2012 NFL Power Rankings Consensus: Week 11

We'll start off with some bad news about the Chargers: they've dropped an average of exactly 3 spots this week in the subjective rankings. Now the good news: the Chargers actually rose in the objective rankings this week. Seriously though, the Chargers rose in all but 1 of the objective rankings this week. That's some good news, right?

There's not much optimism to go around for the Chargers this season it seems. Nearly everyone is predicting a blood-bath in Denver on Sunday, and I can't say I blame them. The Chargers have the uncanny inability to finish games this year. It happened in New Orleans, it happened against Denver, and it happened again this week in Tampa Bay. Good teams finish games, and the Chargers just aren't playing like a good team; and the rankings reflect it.

Division Averages

Division	Avg Ranking
NFC North	10.2500
NFC South	14.1184
NFC West	14.4474
AFC North	15.8947
NFC East	17.9474
AFC South	18.1447
AFC East	19.6711
AFC West	21.5263

The NFC's complete dominance over the AFC only lasted one week. With the AFC North gaining this week, and the NFC East losing, the NFC has slipped slightly.

Stock Rising

Team	Week 10 Average	Week 11 Average	Difference
NO	20.386	15.881	4.505
CIN	22.744	18.330	4.414
TEN	28.074	24.165	3.909
BAL	10.483	7.494	2.989
DEN	7.091	5.028	2.063

Knock off the one remaining undefeated team and you'll be rewarded handsomely in the rankings. Dominate the Giants, you'll be rewarded as well.

Stock Falling

Team	Week 10 Average	Week 11 Average	Difference
MIA	14.568	19.869	-5.301
NYG	7.023	10.972	-3.949
NYJ	21.852	25.534	-3.682
PHI	21.847	24.540	-2.693
CAR	20.716	23.403	-2.687

Suffer a horrible loss at the hands of a bottom-third team? That's a paddlin'.

Subjective Average

	Subjective
Texans	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1		1.000		1.273
Falcons	2	3	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2		2.091		-1.091
Bears	3	4	3	7	4	6	6	3	3	3	3		4.091		-1.091
49ers	4	8	4	3	5	4	3	5	8	4	4		4.727		-0.909
Packers	6	6	5	4	3	5	4	4	7	5	6		5.000		0.273
Broncos	7	2	8	5	6	8	5	8	6	8	5		6.182		2.000
Ravens	5	7	7	8	8	3	7	7	5	6	7		6.364		2.727
Patriots	8	9	6	9	7	7	8	6	9	7	8		7.636		-0.454
Steelers	9	5	9	6	9	9	9	9	4	10	9		8.000		0.636
Giants	10	14	12	11	10	11	10	11	11	9	10		10.818		-4.272
Seahawks	12	11	11	10	12	12	11	10	13	11	11		11.273		0.363
Colts	11	12	10	12	11	10	12	12	10	13	12		11.364		0.545
Buccaneers	13	10	13	13	13	14	15	14	14	14	13		13.273		1.363
Vikings	14	15	15	15	14	13	13	13	15	12	15		14.000		1.364
Saints	16	13	14	14	15	15	16	16	12	16	14		14.636		4.637
Cowboys	15	16	16	17	16	21	14	15	18	15	16		16.273		2.273
Bengals	19	17	18	16	19	16	17	19	22	17	17		17.909		3.455
Lions	17	18	20	19	17	17	19	17	17	18	18		17.909		-3.454
Dolphins	18	19	17	23	18	22	18	18	21	19	20		19.364		-4.728
Chargers	20	28	19	18	21	19	20	20	16	22	19		20.182		-3.000
Cardinals	22	21	23	22	23	23	22	21	23	20	21		21.909		-1.091
Rams	23	24	21	21	20	18	24	22	26	23	25		22.455		2.000
Redskins	21	20	26	27	25	24	21	24	20	21	22		22.818		-0.636
Eagles	24	22	22	25	24	27	23	23	19	25	24		23.455		-2.637
Titans	25	25	24	20	22	20	25	26	24	24	23		23.455		4.818
Bills	27	23	28	24	26	26	27	27	25	26	27		26.000		1.636
Jets	26	27	27	29	27	28	26	25	27	27	26		26.818		-2.363
Panthers	29	30	25	28	30	25	29	29	29	28	28		28.182		-2.000
Raiders	28	29	29	26	29	29	28	28	28	29	30		28.455		-1.455
Browns	30	26	30	30	28	30	30	30	30	30	29		29.364		-0.182
Chiefs	32	32	31	31	31	32	32	32	31	31	31		31.455		0.545
Jaguars	31	31	32	32	32	31	31	31	32	32	32		31.546		-0.546

Observations:

• The Falcons lost their first game! Naturally that means they're no longer the top team. The Texans are the unanimous heir to the Falcons throne atop the subjective rankings.
• Last week, Brian Billick (Fox) had the Chargers ranked 26th; I scratched my head at that ranking. This week he has them 28th. Now I'm audibly proclaiming, "REALLY!?" I guess at least this week he has the Chargers above the Raiders.
• That means in Billick's eyes, 3 of the 5 worst teams in the NFL come out of the AFC West.
• Oh look! The Chiefs finally get a lead in a game and they're no longer the worst team in the NFL!
• The top 10 teams are an even 5-5 split between AFC and NFC.

Subjective Standard Deviation

	Subjective
Texans	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1		0.000		-0.617
Falcons	2	3	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2		0.288		0.288
Chiefs	32	32	31	31	31	32	32	32	31	31	31		0.498		0.498
Jaguars	31	31	32	32	32	31	31	31	32	32	32		0.498		0.498
Seahawks	12	11	11	10	12	12	11	10	13	11	11		0.862		0.219
Colts	11	12	10	12	11	10	12	12	10	13	12		0.979		-0.017
Raiders	28	29	29	26	29	29	28	28	28	29	30		0.988		-0.057
Cardinals	22	21	23	22	23	23	22	21	23	20	21		0.996		-0.196
Lions	17	18	20	19	17	17	19	17	17	18	18		0.996		-0.729
Jets	26	27	27	29	27	28	26	25	27	27	26		1.029		-0.530
Vikings	14	15	15	15	14	13	13	13	15	12	15		1.045		-0.875
Patriots	8	9	6	9	7	7	8	6	9	7	8		1.068		0.039
Packers	6	6	5	4	3	5	4	4	7	5	6		1.128		0.378
Buccaneers	13	10	13	13	13	14	15	14	14	14	13		1.213		-0.453
Browns	30	26	30	30	28	30	30	30	30	30	29		1.226		-0.523
Giants	10	14	12	11	10	11	10	11	11	9	10		1.266		-0.039
Saints	16	13	14	14	15	15	16	16	12	16	14		1.298		-1.041
Bills	27	23	28	24	26	26	27	27	25	26	27		1.414		0.264
Ravens	5	7	7	8	8	3	7	7	5	6	7		1.432		0.268
Bears	3	4	3	7	4	6	6	3	3	3	3		1.443		1.017
Panthers	29	30	25	28	30	25	29	29	29	28	28		1.641		-0.305
49ers	4	8	4	3	5	4	3	5	8	4	4		1.656		0.940
Bengals	19	17	18	16	19	16	17	19	22	17	17		1.676		-0.096
Broncos	7	2	8	5	6	8	5	8	6	8	5		1.800		1.084
Cowboys	15	16	16	17	16	21	14	15	18	15	16		1.814		-0.334
Dolphins	18	19	17	23	18	22	18	18	21	19	20		1.823		-0.234
Steelers	9	5	9	6	9	9	9	9	4	10	9		1.907		0.296
Titans	25	25	24	20	22	20	25	26	24	24	23		1.924		0.110
Eagles	24	22	22	25	24	27	23	23	19	25	24		1.971		0.171
Rams	23	24	21	21	20	18	24	22	26	23	25		2.231		-0.305
Redskins	21	20	26	27	25	24	21	24	20	21	22		2.367		0.200
Chargers	20	28	19	18	21	19	20	20	16	22	19		2.886		-0.154

Observations:

• Texans a unanimous choice for number 1.
• Falcons would have been unanimous if it weren't for Brian Billick picking the Broncos at #2 instead. I'm sensing a trend here ...
• Chargers are the most inconsistent team in the NFL. But that's pretty much thanks to Billick. Take out his ranking, and the Chargers' Standard Deviation drops to 1.647; in line with the Panthers and 49ers.
• Overall though, rankings are becoming rather consistent overall.

Objective Average

	Objective
Texans	7	2	1	1	3	1	1	1		2.125		0.875
Broncos	1	1	3	2	8	11	3	2		3.875		2.125
Bears	4	8	2	3	7	3	2	6		4.375		-0.125
49ers	6	3	8	5	1	4	5	3		4.375		-1.875
Packers	5	6	4	6	2	8	6	4		5.125		0.500
Patriots	2	15	5	4	6	2	4	11		6.125		0.000
Falcons	12	7	7	7	4	7	8	5		7.125		-1.625
Seahawks	3	4	9	8	10	13	7	7		7.625		1.000
Ravens	8	17	6	10	5	5	10	8		8.625		3.250
Giants	9	9	15	9	16	10	9	12		11.125		-3.625
Buccaneers	13	13	13	11	13	6	11	10		11.250		0.875
Steelers	11	16	10	13	11	9	14	9		11.625		-0.625
Cowboys	10	10	16	12	12	16	12	14		12.750		0.625
Lions	14	11	18	17	18	12	15	20		15.625		-0.500
Vikings	15	22	14	14	15	15	13	19		15.875		2.125
Saints	17	24	12	15	26	14	16	13		17.125		4.375
Panthers	19	5	22	20	21	20	18	24		18.625		-3.375
Bengals	16	14	20	21	19	23	22	15		18.750		5.375
Rams	18	12	19	16	24	27	19	22		19.625		2.000
Redskins	20	18	26	19	25	18	17	18		20.125		0.000
Dolphins	21	19	21	23	17	17	24	21		20.375		-5.875
Chargers	23	21	27	18	27	19	20	17		21.500		1.625
Colts	27	27	11	24	9	25	25	25		21.625		1.375
Cardinals	24	28	25	22	23	22	21	16		22.625		-1.750
Jets	25	23	23	25	20	28	23	27		24.250		-5.000
Titans	29	30	17	27	14	24	29	29		24.875		3.000
Eagles	26	20	30	29	29	21	27	23		25.625		-2.750
Bills	22	29	24	26	22	32	28	28		26.375		0.625
Browns	28	26	28	28	30	26	26	26		27.250		-0.125
Raiders	30	25	29	30	28	30	30	30		29.000		-2.125
Jaguars	32	32	31	32	31	29	31	31		31.125		-0.750
Chiefs	31	31	32	31	32	31	32	32		31.500		0.375

Observations:

• See? I wasn't lying, the Chargers rose in the objective rankings. It just means they did something right this week ... just not enough.
• For weeks now, the Texans have been atop the Objective rankings. Glad to see the Subjective rankers finally got the memo once the Falcons lost. I've harped on it before, you just can't go by raw record. It's always said each year that Team A is better than their record indicates, why is the inverse less common?
• Wow, the Broncos aren't far behind either. 4 of the 8 objective sites rank the Broncos 2nd or 1st. *gulp*

Objective Standard Deviation

	Objective
Chiefs	31	31	32	31	32	31	32	32		0.500		0.169
Jaguars	32	32	31	32	31	29	31	31		0.927		0.231
Browns	28	26	28	28	30	26	26	26		1.392		-0.696
Raiders	30	25	29	30	28	30	30	30		1.658		-0.814
Packers	5	6	4	6	2	8	6	4		1.691		-0.651
Texans	7	2	1	1	3	1	1	1		1.965		-0.214
49ers	6	3	8	5	1	4	5	3		1.996		0.673
Bears	4	8	2	3	7	3	2	6		2.176		-1.206
Falcons	12	7	7	7	4	7	8	5		2.204		0.025
Cowboys	10	10	16	12	12	16	12	14		2.222		-2.019
Buccaneers	13	13	13	11	13	6	11	10		2.278		-0.979
Steelers	11	16	10	13	11	9	14	9		2.342		0.610
Jets	25	23	23	25	20	28	23	27		2.385		-0.249
Dolphins	21	19	21	23	17	17	24	21		2.395		-0.521
Giants	9	9	15	9	16	10	9	12		2.713		1.847
Vikings	15	22	14	14	15	15	13	19		2.848		0.064
Lions	14	11	18	17	18	12	15	20		2.955		-0.666
Seahawks	3	4	9	8	10	13	7	7		2.997		0.307
Bengals	16	14	20	21	19	23	22	15		3.152		0.533
Redskins	20	18	26	19	25	18	17	18		3.219		-0.114
Cardinals	24	28	25	22	23	22	21	16		3.238		0.098
Bills	22	29	24	26	22	32	28	28		3.314		-0.958
Broncos	1	1	3	2	8	11	3	2		3.407		0.128
Eagles	26	20	30	29	29	21	27	23		3.603		0.052
Chargers	23	21	27	18	27	19	20	17		3.606		0.506
Ravens	8	17	6	10	5	5	10	8		3.672		-1.109
Patriots	2	15	5	4	6	2	4	11		4.285		0.664
Rams	18	12	19	16	24	27	19	22		4.386		0.714
Saints	17	24	12	15	26	14	16	13		4.807		0.391
Panthers	19	5	22	20	21	20	18	24		5.430		0.882
Titans	29	30	17	27	14	24	29	29		5.732		1.361
Colts	27	27	11	24	9	25	25	25		6.800		0.377

Observations:

• Amusing that the 4 most consistently-ranked teams are at the bottom of the rankings, and all 4 are AFC teams.
• Some of the objective rankings can be a bit quicker to react to a team's recent successes, as evidenced by the Colts and Titans rankings.

Overall Average

	Subj vs Obj
Texans	1.000	2.125		1.563		1.073
Bears	4.091	4.375		4.233		-0.608
49ers	4.727	4.375		4.551		-1.392
Falcons	2.091	7.125		4.608		-1.358
Broncos	6.182	3.875		5.028		2.063
Packers	5.000	5.125		5.063		0.386
Patriots	7.636	6.125		6.881		-0.228
Ravens	6.364	8.625		7.494		2.989
Seahawks	11.273	7.625		9.449		0.682
Steelers	8.000	11.625		9.813		0.005
Giants	10.818	11.125		10.972		-3.949
Buccaneers	13.273	11.250		12.261		1.120
Cowboys	16.273	12.750		14.511		1.449
Vikings	14.000	15.875		14.938		1.744
Saints	14.636	17.125		15.881		4.505
Colts	11.364	21.625		16.494		0.961
Lions	17.909	15.625		16.767		-1.977
Bengals	17.909	18.750		18.330		4.414
Dolphins	19.364	20.375		19.869		-5.301
Chargers	20.182	21.500		20.841		-0.688
Rams	22.455	19.625		21.040		2.000
Redskins	22.818	20.125		21.472		-0.319
Cardinals	21.909	22.625		22.267		-1.420
Panthers	28.182	18.625		23.403		-2.687
Titans	23.455	24.875		24.165		3.909
Eagles	23.455	25.625		24.540		-2.693
Jets	26.818	24.250		25.534		-3.682
Bills	26.000	26.375		26.188		1.130
Browns	29.364	27.250		28.307		-0.154
Raiders	28.455	29.000		28.727		-1.789
Jaguars	31.546	31.125		31.335		-0.647
Chiefs	31.455	31.500		31.477		0.461

Observations:

• Texans are on top, by a lot.
• Broncos drop a bit, but are still top 5 and rose over 2 spots this week.
• Clusters of teams are a bit less defined this week. Kind of a smooth gradient throughout the rankings.

Overall Standard Deviation

	Subj vs Obj
Chiefs	31.455	31.500		0.499		0.276
Jaguars	31.546	31.125		0.741		0.194
Raiders	28.455	29.000		1.340		-0.451
Texans	1.000	2.125		1.391		-0.142
Packers	5.000	5.125		1.395		-0.237
Browns	29.364	27.250		1.666		-0.487
Bears	4.091	4.375		1.794		-0.509
49ers	4.727	4.375		1.816		0.609
Buccaneers	13.273	11.250		2.008		-0.751
Giants	10.818	11.125		2.012		0.778
Dolphins	19.364	20.375		2.142		-0.314
Jets	26.818	24.250		2.148		-1.158
Vikings	14.000	15.875		2.214		-0.449
Cardinals	21.909	22.625		2.261		0.030
Lions	17.909	15.625		2.350		-0.361
Bills	26.000	26.375		2.412		-0.512
Bengals	17.909	18.750		2.446		-0.116
Cowboys	16.273	12.750		2.647		-1.447
Seahawks	11.273	7.625		2.731		0.387
Steelers	8.000	11.625		2.760		0.728
Broncos	6.182	3.875		2.839		0.393
Ravens	6.364	8.625		2.848		-0.659
Falcons	2.091	7.125		2.876		0.242
Eagles	23.455	25.625		2.977		0.111
Patriots	7.636	6.125		2.991		0.460
Redskins	22.818	20.125		3.062		0.159
Chargers	20.182	21.500		3.274		-0.969
Saints	14.636	17.125		3.495		-0.053
Rams	22.455	19.625		3.596		0.227
Titans	23.455	24.875		4.058		0.897
Panthers	28.182	18.625		6.020		-0.307
Colts	11.364	21.625		6.759		-0.164

Observations:

• Chiefs, Jaguars, Raiders and Browns: consistently terrible.
• Texans, Packers, Bears and 49ers: consistently good.
• It's never fun to lose, but at least the Chargers lost to a team that has turned into a consensus top-12 team. Right, guys?

Difference in Averages

	Subj vs Obj
Colts	11.364	21.625		10.261		-0.830
Falcons	2.091	7.125		5.034		0.534
Steelers	8.000	11.625		3.625		1.261
Saints	14.636	17.125		2.489		0.262
Ravens	6.364	8.625		2.261		-0.523
Eagles	23.455	25.625		2.171		0.114
Vikings	14.000	15.875		1.875		-0.761
Titans	23.455	24.875		1.421		1.819
Chargers	20.182	21.500		1.318		-4.625
Texans	1.000	2.125		1.125		0.398
Dolphins	19.364	20.375		1.011		1.147
Bengals	17.909	18.750		0.841		-1.920
Cardinals	21.909	22.625		0.716		0.659
Raiders	28.455	29.000		0.546		0.671
Bills	26.000	26.375		0.375		1.011
Giants	10.818	11.125		0.307		-0.648
Bears	4.091	4.375		0.284		-0.966
Packers	5.000	5.125		0.125		-0.227
Chiefs	31.455	31.500		0.046		0.171
49ers	4.727	4.375		-0.352		0.966
Jaguars	31.546	31.125		-0.421		0.204
Patriots	7.636	6.125		-1.511		-0.454
Buccaneers	13.273	11.250		-2.023		0.488
Browns	29.364	27.250		-2.114		-0.057
Lions	17.909	15.625		-2.284		-2.955
Broncos	6.182	3.875		-2.307		-0.125
Jets	26.818	24.250		-2.568		2.637
Redskins	22.818	20.125		-2.693		-0.636
Rams	22.455	19.625		-2.830		0.000
Cowboys	16.273	12.750		-3.523		1.648
Seahawks	11.273	7.625		-3.648		-0.637
Panthers	28.182	18.625		-9.557		1.375

Observations:

• Colts are still grossly over-ranked. If only they'd stop winning ...
• Even though they dropped in the subjective rankings, the Falcons are still rather over-ranked.
• It amuses me slightly that the Eagles are still slightly over-rated.
• The Panthers are still grossly over-ranked. Sure, they got blown-out by the Broncos, but they're still better than 4th-worst.

Sources

• ESPN
• Fox
• CBS
• USA Today
• Sports Illustrated
• ProFootballTalk
• NFL.com
• Pro Football Weekly
• SB Nation
• Reddit
• Associated Press
• Football Outsiders
• Team Efficiency
• Team Rankings
• Sagarin
• BeatGraphs
• Aikman Efficiency
• Pro Football Reference
• Cold Hard Football Facts