2012 NFL Consensus Power Rankings: Week 2

One thing that's a constant in the NFL: Week 1 will surprise you and cause you to rethink your perceptions. That happened right away with the first game of the season when the Dallas Cowboys knocked off the defending Super Bowl champion New York Giants. No one saw that coming. A few more surprises in week 1: the New York Jets putting up 48 points against the Buffalo Bills; RGIII leading the Redskins to victory over the Saints and how about the Eagles' struggles against the Browns?

The various surprises and upsets are reflected in this week's NFL Power Rankings. To better illustrate those changes, I've made some updates to the tables. Now instead of containing both the Average and Standard Deviation for each group, I only show the Average Ranking column or the Standard Deviation column in the tables for which I'm discussing. In their place, I've added a "Change since Last Week" column that illustrates which way teams are moving from week to week. I think this will end up making things clearer and more fun to follow.

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Notable Quotes

Fox

Philip Rivers was solid in his 2012 debut, throwing for 231 yards and a touchdown. Most importantly, he didn’t have any turnovers. If he can protect the ball, this team can once again compete for the division title. Getting RB Ryan Mathews back will help.

CBS

They didn't do a lot on offense, but they have to be excited about their defensive front. There are some talented young players there.

SBNation

San Diego has gone from 13 wins to nine wins to eight wins in the last three seasons. An ugly win on Monday night is a good start.

Reddit

The Chargers started the season by going 1-5 in the red zone. The Defense was better than it has been in years, and special teams pounced on a weakened long snapper situation. Great kicking won this game in both scoring points and limiting field position. Stepping up the run game and finishing in the red zone are glaring issues that need to be resolved.

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Division Averages

Division	Avg Ranking
NFC East	10.8594
NFC North	13.6875
NFC South	15.6094
AFC North	15.9688
AFC East	17.6094
AFC West	18.0781
NFC West	18.8750
AFC South	21.3125

Stock Rising

Team	Week 1 Average	Week 2 Average	Difference
WAS	23.357	15.846	7.511
DAL	14.571	9.077	5.494
TB	25.500	20.385	5.115
NYJ	20.571	15.846	4.725
ARI	25.643	22.000	3.643

Stock Falling

Team	Week 1 Average	Week 2 Average	Difference
BUF	18.429	24.385	-5.956
NYG	2.857	8.462	-5.605
NO	7.571	12.846	-5.275
GB	1.500	5.462	-3.962
SEA	19.429	23.385	-3.956

Hit the jump to see all the rankings and the changes I've made to the tables. Sound off in the comments if you like or dislike the changes, or know of ways we can improve the rankings!

Subjective Average

	Subjective
Patriots	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	3	1	1	2	2	1		1.385		1.186
49ers	2	2	4	2	2	2	1	1	2	2	3	1	2		2.000		3.500
Ravens	3	3	5	3	3	3	4	2	5	3	1	3	3		3.154		2.846
Texans	4	4	2	5	4	4	3	4	3	5	4	4	4		3.846		1.368
Packers	5	7	7	4	5	5	8	7	4	4	5	5	5		5.462		-3.962
Falcons	6	5	3	7	6	11	6	6	6	7	10	6	7		6.615		3.099
Broncos	9	11	9	13	8	6	5	5	9	13	7	8	6		8.385		3.615
Giants	7	9	13	6	9	7	10	8	8	6	6	11	10		8.462		-5.605
Bears	8	8	10	9	13	14	7	9	7	9	9	7	8		9.077		2.137
Cowboys	10	6	6	10	7	10	9	10	10	10	12	9	9		9.077		5.494
Eagles	12	12	8	8	14	8	11	12	12	8	13	17	12		11.308		-3.308
Steelers	11	13	11	14	10	9	12	11	11	14	8	12	11		11.308		-2.808
Saints	16	10	12	11	12	15	14	14	13	11	11	14	14		12.846		-5.275
Lions	13	15	15	12	16	12	13	13	14	12	14	10	13		13.231		-1.017
Redskins	15	18	19	17	11	13	15	17	16	17	16	16	16		15.846		7.511
Jets	17	17	17	16	15	16	16	18	15	16	15	13	15		15.846		4.725
Chargers	14	20	16	15	17	18	17	16	17	15	17	15	17		16.462		1.109
Bengals	18	14	14	19	19	24	19	15	18	19	18	19	18		18.000		-3.500
Buccaneers	21	19	20	24	20	23	18	19	21	24	19	18	19		20.385		5.115
Chiefs	19	16	24	21	22	17	20	25	19	21	25	22	21		20.923		-3.066
Panthers	23	21	26	18	21	19	24	20	22	18	23	21	22		21.385		-3.242
Cardinals	20	27	18	23	26	20	21	21	20	23	27	20	20		22.000		3.643
Seahawks	26	28	22	20	18	26	23	23	24	20	26	24	24		23.385		-3.956
Titans	22	22	25	22	27	22	25	22	25	22	22	27	23		23.539		-2.825
Bills	24	23	21	25	25	27	27	24	23	25	20	26	27		24.385		-5.956
Vikings	28	25	27	27	24	25	26	26	27	27	24	25	26		25.923		2.720
Raiders	25	29	23	28	30	21	22	32	26	28	28	23	25		26.154		-1.011
Rams	27	26	29	26	23	30	29	28	30	26	29	28	28		27.615		1.242
Jaguars	29	30	28	30	28	29	28	27	28	30	30	30	29		28.923		-0.423
Colts	32	24	30	32	29	28	30	29	32	32	21	29	31		29.154		-1.654
Dolphins	30	31	31	29	32	31	32	30	31	29	32	32	32		30.923		-1.923
Browns	31	32	32	31	31	32	31	31	29	31	31	31	30		31.000		0.214

Observations:

• See the pretty little arrows now? Neat, right?
• The Chargers beat the Raiders. People like to say it was expected; Vegas disagrees as the Oakland was the favorite in the game. So technically the Chargers pulled off the upset. Perfect reasoning for Brian Billick to drop the Chargers 3 spots this week.
• Nevertheless, the Chargers still managed to gain about a full spot in the rankings this week (on average).
• The Jets and Redskins have leapfrogged the Chargers in positioning. I can't say I can argue that yet.
• The Patriots have supplanted the Packers as the subjective top team this week.

Subjective Standard Deviation

	Subjective
Patriots	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	3	1	1	2	2	1		0.625		0.279
Texans	4	4	2	5	4	4	3	4	3	5	4	4	4		0.769		0.437
Browns	31	32	32	31	31	32	31	31	29	31	31	31	30		0.785		0.735
49ers	2	2	4	2	2	2	1	1	2	2	3	1	2		0.785		1.568
Jaguars	29	30	28	30	28	29	28	27	28	30	30	30	29		0.997		1.474
Ravens	3	3	5	3	3	3	4	2	5	3	1	3	3		1.026		1.044
Dolphins	30	31	31	29	32	31	32	30	31	29	32	32	32		1.071		1.100
Vikings	28	25	27	27	24	25	26	26	27	27	24	25	26		1.207		-0.164
Jets	17	17	17	16	15	16	16	18	15	16	15	13	15		1.231		0.759
Packers	5	7	7	4	5	5	8	7	4	4	5	5	5		1.278		-0.296
Chargers	14	20	16	15	17	18	17	16	17	15	17	15	17		1.500		0.595
Lions	13	15	15	12	16	12	13	13	14	12	14	10	13		1.527		0.617
Steelers	11	13	11	14	10	9	12	11	11	14	8	12	11		1.682		0.546
Cowboys	10	6	6	10	7	10	9	10	10	10	12	9	9		1.685		-0.007
Saints	16	10	12	11	12	15	14	14	13	11	11	14	14		1.747		0.313
Rams	27	26	29	26	23	30	29	28	30	26	29	28	28		1.903		-0.496
Titans	22	22	25	22	27	22	25	22	25	22	22	27	23		1.906		-0.573
Falcons	6	5	3	7	6	11	6	6	6	7	10	6	7		1.943		-0.075
Redskins	15	18	19	17	11	13	15	17	16	17	16	16	16		1.994		-0.364
Buccaneers	21	19	20	24	20	23	18	19	21	24	19	18	19		2.021		0.450
Giants	7	9	13	6	9	7	10	8	8	6	6	11	10		2.061		-0.420
Bears	8	8	10	9	13	14	7	9	7	9	9	7	8		2.093		-0.196
Bills	24	23	21	25	25	27	27	24	23	25	20	26	27		2.132		0.063
Panthers	23	21	26	18	21	19	24	20	22	18	23	21	22		2.237		0.432
Bengals	18	14	14	19	19	24	19	15	18	19	18	19	18		2.512		0.207
Broncos	9	11	9	13	8	6	5	5	9	13	7	8	6		2.588		-0.588
Eagles	12	12	8	8	14	8	11	12	12	8	13	17	12		2.613		0.266
Chiefs	19	16	24	21	22	17	20	25	19	21	25	22	21		2.674		0.508
Seahawks	26	28	22	20	18	26	23	23	24	20	26	24	24		2.733		0.260
Cardinals	20	27	18	23	26	20	21	21	20	23	27	20	20		2.856		0.182
Colts	32	24	30	32	29	28	30	29	32	32	21	29	31		3.183		-0.004
Raiders	25	29	23	28	30	21	22	32	26	28	28	23	25		3.207		-0.592

Observations:

• With the new column, it's easier to see which teams are starting to shake things up and which teams are settling into their respective positions.
• It seems the pundits feel they know where Vikings should be as they've moved up 2 spots in the rankings, but their ranking consistency improved.
• The Chargers are one of the more consistently-ranked teams, but their Standard Deviation went up this week, which indicates they're on the move (upwards I hope)
• Amusingly, the Raiders are the least consistently-ranked team, but they actually became more consistently-ranked than they were last week
• The Chiefs are on the move! Unfortunately for their fanbase, it's downwards

Objective Average

	Objective
Patriots	1	2	1		1.333		-0.333
Ravens	5	5	2		4.000		2.500
Cowboys	12	1	5		6.000		6.500
Eagles	11	6	6		7.667		0.333
49ers	18	3	3		8.000		7.500
Packers	3	15	7		8.333		-6.333
Texans	10	12	4		8.667		2.333
Falcons	2	9	16		9.000		0.500
Jets	6	11	12		9.667		0.833
Bears	4	18	9		10.333		-0.333
Giants	14	4	14		10.667		-2.667
Broncos	7	13	13		11.000		5.000
Chargers	19	10	8		12.333		2.167
Steelers	9	19	10		12.667		-9.167
Saints	8	16	15		13.000		-8.000
Redskins	22	8	11		13.667		6.333
Lions	16	17	23		18.667		1.333
Cardinals	30	7	20		19.000		9.000
Seahawks	26	14	18		19.333		2.167
Titans	21	23	17		20.333		-5.833
Buccaneers	15	24	26		21.667		4.333
Vikings	25	22	19		22.000		1.500
Bengals	24	21	24		23.000		-3.000
Panthers	13	29	30		24.000		-5.500
Chiefs	17	25	31		24.333		-1.333
Dolphins	28	20	27		25.000		-1.000
Bills	20	28	28		25.333		-4.833
Browns	31	26	21		26.000		1.500
Raiders	23	27	29		26.333		-0.333
Jaguars	27	31	25		27.667		-0.167
Colts	29	32	22		27.667		-5.667
Rams	32	30	32		31.333		0.667

Observations:

• With so few datapoints, it's kind of hard to draw any concrete observations using objective rankings. We'll try anyway ...
• The Patriots are doing everything right so far, 1/16th of the way through the season.
• As are the Ravens and Cowboys
• Interestingly, the Eagles moved slightly up in the objective rankings even though Vick had a bad day

Objective Standard Deviation

	Objective
Patriots	1	2	1		0.471		-0.471
Rams	32	30	32		0.943		-0.943
Ravens	5	5	2		1.414		-0.914
Bengals	24	21	24		1.414		0.586
Eagles	11	6	6		2.357		1.643
Vikings	25	22	19		2.450		3.050
Titans	21	23	17		2.494		0.006
Jaguars	27	31	25		2.494		-0.994
Raiders	23	27	29		2.494		-0.494
Jets	6	11	12		2.625		-0.125
Broncos	7	13	13		2.828		2.172
Lions	16	17	23		3.091		-2.091
Texans	10	12	4		3.399		-1.399
Saints	8	16	15		3.559		-3.559
Dolphins	28	20	27		3.559		-2.559
Bills	20	28	28		3.771		0.729
Browns	31	26	21		4.083		-0.583
Colts	29	32	22		4.190		0.810
Steelers	9	19	10		4.497		-3.997
Cowboys	12	1	5		4.546		-3.046
Giants	14	4	14		4.714		-3.714
Chargers	19	10	8		4.784		-0.284
Buccaneers	15	24	26		4.784		-0.784
Seahawks	26	14	18		4.989		1.511
Packers	3	15	7		4.989		-4.989
Falcons	2	9	16		5.716		0.784
Chiefs	17	25	31		5.735		2.265
Bears	4	18	9		5.793		-1.793
Redskins	22	8	11		6.019		-6.019
49ers	18	3	3		7.071		0.429
Panthers	13	29	30		7.789		0.711
Cardinals	30	7	20		9.416		-7.416

Observations:

• Again, with so few data points, Standard Deviation is expected to be all over the place. And it is. Ranging from 0.471 to 9.416 (!!)
• Here's what's crazy: the Arizona Cardinals have the highest swing in rankings, yet it's improved from last week.
• Chargers are slightly more consistently-ranked this week, though it's still a bit inconsistent.
• A bit of this inconsistency can probably be blamed on Football Outsiders. Right now their DAVE rankings use 90% pre-season projections and 10% VOA; and their VOA isn't defensively-adjusted. So really their rankings might be a little off until week 4ish.

Overall Average

	Subj vs Obj
Patriots	1.385	1.333		1.359		0.427
Ravens	3.154	4.000		3.577		2.673
49ers	2.000	8.000		5.000		5.500
Texans	3.846	8.667		6.256		1.851
Packers	5.462	8.333		6.897		-5.147
Cowboys	9.077	6.000		7.538		5.998
Falcons	6.615	9.000		7.808		1.799
Eagles	11.308	7.667		9.487		-1.487
Giants	8.462	10.667		9.564		-4.135
Broncos	8.385	11.000		9.692		4.308
Bears	9.077	10.333		9.705		0.902
Steelers	11.308	12.667		11.987		-5.987
Jets	15.846	9.667		12.756		2.780
Saints	12.846	13.000		12.923		-6.637
Chargers	16.462	12.333		14.397		1.639
Redskins	15.846	13.667		14.756		6.923
Lions	13.231	18.667		15.949		0.158
Bengals	18.000	23.000		20.500		-3.250
Cardinals	22.000	19.000		20.500		6.321
Buccaneers	20.385	21.667		21.026		4.724
Seahawks	23.385	19.333		21.359		-0.895
Titans	23.539	20.333		21.936		-4.329
Chiefs	20.923	24.333		22.628		-2.199
Panthers	21.385	24.000		22.692		-4.371
Vikings	25.923	22.000		23.962		2.109
Bills	24.385	25.333		24.859		-5.395
Raiders	26.154	26.333		26.244		-0.673
Dolphins	30.923	25.000		27.962		-1.462
Jaguars	28.923	27.667		28.295		-0.295
Colts	29.154	27.667		28.410		-3.660
Browns	31.000	26.000		28.500		0.857
Rams	27.615	31.333		29.474		0.955

Observations:

• Poor Packers, dropping over 5 spots overall.
• Chargers at least now are in the top-50% of the league instead of the bottom 50%.
• I know the Titans were blown out by the Patriots, but the Patriots are really good this year, but I guess they played rather poorly anyway.
• Guess the optimism in Indianapolis has faded away already

Overall Standard Deviation

	Subj vs Obj
Patriots	1.385	1.333		0.600		0.392
Ravens	3.154	4.000		1.158		0.794
Jaguars	28.923	27.667		1.488		0.907
Vikings	25.923	22.000		2.157		0.604
Saints	12.846	13.000		2.204		-0.097
Rams	27.615	31.333		2.284		-0.607
Titans	23.539	20.333		2.384		0.177
Texans	3.846	8.667		2.488		-0.157
Steelers	11.308	12.667		2.524		0.142
Bills	24.385	25.333		2.549		0.137
Packers	5.462	8.333		2.693		-1.760
Browns	31.000	26.000		2.727		-0.477
Cowboys	9.077	6.000		2.761		-0.968
Buccaneers	20.385	21.667		2.804		-0.089
Broncos	8.385	11.000		2.826		0.068
Lions	13.231	18.667		2.861		0.422
Jets	15.846	9.667		2.888		1.029
Giants	8.462	10.667		2.891		-0.573
Eagles	11.308	7.667		2.934		0.107
Dolphins	30.923	25.000		2.942		-0.299
Chargers	16.462	12.333		2.952		-0.231
Bengals	18.000	23.000		3.051		0.155
Raiders	26.154	26.333		3.087		-0.525
Falcons	6.615	9.000		3.172		-0.284
Bears	9.077	10.333		3.177		-0.873
Redskins	15.846	13.667		3.278		-1.392
Colts	29.154	27.667		3.444		0.465
Seahawks	23.385	19.333		3.638		0.048
Chiefs	20.923	24.333		3.708		0.736
49ers	2.000	8.000		3.919		0.857
Panthers	21.385	24.000		4.060		-0.151
Cardinals	22.000	19.000		4.962		-1.932

Observations:

• Again, Cardinals are the least consistently-ranked team; though their Standard Deviation dropped here too.
• The Chargers ranking consistency is bottom-third, so there isn't much of a consensus yet, but the consensus is improving

Difference in Averages

	Subj vs Obj
49ers	2.000	8.000		6.000		4.000
Lions	13.231	18.667		5.436		2.350
Bengals	18.000	23.000		5.000		0.500
Texans	3.846	8.667		4.821		0.965
Rams	27.615	31.333		3.718		-0.575
Chiefs	20.923	24.333		3.410		1.733
Packers	5.462	8.333		2.872		-2.372
Broncos	8.385	11.000		2.615		1.385
Panthers	21.385	24.000		2.615		-2.258
Falcons	6.615	9.000		2.385		-2.599
Giants	8.462	10.667		2.205		2.938
Steelers	11.308	12.667		1.359		-6.359
Buccaneers	20.385	21.667		1.282		-0.782
Bears	9.077	10.333		1.256		-2.470
Bills	24.385	25.333		0.949		1.122
Ravens	3.154	4.000		0.846		-0.346
Raiders	26.154	26.333		0.180		0.677
Saints	12.846	13.000		0.154		-2.725
Patriots	1.385	1.333		-0.051		-1.520
Jaguars	28.923	27.667		-1.256		0.256
Colts	29.154	27.667		-1.487		-4.013
Redskins	15.846	13.667		-2.180		-1.177
Cardinals	22.000	19.000		-3.000		5.357
Cowboys	9.077	6.000		-3.077		1.006
Titans	23.539	20.333		-3.205		-3.009
Eagles	11.308	7.667		-3.641		3.641
Vikings	25.923	22.000		-3.923		-1.220
Seahawks	23.385	19.333		-4.051		6.122
Chargers	16.462	12.333		-4.128		1.057
Browns	31.000	26.000		-5.000		1.286
Dolphins	30.923	25.000		-5.923		0.923
Jets	15.846	9.667		-6.180		-3.891

Observations:

• This one is always fun to look at. Typically, the objective rankings react slower to a team's performance than the subjective averages. On the flipside, sometimes the subjective averages can be a bit knee-jerk since it's, well, subjective. But overall, this can be a good barometer of where a team is headed.
• Are the 49ers really better than the stats tell us? Or are appearances deceiving? Same question for the Lions, Bengals and Texans, all of whom are subjectively ranked higher than their objective rankings indicate. Also, the disparity between the rankings grew for those teams.
• Based on these differences, no one should have been that surprised by the Jets' performance this past weekend. Also, everyone seems to be quick to jump all over the Dolphins, Browns and Chargers; but stats indicate they may be better than people perceive.
• Wow, the Saints' rankings corrected themselves quite well after just one game.

Sources

• ESPN
• Fox
• CBS
• USA Today
• Sports Illustrated
• ProFootballTalk
• NFL.com
• SportingNews
• Pro Football Weekly
• National Football Post
• SB Nation
• Reddit
• Associated Press
• Football Outsiders
• Team Rankings
• Sagarin