2012 NFL Power Rankings Consensus: Week 3

Week 3 brings more shakeups as the Cardinals and Seahawks are climbing thanks to surprising victories, while the Saints and Chiefs keep tumbling.

By John Crean@creanium Sep 19, 2012, 1:42pm PDT

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More shakeups! Thankfully the NFL didn't save all the big surprises for week 1 as week 2 saw a few more shocking outcomes. Who would have ever expected the Cardinals could ever knock-off the Patriots in Foxboro? Or the Seahawks completely dominating the Cowboys? Or the Saints dropping to 0-2 at the hands of the Carolina Panthers? Or who expected the Chiefs to be this bad to start the season?

This is the beauty of the NFL: your pre-conceived notions mean nothing. The game is played on the field and what you expect to happen means nothing once the game starts. Now, I said that as kind of a blanket statement, but it does become less and less true as the season goes on.

Heading into this week, this is absolutely the Chargers' "Statement Game." Should they manage to beat the Falcons, this will go a long way to improving their stock. They have already risen quite a bit (you'll see that shortly), but this will make a statement. Maybe not quite as strong a statement as Arizona taking down the Patriots, but it'll solidify the Chargers as a top-10 team.

Notable Quotes

Sports Illustrated

I know I quote SI a lot, but Don Banks is easily the most on-point of all the pundits week-in-and-week-out.

I'm containing my enthusiasm for the Chargers because they've beaten a pair of AFC bottom-feeders in Oakland and Tennessee. But you can't downgrade San Diego too far for getting two Ws and only allowing 24 points in the process. So the Norv Turner Survivor Tour rolls on into Week 3, and a much tougher test awaits this week as red-hot Atlanta pays a visit to Qualcomm Stadium. That should tell us a little bit more about who these Chargers really are.

ProFootballTalk

Yes, they’ve beaten no one. But the fact that the notoriously slow-starting Chargers have charged to 2-0 is big news.

Fox

The Chargers nearly doubled the offensive production of the Titans and that was without two of their biggest weapons in Antonio Gates and Ryan Mathews. The Chargers have historically gotten off to a slow start, but now sitting at 2-0, it may be time to take them seriously again.

Run plays up the gut were designed for players like Jackie Battle. Luckily, Norv Turner realized the Chargers have a Jackie Battle and put him in late in the game. Dominant clock management, Dante Rosario, and a relentless defensive performance put this game in the win column. First 2-0 start since 06!

Division Averages

Division	Avg Ranking
NFC East	11.9306
NFC West	13.9167
NFC North	14.5000
AFC North	15.9861
NFC South	16.2500
AFC East	17.6944
AFC West	19.9444
AFC South	21.7778

So the NFC is becoming the powerhouse conference in the NFL now as the top 3 divisions are NFC divisions, and the AFC occupies the bottom 3 positions. As you'll see later, the only thing keeping the AFC West out of the cellar is the Chargers and Broncos being ranked higher. Get it together Kansas City and Oakland!

Stock Rising

Team	Week 2 Average	Week 3 Average	Difference
ARI	22.000	14.643	7.357
SDG	16.462	11.214	5.248
SEA	23.385	18.143	5.242
PHI	11.308	6.286	5.022
MIA	30.923	26.571	4.352

Observations:

The Chargers are on the move!
It's no surprise that the 2-0 Cardinals, coming off a huge upset of New England, have risen the most.
Should the Chargers knock off the Falcons, I can't wait to see how much more they'd climb.
Maybe it was a bit early to completely write off Miami in Week 1
You'll see shortly, this likely won't be the last time we see Seattle on this list

Stock Falling

Team	Week 2 Average	Week 3 Average	Difference
NO	12.846	19.786	-6.940
KC	20.923	27.857	-6.934
NE	1.385	5.643	-4.258
DAL	9.077	13.286	-4.209
TEN	23.539	27.643	-4.104

Observations:

EVERYONE OFF THE NEW ORLEANS BANDWAGON!
It's no surprise the Chiefs are slipping this quickly, they have looked awful in the first two games. And as you'll see in a bit, they likely haven't hit rock-bottom yet.
Glad to see the Chargers were able to knock Tennessee into the "Stock Falling" list

Subjective Average

	Subjective

49ers	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1.000	1.000
Texans	2	2	2	4	2	2	2	2	2	4	2	2	2	2	2.286	1.560
Packers	4	6	7	2	3	3	4	5	3	2	3	3	3	4	3.714	1.748
Falcons	3	3	3	5	6	9	3	3	6	5	4	4	4	5	4.500	2.115
Ravens	6	5	6	6	4	6	6	4	5	6	6	5	5	8	5.571	-2.417
Patriots	5	8	10	3	5	5	7	6	4	3	7	6	7	3	5.643	-4.258
Eagles	7	4	4	8	7	4	5	9	7	8	5	8	6	6	6.286	5.022
Giants	8	7	15	7	8	8	9	8	8	7	9	7	8	7	8.286	0.176
Steelers	9	9	8	11	10	7	10	10	10	11	8	9	10	9	9.357	1.951
Broncos	10	12	13	14	9	10	8	7	9	14	11	11	11	10	10.643	-2.258
Chargers	11	15	5	15	12	11	11	11	11	15	10	10	9	11	11.214	5.248
Bears	12	10	14	13	14	18	12	12	12	13	13	12	15	13	13.071	-3.994
Cowboys	15	13	12	9	15	17	15	13	13	9	15	14	14	12	13.286	-4.209
Lions	13	11	17	10	17	14	14	14	15	10	12	13	13	16	13.500	-0.269
Cardinals	14	16	9	17	11	12	13	16	14	17	16	15	12	23	14.643	7.357
Bengals	16	14	16	18	20	21	20	15	20	18	18	16	18	20	17.857	0.143
Panthers	19	20	18	16	21	13	18	17	19	16	22	21	17	15	18.000	3.385
Seahawks	17	22	11	20	13	15	16	20	21	20	23	20	19	17	18.143	5.242
Jets	18	17	19	19	22	19	19	22	17	19	20	18	16	18	18.786	-2.940
Redskins	20	19	21	21	16	16	17	19	18	21	17	19	20	21	18.929	-3.083
Saints	24	24	23	12	23	24	22	18	23	12	14	22	22	14	19.786	-6.940
Buccaneers	21	18	24	22	18	22	21	21	16	22	24	17	21	22	20.643	-0.258
Bills	22	21	20	23	24	20	23	23	22	23	19	23	23	19	21.786	2.599
Rams	23	23	22	24	19	23	24	24	24	24	27	24	24	26	23.643	3.972
Colts	27	25	25	30	25	25	25	27	26	30	21	25	25	27	25.929	3.225
Dolphins	25	29	26	28	27	26	26	25	25	28	26	26	26	29	26.571	4.352
Vikings	29	28	30	26	26	27	27	28	28	26	25	27	27	28	27.286	-1.363
Titans	26	27	29	25	31	29	28	26	29	25	29	30	28	25	27.643	-4.104
Chiefs	28	26	28	27	30	28	29	29	27	27	28	28	31	24	27.857	-6.934
Raiders	30	30	27	29	32	30	31	32	31	29	31	29	30	31	30.143	-3.989
Browns	32	31	32	31	29	32	30	30	32	31	30	31	29	32	30.857	0.143
Jaguars	31	32	31	32	28	31	32	31	30	32	32	32	32	30	31.143	-2.220

Observations:

Well that didn't take long. The 49ers are your unanimous pick for the best team in the NFL.
Even though the NFC dominates the divisional rankings, interestingly enough the top 12 teams are evenly split between the NFC and AFC.
But, AFC teams occupy all of the bottom-5 spots this week. Way to bring the class down, fellas.
Though the Browns lost again this week, they actually moved up slightly, but only to make room for the Jaguars.

Subjective Standard Deviation

	Subjective

49ers	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0.000	-0.785
Texans	2	2	2	4	2	2	2	2	2	4	2	2	2	2	0.700	-0.069
Ravens	6	5	6	6	4	6	6	4	5	6	6	5	5	8	0.979	-0.047
Browns	32	31	32	31	29	32	30	30	32	31	30	31	29	32	1.060	0.275
Steelers	9	9	8	11	10	7	10	10	10	11	8	9	10	9	1.109	-0.573
Jaguars	31	32	31	32	28	31	32	31	30	32	32	32	32	30	1.125	0.128
Vikings	29	28	30	26	26	27	27	28	28	26	25	27	27	28	1.278	0.071
Raiders	30	30	27	29	32	30	31	32	31	29	31	29	30	31	1.302	-1.905
Dolphins	25	29	26	28	27	26	26	25	25	28	26	26	26	29	1.348	0.277
Packers	4	6	7	2	3	3	4	5	3	2	3	3	3	4	1.385	0.107
Bills	22	21	20	23	24	20	23	23	22	23	19	23	23	19	1.612	-0.520
Eagles	7	4	4	8	7	4	5	9	7	8	5	8	6	6	1.623	-0.990
Falcons	3	3	3	5	6	9	3	3	6	5	4	4	4	5	1.637	-0.306
Chiefs	28	26	28	27	30	28	29	29	27	27	28	28	31	24	1.641	-1.033
Jets	18	17	19	19	22	19	19	22	17	19	20	18	16	18	1.655	0.424
Rams	23	23	22	24	19	23	24	24	24	24	27	24	24	26	1.757	-0.146
Bears	12	10	14	13	14	18	12	12	12	13	13	12	15	13	1.791	-0.302
Redskins	20	19	21	21	16	16	17	19	18	21	17	19	20	21	1.791	-0.203
Titans	26	27	29	25	31	29	28	26	29	25	29	30	28	25	1.913	0.007
Giants	8	7	15	7	8	8	9	8	8	7	9	7	8	7	1.980	-0.081
Patriots	5	8	10	3	5	5	7	6	4	3	7	6	7	3	1.986	1.361
Broncos	10	12	13	14	9	10	8	7	9	14	11	11	11	10	2.022	-0.566
Bengals	16	14	16	18	20	21	20	15	20	18	18	16	18	20	2.100	-0.412
Cowboys	15	13	12	9	15	17	15	13	13	9	15	14	14	12	2.185	0.500
Colts	27	25	25	30	25	25	25	27	26	30	21	25	25	27	2.187	-0.996
Lions	13	11	17	10	17	14	14	14	15	10	12	13	13	16	2.196	0.669
Buccaneers	21	18	24	22	18	22	21	21	16	22	24	17	21	22	2.379	0.358
Panthers	19	20	18	16	21	13	18	17	19	16	22	21	17	15	2.450	0.213
Chargers	11	15	5	15	12	11	11	11	11	15	10	10	9	11	2.541	1.041
Cardinals	14	16	9	17	11	12	13	16	14	17	16	15	12	23	3.265	0.409
Seahawks	17	22	11	20	13	15	16	20	21	20	23	20	19	17	3.335	0.602
Saints	24	24	23	12	23	24	22	18	23	12	14	22	22	14	4.554	2.807

Observations:

See? I told you the 49ers were the unanimous choice
The Texans aren't too far behind at that 2nd-best spot
The Ravens are slowly settling into the number-6 spot
Chargers are on the move this week, but not everyone is convinced
There are a few die-hards in there holding onto that hope that the Saints aren't that bad. The Saints are ranked anywhere from 12th down to 24th; that's quite a swing!

Objective Average

	Objective

49ers	13	2	4	1	5.000	3.000
Patriots	1	7	1	16	6.250	-4.917
Packers	2	13	3	7	6.250	2.083
Ravens	5	6	2	12	6.250	-2.250
Falcons	3	9	11	3	6.500	2.500
Eagles	11	4	7	4	6.500	1.167
Texans	4	10	6	8	7.000	1.667
Seahawks	21	3	8	5	9.250	10.083
Steelers	10	12	5	14	10.250	2.417
Broncos	8	16	12	6	10.500	0.500
Cardinals	30	1	10	2	10.750	8.250
Cowboys	16	5	16	9	11.500	-5.500
Chargers	15	11	9	11	11.500	0.833
Giants	14	8	14	17	13.250	-2.583
Bears	7	21	13	13	13.500	-3.167
Lions	19	14	17	10	15.000	3.667
Jets	6	20	15	21	15.500	-5.833
Dolphins	23	18	20	15	19.000	6.000
Redskins	22	15	19	23	19.750	-6.083
Bengals	25	17	24	19	21.250	1.750
Saints	12	23	18	32	21.250	-8.250
Panthers	9	22	27	28	21.500	2.500
Bills	17	25	26	24	23.000	2.333
Buccaneers	18	24	28	22	23.000	-1.333
Rams	32	19	29	18	24.500	6.833
Colts	28	29	22	20	24.750	2.917
Titans	24	27	21	27	24.750	-4.417
Vikings	20	31	23	25	24.750	-2.750
Browns	29	26	25	29	27.250	-1.250
Raiders	26	28	30	26	27.500	-1.167
Chiefs	27	30	32	31	30.000	-5.667
Jaguars	31	32	31	30	31.000	-3.333

Observations:

I'll be the first to admit: it's kind of hard to compare these numbers to last week's as the sources have changed each week
Even though it's labeled "DVOA", that ranking actually uses Football Outsider's DAVE rating. I should fix that ...
Right now, DAVE relies on 75% pre-season projections to rank teams. That's why the 49ers are still ranked 13th over at Football Outsiders, but 4-or-better at the other sites.
Most of the Objective rankings take until about Week 4 before there's enough data to objectively portray a team's play accurately
That all said, the Chargers have climbed slightly this week in the Objective rankings, even though they've only taken out "lesser" opponents

Objective Standard Deviation

	Objective

Jaguars	31	32	31	30	0.707	-1.787
Raiders	26	28	30	26	1.658	-0.836
Browns	29	26	25	29	1.785	-2.298
Chiefs	27	30	32	31	1.871	-3.864
Chargers	15	11	9	11	2.179	-2.605
Texans	4	10	6	8	2.236	-1.163
Titans	24	27	21	27	2.488	-0.006
Eagles	11	4	7	4	2.872	0.515
Dolphins	23	18	20	15	2.916	-0.643
Redskins	22	15	19	23	3.113	-2.906
Giants	14	8	14	17	3.269	-1.445
Bengals	25	17	24	19	3.345	1.931
Steelers	10	12	5	14	3.345	-1.152
Lions	19	14	17	10	3.391	0.300
Bills	17	25	26	24	3.536	-0.235
Falcons	3	9	11	3	3.571	-2.145
Buccaneers	18	24	28	22	3.606	-1.178
Ravens	5	6	2	12	3.632	2.218
Colts	28	29	22	20	3.832	-0.358
Broncos	8	16	12	6	3.841	1.013
Vikings	20	31	23	25	4.023	1.573
Packers	2	13	3	7	4.323	-0.666
Cowboys	16	5	16	9	4.717	0.171
49ers	13	2	4	1	4.743	-2.328
Bears	7	21	13	13	4.975	-0.818
Jets	6	20	15	21	5.937	3.312
Rams	32	19	29	18	6.103	5.160
Patriots	1	7	1	16	6.139	5.668
Seahawks	21	3	8	5	7.013	2.024
Saints	12	23	18	32	7.327	3.768
Panthers	9	22	27	28	7.566	-0.223
Cardinals	30	1	10	2	11.649	2.233

Observations:

That's crazy, all 4 of the worst-ranked teams overall also happen to have the lowest Standard Deviation, meaning the consensus is there that they're all terrible.
Who breaks that trend? The Chargers! They're one of the more consistently-ranked teams
Remember me talking about that DAVE ranking? Well it seems to be holding Arizona down as FBO has them ranked 30th, yet the other sites much higher. Same story for Seattle.
The inverse is true for New Orleans and Carolina

Overall Average

	Subj vs Obj

49ers	1.000	5.000	3.000	2.000
Texans	2.286	7.000	4.643	1.613
Packers	3.714	6.250	4.982	1.915
Falcons	4.500	6.500	5.500	2.308
Ravens	5.571	6.250	5.911	-2.334
Patriots	5.643	6.250	5.946	-4.587
Eagles	6.286	6.500	6.393	3.094
Steelers	9.357	10.250	9.804	2.183
Broncos	10.643	10.500	10.571	-0.879
Giants	8.286	13.250	10.768	-1.204
Chargers	11.214	11.500	11.357	3.040
Cowboys	13.286	11.500	12.393	-4.855
Cardinals	14.643	10.750	12.696	7.804
Bears	13.071	13.500	13.286	-3.581
Seahawks	18.143	9.250	13.696	7.663
Lions	13.500	15.000	14.250	1.699
Jets	18.786	15.500	17.143	-4.387
Redskins	18.929	19.750	19.339	-4.583
Bengals	17.857	21.250	19.554	0.946
Panthers	18.000	21.500	19.750	2.942
Saints	19.786	21.250	20.518	-7.595
Buccaneers	20.643	23.000	21.821	-0.795
Bills	21.786	23.000	22.393	2.466
Dolphins	26.571	19.000	22.786	5.176
Rams	23.643	24.500	24.071	5.403
Colts	25.929	24.750	25.339	3.071
Vikings	27.286	24.750	26.018	-2.056
Titans	27.643	24.750	26.196	-4.260
Raiders	30.143	27.500	28.821	-2.577
Chiefs	27.857	30.000	28.929	-6.301
Browns	30.857	27.250	29.054	-0.554
Jaguars	31.143	31.000	31.071	-2.776

Observations:

The top-12 hasn't changed too much here
Seattle jumps quite a bit, buoyed by their Objective rankings. Same story in Miami
The Jets are being dragged back down by their Subjective rankings. Jumping ship already.

Overall Standard Deviation

	Subj vs Obj

Jaguars	31.143	31.000	1.048	0.440
Raiders	30.143	27.500	1.771	1.316
Steelers	9.357	10.250	1.892	0.632
Chiefs	27.857	30.000	1.915	1.793
Ravens	5.571	6.250	1.938	-0.780
Browns	30.857	27.250	1.957	0.770
Eagles	6.286	6.500	1.972	0.962
Redskins	18.929	19.750	2.183	1.095
Bills	21.786	23.000	2.248	0.301
Texans	2.286	7.000	2.309	0.179
Falcons	4.500	6.500	2.368	0.804
Titans	27.643	24.750	2.381	0.003
Vikings	27.286	24.750	2.445	-0.288
Chargers	11.214	11.500	2.468	0.484
Broncos	10.643	10.500	2.542	0.284
Lions	13.500	15.000	2.587	0.274
Packers	3.714	6.250	2.599	0.094
Colts	25.929	24.750	2.687	0.757
49ers	1.000	5.000	2.787	1.132
Bengals	17.857	21.250	2.812	0.239
Bears	13.071	13.500	2.833	0.344
Buccaneers	20.643	23.000	2.872	-0.068
Cowboys	13.286	11.500	3.035	-0.274
Giants	8.286	13.250	3.112	-0.221
Rams	23.643	24.500	3.287	-1.003
Patriots	5.643	6.250	3.392	-2.792
Jets	18.786	15.500	3.440	-0.552
Dolphins	26.571	19.000	3.635	-0.693
Panthers	18.000	21.500	4.417	-0.357
Saints	19.786	21.250	5.332	-3.128
Seahawks	18.143	9.250	5.766	-2.128
Cardinals	14.643	10.750	6.408	-1.446

Observations:

You would be confident in saying the Jaguars, Raiders and Chiefs are not very good teams right now
You could be just as confident in saying the Steelers, Ravens and Eagles are actually pretty good teams right now
The Cardinals and Seahawks being at the bottom of this list is no surprise. There are some pundits still holding on to their perception of these teams, but the numbers say otherwise. Also, see: Outsiders, Football
The Chargers fall right around the middle. So they're kind of consistantly-ranked, ish.

Difference in Averages

	Subj vs Obj

Giants	8.286	13.250	4.964	-2.759
Texans	2.286	7.000	4.714	0.107
49ers	1.000	5.000	4.000	2.000
Panthers	18.000	21.500	3.500	-0.885
Bengals	17.857	21.250	3.393	1.607
Packers	3.714	6.250	2.536	0.336
Buccaneers	20.643	23.000	2.357	-1.075
Chiefs	27.857	30.000	2.143	1.267
Falcons	4.500	6.500	2.000	0.385
Lions	13.500	15.000	1.500	3.936
Saints	19.786	21.250	1.464	-1.310
Bills	21.786	23.000	1.214	-0.265
Steelers	9.357	10.250	0.893	0.466
Rams	23.643	24.500	0.857	2.861
Redskins	18.929	19.750	0.821	-3.001
Ravens	5.571	6.250	0.679	0.167
Patriots	5.643	6.250	0.607	-0.658
Bears	13.071	13.500	0.429	0.827
Chargers	11.214	11.500	0.286	-4.414
Eagles	6.286	6.500	0.214	-3.855
Jaguars	31.143	31.000	-0.143	-1.113
Broncos	10.643	10.500	-0.143	2.758
Colts	25.929	24.750	-1.179	-0.308
Cowboys	13.286	11.500	-1.786	-1.291
Vikings	27.286	24.750	-2.536	-1.387
Raiders	30.143	27.500	-2.643	2.823
Titans	27.643	24.750	-2.893	-0.312
Jets	18.786	15.500	-3.286	-2.894
Browns	30.857	27.250	-3.607	-1.393
Cardinals	14.643	10.750	-3.893	0.893
Dolphins	26.571	19.000	-7.571	1.648
Seahawks	18.143	9.250	-8.893	4.842

Observations:

The Giants bounce back and win their second game and all of a sudden everyone is back on board. Not so fast, maybe? This is a fickle bunch.
Based on past coverage I've seen, it seems like the media has been wanting the Texans to be good for quite a while now. In this instance, it seems like they're hyping them up a little bit too much still. Either that or the objective rankings haven't caught up to them yet.
The media this year seems to feel slighted by the Chargers. Any early success is met with skepticism with a sense of, "we've trusted you before, we don't believe you anymore." Hopefully they can prove everyone wrong this week and dominate the Falcons.
Kansas City, based on the numbers, is playing even worse than perceived. They have a little bit more to fall.
Miami and Seattle, though they're at opposite corners of the country share one thing in common: they get no respect. Rodney Dangerfield says hello (from the grave).