.778		0.055
Ravens	8	5	8	6	8	7	8	7	9		7.333		-1.166
Texans	7	8	9	7	7	6	6	8	11		7.667		0.666
Bengals	9	9	7	5	9	9	9	9	15		9.000		-0.833
Redskins	10	13	16	10	11	10	10	13	7		11.111		1.722
Saints	13	16	11	18	10	11	12	10	5		11.778		1.889
Giants	12	15	10	16	12	13	13	11	10		12.444		-1.277
Colts	11	12	13	11	13	14	11	15	13		12.556		-1.389
Bears	14	11	15	12	15	12	14	14	14		13.444		2.556
Cowboys	18	17	14	15	16	15	15	12	21		15.889		-0.722
Vikings	17	10	18	13	21	17	16	19	16		16.333		0.167
Steelers	16	20	12	20	14	16	17	16	17		16.444		-1.444
Rams	15	14	17	17	19	22	18	20	12		17.111		-0.444
Dolphins	20	25	23	14	23	19	22	18	18		20.222		-0.389
Panthers	23	28	19	19	18	18	23	22	19		21.000		0.500
Lions	21	18	28	21	17	20	19	24	22		21.111		1.389
Chiefs	19	19	24	27	20	24	21	17	24		21.667		0.833
Buccaneers	22	21	21	23	24	21	20	23	28		22.556		-2.723
Eagles	25	23	25	26	22	23	26	21	25		24.000		1.000
Browns	28	24	26	24	25	26	28	26	20		25.222		3.278
Cardinals	26	29	20	25	27	27	24	29	23		25.556		0.277
Chargers	24	26	27	22	26	25	27	27	29		25.889		-2.056
Titans	27	22	22	28	28	28	25	28	26		26.000		-1.000
Bills	30	27	29	29	29	30	29	25	27		28.333		1.000
Jets	32	30	30	30	30	29	30	31	30		30.222		-0.555
Jaguars	29	31	31	31	31	31	31	30	31		30.667		0.000
Raiders	31	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32		31.889		-1.222

Observations:

• The Chargers open the season ranked as the 6th-worst team in the league. Ouch.
• Continuing last season's trend, 7 of the bottom 10 teams are in the AFC. 8 of the bottom 11 are in the AFC. So really, 72% of the bottom third is made up of AFC teams. And in that bottom 3rd are all three AFC West teams not from Denver.
• The 49ers are the closest to a consensus top pick as we can get right now. Denver and Seattle are keeping things close in the battle for second place. The Broncos did drop slightly since the start of preseason, likely thanks to several injuries.
• Convenient: the top 12 is evenly split 6-6 between NFC-AFC teams. I really wonder how many rankers purposefully try to keep things even.
• Interesting that the Jaguars' ranking didn't move at all, even though the Raiders passed them.

Subjective Standard Deviation

Put simply, Standard Deviation is a tool in statistics to measure how much variance there is in a set of numbers. To put more simply: I use it to look at who's ranked the most- and least-consistently. In Standard Deviation, the lower the number, the more consistent the values in the set. For our purposes, this means the lower the Standard Deviation, the more consistent the rankings. The opposite is true too: the higher the number, the less consistent the rankings.

This table is sorted by most-consistently ranked to least-consistently ranked.

	Subjective
Raiders	31	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32		0.314		-0.933
Jaguars	29	31	31	31	31	31	31	30	31		0.667		-1.128
49ers	3	1	2	1	1	1	1	1	2		0.685		0.185
Jets	32	30	30	30	30	29	30	31	30		0.786		-0.914
Broncos	4	2	1	2	3	2	3	3	4		0.943		0.198
Ravens	8	5	8	6	8	7	8	7	9		1.155		-0.617
Bears	14	11	15	12	15	12	14	14	14		1.343		-2.354
Colts	11	12	13	11	13	14	11	15	13		1.343		0.445
Seahawks	1	3	6	3	2	3	2	2	1		1.423		-0.149
Texans	7	8	9	7	7	6	6	8	11		1.491		0.548
Patriots	6	6	4	8	6	8	5	6	3		1.548		0.204
Bills	30	27	29	29	29	30	29	25	27		1.564		0.458
Falcons	2	4	3	4	5	5	4	5	8		1.571		0.754
Packers	5	7	5	9	4	4	7	4	6		1.633		0.633
Eagles	25	23	25	26	22	23	26	21	25		1.700		0.409
Chargers	24	26	27	22	26	25	27	27	29		1.912		0.568
Giants	12	15	10	16	12	13	13	11	10		1.950		0.737
Buccaneers	22	21	21	23	24	21	20	23	28		2.266		-0.001
Browns	28	24	26	24	25	26	28	26	20		2.299		0.591
Titans	27	22	22	28	28	28	25	28	26		2.357		-1.059
Steelers	16	20	12	20	14	16	17	16	17		2.409		1.118
Cowboys	18	17	14	15	16	15	15	12	21		2.424		-0.310
Redskins	10	13	16	10	11	10	10	13	7		2.424		0.390
Bengals	9	9	7	5	9	9	9	9	15		2.494		1.281
Cardinals	26	29	20	25	27	27	24	29	23		2.753		0.209
Rams	15	14	17	17	19	22	18	20	12		2.923		0.566
Chiefs	19	19	24	27	20	24	21	17	24		3.055		0.993
Vikings	17	10	18	13	21	17	16	19	16		3.055		1.671
Panthers	23	28	19	19	18	18	23	22	19		3.127		0.910
Lions	21	18	28	21	17	20	19	24	22		3.143		0.329
Dolphins	20	25	23	14	23	19	22	18	18		3.190		0.646
Saints	13	16	11	18	10	11	12	10	5		3.521		0.272

Observations:

• 75% of teams (24 of 32) had their Standard Deviation rise this week. Chances are that's because I have more sources than last week.
• As is typical, the teams at the far ends of the spectrum are more consistently ranked. This is inherently the nature of just using raw Standard Deviation. I'll find a way to normalize these numbers.
• It is interesting though that the Saints are so inconsistent in their ranking. Rankers have them anywhere from 18th all the way up to 5th. That's quite a swing.
• Every year, there are a few rankers who are very high on St. Louis. And every year St. Louis disappoints those rankers.
• The Chargers are right in the middle of the pack for consistency, and actually rather consistently-ranked around 26th.

That's it for this week. Next week after games are actually played, we'll bring in the objective rankings sites and really start to compare numbers.

Sources

• ESPN
• Fox
• CBS
• NFL.com
• SB Nation
• Reddit
• Associated Press
• ProFootballFocus
• Walter Football