Bolts From The Blue, a Los Angeles Chargers community

John Crean | November 7, 2013

2013 NFL Power Rankings Consensus, Week 10

Battle out West

The AFC West's dominance over the rest of the league is softening. With the Raiders and Chargers both losing this week, they've fallen in the rankings, bringing the rest of the division down with them. Divisional supremacy is up for grabs again, and the NFC West is making a strong case for them to take over.

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Sorry this is a day late. Four of my sources didn't publish rankings in time, and I made the decision to wait for them to catch up because I generally don't like when nearly 20% of my data is missing. Waiting paid off a little: 2 of the sources published their rankings. So we'll go this week without 2 of my normal sources, but that's okay I'm missing one subjective and one objective ranking; it all evens out the, right?

Last week, the AFC West had a comfortable lead over the NFC West. This week, that lead has narrowed considerably. You can thank the Chargers and Raiders, who both fell to NFC East teams, for bringing the Division back down. Speaking of the Chargers, they lost in a frustrating display of poor decisions overall. How has that affected their rankings? Read on to find out.

Notable Quotes

It's doubtful referee Jerome Boger gets holiday card after horrid personal-foul call in OT.

- USA Today

Boy, everything came down to that Danny Woodhead play in Washington. Philip Rivers probably had his worst day of the season against the Redskins. Still, it would have helped if offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt had mixed a few more runs in there. Calling 47 pass plays versus 16 running plays? Come on. It's not like the Bolts were down by three touchdowns in the fourth quarter.

- NFL.com

Philip Rivers keeps churning out the passing yards, and he keeps needing every one of them thanks to the Bolts' shockingly poor secondary. He came up literally one yard short on his swing pass to Danny Woodhead, and settling for a field goal doomed the Chargers to an overtime where they never saw the ball. Keenan Allen is tearing up secondaries and battling Eddie Lacy for Rookie of the Year honors, but San Diego has to get stops to have a shot at a Wild Card.

- SB Nation

Division Averages

Division	Week 10 Average	Week 9 Average	Difference
AFC West	12.1125	10.2614	-1.8511
NFC West	12.4625	11.8864	-0.5761
NFC North	15.3375	15.3977	0.0602
AFC East	16.2000	17.9886	1.7886
NFC South	17.7250	17.8636	0.1386
AFC North	18.9750	17.6818	-1.2932
AFC South	19.5125	19.5682	0.0557
NFC East	19.6750	21.3523	1.6773

Had the NFC West not fallen a little this week, they would have overtaken the AFC West.

Stock Rising

Team	Week 9 Average	Week 10 Average	Difference
PHI	23.383	18.869	4.514
NYJ	22.075	18.636	3.439
NE	10.250	6.889	3.361
CHI	14.792	12.086	2.706
MIA	19.342	16.667	2.675

Stock Falling

Team	Week 9 Average	Week 10 Average	Difference
OAK	21.817	26.758	-4.941
BAL	15.917	19.586	-3.669
SDG	12.750	16.237	-3.487
GB	7.050	9.551	-2.501
BUF	20.750	22.889	-2.139

Subjective Average

	Subjective

Broncos	3	1	3	1	4	1	3	1	1	3	1	2.000	0.417
Chiefs	1	3	1	4	1	2	2	4	2	1	3	2.182	-0.099
Seahawks	4	4	2	2	2	5	1	2	3	2	2	2.636	-0.303
Colts	2	8	6	5	3	3	4	3	4	5	4	4.273	0.644
49ers	5	2	4	3	5	6	5	5	5	4	6	4.546	1.204
Patriots	7	5	5	6	6	4	6	7	7	6	7	6.000	3.000
Saints	6	9	7	7	7	7	7	8	6	7	5	6.909	-3.076
Bengals	8	11	8	10	8	8	9	10	8	8	8	8.727	-1.394
Lions	10	10	9	8	10	10	11	9	9	9	9	9.455	0.545
Panthers	12	7	11	11	11	9	10	6	11	10	11	9.909	2.591
Packers	11	6	13	9	9	12	13	12	10	11	10	10.546	-3.046
Bears	9	12	12	12	13	11	8	15	12	12	13	11.727	2.356
Cowboys	13	13	10	13	12	14	12	16	13	13	12	12.818	-0.651
Jets	14	14	14	15	14	17	14	20	15	14	17	15.273	2.977
Chargers	15	15	17	19	16	13	16	14	14	15	15	15.364	-3.364
Titans	16	16	16	14	18	15	15	18	17	17	16	16.182	1.735
Dolphins	19	18	23	17	15	19	17	11	16	18	14	17.000	1.583
Cardinals	17	22	15	18	17	16	18	19	18	16	20	17.818	-0.568
Browns	18	21	18	21	20	20	20	13	20	20	19	19.091	4.326
Ravens	21	25	19	16	21	18	21	17	19	22	18	19.727	-4.894
Eagles	20	19	21	20	19	21	19	21	21	19	22	20.182	4.485
Redskins	22	17	22	22	22	24	22	22	23	21	25	22.000	2.500
Bills	23	23	25	23	25	22	25	26	22	24	26	24.000	-2.500
Texans	28	24	20	26	29	26	27	23	24	27	21	25.000	-0.167
Raiders	24	27	27	24	23	25	23	25	26	25	28	25.182	-4.349
Giants	29	20	26	27	24	27	24	24	28	23	27	25.364	0.386
Rams	25	28	24	28	26	23	26	27	25	26	29	26.091	-1.258
Falcons	26	26	28	25	27	28	29	29	27	29	24	27.091	-2.091
Steelers	27	30	29	29	28	29	28	28	29	28	23	28.000	-1.083
Vikings	30	29	30	30	31	30	30	31	30	30	30	30.091	-0.091
Buccaneers	31	31	31	31	30	31	31	30	31	31	31	30.818	0.265
Jaguars	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32.000	-0.083

Observations:

Even during their bye, the Broncos rose half a spot to knock the Chiefs off. Are rankers raising the Broncos in honor of John Fox? Are rankers skeptical of the Chiefs? Probably a little of both.
Though the Broncos are the top team, their average is a solid 2.000. So there is no clear top team at the moment. A lot of questions will be answered next Sunday night.
The NFC is starting to assert their seeming dominance again as 8 of the top 13 teams are NFC teams. There's a sharp delineation from the Cowboys to the Jets, so it's safe to consider those the top 13 teams.
Chargers are hanging on in the middle there.
Vikings fans, good news: you're no longer a unanimous pick at 30th. Bad news: you've dropped a little.

Subjective Standard Deviation

	Subjective

Jaguars	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	0.000	-0.276
Buccaneers	31	31	31	31	30	31	31	30	31	31	31	0.386	0.110
Vikings	30	29	30	30	31	30	30	31	30	30	30	0.514	0.514
Lions	10	10	9	8	10	10	11	9	9	9	9	0.782	0.374
Patriots	7	5	5	6	6	4	6	7	7	6	7	0.954	0.377
Saints	6	9	7	7	7	7	7	8	6	7	5	0.996	0.010
Eagles	20	19	21	20	19	21	19	21	21	19	22	1.029	-1.689
Bengals	8	11	8	10	8	8	9	10	8	8	8	1.052	0.428
Chiefs	1	3	1	4	1	2	2	4	2	1	3	1.113	-0.269
Broncos	3	1	3	1	4	1	3	1	1	3	1	1.128	-0.059
Seahawks	4	4	2	2	2	5	1	2	3	2	2	1.150	0.207
49ers	5	2	4	3	5	6	5	5	5	4	6	1.157	0.724
Titans	16	16	16	14	18	15	15	18	17	17	16	1.192	-0.306
Cowboys	13	13	10	13	12	14	12	16	13	13	12	1.403	0.417
Bills	23	23	25	23	25	22	25	26	22	24	26	1.414	-0.479
Chargers	15	15	17	19	16	13	16	14	14	15	15	1.554	0.329
Raiders	24	27	27	24	23	25	23	25	26	25	28	1.585	-0.926
Colts	2	8	6	5	3	3	4	3	4	5	4	1.601	0.219
Falcons	26	26	28	25	27	28	29	29	27	29	24	1.621	-0.862
Rams	25	28	24	28	26	23	26	27	25	26	29	1.730	-0.573
Steelers	27	30	29	29	28	29	28	28	29	28	23	1.758	-0.639
Panthers	12	7	11	11	11	9	10	6	11	10	11	1.781	0.397
Bears	9	12	12	12	13	11	8	15	12	12	13	1.814	0.316
Jets	14	14	14	15	14	17	14	20	15	14	17	1.863	-1.482
Cardinals	17	22	15	18	17	16	18	19	18	16	20	1.898	0.364
Redskins	22	17	22	22	22	24	22	22	23	21	25	1.907	-0.816
Packers	11	6	13	9	9	12	13	12	10	11	10	1.971	0.713
Browns	18	21	18	21	20	20	20	13	20	20	19	2.151	-1.050
Ravens	21	25	19	16	21	18	21	17	19	22	18	2.453	0.828
Giants	29	20	26	27	24	27	24	24	28	23	27	2.496	0.255
Texans	28	24	20	26	29	26	27	23	24	27	21	2.730	-0.375
Dolphins	19	18	23	17	15	19	17	11	16	18	14	2.954	-0.497

Observations:

Nice to see everyone wised up and put the Jaguars unanimously at the bottom again.
An almost even split of teams that became more or less consistent (15 more consistent, 17 less).
Without USA Today, the Chargers are rather consistent in their rankings at about 15th. Better than I expected of them this year. The rest of the season will be tough though.
Wow, the Dolphins are a mess in the media, and a mess in the rankings: 11th-23rd and everywhere in between.

Objective Average

	Objective

Seahawks	2	3	2	6	4	3	2	3	1	2.889	-1.089
Broncos	1	2	1	9	2	1	6	1	4	3.000	0.300
Chiefs	9	1	7	8	3	6	3	2	2	4.556	1.344
49ers	6	4	5	7	5	4	5	4	3	4.778	-0.078
Colts	5	5	9	5	6	5	8	5	5	5.889	-0.889
Saints	7	8	3	3	9	7	4	7	6	6.000	0.000
Panthers	3	13	11	19	1	2	1	8	10	7.556	1.144
Patriots	11	7	6	2	7	11	9	10	7	7.778	3.722
Bengals	8	6	10	1	10	9	10	9	8	7.889	-1.189
Packers	10	11	4	10	12	8	7	6	9	8.556	-1.956
Lions	13	9	13	12	8	12	11	12	11	11.222	-1.122
Cowboys	12	12	8	15	13	10	13	11	13	11.889	-0.989
Bears	4	10	12	23	11	13	14	13	12	12.444	3.056
Cardinals	14	15	18	11	16	14	18	14	16	15.111	-0.711
Titans	27	14	17	13	17	15	12	15	14	16.000	0.900
Dolphins	17	19	16	4	21	17	21	17	15	16.333	3.767
Chargers	15	18	15	17	19	18	17	18	17	17.111	-3.611
Eagles	16	21	19	18	14	19	15	16	20	17.556	4.544
Ravens	21	24	14	31	15	16	16	20	18	19.444	-2.444
Browns	22	20	21	20	26	20	20	21	19	21.000	-1.000
Redskins	28	16	22	22	18	22	22	19	21	21.111	2.689
Bills	20	22	26	16	20	21	24	24	23	21.778	-1.778
Jets	19	17	27	14	23	30	23	23	22	22.000	3.900
Falcons	18	29	24	21	31	24	25	29	26	25.222	0.378
Texans	29	26	23	32	25	25	19	25	24	25.333	-2.233
Rams	26	25	29	25	24	23	27	26	25	25.556	-2.056
Giants	30	23	20	26	29	27	31	22	27	26.111	0.489
Buccaneers	23	31	30	27	22	26	26	31	31	27.444	2.556
Steelers	24	27	25	30	30	29	30	28	29	28.000	-3.100
Raiders	31	28	31	24	27	31	28	27	28	28.333	-5.533
Vikings	25	30	28	29	28	28	29	30	30	28.556	0.844
Jaguars	32	32	32	28	32	32	32	32	32	31.556	0.144

Observations:

Seahawks dropped quite a bit objectively this week, but ever so slightly still in first.
Interesting that even though the Seahawks are only ranked 1st in one list, they still have the top spot. Broncos on the other hand have 4 first-place votes.
Chiefs dropped in the Subjective rankings list, but rose in the Objective rankings list. Huh.
Chargers dropped by almost the same amount in both lists.
New Orleans, despite losing to the Jets, didn't move at all on average in the objective list. Jets on the other hand, rose almost 4 spots.
That loss to the Eagles really did a number on the Raiders.

Objective Standard Deviation

	Objective

49ers	6	4	5	7	5	4	5	4	3	1.133	-0.483
Jaguars	32	32	32	28	32	32	32	32	32	1.257	0.799
Chargers	15	18	15	17	19	18	17	18	17	1.286	0.082
Seahawks	2	3	2	6	4	3	2	3	1	1.370	0.390
Colts	5	5	9	5	6	5	8	5	5	1.449	-0.742
Vikings	25	30	28	29	28	28	29	30	30	1.499	-0.063
Lions	13	9	13	12	8	12	11	12	11	1.618	0.105
Rams	26	25	29	25	24	23	27	26	25	1.641	-1.859
Cowboys	12	12	8	15	13	10	13	11	13	1.912	0.098
Browns	22	20	21	20	26	20	20	21	19	1.944	-0.776
Saints	7	8	3	3	9	7	4	7	6	2.055	0.382
Cardinals	14	15	18	11	16	14	18	14	16	2.079	0.335
Steelers	24	27	25	30	30	29	30	28	29	2.108	-2.026
Raiders	31	28	31	24	27	31	28	27	28	2.211	-0.913
Eagles	16	21	19	18	14	19	15	16	20	2.266	-2.881
Packers	10	11	4	10	12	8	7	6	9	2.409	0.302
Broncos	1	2	1	9	2	1	6	1	4	2.667	0.096
Patriots	11	7	6	2	7	11	9	10	7	2.699	-0.342
Bengals	8	6	10	1	10	9	10	9	8	2.726	-0.174
Bills	20	22	26	16	20	21	24	24	23	2.780	0.134
Chiefs	9	1	7	8	3	6	3	2	2	2.793	-0.320
Redskins	28	16	22	22	18	22	22	19	21	3.178	0.502
Buccaneers	23	31	30	27	22	26	26	31	31	3.304	1.068
Texans	29	26	23	32	25	25	19	25	24	3.432	0.287
Giants	30	23	20	26	29	27	31	22	27	3.542	-1.422
Falcons	18	29	24	21	31	24	25	29	26	3.881	0.382
Titans	27	14	17	13	17	15	12	15	14	4.190	1.346
Jets	19	17	27	14	23	30	23	23	22	4.595	1.580
Bears	4	10	12	23	11	13	14	13	12	4.646	-0.050
Dolphins	17	19	16	4	21	17	21	17	15	4.784	1.278
Ravens	21	24	14	31	15	16	16	20	18	5.080	0.790
Panthers	3	13	11	19	1	2	1	8	10	5.928	0.673

Observations:

49ers the most consistent. Closely followed by the Jags, Chargers and Seahawks.
Actually, speaking of consistency, I'm going to go on a little tangent now. On more than one subjective ranking list this week, the commentary pointed to the Chargers playing "inconsistently." The Chargers are actually playing very consistently this year, consistently average. In Football Outsiders' Variance rating, the Chargers rank 6th. The Chargers are nearly the most consistently-ranked in all the objective lists, which indicates they're playing consistently in all facets of the game. Can we dispel this incorrect perception of the Chargers being inconsistent now? Good.
Baltimore, now there's an inconsistent team. Miami too. And yeah, let's include the Jets in there, you just don't know which team you'll get each week.

Overall Average

	Subj vs Obj

Broncos	2.000	3.000	2.500	0.358
Seahawks	2.636	2.889	2.763	-0.696
Chiefs	2.182	4.556	3.369	0.623
49ers	4.546	4.778	4.662	0.563
Colts	4.273	5.889	5.081	-0.123
Saints	6.909	6.000	6.455	-1.538
Patriots	6.000	7.778	6.889	3.361
Bengals	8.727	7.889	8.308	-1.291
Panthers	9.909	7.556	8.732	1.868
Packers	10.546	8.556	9.551	-2.501
Lions	9.455	11.222	10.338	-0.288
Bears	11.727	12.444	12.086	2.706
Cowboys	12.818	11.889	12.354	-0.821
Titans	16.182	16.000	16.091	1.317
Chargers	15.364	17.111	16.237	-3.487
Cardinals	17.818	15.111	16.465	-0.640
Dolphins	17.000	16.333	16.667	2.675
Jets	15.273	22.000	18.636	3.439
Eagles	20.182	17.556	18.869	4.514
Ravens	19.727	19.444	19.586	-3.669
Browns	19.091	21.000	20.045	1.663
Redskins	22.000	21.111	21.556	2.594
Bills	24.000	21.778	22.889	-2.139
Texans	25.000	25.333	25.167	-1.200
Giants	25.364	26.111	25.737	0.438
Rams	26.091	25.556	25.823	-1.656
Falcons	27.091	25.222	26.157	-0.857
Raiders	25.182	28.333	26.758	-4.941
Steelers	28.000	28.000	28.000	-2.092
Buccaneers	30.818	27.444	29.131	1.411
Vikings	30.091	28.556	29.323	0.377
Jaguars	32.000	31.556	31.778	0.030

Observations:

This is about how I'd rank the teams myself. Though I'd probably put the Chiefs down a few spots. Biased? Probably.
Again, 8 of the top 13 teams are NFC Teams. And there's a sharper delineation between the Cowboys and (in this case) the Titans. The top 13 teams are the top teams, with everyone coming in behind.
Cluster of 4 teams with rankings all ~16.
Bottom 10 evenly split 5-5 between NFC and AFC.
NFC East slowly getting climbing out of the ashes.

Overall Standard Deviation

	Subj vs Obj

Jaguars	32.000	31.556	0.872	0.486
49ers	4.546	4.778	1.152	-0.098
Seahawks	2.636	2.889	1.260	0.264
Vikings	30.091	28.556	1.319	0.224
Lions	9.455	11.222	1.512	0.447
Saints	6.909	6.000	1.628	-0.095
Chargers	15.364	17.111	1.682	0.255
Rams	26.091	25.556	1.711	-1.273
Cowboys	12.818	11.889	1.715	0.158
Colts	4.273	5.889	1.732	-0.064
Steelers	28.000	28.000	1.924	-1.527
Bengals	8.727	7.889	2.032	-0.001
Broncos	2.000	3.000	2.037	0.045
Patriots	6.000	7.778	2.135	-0.301
Eagles	20.182	17.556	2.145	-2.063
Browns	19.091	21.000	2.269	-1.173
Chiefs	2.182	4.556	2.364	-0.646
Packers	10.546	8.556	2.393	0.637
Cardinals	17.818	15.111	2.396	0.233
Bills	24.000	21.778	2.408	0.022
Raiders	25.182	28.333	2.458	-0.514
Redskins	22.000	21.111	2.596	-0.128
Buccaneers	30.818	27.444	2.795	1.181
Titans	16.182	16.000	2.948	0.677
Falcons	27.091	25.222	3.015	0.012
Giants	25.364	26.111	3.035	-0.722
Texans	25.000	25.333	3.070	-0.170
Bears	11.727	12.444	3.413	-0.014
Ravens	19.727	19.444	3.865	0.553
Dolphins	17.000	16.333	3.900	0.343
Panthers	9.909	7.556	4.351	0.207
Jets	15.273	22.000	4.755	-0.219

Observations:

7 of the 10 most consistently-ranked teams are NFC teams. Jags, Chargers and Colts are the lone AFC Representatives. You'd think an "inconsistent" team like the Chargers wouldn't be ranked so consistently.
Smooth, almost linear gradation from the Jaguars down to the Texans. Then things escalate quickly.
Bears, Ravens, Dolphins, Panthers and Jets are in a league of their own when it comes to ranking consistency.

Difference in Averages

	Subj vs Obj

Jets	15.273	22.000	6.727	-0.923
Raiders	25.182	28.333	3.152	1.185
Chiefs	2.182	4.556	2.374	-1.443
Browns	19.091	21.000	1.909	5.326
Patriots	6.000	7.778	1.778	-0.722
Lions	9.455	11.222	1.768	1.668
Chargers	15.364	17.111	1.748	0.248
Colts	4.273	5.889	1.616	1.533
Broncos	2.000	3.000	1.000	0.117
Giants	25.364	26.111	0.748	-0.102
Bears	11.727	12.444	0.717	-0.700
Texans	25.000	25.333	0.333	2.066
Seahawks	2.636	2.889	0.253	0.786
49ers	4.546	4.778	0.232	1.282
Steelers	28.000	28.000	0.000	2.017
Titans	16.182	16.000	-0.182	0.835
Ravens	19.727	19.444	-0.283	-2.450
Jaguars	32.000	31.556	-0.444	-0.227
Rams	26.091	25.556	-0.535	0.798
Dolphins	17.000	16.333	-0.667	-2.184
Bengals	8.727	7.889	-0.838	-0.205
Redskins	22.000	21.111	-0.889	-0.189
Saints	6.909	6.000	-0.909	-3.076
Cowboys	12.818	11.889	-0.929	0.338
Vikings	30.091	28.556	-1.535	-0.935
Falcons	27.091	25.222	-1.869	-2.469
Packers	10.546	8.556	-1.990	-1.090
Bills	24.000	21.778	-2.222	-0.722
Panthers	9.909	7.556	-2.354	1.446
Eagles	20.182	17.556	-2.626	-0.059
Cardinals	17.818	15.111	-2.707	0.143
Buccaneers	30.818	27.444	-3.374	-2.291

Observations:

Finally! I've been pointing this out for what seems the entire season, but the subjective rankers have finally wised up and no longer are the Panthers the most under-ranked team. They're still under-ranked, but now they're 4th on that list.
On the whole, the AFC is over-ranked, and NFC under-ranked.
9 of the 14 over-ranked teams are AFC teams. That means 11 of the 17 teams that are considered under-ranked are NFC teams.
"Wait!" you say, "doesn't that only add up to 31 teams?" Good catch, dear reader. That's because the Steelers are ranked exactly 28.000 in both lists. Meaning their rankings are in agreement and there is no under- or over-ranking.

Sources

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