2013 NFL Power Rankings Consensus, Week 2: 49ers, Broncos battle for top spot

If the preseason rankings are based on nothing but preconceived notions and gut feelings, then the first 2 weeks of the season are for jumping to conclusions. Based on reactions following the first game of the season, the Baltimore Ravens are probably just as bad as the Jacksonville Jaguars this year. Take it to the bank.

As Football Outsiders' Aaron Schatz likes to point out: historically, weeks 1-2 do a terrible job of predicting weeks 3-17. Basically, you can't use these first two games to definitively point out how good or bad a team is.

But that won't stop us (and the other rankers) from trying!

Notable Quotes

Philip Rivers was 1-of-7 with a pick-six in the fourth quarter Monday night. Including last year, Rivers' 7.7 fourth-quarter QBR is less than half of any other QB.

-- ESPN

Blowing a big lead to open the season won’t do much more than tease hopes, but there were positive [sic] to take away and a half-game glimpse of what they could be keeps them in this range of the rankings.

-- ProFootballFocus

The San Diego Chargers need a leader. Someone to get fired up when things start to go south. They also need depth on defense, better tackling, and the forethought not to give Mathews the ball up the middle two times in a row. The first half of Monday night's game, the 2013 Chargers were putting on a show. A bit after halftime, the 2012 Chargers appeared and waived their white jerseys in surrender.

-- Reddit

Division Averages

Division	Avg Ranking
NFC West	11.7667
NFC North	13.4167
NFC East	15.7500
NFC South	16.0000
AFC South	17.9000
AFC East	18.9500
AFC North	19.0000
AFC West	19.2167

Stock Rising

Team	Week 1 Average	Week 2 Average	Difference
PHI	24.000	15.808	8.192
NYJ	30.222	24.404	5.818
TEN	26.000	21.154	4.846
DET	21.111	16.288	4.823
NO	11.778	7.615	4.163

Stock Falling

Team	Week 1 Average	Week 2 Average	Difference
PIT	16.444	24.365	-7.921
MIN	16.333	23.269	-6.936
ATL	4.444	10.615	-6.171
WAS	11.111	16.904	-5.793
NYG	12.444	17.981	-5.537

Subjective Average

As a refresher: these rankings are the ones that has actual people ranking the teams based on their gut feelings. You'll see in a moment that some of these sites may even just throw darts at a board, or have a chicken pecking at numbers. I then take all those rankings and average them together, then sort the table based on the average ranking. This method evens out the peaks and valleys and allows us to get a more reliable "big picture" view of the perception of where teams rank in the league.

	Subjective
49ers	1	1	2	2	2	2	1	2	1	2	1	1	2		1.539		-0.095
Broncos	3	2	1	1	1	1	2	3	2	1	2	2	3		1.846		0.821
Seahawks	2	3	3	3	3	4	3	1	3	3	3	3	1		2.692		-0.136
Texans	6	4	5	4	6	3	4	4	5	5	4	6	8		4.923		2.744
Patriots	5	5	4	6	5	9	5	5	4	6	5	5	6		5.385		0.393
Packers	7	6	8	5	7	6	9	6	6	4	7	4	5		6.154		-0.487
Saints	8	12	6	7	4	8	7	9	8	7	6	8	4		7.231		4.547
Falcons	4	8	7	9	14	10	8	10	7	8	8	7	7		8.231		-3.787
Bears	9	7	9	11	8	12	6	12	9	9	10	9	10		9.308		4.136
Ravens	11	9	13	8	12	7	13	7	10	10	15	11	12		10.615		-3.282
Bengals	10	10	12	10	9	13	10	13	11	11	14	12	11		11.231		-2.231
Cowboys	13	13	10	12	10	14	12	8	13	12	11	10	15		11.769		4.120
Colts	12	11	11	13	11	15	11	11	12	13	9	16	21		12.769		-0.213
Eagles	14	16	15	22	15	5	15	14	17	14	12	13	18		14.615		9.385
Lions	18	14	20	14	17	11	17	18	14	17	13	19	17		16.077		5.034
Rams	15	15	14	15	18	17	16	15	18	21	16	20	14		16.462		0.649
Giants	16	20	19	16	20	16	19	17	21	16	20	14	13		17.462		-5.018
Chiefs	20	17	18	17	13	19	22	16	19	19	17	15	19		17.769		3.898
Dolphins	17	22	17	18	19	22	14	20	16	18	18	17	16		18.000		2.222
Redskins	19	18	22	23	21	20	18	21	15	15	19	18	9		18.308		-7.197
Titans	22	21	16	19	16	23	23	22	22	24	21	25	23		21.308		4.692
Vikings	21	19	23	21	22	18	20	19	24	22	22	24	25		21.539		-5.206
Panthers	24	27	24	20	26	27	21	24	20	20	23	23	20		23.000		-2.000
Steelers	23	26	21	24	24	29	25	23	23	25	27	21	24		24.231		-7.787
Cardinals	25	25	25	26	28	21	26	28	26	26	24	28	22		25.385		0.171
Chargers	26	23	28	30	30	24	24	27	28	23	25	26	27		26.231		-0.342
Bills	29	24	29	27	27	25	27	29	29	29	28	22	26		27.000		1.333
Jets	27	30	26	29	23	28	28	25	27	27	26	30	29		27.308		2.914
Buccaneers	28	28	27	25	25	30	29	26	25	28	29	29	28		27.462		-4.906
Browns	30	29	31	28	31	31	30	31	30	31	31	27	30		30.000		-4.778
Raiders	31	31	30	31	29	26	31	30	31	30	30	31	31		30.154		1.735
Jaguars	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32		32.000		-1.333

Observations:

• Wow, that's a lot of subjective sources. I should cut some of them down, maybe take out some of the less "accurate" rankers (I'm looking at you CBS and Walter Football)
• The top 13 is pretty well defined, from the 49ers down to the Colts.
• The next 7 is pretty well well defined. The middle-of-the-pack teams.
• The bottom teams (Titans on down) are the next grouping.
• Only 2 sites moved the Chargers up this week. All others dropped them down.

Subjective Standard Deviation

Refresher again: Standard Deviation is a tool in statistics to measure how much variance there is in a set of numbers. To put more simply: I use it to look at who's ranked the most- and least-consistently. In Standard Deviation, the lower the number, the more consistent the values in the set. For our purposes, this means the lower the Standard Deviation, the more consistent the rankings. The opposite is true too: the higher the number, the less consistent the rankings.

This table is sorted by most consistently–ranked to least consistently–ranked.

	Subjective
Jaguars	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32		0.000		-0.667
49ers	1	1	2	2	2	2	1	2	1	2	1	1	2		0.499		-0.186
Broncos	3	2	1	1	1	1	2	3	2	1	2	2	3		0.769		-0.174
Seahawks	2	3	3	3	3	4	3	1	3	3	3	3	1		0.821		-0.602
Patriots	5	5	4	6	5	9	5	5	4	6	5	5	6		1.211		-0.337
Browns	30	29	31	28	31	31	30	31	30	31	31	27	30		1.240		-1.059
Texans	6	4	5	4	6	3	4	4	5	5	4	6	8		1.269		-0.222
Raiders	31	31	30	31	29	26	31	30	31	30	30	31	31		1.350		1.036
Packers	7	6	8	5	7	6	9	6	6	4	7	4	5		1.406		-0.227
Bengals	10	10	12	10	9	13	10	13	11	11	14	12	11		1.423		-1.071
Buccaneers	28	28	27	25	25	30	29	26	25	28	29	29	28		1.646		-0.620
Bears	9	7	9	11	8	12	6	12	9	9	10	9	10		1.682		0.339
Cowboys	13	13	10	12	10	14	12	8	13	12	11	10	15		1.846		-0.578
Jets	27	30	26	29	23	28	28	25	27	27	26	30	29		1.937		1.151
Saints	8	12	6	7	4	8	7	9	8	7	6	8	4		2.006		-1.515
Cardinals	25	25	25	26	28	21	26	28	26	26	24	28	22		2.058		-0.695
Vikings	21	19	23	21	22	18	20	19	24	22	22	24	25		2.061		-0.994
Rams	15	15	14	15	18	17	16	15	18	21	16	20	14		2.135		-0.788
Bills	29	24	29	27	27	25	27	29	29	29	28	22	26		2.148		0.584
Steelers	23	26	21	24	24	29	25	23	23	25	27	21	24		2.154		-0.255
Dolphins	17	22	17	18	19	22	14	20	16	18	18	17	16		2.219		-0.971
Chiefs	20	17	18	17	13	19	22	16	19	19	17	15	19		2.224		-0.831
Falcons	4	8	7	9	14	10	8	10	7	8	8	7	7		2.224		0.653
Chargers	26	23	28	30	30	24	24	27	28	23	25	26	27		2.292		0.380
Ravens	11	9	13	8	12	7	13	7	10	10	15	11	12		2.338		1.183
Giants	16	20	19	16	20	16	19	17	21	16	20	14	13		2.437		0.487
Lions	18	14	20	14	17	11	17	18	14	17	13	19	17		2.526		-0.617
Panthers	24	27	24	20	26	27	21	24	20	20	23	23	20		2.542		-0.585
Titans	22	21	16	19	16	23	23	22	22	24	21	25	23		2.671		0.314
Colts	12	11	11	13	11	15	11	11	12	13	9	16	21		2.965		1.622
Redskins	19	18	22	23	21	20	18	21	15	15	19	18	9		3.539		1.115
Eagles	14	16	15	22	15	5	15	14	17	14	12	13	18		3.691		1.991

Observations:

• Well it only took 1 week to come up with a consensus worst team, and again it's the Jaguars. Is anyone surprised?
• Funny how the Redskins and Eagles are the two least consistent teams in the rankings after one game
• After being one of the more consistently-ranked teams last week, the Chargers are on the move towards inconsistency.

Objective Average

Look what makes a return this week! Albeit with just 2 sources, but it's a start.

I call these rankings the "Objective" rankings because unlike the rankings above, these are rankings based on statistical models of some sort. I use the term "Objective" loosely here because there is still some inherent bias in how the various models are constructed. Each ranking site has their own criteria in what they feel is success in the NFL.

All that said, these rankings are more objective as they remove perception and bias and produce rankings based on how well teams actually play, not how they're perceived to play.

	Objective
Broncos	1	1		1.000		-1.000
Patriots	2	4		3.000		-3.000
Seahawks	4	2		3.000		-3.000
49ers	5	3		4.000		-4.000
Packers	3	9		6.000		-6.000
Saints	8	8		8.000		-8.000
Texans	9	7		8.000		-8.000
Ravens	13	5		9.000		-9.000
Bears	14	6		10.000		-10.000
Panthers	6	18		12.000		-12.000
Bengals	10	15		12.500		-12.500
Falcons	12	14		13.000		-13.000
Dolphins	18	11		14.500		-14.500
Colts	19	10		14.500		-14.500
Redskins	7	24		15.500		-15.500
Lions	17	16		16.500		-16.500
Eagles	15	19		17.000		-17.000
Cowboys	22	13		17.500		-17.500
Giants	16	21		18.500		-18.500
Buccaneers	11	26		18.500		-18.500
Rams	29	12		20.500		-20.500
Titans	25	17		21.000		-21.000
Jets	21	22		21.500		-21.500
Bills	26	23		24.500		-24.500
Steelers	20	29		24.500		-24.500
Vikings	30	20		25.000		-25.000
Chiefs	23	28		25.500		-25.500
Chargers	24	27		25.500		-25.500
Cardinals	27	25		26.000		-26.000
Browns	28	31		29.500		-29.500
Raiders	31	30		30.500		-30.500
Jaguars	32	32		32.000		-32.000

Observations:

• Football Outsiders' ranking uses their DAVE ratings for now
• While we only have two sources so far, it doesn't stop us from seeing trends. For instance: the Broncos being the consensus best team, and the Jaguars the consensus worst team.

Objective Standard Deviation

	Objective
Saints	8	8		0.000		0.000
Broncos	1	1		0.000		0.000
Jaguars	32	32		0.000		0.000
Jets	21	22		0.500		0.500
Raiders	31	30		0.500		0.500
Lions	17	16		0.500		0.500
Cardinals	27	25		1.000		1.000
Falcons	12	14		1.000		1.000
Patriots	2	4		1.000		1.000
Seahawks	4	2		1.000		1.000
49ers	5	3		1.000		1.000
Texans	9	7		1.000		1.000
Bills	26	23		1.500		1.500
Browns	28	31		1.500		1.500
Chargers	24	27		1.500		1.500
Eagles	15	19		2.000		2.000
Chiefs	23	28		2.500		2.500
Giants	16	21		2.500		2.500
Bengals	10	15		2.500		2.500
Packers	3	9		3.000		3.000
Dolphins	18	11		3.500		3.500
Ravens	13	5		4.000		4.000
Bears	14	6		4.000		4.000
Titans	25	17		4.000		4.000
Cowboys	22	13		4.500		4.500
Steelers	20	29		4.500		4.500
Colts	19	10		4.500		4.500
Vikings	30	20		5.000		5.000
Panthers	6	18		6.000		6.000
Buccaneers	11	26		7.500		7.500
Rams	29	12		8.500		8.500
Redskins	7	24		8.500		8.500

Observations:

• Well that's quite the disparity for the Rams, Redskins and Buccaneers.
• Amusing that half the league has a Standard Deviation of under 2. In this context, it means FBO and TR models are within 4 rankings spots of each other. So, general agreement on their performance (and projections) through 1 game.
• Amusing too that there's consensus with the Saints at 8.

Overall Average

Now let's compare the two sets of data. We'll start with the "Overall Average" chart. This takes the Subjective Average and the Objective Average, and then averages those two numbers. This way it gives equal weight to both averages so that even though Subjective Average has a larger sample size, it doesn't drown out the Objective Average.

	Subj vs Obj
Broncos	1.846	1.000		1.423		1.244
49ers	1.539	4.000		2.769		-1.325
Seahawks	2.692	3.000		2.846		-0.290
Patriots	5.385	3.000		4.192		1.586
Packers	6.154	6.000		6.077		-0.410
Texans	4.923	8.000		6.462		1.205
Saints	7.231	8.000		7.615		4.163
Bears	9.308	10.000		9.654		3.790
Ravens	10.615	9.000		9.808		-2.475
Falcons	8.231	13.000		10.615		-6.171
Bengals	11.231	12.500		11.865		-2.865
Colts	12.769	14.500		13.635		-1.079
Cowboys	11.769	17.500		14.635		1.254
Eagles	14.615	17.000		15.808		8.192
Dolphins	18.000	14.500		16.250		3.972
Lions	16.077	16.500		16.288		4.823
Redskins	18.308	15.500		16.904		-5.793
Panthers	23.000	12.000		17.500		3.500
Giants	17.462	18.500		17.981		-5.537
Rams	16.462	20.500		18.481		-1.370
Titans	21.308	21.000		21.154		4.846
Chiefs	17.769	25.500		21.635		0.032
Buccaneers	27.462	18.500		22.981		-0.425
Vikings	21.539	25.000		23.269		-6.936
Steelers	24.231	24.500		24.365		-7.921
Jets	27.308	21.500		24.404		5.818
Cardinals	25.385	26.000		25.692		-0.136
Bills	27.000	24.500		25.750		2.583
Chargers	26.231	25.500		25.865		0.024
Browns	30.000	29.500		29.750		-4.528
Raiders	30.154	30.500		30.327		1.562
Jaguars	32.000	32.000		32.000		-1.333

Observations:

• The Broncos now take over the top spot from the 49ers.
• The Chargers now become the 4th-worst team in the league. That's a bit harsh ...
• There's a sharp delineation between the Chargers and the Browns. Showing that the Browns, Raiders and Jaguars are quite a bit worse than the Chargers, even though the Broowns are only one spot below San Diego.
• Same delineation between Rams and Titans. Everyone else is more or less evenly-spaced.

Overall Standard Deviation

The Overall Standard Deviation does not average anything out, it just takes the Standard Deviation across all the rankings. Yes this will even things out slightly, but it goes to show which teams have consensus across the board.

	Subj vs Obj
Jaguars	32.000	32.000		0.000		-0.667
Broncos	1.846	1.000		0.772		-0.171
Seahawks	2.692	3.000		0.854		-0.569
49ers	1.539	4.000		1.024		0.339
Raiders	30.154	30.500		1.275		0.961
Browns	30.000	29.500		1.289		-1.010
Patriots	5.385	3.000		1.436		-0.112
Texans	4.923	8.000		1.619		0.128
Bengals	11.231	12.500		1.665		-0.829
Packers	6.154	6.000		1.708		0.075
Saints	7.231	8.000		1.886		-1.635
Cardinals	25.385	26.000		1.962		-0.791
Bears	9.308	10.000		2.154		0.811
Chargers	26.231	25.500		2.217		0.305
Bills	27.000	24.500		2.241		0.677
Lions	16.077	16.500		2.363		-0.780
Giants	17.462	18.500		2.471		0.521
Steelers	24.231	24.500		2.594		0.185
Falcons	8.231	13.000		2.655		1.084
Ravens	10.615	9.000		2.678		1.523
Jets	27.308	21.500		2.680		1.894
Dolphins	18.000	14.500		2.705		-0.485
Titans	21.308	21.000		2.886		0.529
Vikings	21.539	25.000		2.898		-0.157
Cowboys	11.769	17.500		3.074		0.650
Colts	12.769	14.500		3.266		1.923
Chiefs	17.769	25.500		3.468		0.413
Eagles	14.615	17.000		3.605		1.905
Rams	16.462	20.500		3.933		1.010
Buccaneers	27.462	18.500		4.374		2.108
Redskins	18.308	15.500		4.626		2.202
Panthers	23.000	12.000		4.938		1.811

Observations:

• Across the board, every site has the Jaguars last. I saw them play on Sunday, I agree with that ranking.
• Once factoring in all sources, the Panthers become the least consistently–ranked team overall, just beating out the Redskins.

Difference in Averages

This compares the Subjective average ranking with the Objective average ranking. This tells us just how far off people are from the formulas. A positive number means people think they will be or are better than the stats indicate, a negative number means the math thinks they're better than what people think. The closer to 0 this number is, the more in agreement the Subjective and Objective rankings are.

Generally speaking, the Subjective Rankings tend to be more reactionary to a team's performance than the mathematical models are. You'll often end up with major peaks and valleys for a team in the Subjective rankings, where the Objective rankings are more steady.

	Subj vs Obj
Chiefs	17.769	25.500		7.731		29.398
Cowboys	11.769	17.500		5.731		21.620
Falcons	8.231	13.000		4.769		9.213
Rams	16.462	20.500		4.039		21.150
Vikings	21.539	25.000		3.462		19.795
Texans	4.923	8.000		3.077		10.744
49ers	1.539	4.000		2.462		3.906
Eagles	14.615	17.000		2.385		26.385
Colts	12.769	14.500		1.731		14.287
Bengals	11.231	12.500		1.269		10.269
Giants	17.462	18.500		1.039		13.483
Saints	7.231	8.000		0.769		12.547
Bears	9.308	10.000		0.692		14.136
Cardinals	25.385	26.000		0.615		26.171
Lions	16.077	16.500		0.423		21.534
Raiders	30.154	30.500		0.346		32.235
Seahawks	2.692	3.000		0.308		2.864
Steelers	24.231	24.500		0.269		16.713
Jaguars	32.000	32.000		0.000		30.667
Packers	6.154	6.000		-0.154		5.513
Titans	21.308	21.000		-0.308		25.692
Browns	30.000	29.500		-0.500		24.722
Chargers	26.231	25.500		-0.731		25.158
Broncos	1.846	1.000		-0.846		1.821
Ravens	10.615	9.000		-1.615		5.718
Patriots	5.385	3.000		-2.385		3.393
Bills	27.000	24.500		-2.500		25.833
Redskins	18.308	15.500		-2.808		8.303
Dolphins	18.000	14.500		-3.500		16.722
Jets	27.308	21.500		-5.808		24.414
Buccaneers	27.462	18.500		-8.962		13.594
Panthers	23.000	12.000		-11.000		10.000

Observations:

• This table is usually good to identify the overrated teams and the sleepers. But with there only having been one game played, it's hard to have confidence in that conclusion just yet.
• However, it does help to think that the Panthers aren't nearly as bad as people think right now. Nor are the Chiefs really that good, yet.
• Chargers? Yeah, not that great.

Sources

• ESPN
• Fox
• CBS
• USA Today
• Sports Illustrated
• ProFootballTalk
• NFL.com
• SportingNews
• SB Nation
• Reddit
• Associated Press
• ProFootballFocus
• Walter Football
• Football Outsiders
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