2012 NFL Power Rankings Consensus: Week 14

We know the Chargers aren't very good. That's been made evident each week they step on the field. Whatever success they had to start the season quickly vanished following the epic collapse against the Broncos, a collapse from which the team has never been able to recover.

When we last visited these rankings (way back in Week 11), the Chargers were in the midst of a slide down the rankings. They continued to slide the last 3 weeks. What's evident here is that things haven't changed much in the last 3 weeks. I'm still unconvinced about the Colts, Texans are still the top team, etcetera etcetera etcetera. That's not to say there aren't some surprises or interesting trends.

Division Averages

Division	Avg Ranking
AFC North	13.5972
NFC North	14.0972
NFC West	14.4028
NFC South	15.2083
AFC East	16.8750
NFC East	17.0139
AFC South	18.5278
AFC West	22.2778

The AFC West is terrible and it's not even close. What amuses me, though, is how the NFC East is hyped up as a powerhouse division, but they're the worst NFC division at this point.

Stock Rising

Team	Week 11 Average	Week 14 Average	Difference
WAS	21.472	13.438	8.034
CIN	18.330	11.225	7.105
CLE	28.307	24.063	4.244
NE	6.881	2.663	4.218
BUF	26.188	22.063	4.125

All five teams are east of the Mississippi, and both Ohio teams are on this list.

Stock Falling

Team	Week 11 Average	Week 14 Average	Difference
MIN	14.938	19.775	-4.837
CHI	4.233	8.850	-4.617
PHI	24.540	28.638	-4.098
DET	16.767	20.163	-3.396
ARI	22.267	25.488	-3.221

All NFC teams.

Subjective Average

	Subjective
Texans	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1		1.000		0.000
Falcons	2	3	2	3	3	2	3	2	2	3		2.500		-0.409
Patriots	3	4	3	2	2	3	2	3	3	2		2.700		4.936
Broncos	5	2	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4		3.900		2.282
49ers	4	5	6	5	6	5	5	5	5	5		5.100		-0.373
Packers	7	6	7	6	5	6	8	7	6	7		6.500		-1.500
Ravens	6	7	5	7	8	7	7	6	7	6		6.600		-0.236
Bears	8	10	8	8	11	11	10	9	8	9		9.200		-5.109
Giants	10	12	11	10	13	8	6	8	9	8		9.500		1.318
Seahawks	12	8	12	12	7	10	9	13	10	12		10.500		0.773
Colts	9	13	10	11	9	12	11	11	12	10		10.800		0.564
Steelers	13	11	13	9	12	9	12	10	11	11		11.100		-3.100
Bengals	11	9	9	13	10	13	13	12	14	13		11.700		6.209
Redskins	14	14	14	14	14	14	15	14	13	14		14.000		8.818
Buccaneers	15	15	15	15	17	16	14	15	15	15		15.200		-1.927
Cowboys	16	16	16	16	18	15	16	16	17	16		16.200		0.073
Saints	18	18	18	18	16	17	17	18	18	17		17.500		-2.864
Vikings	17	19	19	17	19	18	18	17	16	18		17.800		-3.800
Rams	19	17	17	19	15	19	19	24	20	19		18.800		3.655
Dolphins	20	21	25	20	20	20	20	20	19	20		20.500		-1.136
Bills	23	23	21	21	21	22	22	19	22	21		21.500		4.500
Lions	21	22	24	22	24	21	23	22	21	22		22.200		-4.291
Jets	22	25	20	23	25	23	21	23	24	23		22.900		3.918
Browns	24	20	26	24	22	25	24	25	25	25		24.000		5.364
Chargers	25	24	23	25	28	24	25	26	23	24		24.700		-4.518
Titans	26	27	22	26	23	26	27	21	27	26		25.100		-1.645
Cardinals	27	26	27	28	27	28	26	28	26	28		27.100		-5.191
Panthers	28	31	28	27	26	27	29	27	28	27		27.800		0.382
Eagles	30	30	29	29	29	29	28	32	29	29		29.400		-5.945
Chiefs	31	29	30	30	30	30	30	31	32	30		30.300		1.155
Jaguars	32	28	31	31	31	32	31	30	31	32		30.900		0.646
Raiders	29	32	32	32	32	31	32	29	30	31		31.000		-2.545

Observations:

• The "Change in Value" column is referencing Week 11, not Week 13 because I never entered the rankings for Weeks 12 or 13. #Baby
• You'll notice no Sports Illustrated this week. Don Banks hadn't posted his power rankings at the time I published this post.
• It's clear who the pundits feel belong in the top 12. Well, actually it's the top 13, but the top 13 teams in this list have an average ranking of less than 12.
• Chargers keep falling.
• Whoah, Raiders are now the consensus worst team in the league, supplanting the Chiefs.

Subjective Standard Deviation

	Subjective
Texans	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1		0.000		0.000
Redskins	14	14	14	14	14	14	15	14	13	14		0.447		-1.920
Falcons	2	3	2	3	3	2	3	2	2	3		0.500		0.212
49ers	4	5	6	5	6	5	5	5	5	5		0.539		-1.117
Patriots	3	4	3	2	2	3	2	3	3	2		0.640		-0.428
Saints	18	18	18	18	16	17	17	18	18	17		0.671		-0.627
Broncos	5	2	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4		0.700		-1.100
Cowboys	16	16	16	16	18	15	16	16	17	16		0.748		-1.066
Buccaneers	15	15	15	15	17	16	14	15	15	15		0.748		-0.465
Chiefs	31	29	30	30	30	30	30	31	32	30		0.781		0.283
Ravens	6	7	5	7	8	7	7	6	7	6		0.800		-0.632
Packers	7	6	7	6	5	6	8	7	6	7		0.806		-0.322
Cardinals	27	26	27	28	27	28	26	28	26	28		0.831		-0.165
Vikings	17	19	19	17	19	18	18	17	16	18		0.980		-0.065
Eagles	30	30	29	29	29	29	28	32	29	29		1.020		-0.951
Lions	21	22	24	22	24	21	23	22	21	22		1.077		0.081
Bills	23	23	21	21	21	22	22	19	22	21		1.118		-0.296
Jaguars	32	28	31	31	31	32	31	30	31	32		1.136		0.638
Bears	8	10	8	8	11	11	10	9	8	9		1.166		-0.277
Raiders	29	32	32	32	32	31	32	29	30	31		1.183		0.195
Colts	9	13	10	11	9	12	11	11	12	10		1.249		0.270
Panthers	28	31	28	27	26	27	29	27	28	27		1.327		-0.314
Steelers	13	11	13	9	12	9	12	10	11	11		1.375		-0.532
Chargers	25	24	23	25	28	24	25	26	23	24		1.418		-1.468
Jets	22	25	20	23	25	23	21	23	24	23		1.513		0.484
Dolphins	20	21	25	20	20	20	20	20	19	20		1.565		-0.258
Browns	24	20	26	24	22	25	24	25	25	25		1.673		0.447
Bengals	11	9	9	13	10	13	13	12	14	13		1.735		0.059
Seahawks	12	8	12	12	7	10	9	13	10	12		1.911		1.049
Giants	10	12	11	10	13	8	6	8	9	8		2.013		0.747
Titans	26	27	22	26	23	26	27	21	27	26		2.119		0.195
Rams	19	17	17	19	15	19	19	24	20	19		2.227		-0.004

Observations:

• Texans still the unanimous number-1 team.
• Oh wow, look at the Redskins' consensus. Almost right in the middle and everyone is in agreement with that.
• The Saints, Cowboys and Buccaneers are also pretty consistently-ranked in the middle.
• Overall, teams are more consistently ranked this week. Look at how many green arrows there are compared to red arrows.

Objective Average

	Objective
Patriots	1	8	1	1	3	1	1	5		2.625		3.500
Texans	8	3	2	2	1	2	4	1		2.875		-0.750
Broncos	2	1	3	4	5	9	3	2		3.625		0.250
49ers	4	2	5	3	9	3	2	3		3.875		0.500
Falcons	14	7	4	7	4	7	7	4		6.750		0.375
Giants	7	6	12	6	8	5	6	11		7.625		3.500
Seahawks	3	5	9	9	10	10	8	7		7.625		0.000
Bears	6	14	13	5	11	4	5	10		8.500		-4.125
Packers	5	11	6	8	13	13	9	6		8.875		-3.750
Ravens	10	20	7	10	2	6	10	9		9.250		-0.625
Bengals	9	10	11	12	7	12	13	12		10.750		8.000
Steelers	13	16	10	14	6	11	14	8		11.500		0.125
Redskins	11	9	14	13	16	15	12	13		12.875		7.250
Buccaneers	12	15	17	11	20	8	11	14		13.500		-2.250
Rams	20	13	15	16	15	26	18	16		17.375		2.250
Saints	16	22	18	17	19	16	16	15		17.375		-0.250
Lions	15	12	24	19	25	14	19	17		18.125		-2.500
Cowboys	19	18	22	15	18	19	15	21		18.375		-5.625
Dolphins	21	17	19	21	23	18	23	20		20.250		0.125
Panthers	18	4	28	24	32	17	22	19		20.500		-1.875
Vikings	23	26	23	18	21	21	17	25		21.750		-5.875
Jets	26	19	16	22	12	30	24	26		21.875		2.375
Colts	27	25	8	23	14	25	27	27		22.000		-0.375
Bills	17	23	20	25	17	29	26	24		22.625		3.750
Chargers	22	21	26	20	28	22	20	23		22.750		-1.250
Cardinals	25	30	27	26	24	20	21	18		23.875		-1.250
Browns	24	24	21	27	27	23	25	22		24.125		3.125
Titans	29	28	25	28	22	27	29	28		27.000		-2.125
Eagles	28	27	32	29	26	24	28	29		27.875		-2.250
Jaguars	30	32	29	31	30	28	31	30		30.125		1.000
Raiders	32	29	30	30	29	32	32	31		30.625		-1.625
Chiefs	31	31	31	32	31	31	30	32		31.125		0.375

Observations:

• Patriots now ahead of Texans, but it's very close. AFC Championship game, anyone? Broncos aren't far behind either. Booooo.
• For as weak as the AFC is overall, I'm okay with seeing the top 3 teams here being AFC teams, even though all of the next six are NFC teams.
• I'm not the only one still unconvinced about the Colts. In fact, they actually dropped in Objective Rankings since 3 weeks ago.
• Huh ... Seattle's objective ranking is exactly the same as it was 3 weeks ago. Yay for consistency.
• Chiefs are still the worst team in the league using the objective rankings, but the Raiders are closing in.

Objective Standard Deviation

	Objective
Chiefs	31	31	31	32	31	31	30	32		0.600		0.100
Jaguars	30	32	29	31	30	28	31	30		1.166		0.239
Raiders	32	29	30	30	29	32	32	31		1.218		-0.440
Bengals	9	10	11	12	7	12	13	12		1.854		-1.298
Browns	24	24	21	27	27	23	25	22		2.027		0.635
Dolphins	21	17	19	21	23	18	23	20		2.046		-0.349
Redskins	11	9	14	13	16	15	12	13		2.088		-1.131
Saints	16	22	18	17	19	16	16	15		2.118		-2.689
49ers	4	2	5	3	9	3	2	3		2.147		0.151
Texans	8	3	2	2	1	2	4	1		2.147		0.182
Eagles	28	27	32	29	26	24	28	29		2.204		-1.399
Titans	29	28	25	28	22	27	29	28		2.236		-3.496
Seahawks	3	5	9	9	10	10	8	7		2.342		-0.655
Broncos	2	1	3	4	5	9	3	2		2.342		-1.065
Cowboys	19	18	22	15	18	19	15	21		2.342		0.120
Giants	7	6	12	6	8	5	6	11		2.395		-0.318
Patriots	1	8	1	1	3	1	1	5		2.446		-1.839
Chargers	22	21	26	20	28	22	20	23		2.681		-0.925
Vikings	23	26	23	18	21	21	17	25		2.948		0.100
Packers	5	11	6	8	13	13	9	6		2.977		1.286
Falcons	14	7	4	7	4	7	7	4		3.072		0.868
Steelers	13	16	10	14	6	11	14	8		3.162		0.820
Buccaneers	12	15	17	11	20	8	11	14		3.571		1.293
Bears	6	14	13	5	11	4	5	10		3.708		1.532
Cardinals	25	30	27	26	24	20	21	18		3.723		0.485
Rams	20	13	15	16	15	26	18	16		3.806		-0.580
Bills	17	23	20	25	17	29	26	24		4.029		0.715
Lions	15	12	24	19	25	14	19	17		4.314		1.359
Ravens	10	20	7	10	2	6	10	9		4.815		1.143
Jets	26	19	16	22	12	30	24	26		5.533		3.148
Colts	27	25	8	23	14	25	27	27		6.652		-0.148
Panthers	18	4	28	24	32	17	22	19		7.874		2.444

Observations:

• The bottom-3 teams as far as overall average are also the most consistently-ranked teams. The Chiefs, Raiders and Jaguars are consistently bad ... still.
• Chargers are about in the middle as far as ranking consistency.
• The Panthers' are at the bottom of this list thanks to Team Efficiency. They like something the Panthers are doing, but they're the only ones.

Overall Average

	Subj vs Obj
Texans	1.000	2.875		1.938		-0.375
Patriots	2.700	2.625		2.663		4.218
Broncos	3.900	3.625		3.763		1.265
49ers	5.100	3.875		4.488		0.063
Falcons	2.500	6.750		4.625		-0.017
Packers	6.500	8.875		7.688		-2.625
Ravens	6.600	9.250		7.925		-0.431
Giants	9.500	7.625		8.563		2.409
Bears	9.200	8.500		8.850		-4.617
Seahawks	10.500	7.625		9.063		0.386
Bengals	11.700	10.750		11.225		7.105
Steelers	11.100	11.500		11.300		-1.487
Redskins	14.000	12.875		13.438		8.034
Buccaneers	15.200	13.500		14.350		-2.089
Colts	10.800	22.000		16.400		0.094
Cowboys	16.200	18.375		17.288		-2.777
Saints	17.500	17.375		17.438		-1.557
Rams	18.800	17.375		18.088		2.952
Vikings	17.800	21.750		19.775		-4.837
Lions	22.200	18.125		20.163		-3.396
Dolphins	20.500	20.250		20.375		-0.506
Bills	21.500	22.625		22.063		4.125
Jets	22.900	21.875		22.388		3.146
Chargers	24.700	22.750		23.725		-2.884
Browns	24.000	24.125		24.063		4.244
Panthers	27.800	20.500		24.150		-0.747
Cardinals	27.100	23.875		25.488		-3.221
Titans	25.100	27.000		26.050		-1.885
Eagles	29.400	27.875		28.638		-4.098
Jaguars	30.900	30.125		30.513		0.822
Chiefs	30.300	31.125		30.713		0.764
Raiders	31.000	30.625		30.813		-2.086

Observations:

• Overall, the top-10 has an even 6-6 split between the AFC and NFC, and it's also relatively evenly distributed.
• Chargers are a bottom-third team. Let's play for draft picks now!
• After a promising run in the middle weeks, the Dolphins are faltering again. The inverse is true of the Bills
• The overall rankings are bookended by 3 AFC teams.
• Oh cool, now the Raiders are the overall worst team in the NFL. I'll take it.

Overall Standard Deviation

	Subj vs Obj
Chiefs	30.300	31.125		0.817		0.318
Jaguars	30.900	30.125		1.212		0.471
Raiders	31.000	30.625		1.213		-0.127
Saints	17.500	17.375		1.499		-1.996
Redskins	14.000	12.875		1.537		-1.525
49ers	5.100	3.875		1.606		-0.210
Broncos	3.900	3.625		1.652		-1.187
Patriots	2.700	2.625		1.700		-1.291
Texans	1.000	2.875		1.708		0.317
Dolphins	20.500	20.250		1.799		-0.343
Eagles	29.400	27.875		1.820		-1.157
Browns	24.000	24.125		1.840		0.174
Bengals	11.700	10.750		1.850		-0.596
Cowboys	16.200	18.375		1.979		-0.668
Chargers	24.700	22.750		2.291		-0.983
Steelers	11.100	11.500		2.352		-0.408
Titans	25.100	27.000		2.368		-1.690
Giants	9.500	7.625		2.381		0.369
Packers	6.500	8.875		2.386		0.991
Seahawks	10.500	7.625		2.551		-0.180
Buccaneers	15.200	13.500		2.587		0.579
Bears	9.200	8.500		2.643		0.849
Bills	21.500	22.625		2.867		0.455
Vikings	17.800	21.750		2.872		0.658
Falcons	2.500	6.750		2.965		0.089
Cardinals	27.100	23.875		3.019		0.758
Rams	18.800	17.375		3.114		-0.482
Ravens	6.600	9.250		3.521		0.673
Lions	22.200	18.125		3.608		1.258
Jets	22.900	21.875		3.891		1.743
Panthers	27.800	20.500		6.457		0.437
Colts	10.800	22.000		7.177		0.418

Observations:

• This table actually looks fairly familiar. It's pretty close to the "Objective Standard Deviation" table.
• Unlike that table though, looks like more red arrows than green arrows this week. You'd think by now teams would be figured out and we'd be able to get their standard deviation way down.

Difference in Averages

	Subj vs Obj
Colts	10.800	22.000		11.200		0.939
Falcons	2.500	6.750		4.250		-0.784
Vikings	17.800	21.750		3.950		2.075
Ravens	6.600	9.250		2.650		0.389
Packers	6.500	8.875		2.375		2.250
Cowboys	16.200	18.375		2.175		5.698
Titans	25.100	27.000		1.900		0.479
Texans	1.000	2.875		1.875		0.750
Bills	21.500	22.625		1.125		0.750
Chiefs	30.300	31.125		0.825		0.779
Steelers	11.100	11.500		0.400		-3.225
Browns	24.000	24.125		0.125		2.239
Patriots	2.700	2.625		-0.075		1.436
Saints	17.500	17.375		-0.125		-2.614
Dolphins	20.500	20.250		-0.250		-1.261
Broncos	3.900	3.625		-0.275		2.032
Raiders	31.000	30.625		-0.375		-0.921
Bears	9.200	8.500		-0.700		-0.984
Jaguars	30.900	30.125		-0.775		-0.354
Bengals	11.700	10.750		-0.950		-1.791
Jets	22.900	21.875		-1.025		1.543
Redskins	14.000	12.875		-1.125		1.568
49ers	5.100	3.875		-1.225		-0.873
Rams	18.800	17.375		-1.425		1.405
Eagles	29.400	27.875		-1.525		-3.696
Buccaneers	15.200	13.500		-1.700		0.323
Giants	9.500	7.625		-1.875		-2.182
Chargers	24.700	22.750		-1.950		-3.268
Seahawks	10.500	7.625		-2.875		0.773
Cardinals	27.100	23.875		-3.225		-3.941
Lions	22.200	18.125		-4.075		-1.791
Panthers	27.800	20.500		-7.300		2.257

Observations:

• Colts, still grossly over-ranked. And that disparity grew again in the last three weeks. Guess a last-second touchdown inflates people's perception of you.
• Falcons are still over-rated as well, though it's gotten a little better, it's still there.
• Oh hey look, the Chargers are under-ranked finally! Too bad it's a difference of 24.7 versus 22.75.
• Interesting how the AFC teams are generally the ones over-ranked and the AFC teams are the ones under-ranked.

Sources

• ESPN
• Fox
• CBS
• USA Today
• ProFootballTalk
• NFL.com
• Pro Football Weekly
• SB Nation
• Reddit
• Associated Press
• Football Outsiders
• Team Efficiency
• Team Rankings
• Sagarin
• BeatGraphs
• Aikman Efficiency
• Pro Football Reference
• Cold Hard Football Facts