2013 NFL Power Rankings Consensus, Week 14

When it comes to the Power Rankings, there's Seattle, and then there's everyone else.

I know I've talked about it before, but there's a common misconception about the Chargers this year, one I think stems from the period of time the Chargers were oscillating between wins and losses. See, there's this perception that the Chargers are very inconsistent this year. In fact, however, they're one of the, if not the most consistent team this year.

"How can this be?" you ask? Well, it's all about match-ups. The Chargers have a had a consistently-excellent offense, ranking in the top-3 of nearly all the objective ratings sites in Offense all season long. They've had an average Special Teams, so that's been a non-factor. Bringing the team down has been their historically-bad Defense. How bad is the defense? Remember the disastrous 2010 Chargers Special Teams? Yeah, they're that bad. The defense is worse (23.6%) than the offense is good (22.0%).

So how does a team with a top-flight offense and a historically bad defense seem so inconsistent? It's all about match-ups. The Chargers have won 5 games this year. 4 of those 5 wins have come against teams with defenses ranked in the bottom-3rd according to Football Outsiders (20th, 25th, 27th and 29th). As soon as they played teams with average or better defenses and a competent offense, they lose. (I can't explain the Oakland loss, however.)

This is a very consistent team, let's put all this inconsistency talk behind us, k?

Notable Quotes

The team with the best chance to finish with an all-time worst rating is now San Diego, although the Chargers' defense did improve a little bit this week.

Even after a shaky 23-of-37 showing versus Cincinnati, Philip Rivers remains within striking distance of Drew Brees' single-season record for completion percentage -- Rivers sits at an even 70 percent; Brees finished at 71.2. Of course, Brees' Saints also hung 547 points on the board that season (2011). The Chargers are on pace for just 372.

Dropping four of their last five, the Chargers fall two spots but find themselves still just on the outside edge of the wild card race. With three home games to come, all is not lost.

Division Averages

Stock Rising

Stock Falling

Teams just don't move as much as they used to in the early weeks of the season. #HipsterGrandpaTweet #IronicHashtags

Subjective Average

	Subjective
Seahawks	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1		1.000		0.000
Broncos	2	3	3	2	4	4	2	2	2	2	2		2.546		0.871
Panthers	3	2	5	4	2	2	3	3	3	4	5		3.273		0.894
Patriots	4	4	2	5	3	3	4	4	4	3	3		3.546		0.621
Saints	5	5	4	3	6	5	5	6	5	5	4		4.818		-2.568
49ers	6	7	8	6	5	7	7	5	7	6	6		6.364		1.136
Chiefs	7	8	6	7	9	8	6	9	6	7	7		7.273		-0.940
Bengals	8	6	7	8	8	6	8	7	8	8	8		7.455		-0.205
Eagles	10	9	10	11	7	10	13	12	10	10	10		10.182		1.318
Colts	9	11	9	12	12	12	11	11	9	9	11		10.546		0.204
Lions	12	10	12	9	13	13	10	8	11	11	9		10.727		1.690
Cowboys	11	12	11	10	10	9	12	14	13	12	13		11.546		0.287
Cardinals	13	13	13	13	14	11	9	10	12	13	12		12.091		-2.758
Ravens	14	14	14	14	11	14	16	13	14	14	14		13.818		3.182
Dolphins	17	15	16	16	15	19	14	15	15	15	17		15.818		4.099
Bears	15	20	17	15	18	18	15	18	16	16	15		16.636		-1.553
Chargers	16	17	15	18	20	16	18	16	17	17	18		17.091		-1.258
Steelers	18	16	21	19	19	21	20	20	19	18	19		19.091		-1.258
Giants	22	18	20	17	16	22	21	17	20	20	20		19.364		3.053
Rams	20	21	22	20	17	17	22	19	18	19	21		19.636		-1.553
Packers	19	24	19	21	23	15	17	30	21	21	16		20.546		-3.879
Titans	21	19	18	22	21	20	19	21	22	22	22		20.636		-1.219
Jets	23	22	23	24	30	23	23	28	23	23	23		24.091		-1.258
Bills	24	25	30	23	27	24	26	27	24	24	24		25.273		-0.940
Vikings	28	23	25	25	22	27	27	24	28	25	28		25.636		2.781
Raiders	25	27	24	26	29	29	25	23	25	28	27		26.182		0.401
Buccaneers	26	26	28	27	24	28	28	25	26	26	25		26.273		-1.023
Browns	27	31	27	28	28	26	24	22	27	27	26		26.636		-1.469
Jaguars	31	30	26	31	25	25	30	31	29	29	30		28.818		1.682
Falcons	29	28	29	29	26	30	31	26	30	30	29		28.818		1.515
Redskins	30	29	31	30	31	31	29	29	31	31	31		30.273		-1.856
Texans	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32		32.000		0.000

Observations:

• I'm sure if Seattle could have moved up even more, they would have. Instead, they'll have to settle for being the unanimous number-1 for another week.
• Beating the Chiefs again was far less impressive for Denver than it was the first time around.
• Another loss, another slip in the rankings for the Chiefs.
• Chargers, Steelers and Jets all fell the same amount this week; neat.
• Bears and Rams fell the same amount as well.

Subjective Standard Deviation

	Subjective
Texans	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32		0.000		0.000
Seahawks	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1		0.000		0.000
Broncos	2	3	3	2	4	4	2	2	2	2	2		0.782		-0.333
Bengals	8	6	7	8	8	6	8	7	8	8	8		0.782		-0.047
Patriots	4	4	2	5	3	3	4	4	4	3	3		0.782		-0.017
Saints	5	5	4	3	6	5	5	6	5	5	4		0.833		0.400
Redskins	30	29	31	30	31	31	29	29	31	31	31		0.862		0.222
49ers	6	7	8	6	5	7	7	5	7	6	6		0.881		0.117
Chiefs	7	8	6	7	9	8	6	9	6	7	7		1.052		0.581
Panthers	3	2	5	4	2	2	3	3	3	4	5		1.052		0.365
Ravens	14	14	14	14	11	14	16	13	14	14	14		1.113		-0.928
Colts	9	11	9	12	12	12	11	11	9	9	11		1.233		0.223
Buccaneers	26	26	28	27	24	28	28	25	26	26	25		1.286		-0.353
Chargers	16	17	15	18	20	16	18	16	17	17	18		1.311		-0.207
Dolphins	17	15	16	16	15	19	14	15	15	15	17		1.336		-1.129
Titans	21	19	18	22	21	20	19	21	22	22	22		1.367		-0.015
Steelers	18	16	21	19	19	21	20	20	19	18	19		1.379		-0.851
Cowboys	11	12	11	10	10	9	12	14	13	12	13		1.437		0.157
Cardinals	13	13	13	13	14	11	9	10	12	13	12		1.443		0.500
Eagles	10	9	10	11	7	10	13	12	10	10	10		1.466		-0.034
Falcons	29	28	29	29	26	30	31	26	30	30	29		1.527		0.903
Lions	12	10	12	9	13	13	10	8	11	11	9		1.601		-0.459
Bears	15	20	17	15	18	18	15	18	16	16	15		1.611		0.059
Rams	20	21	22	20	17	17	22	19	18	19	21		1.720		-0.711
Raiders	25	27	24	26	29	29	25	23	25	28	27		1.898		1.258
Bills	24	25	30	23	27	24	26	27	24	24	24		1.958		1.015
Giants	22	18	20	17	16	22	21	17	20	20	20		1.967		1.474
Vikings	28	23	25	25	22	27	27	24	28	25	28		2.012		1.150
Browns	27	31	27	28	28	26	24	22	27	27	26		2.186		0.235
Jaguars	31	30	26	31	25	25	30	31	29	29	30		2.249		1.603
Jets	23	22	23	24	30	23	23	28	23	23	23		2.391		0.573
Packers	19	24	19	21	23	15	17	30	21	21	16		4.008		1.229

Observations:

• Another week, another consensus at the top and bottom of the lists.
• More than half of the teams saw their Standard Deviation go up this week, so teams are moving and not consistently.
• When it comes to "inconsistency" in the rankings, there's Green Bay, then there's everyone else.
• Chargers actually in the top-half of the league in ranking consistency.

Objective Average

	Objective
Seahawks	1	1	1	1	1	2	1	1	1	1		1.100		0.344
Panthers	3	9	2	3	2	1	2	2	3	2		2.900		1.100
Broncos	2	3	3	2	5	3	3	8	2	3		3.400		-0.067
Saints	4	2	5	5	6	8	5	3	5	5		4.800		-1.467
49ers	6	6	4	4	11	5	4	6	4	4		5.400		0.711
Patriots	5	10	6	8	4	9	7	7	7	6		6.900		-0.678
Bengals	7	4	10	9	3	6	9	5	12	8		7.300		0.478
Chiefs	8	22	15	6	7	7	6	4	6	7		8.800		-0.022
Cardinals	11	8	7	7	10	11	8	13	9	9		9.300		-0.522
Eagles	9	5	8	13	8	10	14	10	11	13		10.100		1.011
Colts	15	18	11	11	9	12	11	14	8	10		11.900		-0.122
Lions	13	7	17	15	17	4	13	9	15	12		12.200		3.467
Cowboys	14	23	9	10	16	18	12	16	10	11		13.900		-2.011
Dolphins	17	12	13	14	14	17	15	17	16	14		14.900		3.544
Rams	12	29	12	12	18	16	10	19	13	15		15.600		-0.378
Bears	10	14	23	20	19	14	19	11	20	17		16.700		-0.589
Titans	22	21	21	18	13	13	17	12	18	19		17.400		0.822
Chargers	18	16	18	16	15	20	16	21	17	18		17.500		-1.389
Ravens	23	25	20	17	22	15	18	15	19	16		19.000		1.778
Packers	21	11	26	23	21	21	20	18	21	20		20.200		-3.644
Steelers	16	17	19	21	26	22	22	20	22	22		20.700		-1.700
Giants	25	15	16	19	20	26	25	28	14	21		20.900		0.100
Buccaneers	19	28	14	22	12	24	21	23	23	24		21.000		0.333
Bills	20	19	28	24	32	19	24	22	29	23		24.000		-1.111
Falcons	24	24	22	25	29	31	23	29	25	25		25.700		0.522
Vikings	26	26	25	27	23	30	28	30	26	26		26.700		1.744
Raiders	31	31	29	26	25	25	26	27	24	28		27.200		0.578
Redskins	28	27	30	29	24	23	30	26	28	30		27.500		-0.278
Browns	29	13	31	30	30	28	29	25	32	29		27.600		-1.489
Texans	30	20	32	28	31	27	27	24	31	31		28.100		1.011
Jets	27	30	27	32	28	29	31	31	30	27		29.200		-3.311
Jaguars	32	32	24	31	27	32	32	32	27	32		30.100		1.233

Observations:

• Again, the Seahawks are firmly planted at the top of rankings.
• Carolina is now the second-best team in the objective lists, passing the Broncos.
• Despite beating the Chiefs, Denver dropped.
• Chargers dropped more than the Bengals climbed.
• Jets in free-fall. At this rate they'll be the worst team in the league by next week.

Objective Standard Deviation

	Objective
Seahawks	1	1	1	1	1	2	1	1	1	1		0.300		-0.656
Saints	4	2	5	5	6	8	5	3	5	5		1.536		0.122
Dolphins	17	12	13	14	14	17	15	17	16	14		1.700		-0.709
Patriots	5	10	6	8	4	9	7	7	7	6		1.700		-0.112
Broncos	2	3	3	2	5	3	3	8	2	3		1.744		0.589
Jets	27	30	27	32	28	29	31	31	30	27		1.778		-2.122
Chargers	18	16	18	16	15	20	16	21	17	18		1.803		-1.444
Cardinals	11	8	7	7	10	11	8	13	9	9		1.847		0.097
Vikings	26	26	25	27	23	30	28	30	26	26		2.052		0.411
49ers	6	6	4	4	11	5	4	6	4	4		2.059		0.689
Panthers	3	9	2	3	2	1	2	2	3	2		2.119		-0.420
Raiders	31	31	29	26	25	25	26	27	24	28		2.358		-0.171
Redskins	28	27	30	29	24	23	30	26	28	30		2.377		0.903
Eagles	9	5	8	13	8	10	14	10	11	13		2.625		-0.410
Bengals	7	4	10	9	3	6	9	5	12	8		2.685		-0.641
Steelers	16	17	19	21	26	22	22	20	22	22		2.722		-0.184
Falcons	24	24	22	25	29	31	23	29	25	25		2.795		0.310
Jaguars	32	32	24	31	27	32	32	32	27	32		2.809		1.245
Colts	15	18	11	11	9	12	11	14	8	10		2.844		-1.419
Ravens	23	25	20	17	22	15	18	15	19	16		3.286		-1.131
Titans	22	21	21	18	13	13	17	12	18	19		3.441		-0.016
Texans	30	20	32	28	31	27	27	24	31	31		3.590		-0.194
Packers	21	11	26	23	21	21	20	18	21	20		3.655		-1.722
Bears	10	14	23	20	19	14	19	11	20	17		4.051		0.180
Lions	13	7	17	15	17	4	13	9	15	12		4.094		1.386
Cowboys	14	23	9	10	16	18	12	16	10	11		4.182		-0.226
Bills	20	19	28	24	32	19	24	22	29	23		4.195		1.469
Buccaneers	19	28	14	22	12	24	21	23	23	24		4.583		0.500
Giants	25	15	16	19	20	26	25	28	14	21		4.700		-0.267
Browns	29	13	31	30	30	28	29	25	32	29		5.181		0.624
Chiefs	8	22	15	6	7	7	6	4	6	7		5.192		0.483
Rams	12	29	12	12	18	16	10	19	13	15		5.238		-0.608

Observations:

• The consistency ranking here is much more linear than the Subjective list was.
• More than half the teams saw their Standard Deviation go down.
• Chargers are once again one of the more consistently-ranked teams.

Overall Average

	Subj vs Obj
Seahawks	1.000	1.100		1.050		0.172
Broncos	2.546	3.400		2.973		0.402
Panthers	3.273	2.900		3.086		0.997
Saints	4.818	4.800		4.809		-2.017
Patriots	3.546	6.900		5.223		-0.029
49ers	6.364	5.400		5.882		0.924
Bengals	7.455	7.300		7.377		0.137
Chiefs	7.273	8.800		8.036		-0.480
Eagles	10.182	10.100		10.141		1.165
Cardinals	12.091	9.300		10.695		-1.639
Colts	10.546	11.900		11.223		0.041
Lions	10.727	12.200		11.464		2.578
Cowboys	11.546	13.900		12.723		-0.862
Dolphins	15.818	14.900		15.359		3.822
Ravens	13.818	19.000		16.409		2.480
Bears	16.636	16.700		16.668		-1.071
Chargers	17.091	17.500		17.295		-1.323
Rams	19.636	15.600		17.618		-0.965
Titans	20.636	17.400		19.018		-0.199
Steelers	19.091	20.700		19.895		-1.478
Giants	19.364	20.900		20.132		1.576
Packers	20.546	20.200		20.373		-3.762
Buccaneers	26.273	21.000		23.636		-0.344
Bills	25.273	24.000		24.636		-1.025
Vikings	25.636	26.700		26.168		2.263
Jets	24.091	29.200		26.645		-2.284
Raiders	26.182	27.200		26.691		0.490
Browns	26.636	27.600		27.118		-1.479
Falcons	28.818	25.700		27.259		1.019
Redskins	30.273	27.500		28.886		-1.067
Jaguars	28.818	30.100		29.459		1.458
Texans	32.000	28.100		30.050		0.506

Observations:

• The Broncos are nearly two full spots behind the Seahawks.
• Jacksonville is finally out of the cellar!
• Despite being the unanimous 32nd choice in the Subjective list, the Texans saw their overall ranking climb.
• Vikings and Jets just passed each other, going opposite directions.
• Giants quietly climbing back up the board.

Overall Standard Deviation

	Subj vs Obj
Seahawks	1.000	1.100		0.213		-0.450
Saints	4.818	4.800		1.220		0.101
Broncos	2.546	3.400		1.397		0.264
Chargers	17.091	17.500		1.578		-0.842
Dolphins	15.818	14.900		1.588		-0.960
49ers	6.364	5.400		1.630		0.361
Panthers	3.273	2.900		1.659		-0.084
Bengals	7.455	7.300		1.939		-0.342
Eagles	10.182	10.100		2.100		-0.196
Vikings	25.636	26.700		2.100		0.844
Patriots	3.546	6.900		2.122		0.446
Cardinals	12.091	9.300		2.158		0.781
Raiders	26.182	27.200		2.189		0.366
Redskins	30.273	27.500		2.236		1.005
Colts	10.546	11.900		2.260		-0.678
Steelers	19.091	20.700		2.274		-0.333
Jaguars	28.818	30.100		2.611		1.404
Falcons	28.818	25.700		2.714		0.067
Bears	16.636	16.700		3.029		0.190
Titans	20.636	17.400		3.038		0.476
Lions	10.727	12.200		3.141		0.285
Texans	32.000	28.100		3.152		0.292
Bills	25.273	24.000		3.285		1.235
Cowboys	11.546	13.900		3.285		0.241
Jets	24.091	29.200		3.318		0.048
Ravens	13.818	19.000		3.534		-0.239
Giants	19.364	20.900		3.624		0.277
Chiefs	7.273	8.800		3.742		0.411
Packers	20.546	20.200		3.848		-0.252
Browns	26.636	27.600		3.939		0.579
Buccaneers	26.273	21.000		4.219		0.693
Rams	19.636	15.600		4.322		-0.153

Observations:

• Not really much more to add here ...

Difference in Averages

	Subj vs Obj
Ravens	13.818	19.000		5.182		1.404
Jets	24.091	29.200		5.109		2.053
Patriots	3.546	6.900		3.355		1.299
Cowboys	11.546	13.900		2.355		2.299
Steelers	19.091	20.700		1.609		0.442
Giants	19.364	20.900		1.536		2.953
Chiefs	7.273	8.800		1.527		-0.918
Lions	10.727	12.200		1.473		-1.777
Colts	10.546	11.900		1.355		0.327
Jaguars	28.818	30.100		1.282		0.449
Vikings	25.636	26.700		1.064		1.036
Raiders	26.182	27.200		1.018		-0.177
Browns	26.636	27.600		0.964		0.020
Broncos	2.546	3.400		0.855		0.938
Chargers	17.091	17.500		0.409		0.131
Seahawks	1.000	1.100		0.100		-0.344
Bears	16.636	16.700		0.064		-0.964
Saints	4.818	4.800		-0.018		-1.101
Eagles	10.182	10.100		-0.082		0.307
Bengals	7.455	7.300		-0.155		-0.683
Packers	20.546	20.200		-0.346		-0.235
Panthers	3.273	2.900		-0.373		-0.206
Dolphins	15.818	14.900		-0.918		0.554
49ers	6.364	5.400		-0.964		0.425
Bills	25.273	24.000		-1.273		0.171
Redskins	30.273	27.500		-2.773		-1.578
Cardinals	12.091	9.300		-2.791		-2.235
Falcons	28.818	25.700		-3.118		0.993
Titans	20.636	17.400		-3.236		-2.041
Texans	32.000	28.100		-3.900		-1.011
Rams	19.636	15.600		-4.036		-1.175
Buccaneers	26.273	21.000		-5.273		-1.356

Observations:

• Oh, Baltimore. We so desperately want you to be good!
• A team from New York is overrated? Say it ain't so!
• 12 teams have their rankings within 1 spot of each other. That's pretty good (Chargers are in that group).
• Chicago gets the crown this week of "Closest to the Pin"
• 11 of 16 AFC teams are some varying degree of "over-ranked".
• Tampa Bay continues to be the favorite whipping boy of the NFL.

Sources

• ESPN
• Fox
• CBS
• USA Today
• Sports Illustrated
• ProFootballTalk
• NFL.com
• SB Nation
• Reddit
• Associated Press
• ProFootballFocus
• Football Outsiders
• Team Efficiency
• Team Rankings
• Sagarin
• BeatGraphs
• Aikman Efficiency
• Pro Football Reference
• Cold Hard Football Facts
• Massey
• ARGH

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