2013 NFL Power Ranking Consensus, Week 3: Chargers and Chiefs climbing the ranks

That was one of the more fun wins in recent memory, wasn't it? It was a statement win: the San Diego Chargers are capable of winning a shootout. Who cares about the subpar defense, did you notice Philip Rivers has been fixed?!

The overall narrative when it comes to talking about the Chargers this week has been, "yeah they won, but ...", which is valid. Despite recent trends showing they should be, let's not anoint the Chargers as Super Bowl champions just yet. Still, it was a great win and the Chargers were rewarded nicely in the rankings.

Notable Quotes

This season, Philip Rivers has delivered a big "FU" -- as in, five touchdown passes to you, Eddie Royal -- to his detractors. All those who said Rivers' game was in decline and that the Chargers wideout stunk had to eat it on Sunday.

How's this for a stat line? Rivers was 36-of-47 passing for 419 yards and three scores. He even had a 12-yard run, which, for him, is like Tony Dorsett going for 99.

-- NFL.com

The Chargers continue to be the NFL's Rubik's Cube. As soon as you think you have them figured out, they reveal another totally screwed up side. Kudos to Mike McCoy, though, on his first win -- and especially for keeping his team together on a short week after a Monday night meltdown against Houston.

-- Sports Illustrated

Philip Rivers showed up in a big way Sunday. Rivers was 7-of-9 against extra rushers in the fourth quarter, including the crucial TD to Eddie Royal.

-- ESPN

Division Averages

Division	Avg Ranking
NFC West	11.9375
NFC North	14.7500
AFC East	15.4250
AFC West	15.5375
NFC South	15.9750
AFC South	18.6125
AFC North	19.8125
NFC East	19.9500

Observations

• So last week, all four NFC teams were ranked higher than all four AFC teams. Things have shifted quite a bit this week.

Stock Rising

Team	Week 2 Average	Week 3 Average	Difference
SDG	25.865	18.063	7.802
KC	21.635	14.542	7.093
BUF	25.750	20.292	5.458
MIA	16.250	11.063	5.187
ARI	25.692	21.021	4.671

Observations

• Oh man, it's so satisfying to see the Chargers atop this list.
• Chiefs aren't too far behind either. The Chargers and Chiefs actually are why the AFC West climbed as a division so much this week to become the 4th-best division in the NFL.

Stock Falling

Team	Week 2 Average	Week 3 Average	Difference
WAS	16.904	24.354	-7.450
SF	2.769	7.083	-4.314
CAR	17.500	21.438	-3.938
PHI	15.808	19.521	-3.713
IND	13.635	16.917	-3.282

Observations

• Everyone off the Redskins bandwagon! RGIII isn't the second coming! Okay, that's a stretch, but Washington has some issues still.
• After looking impressive in their opening game, it looked like the 49ers missed their flight to Seattle

Subjective Average

	Subjective
Broncos	2	1	1	2	1	1	2	2	1	1	1	1		1.333		0.513
Seahawks	1	2	2	1	2	2	1	1	2	2	2	2		1.667		1.025
49ers	3	3	6	3	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	3		3.417		-1.878
Texans	4	4	4	6	3	3	5	4	4	5	4	5		4.250		0.673
Packers	5	6	8	4	5	5	4	6	6	4	5	4		5.167		0.987
Patriots	7	5	3	9	8	8	6	5	5	10	7	6		6.583		-1.198
Saints	8	11	5	5	6	7	8	7	7	6	6	8		7.000		0.231
Bears	9	7	9	7	7	10	7	8	8	7	8	9		8.000		1.308
Falcons	6	8	7	8	10	9	9	10	9	8	9	7		8.333		-0.102
Bengals	10	9	12	11	12	11	10	11	10	9	13	10		10.667		0.564
Ravens	11	12	15	10	13	6	12	9	11	11	12	12		11.167		-0.552
Chiefs	13	10	11	12	9	13	13	12	13	12	10	11		11.583		6.186
Dolphins	12	13	10	14	11	12	11	14	12	13	11	14		12.250		5.750
Cowboys	15	14	13	13	14	16	14	13	15	14	14	13		14.000		-2.231
Colts	14	15	14	17	16	19	15	15	14	16	15	17		15.583		-2.814
Chargers	16	16	17	18	20	14	16	20	21	17	16	19		17.500		8.731
Eagles	19	19	18	20	23	15	17	16	18	15	17	15		17.667		-3.052
Rams	17	18	16	16	17	20	18	18	20	20	18	18		18.000		-1.538
Lions	18	17	21	19	22	18	20	19	16	18	19	21		19.000		-2.923
Titans	22	20	19	15	15	23	22	22	17	22	20	23		20.000		1.308
Giants	20	24	22	21	19	22	25	17	24	19	23	16		21.000		-3.538
Cardinals	21	23	20	22	21	17	19	25	22	23	21	26		21.667		3.718
Bills	26	21	25	23	18	24	21	26	26	26	22	22		23.333		3.667
Redskins	24	26	27	26	28	26	24	23	19	21	25	20		24.083		-5.775
Vikings	23	25	24	25	24	25	26	21	25	24	24	24		24.167		-2.628
Steelers	25	27	23	24	26	29	29	24	27	27	27	25		26.083		-1.852
Jets	28	29	26	30	25	28	27	28	23	28	26	29		27.250		0.058
Panthers	27	28	29	31	30	27	23	27	28	25	28	27		27.500		-4.500
Raiders	29	31	28	29	27	21	30	29	29	29	30	31		28.583		1.571
Buccaneers	30	22	30	28	29	31	28	30	30	30	29	30		28.917		-1.455
Browns	31	30	31	27	31	30	31	31	31	31	31	28		30.250		-0.250
Jaguars	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32		32.000		0.000

Observations:

• Last week, the 49ers were at the top of the subjective rankings. This week, it's the Broncos. The same thing happened last year: a team gets to the top of the rankings, and they promptly lose the next week. Hmmm, put Oakland down for Upset of the Week?
• Seattle is barely behind the Broncos, but the Broncos got twice as many first-place votes as Seattle.
• The Chargers are 1/6th a spot higher than the Eagles this week.
• Three of four AFC West teams are ranked in the top half of the league.
• Surprise sleeper: Dolphins?

Subjective Standard Deviation

	Subjective
Jaguars	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32		0.000		0.000
Seahawks	1	2	2	1	2	2	1	1	2	2	2	2		0.471		-0.350
Broncos	2	1	1	2	1	1	2	2	1	1	1	1		0.471		-0.298
Texans	4	4	4	6	3	3	5	4	4	5	4	5		0.829		-0.440
49ers	3	3	6	3	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	3		0.862		0.363
Cowboys	15	14	13	13	14	16	14	13	15	14	14	13		0.913		-0.933
Bears	9	7	9	7	7	10	7	8	8	7	8	9		1.000		-0.682
Packers	5	6	8	4	5	5	4	6	6	4	5	4		1.143		-0.263
Falcons	6	8	7	8	10	9	9	10	9	8	9	7		1.179		-1.045
Bengals	10	9	12	11	12	11	10	11	10	9	13	10		1.179		-0.244
Vikings	23	25	24	25	24	25	26	21	25	24	24	24		1.213		-0.848
Dolphins	12	13	10	14	11	12	11	14	12	13	11	14		1.299		-0.920
Browns	31	30	31	27	31	30	31	31	31	31	31	28		1.299		0.059
Chiefs	13	10	11	12	9	13	13	12	13	12	10	11		1.320		-0.904
Rams	17	18	16	16	17	20	18	18	20	20	18	18		1.354		-0.781
Colts	14	15	14	17	16	19	15	15	14	16	15	17		1.441		-1.524
Saints	8	11	5	5	6	7	8	7	7	6	6	8		1.581		-0.425
Lions	18	17	21	19	22	18	20	19	16	18	19	21		1.683		-0.843
Steelers	25	27	23	24	26	29	29	24	27	27	27	25		1.847		-0.307
Jets	28	29	26	30	25	28	27	28	23	28	26	29		1.876		-0.061
Patriots	7	5	3	9	8	8	6	5	5	10	7	6		1.891		0.680
Panthers	27	28	29	31	30	27	23	27	28	25	28	27		2.021		-0.521
Chargers	16	16	17	18	20	14	16	20	21	17	16	19		2.021		-0.271
Ravens	11	12	15	10	13	6	12	9	11	11	12	12		2.115		-0.223
Buccaneers	30	22	30	28	29	31	28	30	30	30	29	30		2.253		0.607
Eagles	19	19	18	20	23	15	17	16	18	15	17	15		2.285		-1.406
Cardinals	21	23	20	22	21	17	19	25	22	23	21	26		2.357		0.299
Bills	26	21	25	23	18	24	21	26	26	26	22	22		2.494		0.346
Raiders	29	31	28	29	27	21	30	29	29	29	30	31		2.532		1.182
Redskins	24	26	27	26	28	26	24	23	19	21	25	20		2.722		-0.817
Giants	20	24	22	21	19	22	25	17	24	19	23	16		2.739		0.302
Titans	22	20	19	15	15	23	22	22	17	22	20	23		2.799		0.128

Observations:

• Jags: yup.
• The Broncos and Seahawks having the same Standard Deviation just means they are battling for the top spot. Right now they could really just be interchangeable, I think the deciding factor would be where the game was played if they played each other.
• Chargers one of the more inconsistently-ranked teams.
• The Chargers' next opponent - the Titans - are the least consistently-ranked team; though there's a decent number of rankers who think they're 22-23.

Objective Average

	Objective
Broncos	1	1	5	8	2	1	1	4		2.875		-1.875
Seahawks	2	2	10	5	3	2	2	1		3.375		-0.375
Patriots	4	3	1	4	19	4	3	2		5.000		-2.000
Saints	6	8	7	1	18	3	5	8		7.000		1.000
Texans	10	7	4	2	5	18	6	5		7.125		0.875
Dolphins	15	4	18	3	4	14	9	12		9.875		4.625
Bears	8	9	12	7	6	24	8	6		10.000		0.000
Falcons	9	10	9	6	20	7	11	11		10.375		2.625
49ers	12	5	2	12	28	20	4	3		10.750		-6.750
Packers	3	11	3	21	15	28	7	7		11.875		-5.875
Ravens	13	6	11	14	24	17	10	9		13.000		-4.000
Bengals	7	12	14	16	11	23	12	10		13.125		-0.625
Panthers	5	18	24	24	14	5	16	17		15.375		-3.375
Lions	19	23	15	26	8	15	17	14		17.125		-0.625
Bills	21	15	25	15	13	11	15	23		17.250		7.250
Cowboys	23	24	8	17	23	8	21	15		17.375		0.125
Chiefs	17	22	30	9	1	10	24	27		17.500		8.000
Rams	26	13	26	13	17	13	13	21		17.750		2.750
Jets	24	19	28	18	10	9	18	18		18.000		3.500
Colts	18	14	21	10	12	19	26	26		18.250		-3.750
Chargers	22	17	16	11	22	25	14	22		18.625		6.875
Buccaneers	14	25	19	28	9	6	25	29		19.375		-0.875
Cardinals	28	20	29	20	16	12	19	19		20.375		5.625
Giants	25	26	6	27	29	16	23	16		21.000		-2.500
Eagles	11	27	22	23	7	29	27	25		21.375		-4.375
Titans	27	16	23	19	21	22	20	24		21.500		-0.500
Vikings	30	21	20	31	27	21	22	20		24.000		1.000
Redskins	16	31	17	32	26	32	30	13		24.625		-9.125
Steelers	20	30	13	30	30	30	28	28		26.125		-1.625
Raiders	29	29	31	22	25	27	29	31		27.875		2.625
Browns	31	28	27	25	31	26	31	30		28.625		0.875
Jaguars	32	32	32	29	32	31	32	32		31.500		0.500

Observations:

• More sources! New this week: Massey and ARGH ratings. Those are in addition to old standbys returning this week.
• Still using the DAVE rankings for Football Outsiders
• Chargers are all over the board, and in fact are kind of the opposite to the Buccaneers. Some sites are high on Bucs and down on Chargers, or vice-versa.
• The Patriots may not have looked impressive in their first two games, but they're still doing something right.
• It's no longer unanimous that the Jaguars are the worst team. Amusingly, the two sites that don't have the Jaguars ranked last do have the Redskins as last.
• Aikman has the Chiefs ranked 1st. That seems like a bit of a ... stretch. In fact, the Chiefs are ranked anywhere from 1st to 30th.

Objective Standard Deviation

	Objective
Jaguars	32	32	32	29	32	31	32	32		1.000		1.000
Browns	31	28	27	25	31	26	31	30		2.288		0.788
Broncos	1	1	5	8	2	1	1	4		2.421		2.421
Seahawks	2	2	10	5	3	2	2	1		2.736		1.736
Raiders	29	29	31	22	25	27	29	31		2.891		2.391
Titans	27	16	23	19	21	22	20	24		3.123		-0.877
Falcons	9	10	9	6	20	7	11	11		3.998		2.998
Vikings	30	21	20	31	27	21	22	20		4.301		-0.699
Bengals	7	12	14	16	11	23	12	10		4.484		1.984
Chargers	22	17	16	11	22	25	14	22		4.526		3.026
Texans	10	7	4	2	5	18	6	5		4.649		3.649
Bills	21	15	25	15	13	11	15	23		4.737		3.237
Saints	6	8	7	1	18	3	5	8		4.743		4.743
Ravens	13	6	11	14	24	17	10	9		5.196		1.196
Lions	19	23	15	26	8	15	17	14		5.231		4.731
Cardinals	28	20	29	20	16	12	19	19		5.314		4.314
Dolphins	15	4	18	3	4	14	9	12		5.372		1.872
Patriots	4	3	1	4	19	4	3	2		5.385		4.385
Rams	26	13	26	13	17	13	13	21		5.449		-3.051
Bears	8	9	12	7	6	24	8	6		5.590		1.590
Colts	18	14	21	10	12	19	26	26		5.629		1.129
Steelers	20	30	13	30	30	30	28	28		5.883		1.383
Jets	24	19	28	18	10	9	18	18		5.937		5.437
Cowboys	23	24	8	17	23	8	21	15		6.143		1.643
Panthers	5	18	24	24	14	5	16	17		6.855		0.855
Giants	25	26	6	27	29	16	23	16		7.246		4.746
Redskins	16	31	17	32	26	32	30	13		7.482		-1.018
Eagles	11	27	22	23	7	29	27	25		7.516		5.516
Buccaneers	14	25	19	28	9	6	25	29		8.260		0.760
Packers	3	11	3	21	15	28	7	7		8.358		5.358
49ers	12	5	2	12	28	20	4	3		8.671		7.671
Chiefs	17	22	30	9	1	10	24	27		9.421		6.921

Observations:

• Remember above how I said the Chiefs were ranked anywhere from 1st to 30th? Well that gives them the title of least consistently-ranked team.
• 49ers, Packers and Buccaneers aren't too far behind the Chiefs.
• Interesting: 8 of the 9 most inconsistently-ranked teams are in the NFC.
• Chargers are in the top 30% in ranking consistency, though their Standard Deviation is still relatively high.

Overall Average

	Subj vs Obj
Broncos	1.333	2.875		2.104		-0.681
Seahawks	1.667	3.375		2.521		0.325
Texans	4.250	7.125		5.688		0.774
Patriots	6.583	5.000		5.792		-1.600
Saints	7.000	7.000		7.000		0.615
49ers	3.417	10.750		7.083		-4.314
Packers	5.167	11.875		8.521		-2.444
Bears	8.000	10.000		9.000		0.654
Falcons	8.333	10.375		9.354		1.261
Dolphins	12.250	9.875		11.063		5.187
Bengals	10.667	13.125		11.896		-0.031
Ravens	11.167	13.000		12.083		-2.275
Chiefs	11.583	17.500		14.542		7.093
Cowboys	14.000	17.375		15.688		-1.053
Colts	15.583	18.250		16.917		-3.282
Rams	18.000	17.750		17.875		0.606
Chargers	17.500	18.625		18.063		7.802
Lions	19.000	17.125		18.063		-1.775
Eagles	17.667	21.375		19.521		-3.713
Bills	23.333	17.250		20.292		5.458
Titans	20.000	21.500		20.750		0.404
Giants	21.000	21.000		21.000		-3.019
Cardinals	21.667	20.375		21.021		4.671
Panthers	27.500	15.375		21.438		-3.938
Jets	27.250	18.000		22.625		1.779
Vikings	24.167	24.000		24.083		-0.814
Buccaneers	28.917	19.375		24.146		-1.165
Redskins	24.083	24.625		24.354		-7.450
Steelers	26.083	26.125		26.104		-1.739
Raiders	28.583	27.875		28.229		2.098
Browns	30.250	28.625		29.438		0.312
Jaguars	32.000	31.500		31.750		0.250

Observations:

• The Broncos retain their top spot, with the Seahawks still not far behind.
• Does it console anyone out there that the Chargers lost in Week 1 to the third-highest ranked team (overall) in the NFL?
• It's nice to see that even overall, the top-12 is evenly split between NFC and AFC teams. If we seeded teams based on rankings, the Chiefs would just miss out on the playoffs.
• Chargers remain right around the middle.

Overall Standard Deviation

	Subj vs Obj
Jaguars	32.000	31.500		0.678		0.678
Broncos	1.333	2.875		1.746		0.974
Browns	30.250	28.625		1.934		0.645
Seahawks	1.667	3.375		1.956		1.102
Raiders	28.583	27.875		2.704		1.429
Falcons	8.333	10.375		2.868		0.213
Vikings	24.167	24.000		2.879		-0.019
Titans	20.000	21.500		3.023		0.137
Bengals	10.667	13.125		3.214		1.549
Saints	7.000	7.000		3.240		1.354
Chargers	17.500	18.625		3.309		1.092
Texans	4.250	7.125		3.323		1.704
Rams	18.000	17.750		3.604		-0.329
Lions	19.000	17.125		3.673		1.310
Dolphins	12.250	9.875		3.730		1.025
Bears	8.000	10.000		3.750		1.596
Ravens	11.167	13.000		3.780		1.102
Patriots	6.583	5.000		3.788		2.352
Cardinals	21.667	20.375		3.877		1.915
Colts	15.583	18.250		3.953		0.687
Steelers	26.083	26.125		3.986		1.392
Cowboys	14.000	17.375		4.281		1.207
Bills	23.333	17.250		4.647		2.406
Giants	21.000	21.000		5.050		2.579
Redskins	24.083	24.625		5.188		0.562
Eagles	17.667	21.375		5.388		1.783
Jets	27.250	18.000		6.062		3.382
Packers	5.167	11.875		6.287		4.579
49ers	3.417	10.750		6.590		5.566
Chiefs	11.583	17.500		6.704		3.236
Buccaneers	28.917	19.375		7.224		2.850
Panthers	27.500	15.375		7.519		2.581

Observations:

• There's consensus at the top and bottom of the rankings.
• There's relatively good consensus about the Chargers' positioning.

Difference in Averages

	Subj vs Obj
49ers	3.417	10.750		7.333		4.871
Packers	5.167	11.875		6.708		6.862
Chiefs	11.583	17.500		5.917		-1.814
Eagles	17.667	21.375		3.708		1.323
Cowboys	14.000	17.375		3.375		-2.356
Texans	4.250	7.125		2.875		-0.202
Colts	15.583	18.250		2.667		0.936
Bengals	10.667	13.125		2.458		1.189
Falcons	8.333	10.375		2.042		-2.727
Bears	8.000	10.000		2.000		1.308
Ravens	11.167	13.000		1.833		3.448
Seahawks	1.667	3.375		1.708		1.400
Broncos	1.333	2.875		1.542		2.388
Titans	20.000	21.500		1.500		1.808
Chargers	17.500	18.625		1.125		1.856
Redskins	24.083	24.625		0.542		3.350
Steelers	26.083	26.125		0.042		-0.227
Saints	7.000	7.000		0.000		-0.769
Giants	21.000	21.000		0.000		-1.039
Vikings	24.167	24.000		-0.167		-3.629
Rams	18.000	17.750		-0.250		-4.289
Jaguars	32.000	31.500		-0.500		-0.500
Raiders	28.583	27.875		-0.708		-1.054
Cardinals	21.667	20.375		-1.292		-1.907
Patriots	6.583	5.000		-1.583		0.802
Browns	30.250	28.625		-1.625		-1.125
Lions	19.000	17.125		-1.875		-2.298
Dolphins	12.250	9.875		-2.375		1.125
Bills	23.333	17.250		-6.083		-3.583
Jets	27.250	18.000		-9.250		-3.442
Buccaneers	28.917	19.375		-9.542		-0.580
Panthers	27.500	15.375		-12.125		-1.125

Observations:

• Early in the season, the Objective Rankings aren't as reliable predictors as they are in the later season. However, do the 49ers have more to fall in coming games?
• Are rankers a little too high on the Chiefs so far?
• Chargers are pretty consistent in their ranking across the board. Not phenomenal, nor are they terrible.
• Wow, are the rankers way down on the Bills, Jets, Buccaneers and Panthers. It'll be interesting to see which way they correct, if they end up playing better than the perception is or not.

Sources

• ESPN
• Fox
• CBS
• USA Today
• Sports Illustrated
• ProFootballTalk
• NFL.com
• SportingNews
• SB Nation
• Reddit
• Associated Press
• ProFootballFocus
• Football Outsiders
• Team Rankings
• Sagarin
• BeatGraphs
• Aikman Efficiency
• Pro Football Reference
• Massey
• ARGH