NFL Power Rankings

2012 NFL Power Rankings Consensus: Week 4

It's always fun to see how much each team moves in the rankings week-in and week-out. How much did the Chargers fall after their loss to the Falcons? How much higher did the Falcons climb? Those questions are answered and more in this week's Power Rankings analysis.

By John Crean@creanium Sep 26, 2012, 12:27pm PDT

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You'd think that by Week 3, with nearly 20% of the season complete, we would know more about the teams by now. But there were some major upsets this past weekend and the rankings reflect that.

One interesting thing about Power Rankings: just because one team beats another team, it doesn't automatically make them the better team. Perceptions aren't shaken after one bad (or good) game. Take the 49ers for example. The Minnesota Vikings took care of them rather handily on Sunday. Did they plummet? Not really, they only dropped on average just under 3 spots from last week. Are the Vikings ranked higher than the 49ers? Again, no. But, Minnesota does top this week's Stock Rising list.

Thankfully for the Chargers, getting blown out at home by a very good Atlanta team didn't cause them to plummet either. In fact they didn't even show up in the top-5 of the Stock Falling list. San Diego dropped an average of about 3.2 (subjective) spots this week. That's not that bad considering how bad a game it really was.

Notable Quotes

Fox Sports

The Chargers were simply outmatched on Sunday. The Falcons were better in all three phases of the game. Sometimes you just get beat, and that is what happened to the Chargers.

Sports Illustrated

Given the way their schedule unfolds, with just two home games in the next eight weeks, the Chargers could have really used a second home win last Sunday against Atlanta. But they didn't even look like they belonged on the same field as the powerful Falcons, and now trips to Kansas City and New Orleans await the next two weeks. Time for Philip Rivers and the offense to re-assert themselves.

SB Nation

The Chargers were all alone atop the AFC West last week. Now they're playing to maintain their first place lead. Chargers-Chiefs and Raiders-Broncos in Week 4. An AFC West special.

The Chargers failed their first real test of the season. Incomplete passes and 4 turnovers puts the loss squarely on the offenses shoulders. Jackie Battle accounted for nearly half of the total rushing yards with only 3 touches. Welcome back Mathews, please go sit on the bench.

I was with you until the last sentence.

Division Averages

Division	Avg Ranking
NFC West	12.6000
NFC East	12.7167
NFC North	14.0333
AFC North	15.9833
AFC East	16.8000
NFC South	19.0667
AFC West	19.8333
AFC South	20.9667

Would it be wrong to kind of expect the AFC West to be the bottom division next week?

Stock Rising

Team	Week 3 Average	Week 4 Average	Difference
MIN	27.286	19.000	8.286
ARI	14.643	6.727	7.916
SEA	18.143	11.818	6.325
OAK	30.143	25.727	4.416
CIN	17.857	13.546	4.311

Stock Falling

Team	Week 3 Average	Week 4 Average	Difference
NO	19.786	26.909	-7.123
CAR	18.000	24.455	-6.455
DET	13.500	18.818	-5.318
PHI	6.286	11.273	-4.987
DEN	10.643	15.091	-4.448

Subjective Average

	Subjective

Texans	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	1	1	1.091	1.195
Falcons	2	2	2	2	2	3	2	2	1	2	2	2.000	2.500
Ravens	3	3	5	3	3	2	4	4	3	3	3	3.273	2.298
49ers	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	4	4	4	3.818	-2.818
Giants	6	5	8	6	5	5	5	5	5	6	5	5.546	2.740
Cardinals	5	6	3	13	6	7	6	6	9	7	6	6.727	7.916
Packers	7	7	16	5	7	6	8	7	6	5	7	7.364	-3.650
Patriots	8	12	10	7	8	8	7	8	7	8	8	8.273	-2.630
Bears	11	9	7	10	12	12	11	9	8	9	10	9.818	3.253
Cowboys	12	8	6	9	9	10	12	13	14	10	11	10.364	2.922
Eagles	9	11	12	8	10	17	10	10	10	15	12	11.273	-4.987
Seahawks	10	13	11	18	11	9	9	12	12	16	9	11.818	6.325
Bengals	15	10	9	16	13	14	15	16	13	14	14	13.546	4.311
Steelers	16	15	14	12	16	11	14	15	11	12	15	13.727	-4.370
Chargers	13	16	13	15	17	19	16	11	15	11	13	14.455	-3.241
Broncos	14	17	19	14	15	13	13	14	18	13	16	15.091	-4.448
Jets	17	19	15	20	18	15	17	17	16	18	18	17.273	1.513
Bills	19	14	17	21	19	18	19	18	17	19	20	18.273	3.513
Lions	18	20	22	11	20	23	18	19	20	17	19	18.818	-5.318
Vikings	21	18	18	24	14	16	20	20	19	22	17	19.000	8.286
Redskins	22	22	25	22	22	22	21	22	21	21	21	21.909	-2.980
Buccaneers	20	23	26	23	21	24	22	21	23	20	22	22.273	-1.630
Titans	24	24	21	26	25	21	25	24	26	27	25	24.364	3.279
Chiefs	26	21	23	27	23	27	24	25	25	24	24	24.455	3.402
Panthers	23	27	29	19	27	25	23	23	27	23	23	24.455	-6.455
Raiders	27	26	20	29	26	20	27	27	30	25	26	25.727	4.416
Rams	25	25	24	25	24	26	28	30	28	26	29	26.364	-2.721
Saints	28	28	31	17	29	30	26	29	22	29	27	26.909	-7.123
Dolphins	29	31	30	28	30	31	29	26	29	28	28	29.000	-2.429
Jaguars	30	29	27	32	28	28	30	28	31	30	30	29.364	1.779
Colts	31	30	28	31	31	29	31	31	24	31	31	29.818	-3.889
Browns	32	32	32	30	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	31.818	-0.961

Observations:

The Teaxans are your new number-1 team. It's not quite a consensus this time around but it's pretty close.
The Falcons are pretty much a number-2 consensus as well. Though they have an exact 2.000 average, SB Nation (1) and PFT (3) cancel each other out and average out to 2.
After a little bit of optimism invaded Cleveland, the Browns are settling back in to their all-too-comfortable 32-spot
Sometimes you'll get pundits who are slow to join the crowd, in either direction. Sometimes teams are ranked too high, others too low. This week, CBS has given up on the Packers before everyone else and USA Today doesn't have the same faith in the Cardinals as everyone else. Also USA Today and the Seahawks and Lions.
The Chargers dropped back down to around 14th. They're still higher than they were to start the season and even following the Week 1 win. They just lost a little ground they gained when they dominated the Titans.
There aren't really any sharp delineations this week, it's kind of a smooth and consistent transition through the rankings. Somtimes clusters will develop, not so much this week.

Subjective Standard Deviation

	Subjective

Texans	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	1	1	0.288	-0.412
49ers	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	4	4	4	0.386	0.386
Falcons	2	2	2	2	2	3	2	2	1	2	2	0.426	-1.211
Browns	32	32	32	30	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	0.575	-0.485
Ravens	3	3	5	3	3	2	4	4	3	3	3	0.750	-0.229
Giants	6	5	8	6	5	5	5	5	5	6	5	0.891	-1.089
Redskins	22	22	25	22	22	22	21	22	21	21	21	1.083	-0.708
Dolphins	29	31	30	28	30	31	29	26	29	28	28	1.414	0.066
Patriots	8	12	10	7	8	8	7	8	7	8	8	1.420	-0.566
Jaguars	30	29	27	32	28	28	30	28	31	30	30	1.432	0.307
Jets	17	19	15	20	18	15	17	17	16	18	18	1.483	-0.172
Bears	11	9	7	10	12	12	11	9	8	9	10	1.527	-0.264
Buccaneers	20	23	26	23	21	24	22	21	23	20	22	1.710	-0.669
Chiefs	26	21	23	27	23	27	24	25	25	24	24	1.725	0.084
Bills	19	14	17	21	19	18	19	18	17	19	20	1.763	0.151
Steelers	16	15	14	12	16	11	14	15	11	12	15	1.814	0.705
Titans	24	24	21	26	25	21	25	24	26	27	25	1.823	-0.090
Rams	25	25	24	25	24	26	28	30	28	26	29	1.967	0.210
Broncos	14	17	19	14	15	13	13	14	18	13	16	2.021	-0.001
Colts	31	30	28	31	31	29	31	31	24	31	31	2.081	-0.106
Bengals	15	10	9	16	13	14	15	16	13	14	14	2.148	0.048
Cowboys	12	8	6	9	9	10	12	13	14	10	11	2.227	0.042
Chargers	13	16	13	15	17	19	16	11	15	11	13	2.388	-0.153
Cardinals	5	6	3	13	6	7	6	6	9	7	6	2.416	-0.849
Eagles	9	11	12	8	10	17	10	10	10	15	12	2.526	0.903
Vikings	21	18	18	24	14	16	20	20	19	22	17	2.697	1.419
Panthers	23	27	29	19	27	25	23	23	27	23	23	2.709	0.259
Seahawks	10	13	11	18	11	9	9	12	12	16	9	2.790	-0.545
Packers	7	7	16	5	7	6	8	7	6	5	7	2.869	1.484
Lions	18	20	22	11	20	23	18	19	20	17	19	2.979	0.783
Raiders	27	26	20	29	26	20	27	27	30	25	26	3.018	1.716
Saints	28	28	31	17	29	30	26	29	22	29	27	3.872	-0.682

Observations:

There is no unanimous consensus this week. But the Texans are still solidly the consensus number-one this week.
I expected the Falcons to be more consistently ranked, but the 49ers actually edged them out.
Like I said: Cleveland is settling in.
Even though the Chargers are down in the bottom-third of consistency, their STDEV actually went down this week. So a consensus is slowly devloping there.
Interesting. Usually when a team moves, their STDDEV tends to go up. There are some exceptions to that rule (see the Chargers) but look at the Broncos. They dropped nearly 4.5 spots this week, but it was practically in unison across the board.
Interestingly, 9 of the 11 least-consistently-ranked teams are NFC teams. It seems like the NFC is a little more difficult to figure out?

Objective Average

	Objective

Falcons	1	2	4	3	2.500	4.000
Ravens	3	4	1	7	3.750	2.500
Texans	5	3	3	10	5.250	1.750
Patriots	2	7	2	15	6.500	-0.250
Cardinals	24	1	5	1	7.750	3.000
Seahawks	19	5	6	2	8.000	1.250
49ers	10	10	8	6	8.500	-3.500
Giants	7	8	7	13	8.750	4.500
Eagles	13	6	17	5	10.250	-3.750
Packers	4	14	9	14	10.250	-4.000
Jets	12	11	12	11	11.500	4.000
Cowboys	16	9	14	8	11.750	-0.250
Bears	6	18	11	17	13.000	0.500
Bills	9	15	18	12	13.500	9.500
Vikings	17	20	16	4	14.250	10.500
Broncos	8	16	15	18	14.250	-3.750
Chargers	22	13	13	9	14.250	-2.750
Steelers	14	17	10	23	16.000	-5.750
Bengals	26	12	19	16	18.250	3.000
Dolphins	20	19	22	20	20.250	-1.250
Lions	15	25	20	27	21.750	-6.750
Jaguars	30	22	24	19	23.750	7.250
Buccaneers	23	26	23	25	24.250	-1.250
Saints	11	31	25	32	24.750	-3.500
Chiefs	29	21	28	21	24.750	5.250
Redskins	21	27	21	31	25.000	-5.250
Raiders	25	24	29	22	25.000	2.500
Titans	28	23	26	24	25.250	-0.500
Panthers	18	28	31	29	26.500	-5.000
Colts	27	30	27	26	27.500	-2.750
Browns	31	32	30	28	30.250	-3.000
Rams	32	29	32	30	30.750	-6.250

Observations:

Football Outsiders: not convinced about the Cardinals, nor Seahawks. And still holding out hope for the Saints. (Most of this can be explained by the fact that their rankings still use 55% pre-season projections).
The Chargers actually dropped less this week Objectively than they did Subjectively. Even though it looked like a terrible game, it wasn't that bad?
Vikings had an excellent showing against San Francisco, and are rewarded handsomly with a 10.5-spot jump in the Objective Rankings this week.
A three-way tie at 14.25 between the Vikings, Broncos and Chargers. Neat.

Objective Standard Deviation

	Objective

Jets	12	11	12	11	0.500	-5.437
Dolphins	20	19	22	20	1.090	-1.826
Falcons	1	2	4	3	1.118	-2.453
Rams	32	29	32	30	1.299	-4.804
Buccaneers	23	26	23	25	1.299	-2.307
Browns	31	32	30	28	1.479	-0.306
Colts	27	30	27	26	1.500	-2.332
49ers	10	10	8	6	1.658	-3.085
Titans	28	23	26	24	1.920	-0.568
Ravens	3	4	1	7	2.165	-1.467
Giants	7	8	7	13	2.488	-0.781
Raiders	25	24	29	22	2.550	0.892
Texans	5	3	3	10	2.861	0.625
Cowboys	16	9	14	8	3.345	-1.372
Bills	9	15	18	12	3.354	-0.182
Chiefs	29	21	28	21	3.767	1.896
Broncos	8	16	15	18	3.767	-0.074
Jaguars	30	22	24	19	4.023	3.316
Packers	4	14	9	14	4.146	-0.177
Redskins	21	27	21	31	4.243	1.130
Lions	15	25	20	27	4.657	1.266
Steelers	14	17	10	23	4.743	1.398
Chargers	22	13	13	9	4.763	2.584
Bears	6	18	11	17	4.848	-0.127
Eagles	13	6	17	5	4.969	2.097
Panthers	18	28	31	29	5.025	-2.541
Bengals	26	12	19	16	5.117	1.772
Patriots	2	7	2	15	5.315	-0.824
Vikings	17	20	16	4	6.098	2.075
Seahawks	19	5	6	2	6.519	-0.494
Saints	11	31	25	32	8.378	1.051
Cardinals	24	1	5	1	9.523	-2.126

Observations:

The three teams with the highest STD DEV this week can all thank Football Outsiders for that.
San Diego's STD DEV went up this week, again thanks to FBO.
I've talked about this before, but usually the best and worst teams tend to have the lowest STD DEV merely by the fact that they can only move so far at each end. When teams in the middle tend to be the most consistently-ranked, it's fun to see. This week the two most (objectively) consistently-ranked teams are the Jets and Dolphins; at 11.500 and 20.250 positions respectively.

Overall Average

	Subj vs Obj

Falcons	2.000	2.500	2.250	3.250
Texans	1.091	5.250	3.170	1.473
Ravens	3.273	3.750	3.511	2.400
49ers	3.818	8.500	6.159	-3.159
Giants	5.546	8.750	7.148	3.620
Cardinals	6.727	7.750	7.239	5.457
Patriots	8.273	6.500	7.386	-1.440
Packers	7.364	10.250	8.807	-3.825
Seahawks	11.818	8.000	9.909	3.787
Eagles	11.273	10.250	10.761	-4.368
Cowboys	10.364	11.750	11.057	1.336
Bears	9.818	13.000	11.409	1.877
Chargers	14.455	14.250	14.352	-2.995
Jets	17.273	11.500	14.386	2.757
Broncos	15.091	14.250	14.670	-4.099
Steelers	13.727	16.000	14.864	-5.060
Bills	18.273	13.500	15.886	6.507
Bengals	13.546	18.250	15.898	3.656
Vikings	19.000	14.250	16.625	9.393
Lions	18.818	21.750	20.284	-6.034
Buccaneers	22.273	24.250	23.261	-1.440
Redskins	21.909	25.000	23.455	-4.116
Chiefs	24.455	24.750	24.602	4.327
Dolphins	29.000	20.250	24.625	-1.839
Titans	24.364	25.250	24.807	1.389
Raiders	25.727	25.000	25.364	3.457
Panthers	24.455	26.500	25.477	-5.727
Saints	26.909	24.750	25.830	-5.312
Jaguars	29.364	23.750	26.557	4.514
Rams	26.364	30.750	28.557	-4.486
Colts	29.818	27.500	28.659	-3.320
Browns	31.818	30.250	31.034	-1.980

Observations:

Once you factor in overall average, the Falcons knock-off the Texans as the top team in the league. In fact, the Texans are closer to number-3 Baltimore than they are the number-1 Atlanta.
This is where distinct clusters have developed. Look at the cluster of the teams ranked higher than 12th, then a cluster at 14-16, and another cluster at 20-on-down.
Of the top 12 teams, the NFC claims 9 spots to the AFC's 3. The NFC is turning into the power conference this year.
The Chargers are the next-best team out of the top-12, narrowly edging out the Broncos.

Overall Standard Deviation

	Subj vs Obj

Falcons	2.000	2.500	0.718	-1.650
Browns	31.818	30.250	1.143	-0.814
Ravens	3.273	3.750	1.306	-0.632
Buccaneers	22.273	24.250	1.833	-1.039
Titans	24.364	25.250	1.890	-0.491
Giants	5.546	8.750	2.059	-1.053
Colts	29.818	27.500	2.197	-0.490
49ers	3.818	8.500	2.265	-0.522
Texans	1.091	5.250	2.372	0.063
Chiefs	24.455	24.750	2.446	0.531
Broncos	15.091	14.250	2.630	0.088
Cowboys	10.364	11.750	2.645	-0.390
Rams	26.364	30.750	2.655	-0.632
Redskins	21.909	25.000	2.744	0.561
Jets	17.273	11.500	2.863	-0.577
Raiders	25.727	25.000	2.918	1.147
Steelers	13.727	16.000	3.070	1.178
Patriots	8.273	6.500	3.103	-0.289
Bills	18.273	13.500	3.120	0.872
Bears	9.818	13.000	3.155	0.322
Chargers	14.455	14.250	3.200	0.732
Eagles	11.273	10.250	3.386	1.414
Jaguars	29.364	23.750	3.462	2.414
Packers	7.364	10.250	3.500	0.901
Panthers	24.455	26.500	3.596	-0.821
Lions	18.818	21.750	3.738	1.151
Bengals	13.546	18.250	3.833	1.021
Dolphins	29.000	20.250	4.093	0.458
Vikings	19.000	14.250	4.434	1.989
Seahawks	11.818	8.000	4.460	-1.306
Cardinals	6.727	7.750	5.354	-1.054
Saints	26.909	24.750	5.534	0.202

Observations:

That's better: now the best and worst teams on the list are the most consistently-ranked.
The Chargers are still towards the bottom of this list. Much like us fans, the rest of the nation is a little unsure of this team.
Even though the NFC owned the top 12 teams list, they aren't doing so well when it comes to garnering a consensus. Again, 8 of the 11 lest-consistent teams are in the NFC.

Difference in Averages

	Subj vs Obj

Bengals	13.546	18.250	4.705	-1.312
49ers	3.818	8.500	4.682	-0.682
Rams	26.364	30.750	4.386	-3.529
Texans	1.091	5.250	4.159	0.555
Giants	5.546	8.750	3.205	1.759
Bears	9.818	13.000	3.182	-2.753
Redskins	21.909	25.000	3.091	-2.270
Lions	18.818	21.750	2.932	-1.432
Packers	7.364	10.250	2.886	-0.350
Steelers	13.727	16.000	2.273	-1.380
Panthers	24.455	26.500	2.046	1.454
Buccaneers	22.273	24.250	1.977	0.380
Cowboys	10.364	11.750	1.386	-3.172
Cardinals	6.727	7.750	1.023	-4.916
Titans	24.364	25.250	0.886	-3.779
Falcons	2.000	2.500	0.500	1.500
Ravens	3.273	3.750	0.477	0.202
Chiefs	24.455	24.750	0.296	1.847
Chargers	14.455	14.250	-0.205	0.491
Raiders	25.727	25.000	-0.727	-1.916
Broncos	15.091	14.250	-0.841	0.698
Eagles	11.273	10.250	-1.023	1.237
Browns	31.818	30.250	-1.568	-2.039
Patriots	8.273	6.500	-1.773	2.380
Saints	26.909	24.750	-2.159	3.623
Colts	29.818	27.500	-2.318	1.139
Seahawks	11.818	8.000	-3.818	-5.075
Vikings	19.000	14.250	-4.750	2.214
Bills	18.273	13.500	-4.773	5.987
Jaguars	29.364	23.750	-5.614	5.471
Jets	17.273	11.500	-5.773	2.487
Dolphins	29.000	20.250	-8.750	1.179

Observations:

The gap between the humans and the robots is getting narrower each week. Last week, the biggest swing was 4.964 to -8.893. This week it's only 4.705 to -8.750. Slow progress.
Either the perception is way off on the Bengals, 49ers, Rams and Texans, or they really are playing better than the computers suggest. Usually it's the latter, but sometimes the bottom does drop out of a team and they end up falling to their Objective average.
Ever since they drafted Sam Bradford, there has been hope that the Rams are better than they seem; this year is no exception as the subjective rankers are still holding the Rams up.
Looks like the AFC East is getting no respect: 3 of 4 most under-ranked teams come from the AFC East. The Dolphins are running away with it too. I guess first impressions are more important than I thought.
The Chargers have settled. They actually have the smallest disparity between their Subjective and Objective rankings; they're about where they should be.