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When San Diego Has the Ball
Denver's defense is elite, most especially against the pass. The Chargers smallest disadvantage is in the running game. We should expect to see that Tampa Bay game 35/65 run/pass balance flipped against Denver (doubtful right?). Denver is really good against WRs in the passing game, and weakest against TEs and RBs. Hopefully Antonio Gates can snap out of his funk, and Ryan Mathews can get established early.
| Den Defense | DVOA | Rank | Yards/Game | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Run | -15.9% | #10 | 98 | #10 |
| Pass | -16.1% | #4 | 218 | #11 |
| Overall | -16.0% | #4 | 317 | #6 |
| SD Offense | DVOA | Rank | Yards/Game | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Run | -12.0% | #23 | 106 | #18 |
| Pass | 6.8% | #20 | 229 | #16 |
| Overall | -7.2% | #22 | 335 | #22 |
| Den DVOA | vs Skill Players | in Passing Game |
|---|---|---|
| WR1 | -5.3% | #10 |
| WR2 | -14.0% | #8 |
| Other WR | -41.2% | #2 |
| TE | 1.4% | #18 |
| RB | -8.5% | #12 |
When Denver Has the Ball
The San Diego rush defense is above average against the run statistically, and a bottom feeder at pass defense. Denver is a bottom feeder rushing team and elite passing the ball. This is an amazing flip for Denver from 2011 where they were such a strong running team. In the passing game, San Diego covers tight ends decently, but gets murdered by WR1's and Running Backs.
| SD Defense | DVOA | Rank | Yards/Game | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Run | 16.0% | #9 | 93 | #2 |
| Pass | 17.7% | #26 | 234 | #18 |
| Overall | 4.0% | #21 | 317 | #7 |
| Den Offense | DVOA | Rank | Yards/Game | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Run | -15.0% | #26 | 102 | #21 |
| Pass | 52.5% | #2 | 293 | #3 |
| Overall | 19.2% | #3 | 395 | #3 |
| SD DVOA | vs Skill Players | in Passing Game |
|---|---|---|
| WR1 | 25.9% | #27 |
| WR2 | -5.0% | #14 |
| Other WR | -2.9% | #13 |
| TE | -13.9% | #8 |
| RB | 15.4% | #25 |
Putting it Together:
Chargers Running vs Denver Run Def: San Diego has a 13 DVOA rank 'deficit'
Chargers Passing vs Denver Pass Def: San Diego has a 16 DVOA rank 'deficit'
Denver Running vs San Diego Run Def: San Diego has a 15 DVOA rank 'advantage'
Denver Passing vs San Diego Pass Def: San Diego has a 24 DVOA rank 'deficit'
That puts San Diego at a cumulative 38 ranking spots behind in those 4 categories. It's certainly a limited, statistical view of things. But it demonstrates just how bad the outlook for today really is.
Norv Turner Predictability Drinking Game*
- A run up the middle on the first play of the game - 1 sip of beer
- Concession run on 3rd and long - 2 sips of beer
- Shotgun 4 wide passing plays on 3rd and short - 2 sips of beer
- Using Jackie Battle. Ever. - 1 sip of beer
- A fullback dive on 3rd and 1 - 1 shot
- A series where Turner completely abandons either run or pass - 1 shot
- A convincing, fully executed play fake in a running situation that causes a linebacker to bite - 1 shot
- Ryan Mathews disappears - 2 shots
- A wildcat play where Rivers looks bored and the defense ignores him, nullifying the man-on-man advantage the wildcat is supposed to create - 1 shot
- When a halftime two minute drill looks awesome - 1 sip of beer
- When a 4th quarter game winning/tying two minute drill fizzles just outside field goal rang - 3 shots
- Any fraidy cat, mincing, playing-not-to-lose 4th down decision - 1 shot
Please give us more reasons to imbibe to get the comments going!
* Please do not actually play this game as Norv Turner is likely to get you hospitalized, or worse.
Keep in mind that for defense DVOA, negative is good, while negative is bad for offense DVOA. All VOA, DVOA, YAR and DYAR statistical values are developed, calculated and reported by Football Outsiders. Their explanation can be found here.