2012 NFL Power Rankings Consensus: Week 16

It really feels like the NFL season just started, and yet there are only 2 more of these posts left after this week. Where has the season gone? For that matter, where has the entirety of 2012 gone? Good thing I've already begun writing "2013" on all my checks to get ahead of the game.

The news is out there: the Chargers aren't very good at all this year. They're consistently ranked in the bottom 25% of the league. It's taken me a while to realize they're that bad now, but these rankings lately have really convinced me. Time to blow everything up! Let's start at the top: FIRE SAPNOS!

I still remain unconvinced about the Colts, and I still contend the same thing that happened to the 2010 Chiefs as will happen to the Colts should they make the playoffs.

Division Averages

Division	Avg Ranking
NFC West	13.0278
NFC South	14.6111
NFC North	14.8056
NFC East	14.8889
AFC North	15.7917
AFC East	17.8056
AFC South	18.9722
AFC West	22.0972

Stock Rising

Team	Week 15 Average	Week 16 Average	Difference
CAR	21.477	16.851	4.626
NO	19.693	16.007	3.686
WAS	11.602	8.617	2.985
ARI	28.290	25.948	2.342
ATL	7.278	5.026	2.252

Stock Falling

Team	Week 15 Average	Week 16 Average	Difference
NYG	5.881	9.409	-3.528
TB	16.006	19.494	-3.488
DET	21.318	24.299	-2.981
SDG	22.250	24.753	-2.503
PIT	13.773	16.058	-2.285

Bummer to see the Chargers on this list but is anyone really surprised?

Subjective Average

	Subjective
Broncos	2	1	1	3	1	1	3	2	1	1	1		1.546		0.909
49ers	1	2	3	1	2	2	1	1	3	2	2		1.818		2.182
Falcons	5	4	2	4	6	3	5	5	2	3	4		3.909		1.273
Texans	3	5	5	2	5	4	2	4	4	4	5		3.909		-1.000
Patriots	4	3	4	5	3	5	4	3	5	5	3		4.000		-3.000
Packers	6	6	6	6	4	6	6	6	6	6	6		5.818		0.091
Seahawks	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7		7.000		1.818
Redskins	8	8	9	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8		8.091		3.364
Colts	9	11	12/td>	11	10	11	12	11	10	10	11		10.727		-1.000
Ravens	11	9	11	14	11	14	9	10	9	11	10		10.818		-2.272
Giants	12	15	10	12	9	13	10	9	11	9	9		10.818		-4.182
Cowboys	10	13	14	9	13	9	11	12	12	14	12		11.727		1.909
Bengals	13	10	8	10	15	10	13	13	13	13	13		11.909		2.818
Vikings	15	12	16	13	12	12	14	14	14	15	14		13.727		1.546
Bears	14	14	13	16	14	17	16	15	15	12	16		14.727		-2.454
Steelers	16	16	15	15	16	15	15	16	16	16	15		15.546		-2.000
Saints	18	17	23	17	17	18	17	17	17	17	17		17.727		1.909
Rams	17	18	18	19	18	19	19	20	20	19	18		18.636		-1.090
Dolphins	19	19	25	21	19	20	18	21	19	18	19		19.818		2.364
Buccaneers	20	21	17	20	20	24	20	19	22	20	20		20.273		-2.637
Panthers	23	20	19	18	21	16	21	22	21	21	21		20.273		4.182
Browns	22	22	24	24	22	22	26	23	18	22	23		22.546		-0.728
Jets	21	26	21	22	24	25	22	18	24	26	22		22.818		-1.636
Titans	26	24	20	23	23	21	23	29	25	27	25		24.182		2.909
Chargers	24	23	22	26	25	26	25	24	26	23	24		24.364		-2.364
Bills	25	29	26	25	27	23	24	25	23	25	26		25.273		-0.637
Cardinals	27	25	27	27	26	27	29	27	29	28	27		27.182		2.273
Lions	28	28	28	29	28	29	27	26	27	24	28		27.455		-2.819
Eagles	29	27	29	28	29	28	28	28	30	29	29		28.546		-1.455
Raiders	30	30	30	30	30	30	30	30	28	30	30		29.818		0.818
Jaguars	31	31	32	32	32	31	31	31	31	31	31		31.273		-0.182
Chiefs	32	32	31	31	31	32	32	32	32	32	32		31.727		-0.909

Observations:

• It happened to the 49ers, Texans and Falcons: the Patriots finally became the unanimous number-1 team and subsequently lose the following week. Don't worry New England fans, you're in good company.
• There is no unanimous pick as to who should inherit that throne. Though the Broncos are now the leading candidate.
• You'd think the team that beat he Patriots would take over their spot at the top of the rankings, but I guess the Broncos' current 9-game win streak trumps the 49ers victory.
• 13 teams currently have an average ranking of 12th or better. Yes, 13 teams in the top 12, heh.
• CBS is pretty down on the Saints and Dolphins, and high on the Bengals.

Subjective Standard Deviation

	Subjective
Seahawks	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7		0.000		-1.113
Redskins	8	8	9	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8		0.288		-1.017
Jaguars	31	31	32	32	32	31	31	31	31	31	31		0.445		-0.223
Chiefs	32	32	31	31	31	32	32	32	32	32	32		0.445		-0.584
Steelers	16	16	15	15	16	15	15	16	16	16	15		0.498		-0.659
Packers	6	6	6	6	4	6	6	6	6	6	6		0.575		-0.218
Raiders	30	30	30	30	30	30	30	30	28	30	30		0.575		-0.493
49ers	1	2	3	1	2	2	1	1	3	2	2		0.716		-0.023
Eagles	29	27	29	28	29	28	28	28	30	29	29		0.782		-0.011
Broncos	2	1	1	3	1	1	3	2	1	1	1		0.782		0.284
Patriots	4	3	4	5	3	5	4	3	5	5	3		0.853		0.853
Colts	9	11	12	11	10	11	12	11	10	10	11		0.862		0.245
Rams	17	18	18	19	18	19	19	20	20	19	18		0.881		0.225
Texans	3	5	5	2	5	4	2	4	4	4	5		1.083		0.087
Cardinals	27	25	27	27	26	27	29	27	29	28	27		1.113		0.222
Falcons	5	4	2	4	6	3	5	5	2	3	4		1.240		0.304
Vikings	15	12	16	13	12	12	14	14	14	15	14		1.286		0.234
Chargers	24	23	22	26	25	26	25	24	26	23	24		1.298		-0.050
Lions	28	28	28	29	28	29	27	26	27	24	28		1.373		-0.238
Bears	14	14	13	16	14	17	16	15	15	12	16		1.420		0.000
Buccaneers	20	21	17	20	20	24	20	19	22	20	20		1.656		0.885
Bills	25	29	26	25	27	23	24	25	23	25	26		1.656		-0.064
Ravens	11	9	11	14	11	14	9	10	9	11	10		1.696		1.040
Saints	18	17	23	17	17	18	17	17	17	17	17		1.710		0.484
Cowboys	10	13	14	9	13	9	11	12	12	14	12		1.710		0.484
Panthers	23	20	19	18	21	16	21	22	21	21	21		1.863		-0.154
Browns	22	22	24	24	22	22	26	23	18	22	23		1.876		-0.332
Dolphins	19	19	25	21	19	20	18	21	19	18	19		1.898		0.202
Giants	12	15	10	12	9	13	10	9	11	9	9		1.898		1.017
Bengals	13	10	8	10	15	10	13	13	13	13	13		1.975		0.923
Jets	21	26	21	22	24	25	22	18	24	26	22		2.328		-0.115
Titans	26	24	20	23	23	21	23	29	25	27	25		2.480		1.169

Observations:

• Oh neat, the Seahawks are a unanimous ... 7th.
• Redskins would have been a unanimous 8th, but CBS had to throw a wrench in it.
• Jaguars and Chiefs are bad again, Steelers consistently mediocre.
• Packers almost unanimous at #6, but this time it's SI messing it up.
• Though the Bears moved down ~2.5 spots, they did so in unison; their deviation is the same as last week.
• Both teams from New York are in the bottom 4 on this list.

Objective Average

	Objective
49ers	4	2	2	2	3	2	2		2.429		0.196
Broncos	3	1	1	3	9	4	1		3.143		0.732
Patriots	1	7	3	1	5	1	7		3.571		-0.821
Seahawks	2	3	6	5	4	3	3		3.714		0.411
Texans	10	5	4	4	7	8	4		6.000		-1.250
Falcons	12	6	7	6	1	5	6		6.143		3.232
Packers	5	9	5	7	6	9	5		6.571		1.179
Giants	8	10	9	8	2	6	13		8.000		-2.875
Redskins	9	8	8	10	10	10	9		9.143		2.607
Bears	6	17	13	9	8	7	8		9.714		-0.464
Bengals	7	12	14	13	18	13	12		12.714		0.661
Panthers	11	4	18	17	14	16	14		13.429		5.071
Ravens	13	21	17	11	11	11	11		13.571		-1.321
Saints	14	15	15	14	15	12	15		14.286		5.464
Cowboys	17	16	11	15	12	15	18		14.857		0.768
Steelers	15	13	21	19	20	18	10		16.571		-2.571
Rams	18	11	16	18	22	19	17		17.286		-1.536
Vikings	23	27	10	12	17	14	22		17.857		2.143
Buccaneers	21	20	22	16	16	17	19		18.714		-4.339
Dolphins	20	18	19	20	26	20	16		19.857		1.018
Lions	16	14	27	23	25	22	21		21.143		-3.143
Colts	26	25	12	21	13	26	28		21.571		0.304
Jets	25	19	20	22	21	24	24		22.143		-1.268
Browns	19	23	23	27	28	25	23		24.000		-2.250
Bills	22	22	26	26	23	27	26		24.571		-1.446
Cardinals	27	30	25	24	24	23	20		24.714		2.411
Chargers	24	24	28	25	29	21	25		25.143		-2.643
Titans	28	29	24	28	19	29	27		26.286		1.089
Eagles	29	26	29	29	27	28	29		28.143		-0.893
Raiders	30	28	30	30	30	30	30		29.714		0.536
Jaguars	31	32	31	31	31	31	31		31.143		-0.643
Chiefs	32	31	32	32	32	32	32		31.857		-0.357

Observations:

• Once again, the 49ers are atop this list even though not a single objective site ranks them as #1.
• Team Efficiency is keeping their position of extremely bullish on the Panthers. Though the other sites are starting to catch on as Carolina has risen an average of 5 spots this week.
• I'm surprised the Ravens didn't drop more, they looked pretty flat against Denver.
• 8 of the top 12 teams are in the NFC.
• 9 of the bottom 12 teams are in the AFC (10 of the bottom 13).

Objective Standard Deviation

	Objective
Jaguars	31	32	31	31	31	31	31		0.350		-0.516
Chiefs	32	31	32	32	32	32	32		0.350		-0.357
Raiders	30	28	30	30	30	30	30		0.700		-0.268
49ers	4	2	2	2	3	2	2		0.728		-0.129
Redskins	9	8	8	10	10	10	9		0.833		-1.213
Saints	14	15	15	14	15	12	15		1.030		-0.531
Eagles	29	26	29	29	27	28	29		1.125		-0.354
Seahawks	2	3	6	5	4	3	3		1.278		-0.258
Packers	5	9	5	7	6	9	5		1.678		-1.270
Bills	22	22	26	26	23	27	26		1.990		-1.699
Jets	25	19	20	22	21	24	24		2.100		-3.522
Texans	10	5	4	4	7	8	4		2.204		0.350
Buccaneers	21	20	22	16	16	17	19		2.250		-2.164
Cowboys	17	16	11	15	12	15	18		2.356		0.238
Chargers	24	24	28	25	29	21	25		2.474		-0.354
Patriots	1	7	3	1	5	1	7		2.556		0.278
Broncos	3	1	1	3	9	4	1		2.642		-0.024
Browns	19	23	23	27	28	25	23		2.778		-0.039
Dolphins	20	18	19	20	26	20	16		2.850		0.482
Cardinals	27	30	25	24	24	23	20		2.914		0.654
Falcons	12	6	7	6	1	5	6		2.997		0.821
Bengals	7	12	14	13	18	13	12		3.010		-0.488
Rams	18	11	16	18	22	19	17		3.104		-0.761
Giants	8	10	9	8	2	6	13		3.162		1.074
Titans	28	29	24	28	19	29	27		3.369		1.193
Bears	6	17	13	9	8	7	8		3.614		0.017
Ravens	13	21	17	11	11	11	11		3.659		-0.457
Steelers/a>	15	13	21	19	20	18	10		3.736		0.864
Lions	16	14	27	23	25	22	21		4.324		-0.896
Panthers	11	4	18	17	14	16	14		4.403		-3.423
Vikings	23	27	10	12	17	14	22		5.841		1.779
Colts	26	25	12	21	13	26	28		6.068		-0.648

Observations:

• Jaguars, Chiefs and Raiders: terrible across the board
• Colts still lacking consistency, though it's slightly better.
• Panthers' consistency is improving. Maybe Team Efficiency isn't so crazy in the end?
• Pretty good agreement that the Chargers aren't great.

Overall Average

	Subj vs Obj
49ers	1.818	2.429		2.123		1.190
Broncos	1.546	3.143		2.344		0.821
Patriots	4.000	3.571		3.786		-1.911
Texans	3.909	6.000		4.955		-1.125
Falcons	3.909	6.143		5.026		2.252
Seahawks	7.000	3.714		5.357		1.115
Packers	5.818	6.571		6.195		0.635
Redskins	8.091	9.143		8.617		2.985
Giants	10.818	8.000		9.409		-3.528
Ravens	10.818	13.571		12.195		-1.797
Bears	14.727	9.714		12.221		-1.460
Bengals	11.909	12.714		12.312		1.739
Cowboys	11.727	14.857		13.292		1.339
Vikings	13.727	17.857		15.792		1.844
Saints	17.727	14.286		16.007		3.686
Steelers	15.546	16.571		16.058		-2.285
Colts	10.727	21.571		16.149		-0.348
Panthers	20.273	13.429		16.851		4.626
Rams	18.636	17.286		17.961		-1.313
Buccaneers	20.273	18.714		19.494		-3.488
Dolphins	19.818	19.857		19.838		1.690
Jets	22.818	22.143		22.481		-1.453
Browns	22.546	24.000		23.273		-1.489
Lions	27.455	21.143		24.299		-2.981
Chargers	24.364	25.143		24.753		-2.503
Bills	25.273	24.571		24.922		-1.041
Titans	24.182	26.286		25.234		1.999
Cardinals	27.182	24.714		25.948		2.342
Eagles	28.546	28.143		28.344		-1.174
Raiders	29.818	29.714		29.766		0.677
Jaguars	31.273	31.143		31.208		-0.413
Chiefs	31.727	31.857		31.792		-0.633

Observations:

• 49ers still the top dog overall, though the Broncos are nipping at their heels.
• Texans beat the Colts and still drop overall, interesting.
• Redskins are surging quite nicely. The NFC East is a pretty fun race to watch this year.
• Panthers also surging.
• Giants were absolutely embarrassed this week, and their rankings reflect it appropriately.

Overall Standard Deviation

	Subj vs Obj
Chiefs	31.727	31.857		0.416		-0.552
Jaguars	31.273	31.143		0.416		-0.396
Raiders	29.818	29.714		0.629		-0.416
Redskins	8.091	9.143		0.764		-0.900
49ers	1.818	2.429		0.780		-0.262
Eagles	28.546	28.143		0.951		-0.185
Packers	5.818	6.571		1.197		-1.005
Patriots	4.000	3.571		1.740		0.028
Seahawks	7.000	3.714		1.789		-0.872
Bills	25.273	24.571		1.826		-1.002
Chargers	24.364	25.143		1.886		-0.231
Texans	3.909	6.000		1.909		0.221
Broncos	1.546	3.143		1.922		0.017
Buccaneers	20.273	18.714		2.055		-1.283
Rams	18.636	17.286		2.157		-0.549
Saints	17.727	14.286		2.240		0.861
Jets	22.818	22.143		2.266		-1.831
Dolphins	19.818	19.857		2.315		0.207
Cardinals	27.182	24.714		2.347		0.364
Falcons	3.909	6.143		2.370		-0.235
Browns	22.546	24.000		2.378		-0.105
Steelers	15.546	16.571		2.415		0.342
Bengals	11.909	12.714		2.462		-0.036
Cowboys	11.727	14.857		2.505		0.575
Giants	10.818	8.000		2.825		1.139
Ravens	10.818	13.571		2.961		-0.314
Titans	24.182	26.286		3.037		1.303
Bears	14.727	9.714		3.505		0.531
Lions	27.455	21.143		4.230		-0.640
Vikings	13.727	17.857		4.282		0.671
Panthers	20.273	13.429		4.560		-1.505
Colts	10.727	21.571		6.536		-0.893

Observations:

• Yep, the Redskins are consistently that good.
• 18 green arrows, 14 red arrows. Slowly becoming more consistent overall.
• Again, no surprise the Colts are at the bottom of this list again this week.

Difference in Averages

	Subj vs Obj
Colts	10.727	21.571		10.844		-1.304
Vikings	13.727	17.857		4.130		-0.597
Cowboys	11.727	14.857		3.130		1.141
Ravens	10.818	13.571		2.753		-0.952
Falcons	3.909	6.143		2.234		-1.959
Titans	24.182	26.286		2.104		1.820
Texans	3.909	6.000		2.091		0.250
Broncos	1.546	3.143		1.597		0.176
Browns	22.546	24.000		1.455		1.523
Redskins	8.091	9.143		1.052		0.756
Steelers	15.546	16.571		1.026		0.571
Bengals	11.909	12.714		0.805		2.157
Chargers	24.364	25.143		0.779		0.279
Packers	5.818	6.571		0.753		-1.088
49ers	1.818	2.429		0.610		1.985
Chiefs	31.727	31.857		0.130		-0.552
Dolphins	19.818	19.857		0.039		1.346
Raiders	29.818	29.714		-0.104		0.282
Jaguars	31.273	31.143		-0.130		0.461
Eagles	28.546	28.143		-0.403		-0.562
Patriots	4.000	3.571		-0.429		-2.179
Jets	22.818	22.143		-0.675		-0.368
Bills	25.273	24.571		-0.701		0.810
Rams	18.636	17.286		-1.351		0.445
Buccaneers	20.273	18.714		-1.558		1.703
Cardinals	27.182	24.714		-2.468		-0.138
Giants	10.818	8.000		-2.818		-1.307
Seahawks	7.000	3.714		-3.286		1.407
Saints	17.727	14.286		-3.442		-3.556
Bears	14.727	9.714		-5.013		-1.990
Lions	27.455	21.143		-6.312		0.324
Panthers	20.273	13.429		-6.844		-0.889

Observations:

• Colts still grossly overrated. Though it got slightly better this week (10.7% improvement).
• Holy cow. All of the 9 most under-ranked teams are in the NFC. Is this on purpose?
• Even though it was unanimous on the subjective side, the Seahawks at #7 are about 50% under-ranked.
• Panthers are being slept on now.

Sources

• ESPN
• Fox
• CBS
• USA Today
• Sports Illustrated
• ProFootballTalk
• NFL.com
• Pro Football Weekly
• SB Nation
• Reddit
• Associated Press
• Football Outsiders
• Team Efficiency
• Team Rankings
• Sagarin
• BeatGraphs
• Pro Football Reference
• Cold Hard Football Facts