2013 NFL Power Rankings Consensus, Week 15

Despite a blowout win against a top-10 defense, many pundits were unimpressed with San Diego's performance against the New York Giants.

I'm going to spoil things a little right off the bat. The Chargers effectively didn't move at all this week in the Subjective rankings. They moved up 2.500 spots in the Objective rankings. Why the disparity? Frankly, who cares about the Chargers this year?

As soon as pundits feel they have San Diego "figured out," they go and lose to an opponent they were supposed to beat, or beat an opponent they had no chance in beating. We've covered before that this perception of the Chargers being "inconsistent" is a fallacy. But I think the pundits have been burned enough times this season that they aren't willing to give the Chargers the benefit of the doubt.

Notable Quotes

Ryan Mathews quietly is having perhaps his best season: 885 yards on 207 carries (4.3 average).

The AFC West's 'third' team has stayed in the hunt and gets one last shot at each division mate to end the year, starting with Denver on Thursday Night in Week 15. One game out of the wild card, the Chargers will need to show well to press for the final playoff spot.

If the Chargers played against the rest of the league like they played against the Giants, the playoff picture would be a lot different. Fan involvement, a good showing by the defense, and a fantastic offensive performance shows a lot of promise for the future of this team. If the Chargers manage to sneak into the playoffs, the only hope of the Charger faithful is that the team that played this week shows up.

Division Averages

Stock Rising

Stock Falling

Subjective Average

	Subjective
Seahawks	1	1	3	2	1	1	1	2	2	1	1		1.455		-0.455
Broncos	2	2	1	1	2	2	2	1	1	2	2		1.636		0.910
Saints	3	3	4	3	4	4	3	3	3	3	3		3.273		1.545
Patriots	4	4	2	5	5	3	4	5	4	4	4		4.000		-0.454
49ers	5	6	6	4	3	7	7	4	6	5	5		5.273		1.091
Panthers	6	5	8	7	6	6	6	6	5	6	6		6.091		-2.818
Chiefs	7	8	7	6	9	8	5	8	7	7	7		7.182		0.091
Bengals	8	7	5	8	8	5	8	7	8	8	8		7.273		0.182
Eagles	9	9	9	9	7	9	9	11	9	9	9		9.000		1.182
Cardinals	10	10	10	10	14	10	10	9	10	11	10		10.364		1.727
Colts	11	13	11	12	12	14	12	12	11	10	14		12.000		-1.454
Lions	12	11	12	11	16	18	13	10	12	14	12		12.818		-2.091
Bears	13	14	14	15	11	12	14	15	13	12	11		13.091		3.545
Ravens	14	12	13	13	13	11	15	14	14	13	13		13.182		0.636
Dolphins	16	15	16	14	10	16	11	13	15	15	15		14.182		1.636
Cowboys	15	16	17	16	17	13	16	17	17	16	16		16.000		-4.454
Chargers	17	17	15	17	15	17	18	16	16	18	17		16.636		0.455
Packers	18	18	19	18	18	15	17	23	18	17	18		18.091		2.455
Steelers	19	19	22	20	22	23	21	18	19	20	19		20.182		-1.091
Jets	21	21	20	22	19	19	19	25	22	19	24		21.000		3.091
Rams	20	23	23	19	27	20	23	20	20	21	21		21.546		-1.910
Titans	22	20	18	21	28	22	20	21	23	22	22		21.727		-1.091
Giants	23	22	21	24	25	24	22	19	21	23	20		22.182		-2.818
Buccaneers	24	26	24	23	21	25	24	24	24	24	23		23.818		2.455
Browns	25	28	27	26	23	27	26	22	25	26	25		25.455		1.181
Jaguars	29	25	25	28	20	21	25	29	26	25	27		25.455		3.363
Vikings	27	24	26	30	24	28	29	26	29	27	28		27.091		-1.455
Bills	26	27	30	25	30	26	28	30	28	28	26		27.636		-2.363
Raiders	28	30	28	27	29	29	27	27	27	29	29		28.182		-2.000
Falcons	30	29	29	29	26	30	30	28	30	30	30		29.182		-0.364
Redskins	31	31	31	31	32	31	31	31	31	31	31		31.091		-0.818
Texans	32	32	32	32	31	32	32	32	32	32	32		31.909		0.091

Observations:

• Sports Illustrated making the case for the Redskins to be the worst team in the league. With RGIII being shut down for the season, are they wrong?
• Chargers stayed put in most lists, and actually were dropped by ESPN.
• Conversely, the Giants were dropped by nearly 3 spots. So, San Diego didn't win so much as the Giants gave up.
• Seattle no longer the unanimous top team. How can a team be atop the rankings if they lost. The top spot is only for winners, Seattle. (Author's note: I think Seattle should still be at the top of the rankings despite the loss.)

Subjective Standard Deviation

	Subjective
Texans	32	32	32	32	31	32	32	32	32	32	32		0.288		0.288
Redskins	31	31	31	31	32	31	31	31	31	31	31		0.288		-0.574
Saints	3	3	4	3	4	4	3	3	3	3	3		0.445		-0.388
Broncos	2	2	1	1	2	2	2	1	1	2	2		0.481		-0.301
Seahawks	1	1	3	2	1	1	1	2	2	1	1		0.656		0.656
Panthers	6	5	8	7	6	6	6	6	5	6	6		0.793		-0.259
Patriots	4	4	2	5	5	3	4	5	4	4	4		0.853		0.071
Eagles	9	9	9	9	7	9	9	11	9	9	9		0.853		-0.613
Chargers	17	17	15	17	15	17	18	16	16	18	17		0.979		-0.332
Raiders	28	30	28	27	29	29	27	27	27	29	29		1.029		-0.869
Ravens	14	12	13	13	13	11	15	14	14	13	13		1.029		-0.084
Chiefs	7	8	7	6	9	8	5	8	7	7	7		1.029		-0.023
Cowboys	15	16	17	16	17	13	16	17	17	16	16		1.128		-0.309
Bengals	8	7	5	8	8	5	8	7	8	8	8		1.136		0.354
Buccaneers	24	26	24	23	21	25	24	24	24	24	23		1.192		-0.094
Falcons	30	29	29	29	26	30	30	28	30	30	30		1.192		-0.335
Colts	11	13	11	12	12	14	12	12	11	10	14		1.206		-0.027
49ers	5	6	6	4	3	7	7	4	6	5	5		1.213		0.332
Cardinals	10	10	10	10	14	10	10	9	10	11	10		1.226		-0.217
Bears	13	14	14	15	11	12	14	15	13	12	11		1.379		-0.232
Steelers	19	19	22	20	22	23	21	18	19	20	19		1.527		0.148
Browns	25	28	27	26	23	27	26	22	25	26	25		1.671		-0.515
Bills	26	27	30	25	30	26	28	30	28	28	26		1.720		-0.238
Giants	23	22	21	24	25	24	22	19	21	23	20		1.749		-0.218
Packers	18	18	19	18	18	15	17	23	18	17	18		1.832		-2.176
Vikings	27	24	26	30	24	28	29	26	29	27	28		1.881		-0.131
Dolphins	16	15	16	14	10	16	11	13	15	15	15		1.946		0.610
Jets	21	21	20	22	19	19	19	25	22	19	24		2.000		-0.391
Rams	20	23	23	19	27	20	23	20	20	21	21		2.189		0.469
Lions	12	11	12	11	16	18	13	10	12	14	12		2.249		0.648
Titans	22	20	18	21	28	22	20	21	23	22	22		2.378		1.011
Jaguars	29	25	25	28	20	21	25	29	26	25	27		2.775		0.526

Observations:

• Redskins and Texans near unanimous picks for 31 and 32, respectively. And the only non-unanimous pick has them swapped in position.
• Pretty good consensus about the top 5 teams.
• Wow, Chargers pretty consistent in their ranking; even if that ranking is wrong.
• Packers actually would be pretty consistent in their ranking had SBNation not messed everything up
• Jacksonville continues to climb the rankings, just not at a constant pace

Objective Average

	Objective
Seahawks	1	1	1	1	3	1	1	1	1		1.222		-0.122
Broncos	2	3	3	2	4	3	2	6	2		3.000		0.400
Saints	4	2	4	4	5	6	5	4	5		4.333		0.467
Panthers	3	11	2	3	9	2	3	2	4		4.333		-1.433
49ers	8	6	5	5	12	4	4	7	3		6.000		-0.600
Bengals	7	4	8	9	1	5	8	5	9		6.222		1.078
Patriots	6	9	7	8	2	10	9	9	7		7.444		-0.544
Chiefs	5	19	11	6	6	7	6	3	6		7.667		1.133
Cardinals	10	7	6	7	8	11	7	11	8		8.333		0.967
Eagles	11	5	9	11	7	8	14	8	11		9.333		0.767
Colts	17	18	12	10	11	16	10	13	10		13.000		-1.100
Dolphins	19	16	10	12	10	14	12	14	13		13.333		1.567
Lions	12	8	18	15	15	9	16	12	16		13.444		-1.244
Bears	9	12	19	16	16	12	18	10	17		14.333		2.367
Chargers	14	17	16	14	17	13	13	17	14		15.000		2.500
Cowboys	15	24	15	13	18	18	15	18	12		16.444		-2.544
Rams	18	30	14	17	25	17	11	22	15		18.778		-3.178
Buccaneers	13	28	13	20	13	21	19	21	22		18.889		2.111
Titans	23	21	23	19	14	19	17	16	20		19.111		-1.711
Ravens	21	26	17	18	22	15	20	15	18		19.111		-0.111
Packers	20	10	25	21	21	20	21	19	21		19.778		0.422
Steelers	16	15	22	23	19	23	23	20	23		20.444		0.256
Giants	27	14	20	22	20	27	25	30	19		22.667		-1.767
Bills	22	20	28	27	31	22	24	24	29		25.222		-1.222
Falcons	24	23	24	25	24	31	22	29	26		25.333		0.367
Browns	28	13	29	30	30	26	26	23	30		26.111		1.489
Jets	26	27	26	24	23	28	30	31	25		26.667		2.533
Vikings	25	25	27	26	26	30	27	27	27		26.667		0.033
Raiders	31	31	30	29	28	25	29	26	28		28.556		-1.356
Texans	29	22	32	32	32	29	28	25	32		29.000		-0.900
Jaguars	32	32	21	28	29	32	32	32	24		29.111		0.989
Redskins	30	29	31	31	27	24	31	28	31		29.111		-1.611

Observations:

• By nature of the models, Seattle lost so they'll be dropped a little in BeatGraphs' rankings. Aside from that, they're still 1st in all the other lists.
• Clear deliniation of the top 10 teams from everyone else.
• Chargers currently #7 in the AFC.
• 9 of the bottom 14 teams are AFC teams. Just goes to show how bad the conference is overall when the AFC outnumbers the NFC in the bottom 14 by a near 2-to-1 margin.
• Team Efficiency has the Browns at 13th, Giants at 14th and the Chargers at 17th. Which team do you think is better?

Objective Standard Deviation

	Objective
Seahawks	1	1	1	1	3	1	1	1	1		0.629		0.329
Saints	4	2	4	4	5	6	5	4	5		1.054		-0.482
Broncos	2	3	3	2	4	3	2	6	2		1.247		-0.497
Vikings	25	25	27	26	26	30	27	27	27		1.414		-0.638
Chargers	14	17	16	14	17	13	13	17	14		1.633		-0.170
Cardinals	10	7	6	7	8	11	7	11	8		1.764		-0.083
Raiders	31	31	30	29	28	25	29	26	28		1.950		-0.408
Patriots	6	9	7	8	2	10	9	9	7		2.266		0.566
Redskins	30	29	31	31	27	24	31	28	31		2.283		-0.094
Jets	26	27	26	24	23	28	30	31	25		2.494		0.716
Bengals	7	4	8	9	1	5	8	5	9		2.529		-0.156
Eagles	11	5	9	11	7	8	14	8	11		2.539		-0.086
49ers	8	6	5	5	12	4	4	7	3		2.582		0.523
Dolphins	19	16	10	12	10	14	12	14	13		2.708		1.008
Falcons	24	23	24	25	24	31	22	29	26		2.749		-0.046
Titans	23	21	23	19	14	19	17	16	20		2.885		-0.556
Steelers	16	15	22	23	19	23	23	20	23		2.986		0.264
Colts	17	18	12	10	11	16	10	13	10		3.019		0.175
Panthers	3	11	2	3	9	2	3	2	4		3.127		1.008
Lions	12	8	18	15	15	9	16	12	16		3.201		-0.893
Ravens	21	26	17	18	22	15	20	15	18		3.348		0.062
Texans	29	22	32	32	32	29	28	25	32		3.367		-0.223
Cowboys	15	24	15	13	18	18	15	18	12		3.370		-0.812
Bears	9	12	19	16	16	12	18	10	17		3.432		-0.619
Bills	22	20	28	27	31	22	24	24	29		3.489		-0.706
Packers	20	10	25	21	21	20	21	19	21		3.794		0.139
Jaguars	32	32	21	28	29	32	32	32	24		3.871		1.062
Chiefs	5	19	11	6	6	7	6	3	6		4.472		-0.720
Giants	27	14	20	22	20	27	25	30	19		4.714		0.014
Buccaneers	13	28	13	20	13	21	19	21	22		4.795		0.212
Browns	28	13	29	30	30	26	26	23	30		5.152		-0.029
Rams	18	30	14	17	25	17	11	22	15		5.573		0.335

Observations:

• If a team were "inconsistent" like the Chargers are purported to be, would they have one of the most-consistent Objective rankings?
• Seahawks still most consistently-ranked team.
• For as much ire as BeatGraphs gets each week, Team Efficiency is actually the list mucking things up the most.

Overall Average

	Subj vs Obj
Seahawks	1.455	1.222		1.338		-0.288
Broncos	1.636	3.000		2.318		0.655
Saints	3.273	4.333		3.803		1.006
Panthers	6.091	4.333		5.212		-2.126
49ers	5.273	6.000		5.636		0.246
Patriots	4.000	7.444		5.722		-0.499
Bengals	7.273	6.222		6.747		0.630
Chiefs	7.182	7.667		7.424		0.612
Eagles	9.000	9.333		9.167		0.974
Cardinals	10.364	8.333		9.348		1.347
Colts	12.000	13.000		12.500		-1.277
Lions	12.818	13.444		13.131		-1.667
Bears	13.091	14.333		13.712		2.956
Dolphins	14.182	13.333		13.758		1.601
Chargers	16.636	15.000		15.818		1.477
Ravens	13.182	19.111		16.146		0.263
Cowboys	16.000	16.444		16.222		-3.499
Packers	18.091	19.778		18.934		1.439
Rams	21.546	18.778		20.162		-2.544
Steelers	20.182	20.444		20.313		-0.418
Titans	21.727	19.111		20.419		-1.401
Buccaneers	23.818	18.889		21.354		2.282
Giants	22.182	22.667		22.424		-2.292
Jets	21.000	26.667		23.833		2.812
Browns	25.455	26.111		25.783		1.335
Bills	27.636	25.222		26.429		-1.793
Vikings	27.091	26.667		26.879		-0.711
Falcons	29.182	25.333		27.258		0.001
Jaguars	25.455	29.111		27.283		2.176
Raiders	28.182	28.556		28.369		-1.678
Redskins	31.091	29.111		30.101		-1.215
Texans	31.909	29.000		30.455		-0.405

Observations:

• Again, the top 10 teams seem to be separated from the rest.
• Chargers are slightly above average now.
• Atlanta moved ever so slightly, by 0.001 spots compared to last week.

Overall Standard Deviation

	Subj vs Obj
Seahawks	1.455	1.222		0.654		0.441
Saints	3.273	4.333		0.942		-0.278
Broncos	1.636	3.000		1.135		-0.262
Raiders	28.182	28.556		1.526		-0.663
Chargers	16.636	15.000		1.546		-0.032
Vikings	27.091	26.667		1.700		-0.400
Cardinals	10.364	8.333		1.802		-0.356
Eagles	9.000	9.333		1.824		-0.276
Redskins	31.091	29.111		1.833		-0.403
Bengals	7.273	6.222		1.965		0.026
49ers	5.273	6.000		1.985		0.355
Colts	12.000	13.000		2.269		0.009
Steelers	20.182	20.444		2.304		0.030
Panthers	6.091	4.333		2.347		0.688
Dolphins	14.182	13.333		2.358		0.770
Patriots	4.000	7.444		2.376		0.254
Cowboys	16.000	16.444		2.421		-0.864
Bears	13.091	14.333		2.594		-0.435
Texans	31.909	29.000		2.691		-0.461
Lions	12.818	13.444		2.737		-0.404
Falcons	29.182	25.333		2.801		0.087
Bills	27.636	25.222		2.924		-0.361
Titans	21.727	19.111		2.924		-0.114
Packers	18.091	19.778		3.005		-0.843
Chiefs	7.182	7.667		3.105		-0.637
Giants	22.182	22.667		3.426		-0.198
Jets	21.000	26.667		3.598		0.280
Browns	25.455	26.111		3.686		-0.253
Jaguars	25.455	29.111		3.780		1.169
Ravens	13.182	19.111		3.785		0.251
Buccaneers	23.818	18.889		4.140		-0.079
Rams	21.546	18.778		4.302		-0.020

Difference in Averages

	Subj vs Obj
Ravens	13.182	19.111		5.929		0.747
Jets	21.000	26.667		5.667		0.558
Jaguars	25.455	29.111		3.657		2.375
Patriots	4.000	7.444		3.444		0.089
Packers	18.091	19.778		1.687		2.033
Broncos	1.636	3.000		1.364		0.509
Bears	13.091	14.333		1.242		1.178
Saints	3.273	4.333		1.061		1.079
Colts	12.000	13.000		1.000		-0.355
49ers	5.273	6.000		0.727		1.691
Browns	25.455	26.111		0.657		-0.307
Lions	12.818	13.444		0.626		-0.847
Giants	22.182	22.667		0.485		-1.051
Chiefs	7.182	7.667		0.485		-1.042
Cowboys	16.000	16.444		0.444		-1.911
Raiders	28.182	28.556		0.374		-0.644
Eagles	9.000	9.333		0.333		0.415
Steelers	20.182	20.444		0.263		-1.346
Seahawks	1.455	1.222		-0.232		-0.332
Vikings	27.091	26.667		-0.424		-1.488
Dolphins	14.182	13.333		-0.849		0.069
Bengals	7.273	6.222		-1.051		-0.896
Chargers	16.636	15.000		-1.636		-2.045
Panthers	6.091	4.333		-1.758		-1.385
Redskins	31.091	29.111		-1.980		0.793
Cardinals	10.364	8.333		-2.030		0.761
Bills	27.636	25.222		-2.414		-1.141
Titans	21.727	19.111		-2.616		0.620
Rams	21.546	18.778		-2.768		1.268
Texans	31.909	29.000		-2.909		0.991
Falcons	29.182	25.333		-3.849		-0.731
Buccaneers	23.818	18.889		-4.929		0.344

Observations:

• Chargers now one of the "under-ranked" teams, though not egregiously.
• It's no surprise to me that the 4 most "over-ranked" teams are in the AFC. It does surprise me that all of a sudden, Jacksonville is an "over-ranked" team. I wonder if the hype and hope is getting the best of the pundits
• Broncos slightly over-ranked.
• Tampa Bay can't buy any respect. Do they deserve it though considering all the drama?

Sources

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