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It's fun to be a fan...usually. We get to make decisions and form opinions on players every day with no ramifications...because our decisions and opinions don't really matter. However, following a team can be a lot more fun when we manage our expectations to a reasonable level, since I'm pretty sure that not every starter from the Chargers will make the Pro-Bowl.
Since there has been much talk on this site about Philip Rivers and his transition to the new offense, let's see what the realistic range of expectations for Rivers can/should/might be. I'll start with his new offensive coordinator, then his new head coach, then see how I can combine the two. I'll be looking at overall offense numbers before translating those into individual stats for Rivers.
Ken Whisenhunt
| Year | Team | Run Plays | Pass Plays | Run % | YP Run | Pass % | YP Pass | AYPP | QB | Comp % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004 | PIT | 618 | 358 | 63% | 4 | 37% | 8.3 | 5.1 | Ben Roethlisberger | 64% |
| 2005 | PIT | 549 | 379 | 59% | 4 | 41% | 8.2 | 5.4 | Ben Roethlisberger | 60% |
| 2006 | PIT | 469 | 523 | 47% | 4.2 | 53% | 7.7 | 5.5 | Ben Roethlisberger | 60% |
| 2007 | ARI | 402 | 590 | 41% | 3.6 | 59% | 7.2 | 5.4 | Kurt Warner | 60% |
| 2008 | ARI | 340 | 630 | 35% | 3.5 | 65% | 7.7 | 5.9 | Kurt Warner | 66% |
| 2009 | ARI | 365 | 594 | 38% | 4.1 | 62% | 7.1 | 5.6 | Kurt Warner | 66% |
| 2010 | ARI | 320 | 561 | 36% | 4.3 | 64% | 5.8 | 4.6 | Derek Anderson | 51% |
| 2011 | ARI | 389 | 550 | 41% | 4.2 | 59% | 7.2 | 5.2 | John Skelton/Kevin Kolb | 56% |
| 2012 | ARI | 352 | 608 | 37% | 3.4 | 63% | 5.6 | 4.1 | John Skelton/Kevin Kolb | 55% |
My first reaction when putting this table together was, WOW! Look at the difference between the first and last year in Pittsburgh, and the incredible drop off after Kurt Warner left Arizona.
Mike McCoy
| Year | Team | Run | Pass | Run % | YP Run | Pass % | YP Pass | AYPP | QB | Comp % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | DEN | 440 | 558 | 44% | 4.2 | 56% | 6.9 | 5.3 | Kyle Orton | 61% |
| 2010 | DEN | 398 | 580 | 41% | 3.9 | 59% | 7.4 | 5.5 | Kyle Orton | 58% |
| 2011 | DEN | 546 | 429 | 56% | 4.8 | 44% | 6.3 | 5 | Tim Tebow | 51% |
| 2012 | DEN | 481 | 588 | 45% | 3.8 | 55% | 7.9 | 5.8 | Peyton Manning | 68% |
Lots going on here too. So much change in offense from 2010-2012. This only affirms what we have heard about McCoy and how he is great at modifying an offense to suit his personnel.
Mike McCoy + Ken Whisenhunt + Philip Rivers = ?
How can we make sense of this? I thought I would take Whisenhunt's last season with Roethlisberger and his 3 seasons with Warner, as well as McCoy's two seasons with Orton, and average all those out into a season. I think it's fair to say that Rivers is not as good as Kurt Warner, but better than Big Ben was in 2006 (his first year when they really weren't leaning on the running game) and better than journeyman Kyle Orton, so this should be a fairly conservative projection.
| Year | Team | Run | Pass | Run % | YP Run | Pass % | YP Pass | AYPP | QB | Comp % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | SD | 402 | 579 | 41% | 3.9 | 59% | 7.3 | 5.5 | Philip Rivers | 62% |
I hesitate to include Peyton Manning's season in this projection because...well...it's hard to know if that offense was mostly Manning or how much of an influence McCoy had on it. But just for fun, I'll run another projection to include McCoy's 2012 season in the projection. Here it is:
| Year | Team | Run | Pass | Run % | YP Run | Pass % | YP Pass | AYPP | QB | Comp % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | SD | 414 | 580 | 42% | 3.9 | 58% | 7.4 | 5.6 | Philip Rivers | 63% |
That seems to be a pretty fair projection to me for this offense. So how does that project into individual season numbers for Rivers in a McCoy/Whisenhunt Offense?
| QB | Comp | Att | Yards | Comp % | TD | INT | Sacks | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Rivers | 333 | 522 | 3911 | 64% | 26 | 14 | 29 | 90.8 |
Now there are going to be A LOT of factors at work here that were not factored into these projections, namely the skill around each of the players and far too many others to account for (or even name). However, some of the posts on here the last couple days got me thinking about what to expect and I decided to take a look for myself. Personally, I will expect a bit under the projection for Rivers, just because it is his first season under the new offense and there have been quite a few personnel changes around him. For comparison purposes, here are Rivers' career averages in those categories as a starter:
| Comp | Att | Yards | Comp % | TD | INT | Sacks | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 322 | 505 | 3963 | 64% | 27 | 13 | 31 | 94.8 |
Looks to me like Philip Rivers is set up to have an "average" season. That's how I'm managing my expectations, what do you think?