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2013 NFL Power Ranking Consensus, Week 4: Chargers settling, Colts and Jets Surging

It was all but certain the NFC was going to continue to be the dominant division in 2013. The rankings indicate that's no longer the case.

By John Crean

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Wesley Hitt

What a year this is turning out to be. Just when it seemed like the NFC was just going to wipe the floor with the AFC, the AFC has collectively shown they aren't to be messed with. This week the NFC went just 2-6 against AFC teams. On the year, the AFC is 11-3 against the NFC head-to-head. Heck, the Chiefs alone are 2-0 against the NFC East so far.

As for the Chargers? Well, they seem to be better than expected, but only slightly. The lack of depth was perfectly apparent in Sunday's loss to the Titans. Optimists like to point out that the Chargers are 2 plays away from being 3-0, while the pessimists like to point out that the Chargers are one bad bounce away from being 0-3. As you'll see in the rankings, the Chargers aren't the worst team in the league, nor are they close to being the best. But there's hope for the future.

Division Averages

Division Avg Ranking
AFC East 12.6667
AFC West 14.5833
NFC South 15.3214
NFC West 15.9167
NFC North 16.0476
AFC North 17.6071
AFC South 17.9762
NFC East 21.8810

Last week the NFC East and NFC North were the top two divisions. The AFC East and AFC West have leapfrogged both teams to take the top 2 spots, respectively. Who would have thought to start the year that the AFC West would be so strong?

Stock Rising

Team Week 3 Average Week 4 Average Difference
IND 16.917 10.597 6.320
NYJ 22.625 16.583 6.042
CAR 21.438 15.750 5.688
CLE 29.438 23.778 5.660
KC 14.542 10.014 4.528

Colts easily took down the 49ers on Sunday, of course they shoot up. The real surprise here is the Jets. They started out the season as the laughingstock of the league, now they're surprising everyone.

Stock Falling

Team Week 3 Average Week 4 Average Difference
SF 7.083 15.347 -8.264
HOU 5.688 11.806 -6.118
STL 17.875 22.972 -5.097
GB 8.521 13.569 -5.048
ATL 9.354 13.778 -4.424

The Colts were at the top of the "Stock Rising" list, and the 49ers are now at the top of the "Stock Falling" list. San Francisco is now decidedly ranked as an average team.

Also worth pointing out: 4 of the 5 teams on the "Stock Falling" list are in the NFC, and 4 of the 5 teams in the "Stock Rising" list are in the AFC.

Subjective Average

Subjective
ESPN Fox CBS USA Today Sports Illustrated ProFootballTalk NFL.com SportingNews SB Nation Reddit Associated Press ProFootballFocus Average Change since last period
Broncos 2 1 1 2 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 1.333 0.000 No Change
Seahawks 1 2 2 1 2 2 1 1 2 2 2 2 1.667 0.000 No Change
Saints 3 6 4 3 3 4 4 4 5 3 4 3 3.833 3.167 Rising
Patriots 5 3 3 5 6 5 3 3 3 6 5 4 4.250 2.333 Rising
Bears 4 4 7 4 4 6 5 5 4 4 3 6 4.667 3.333 Rising
Bengals 6 5 8 6 7 7 6 8 6 5 9 7 6.667 4.000 Rising
Dolphins 7 10 5 8 5 8 7 13 9 7 7 10 8.000 4.250 Rising
Chiefs 8 7 6 7 8 9 8 11 11 10 6 8 8.250 3.333 Rising
Ravens 11 8 11 9 10 3 11 7 7 8 8 9 8.500 2.667 Rising
Texans 13 9 12 12 11 10 14 9 8 11 11 14 11.167 -6.917 Falling
Packers 12 15 15 10 9 13 10 10 13 9 14 5 11.250 -6.083 Falling
Colts 9 12 10 11 13 11 9 14 10 13 10 15 11.417 4.166 Rising
49ers 10 13 13 14 15 12 16 6 12 12 12 12 12.250 -8.833 Falling
Cowboys 15 11 9 13 12 14 12 12 15 15 13 11 12.667 1.333 Rising
Falcons 14 16 14 15 17 15 13 15 14 14 16 13 14.667 -6.334 Falling
Lions 16 14 18 16 16 16 15 16 16 16 15 16 15.833 3.167 Rising
Titans 17 17 16 17 14 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 16.667 3.333 Rising
Chargers 19 19 19 21 20 18 18 19 20 19 19 18 19.083 -1.583 Falling
Jets 18 18 17 20 19 24 21 23 18 22 18 24 20.167 7.083 Rising
Eagles 23 20 20 23 25 19 20 18 19 18 21 19 20.417 -2.750 Falling
Panthers 21 22 25 18 23 20 19 21 21 20 20 20 20.833 6.667 Rising
Rams 20 23 22 19 18 22 23 20 22 21 23 21 21.167 -3.167 Falling
Cardinals 22 24 21 22 21 21 24 26 25 23 22 27 23.167 -1.500 Falling
Bills 24 21 24 24 22 25 22 27 26 24 24 22 23.750 -0.417 Falling
Browns 25 26 23 27 24 26 25 28 29 27 25 23 25.667 4.583 Rising
Redskins 27 28 30 25 29 29 26 25 23 25 26 29 26.833 -2.750 Falling
Steelers 28 25 27 26 26 30 30 24 28 30 27 26 27.250 -1.167 Falling
Giants 29 29 29 28 28 27 28 22 27 28 29 25 27.417 -6.417 Falling
Vikings 26 30 28 29 30 28 27 29 24 29 28 28 28.000 -3.833 Falling
Raiders 30 31 26 31 27 23 31 30 30 26 30 30 28.750 -0.167 Falling
Buccaneers 31 27 31 30 31 31 29 31 31 31 31 31 30.417 -1.500 Falling
Jaguars 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32.000 0.000 No Change

Observations:

  • The top 12 now consists of 8 AFC teams and just 4 NFC teams. In week 4 last year, the split was 9 NFC to 3 AFC.
  • Broncos and Seahawks maintain their same rankings as last week. In fact, all sites ranked them the same as last week.
  • The Titans climbed higher than the Chargers fell. That's good news, right?
  • With the Browns taking down the Vikings, they shoot up the board. Tampa Bay now takes their spot at second-worst in the NFL.
  • Jacksonville is playing bad and they should feel bad.

Subjective Standard Deviation

Subjective
ESPN Fox CBS USA Today Sports Illustrated ProFootballTalk NFL.com SportingNews SB Nation Reddit Associated Press ProFootballFocus Standard Deviation Change since last period
Jaguars 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 0.000 0.000 No Change
Seahawks 1 2 2 1 2 2 1 1 2 2 2 2 0.471 0.000 No Change
Broncos 2 1 1 2 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 0.471 0.000 No Change
Titans 17 17 16 17 14 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 0.850 -1.949 Falling
Chargers 19 19 19 21 20 18 18 19 20 19 19 18 0.862 -1.159 Falling
Saints 3 6 4 3 3 4 4 4 5 3 4 3 0.898 -0.683 Falling
Lions 16 14 18 16 16 16 15 16 16 16 15 16 0.898 -0.785 Falling
Bears 4 4 7 4 4 6 5 5 4 4 3 6 1.106 0.106 Rising
Patriots 5 3 3 5 6 5 3 3 3 6 5 4 1.164 -0.727 Falling
Falcons 14 16 14 15 17 15 13 15 14 14 16 13 1.179 0.000 No Change
Bengals 6 5 8 6 7 7 6 8 6 5 9 7 1.179 0.000 No Change
Buccaneers 31 27 31 30 31 31 29 31 31 31 31 31 1.187 -1.066 Falling
Rams 20 23 22 19 18 22 23 20 22 21 23 21 1.572 0.218 Rising
Vikings 26 30 28 29 30 28 27 29 24 29 28 28 1.633 0.420 Rising
Chiefs 8 7 6 7 8 9 8 11 11 10 6 8 1.639 0.319 Rising
Bills 24 21 24 24 22 25 22 27 26 24 24 22 1.689 -0.805 Falling
Panthers 21 22 25 18 23 20 19 21 21 20 20 20 1.772 -0.249 Falling
Browns 25 26 23 27 24 26 25 28 29 27 25 23 1.795 0.496 Rising
Cowboys 15 11 9 13 12 14 12 12 15 15 13 11 1.795 0.882 Rising
Texans 13 9 12 12 11 10 14 9 8 11 11 14 1.863 1.034 Rising
Colts 9 12 10 11 13 11 9 14 10 13 10 15 1.891 0.450 Rising
Steelers 28 25 27 26 26 30 30 24 28 30 27 26 1.920 0.073 Rising
Cardinals 22 24 21 22 21 21 24 26 25 23 22 27 1.951 -0.406 Falling
Giants 29 29 29 28 28 27 28 22 27 28 29 25 1.977 -0.762 Falling
Redskins 27 28 30 25 29 29 26 25 23 25 26 29 2.075 -0.647 Falling
Eagles 23 20 20 23 25 19 20 18 19 18 21 19 2.100 -0.185 Falling
Dolphins 7 10 5 8 5 8 7 13 9 7 7 10 2.160 0.861 Rising
Ravens 11 8 11 9 10 3 11 7 7 8 8 9 2.179 0.064 Rising
49ers 10 13 13 14 15 12 16 6 12 12 12 12 2.420 1.558 Rising
Jets 18 18 17 20 19 24 21 23 18 22 18 24 2.444 0.568 Rising
Raiders 30 31 26 31 27 23 31 30 30 26 30 30 2.488 -0.044 Falling
Packers 12 15 15 10 9 13 10 10 13 9 14 5 2.832 1.689 Rising

Observations:

  • Jacksonville, Seattle and Denver did not move at all
  • Wow, the next two most consistent teams come from smack dab in the middle of the rankings.
  • Other than two sites, Tennessee was almost a consensus 17th. Interesting since the Titans were the least consistently-ranked team last week in the Subjective Rankings.
  • Pretty good consensus of the Chargers being right around 19th.
  • Same with the Lions right around 16th.
  • Some sites like what they see from the Raiders, while others remain unconvinced.
  • What's the deal with the Packers?

Objective Average

Objective
Football Outsiders Team Efficiency Team Rankings Sagarin BeatGraphs Aikman Efficiency Pro Football Reference Massey ARGH Average Change since last period
Broncos 2 2 1 2 1 2 1 1 3 1.667 1.208 Rising
Seahawks 1 1 3 3 9 1 4 2 1 2.778 0.597 Rising
Patriots 4 12 5 1 6 12 2 3 2 5.222 -0.222 Falling
Saints 6 3 8 4 3 9 8 6 4 5.667 1.333 Rising
Dolphins 13 10 2 13 2 6 6 4 7 7.000 2.875 Rising
Colts 11 4 6 15 11 7 12 8 14 9.778 8.472 Rising
Panthers 5 8 16 17 22 3 3 12 10 10.667 4.708 Rising
Ravens 12 30 4 6 4 17 14 5 6 10.889 2.111 Rising
Bears 8 27 9 11 7 5 22 7 5 11.222 -1.222 Falling
Chiefs 10 9 14 27 5 4 9 11 17 11.778 5.722 Rising
Texans 17 17 7 8 8 15 21 10 9 12.444 -5.319 Falling
Cowboys 18 13 17 7 10 14 10 15 11 12.778 4.597 Rising
Falcons 9 6 12 9 12 23 13 14 18 12.889 -2.514 Falling
Jets 14 7 13 26 13 10 5 13 16 13.000 5.000 Rising
Bengals 7 19 10 12 14 13 30 9 8 13.556 -0.431 Falling
Packers 3 18 20 5 24 18 27 16 12 15.889 -4.014 Falling
Lions 16 5 24 16 26 8 20 20 15 16.667 0.458 Rising
Bills 24 16 18 24 16 19 7 19 20 18.111 -0.861 Falling
49ers 21 22 11 10 17 29 25 18 13 18.444 -7.694 Falling
Titans 25 21 15 22 15 16 29 17 19 19.889 1.611 Rising
Buccaneers 19 15 25 20 23 20 11 24 30 20.778 -1.403 Falling
Chargers 20 25 21 18 25 21 23 21 21 21.667 -3.042 Falling
Browns 27 20 19 28 19 22 16 22 24 21.889 6.736 Rising
Eagles 15 14 30 23 29 11 28 29 28 23.000 -1.625 Falling
Giants 31 11 28 14 30 31 17 25 23 23.333 -2.333 Falling
Raiders 30 23 22 31 20 27 15 23 29 24.444 3.431 Rising
Rams 28 29 23 29 18 25 18 26 27 24.778 -7.028 Falling
Cardinals 29 26 26 30 21 24 19 27 22 24.889 -4.514 Falling
Vikings 26 28 27 21 31 26 24 28 26 26.333 -2.333 Falling
Steelers 22 24 29 19 28 30 32 30 31 27.222 -1.097 Falling
Redskins 23 32 31 25 32 28 31 31 25 28.667 -4.042 Falling
Jaguars 32 31 32 32 27 32 26 32 32 30.667 0.833 Rising

Observations:

  • Panthers in the top 10? Well they certainly did embarrass the Giants.
  • Dolphins third-best team in the AFC? Apparently ...
  • On Football Outsiders, the Chargers have the third-best offense based on VOA. They also have the second-worst defense. Hooray for balance?
  • Jaguars are once again not a consensus bottom pick in the objective rankings. Pittsburgh and Washington have also been placed in the bottom by various sites.
  • Despite that terrible game, the Giants only dropped 2.333 spots in the objective rankings.

Objective Standard Deviation

Objective
Football Outsiders Team Efficiency Team Rankings Sagarin BeatGraphs Aikman Efficiency Pro Football Reference Massey ARGH Standard Deviation Change since last period
Broncos 2 2 1 2 1 2 1 1 3 0.667 -1.754 Falling
Saints 6 3 8 4 3 9 8 6 4 2.160 -2.583 Falling
Chargers 20 25 21 18 25 21 23 21 21 2.160 -2.366 Falling
Jaguars 32 31 32 32 27 32 26 32 32 2.261 1.261 Rising
Seahawks 1 1 3 3 9 1 4 2 1 2.439 -0.297 Falling
Vikings 26 28 27 21 31 26 24 28 26 2.625 -1.676 Falling
Redskins 23 32 31 25 32 28 31 31 25 3.300 -4.182 Falling
Cowboys 18 13 17 7 10 14 10 15 11 3.392 -2.751 Falling
Cardinals 29 26 26 30 21 24 19 27 22 3.478 -1.836 Falling
Colts 11 4 6 15 11 7 12 8 14 3.521 -2.108 Falling
Browns 27 20 19 28 19 22 16 22 24 3.695 1.407 Rising
Patriots 4 12 5 1 6 12 2 3 2 3.910 -1.475 Falling
Dolphins 13 10 2 13 2 6 6 4 7 3.972 -1.400 Falling
Rams 28 29 23 29 18 25 18 26 27 4.049 -1.400 Falling
Steelers 22 24 29 19 28 30 32 30 31 4.237 -1.646 Falling
Titans 25 21 15 22 15 16 29 17 19 4.557 1.434 Rising
Bills 24 16 18 24 16 19 7 19 20 4.795 0.058 Rising
Texans 17 17 7 8 8 15 21 10 9 4.810 0.161 Rising
Falcons 9 6 12 9 12 23 13 14 18 4.818 0.820 Rising
Raiders 30 23 22 31 20 27 15 23 29 4.947 2.056 Rising
Buccaneers 19 15 25 20 23 20 11 24 30 5.287 -2.973 Falling
Jets 14 7 13 26 13 10 5 13 16 5.657 -0.280 Falling
49ers 21 22 11 10 17 29 25 18 13 6.076 -2.595 Falling
Panthers 5 8 16 17 22 3 3 12 10 6.289 -0.566 Falling
Lions 16 5 24 16 26 8 20 20 15 6.481 1.250 Rising
Chiefs 10 9 14 27 5 4 9 11 17 6.579 -2.842 Falling
Bengals 7 19 10 12 14 13 30 9 8 6.751 2.267 Rising
Eagles 15 14 30 23 29 11 28 29 28 7.149 -0.367 Falling
Giants 31 11 28 14 30 31 17 25 23 7.196 -0.050 Falling
Bears 8 27 9 11 7 5 22 7 5 7.405 1.815 Rising
Packers 3 18 20 5 24 18 27 16 12 7.564 -0.794 Falling
Ravens 12 30 4 6 4 17 14 5 6 8.103 2.907 Rising

Observations:

  • Once again, the Chargers are one of the most consistently-ranked teams. But this time right around 21-22.
  • Broncos, Saints, Seahawks and Cowboys all doing things consistently well.
  • Jaguars, Vikings and Redskins all doing things consistently not well.
  • Last week the Chiefs were the least consistently-ranked. This week a lot of the sites have come up in their rankings of the Chiefs.
  • Packers also inconsistent in the objective rankings

Overall Average

Subj vs Obj
Subjective Average Objective Average Average Change since last period
Broncos 1.333 1.667 1.500 0.604 Rising
Seahawks 1.667 2.778 2.222 0.299 Rising
Patriots 4.250 5.222 4.736 1.056 Rising
Saints 3.833 5.667 4.750 2.250 Rising
Dolphins 8.000 7.000 7.500 3.563 Rising
Bears 4.667 11.222 7.944 1.056 Rising
Ravens 8.500 10.889 9.694 2.389 Rising
Chiefs 8.250 11.778 10.014 4.528 Rising
Bengals 6.667 13.556 10.111 1.785 Rising
Colts 11.417 9.778 10.597 6.320 Rising
Texans 11.167 12.444 11.806 -6.118 Falling
Cowboys 12.667 12.778 12.722 2.966 Rising
Packers 11.250 15.889 13.569 -5.048 Falling
Falcons 14.667 12.889 13.778 -4.424 Falling
49ers 12.250 18.444 15.347 -8.264 Falling
Panthers 20.833 10.667 15.750 5.688 Rising
Lions 15.833 16.667 16.250 1.813 Rising
Jets 20.167 13.000 16.583 6.042 Rising
Titans 16.667 19.889 18.278 2.472 Rising
Chargers 19.083 21.667 20.375 -2.312 Falling
Bills 23.750 18.111 20.931 -0.639 Falling
Eagles 20.417 23.000 21.708 -2.187 Falling
Rams 21.167 24.778 22.972 -5.097 Falling
Browns 25.667 21.889 23.778 5.660 Rising
Cardinals 23.167 24.889 24.028 -3.007 Falling
Giants 27.417 23.333 25.375 -4.375 Falling
Buccaneers 30.417 20.778 25.597 -1.451 Falling
Raiders 28.750 24.444 26.597 1.632 Rising
Vikings 28.000 26.333 27.167 -3.084 Falling
Steelers 27.250 27.222 27.236 -1.132 Falling
Redskins 26.833 28.667 27.750 -3.396 Falling
Jaguars 32.000 30.667 31.333 0.417 Rising

Observations:

  • Overall, the top 12 is still 9:3 AFC:NFC.
  • Neat, some conference clusters have developed: 5 AFC teams from Ravens to Texans, then 6 NFC teams from Cowboys to Lions, then 4 AFC teams from Jets to Bills.
  • Chargers have dropped 2.3 spots overall this week. Titans rose 2.4 spots. So they basically swapped positions
  • Broncos have actually gone up in the rankings this week.
  • Eagles continuing to fall back to earth

Overall Standard Deviation

Subj vs Obj
Subjective Average Objective Average Standard Deviation Change since last period
Broncos 1.333 1.667 0.587 -1.159 Falling
Jaguars 32.000 30.667 1.620 0.942 Rising
Seahawks 1.667 2.778 1.726 -0.230 Falling
Saints 3.833 5.667 1.812 -1.428 Falling
Chargers 19.083 21.667 2.015 -1.294 Falling
Vikings 28.000 26.333 2.271 -0.608 Falling
Cowboys 12.667 12.778 2.603 -1.678 Falling
Patriots 4.250 5.222 2.749 -1.039 Falling
Redskins 26.833 28.667 2.820 -2.368 Falling
Colts 11.417 9.778 2.831 -1.122 Falling
Cardinals 23.167 24.889 2.844 -1.033 Falling
Dolphins 8.000 7.000 3.110 -0.620 Falling
Steelers 27.250 27.222 3.131 -0.855 Falling
Browns 25.667 21.889 3.345 1.411 Rising
Falcons 14.667 12.889 3.393 0.525 Rising
Rams 21.167 24.778 3.411 -0.193 Falling
Titans 16.667 19.889 3.443 0.420 Rising
Texans 11.167 12.444 3.507 0.184 Rising
Raiders 28.750 24.444 4.308 1.604 Rising
Lions 15.833 16.667 4.316 0.643 Rising
Bills 23.750 18.111 4.390 -0.257 Falling
Chiefs 8.250 11.778 4.810 -1.894 Falling
Eagles 20.417 23.000 5.105 -0.283 Falling
Giants 27.417 23.333 5.339 0.289 Rising
49ers 12.250 18.444 5.344 -1.246 Falling
Jets 20.167 13.000 5.450 -0.612 Falling
Bengals 6.667 13.556 5.652 2.438 Rising
Ravens 8.500 10.889 5.679 1.899 Rising
Packers 11.250 15.889 5.863 -0.424 Falling
Bears 4.667 11.222 5.893 2.143 Rising
Buccaneers 30.417 20.778 5.961 -1.263 Falling
Panthers 20.833 10.667 6.638 -0.881 Falling

Observations:

  • Broncos' ranking became even more consistent.
  • In fact, teams in general saw their ranking become more consistent as 21 teams saw their Standard Deviation go down this week.
  • 7 of the 10 most inconsistent teams are NFC teams.

Difference in Averages

Subj vs Obj
Subjective Average Objective Average Standard Deviation Change since last period
Bengals 6.667 13.556 6.889 4.431 Rising
Bears 4.667 11.222 6.556 4.556 Rising
49ers 12.250 18.444 6.194 -1.139 Rising
Packers 11.250 15.889 4.639 -2.069 Rising
Rams 21.167 24.778 3.611 3.861 Rising
Chiefs 8.250 11.778 3.528 -2.389 Rising
Titans 16.667 19.889 3.222 1.722 Rising
Chargers 19.083 21.667 2.583 1.458 Rising
Eagles 20.417 23.000 2.583 -1.125 Rising
Ravens 8.500 10.889 2.389 0.556 Rising
Saints 3.833 5.667 1.833 1.833 Rising
Redskins 26.833 28.667 1.833 1.291 Rising
Cardinals 23.167 24.889 1.722 3.014 Rising
Texans 11.167 12.444 1.278 -1.597 Rising
Seahawks 1.667 2.778 1.111 -0.597 Rising
Patriots 4.250 5.222 0.972 2.555 Rising
Lions 15.833 16.667 0.833 2.708 Rising
Broncos 1.333 1.667 0.333 -1.209 Rising
Cowboys 12.667 12.778 0.111 -3.264 Rising
Steelers 27.250 27.222 -0.028 -0.070 Rising
Dolphins 8.000 7.000 -1.000 1.375 Rising
Jaguars 32.000 30.667 -1.333 -0.833 Rising
Colts 11.417 9.778 -1.639 -4.306 Rising
Vikings 28.000 26.333 -1.667 -1.500 Rising
Falcons 14.667 12.889 -1.778 -3.820 Rising
Browns 25.667 21.889 -3.778 -2.153 Rising
Giants 27.417 23.333 -4.083 -4.083 Rising
Raiders 28.750 24.444 -4.306 -3.598 Rising
Bills 23.750 18.111 -5.639 0.444 Rising
Jets 20.167 13.000 -7.167 2.083 Rising
Buccaneers 30.417 20.778 -9.639 -0.097 Rising
Panthers 20.833 10.667 -10.167 1.958 Rising

Observations:

  • As down as people seem to be on the 49ers now, it seems the 49ers have a little more to fall.
  • Chiefs and Chargers are both slightly ranked above their stats suggest.
  • Yes, the Dolphins are a top-10 team. Who saw that coming this year? Not any of the subjective ranker, most had them 18-23, with NFL.com ranking them 14th to start the season.
  • The Giants looked bad, yes. But they could be better than they seem.
  • Don't sleep on the Raiders, Bills or Jets.
  • As bad as Tampa Bay has seemed, they've been playing a lot better than that. Unfortunately it hasn't translated into wins.
  • Pundits still way down on the Panthers.

Sources

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