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2012 NFL Power Rankings Consensus: Week 11

The Chargers actually rose in some rankings this week? How is that possible?

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One of this week's biggest losers
One of this week's biggest losers
Andy Lyons

We'll start off with some bad news about the Chargers: they've dropped an average of exactly 3 spots this week in the subjective rankings. Now the good news: the Chargers actually rose in the objective rankings this week. Seriously though, the Chargers rose in all but 1 of the objective rankings this week. That's some good news, right?

There's not much optimism to go around for the Chargers this season it seems. Nearly everyone is predicting a blood-bath in Denver on Sunday, and I can't say I blame them. The Chargers have the uncanny inability to finish games this year. It happened in New Orleans, it happened against Denver, and it happened again this week in Tampa Bay. Good teams finish games, and the Chargers just aren't playing like a good team; and the rankings reflect it.

Division Averages

Division Avg Ranking
NFC North 10.2500
NFC South 14.1184
NFC West 14.4474
AFC North 15.8947
NFC East 17.9474
AFC South 18.1447
AFC East 19.6711
AFC West 21.5263

The NFC's complete dominance over the AFC only lasted one week. With the AFC North gaining this week, and the NFC East losing, the NFC has slipped slightly.

Stock Rising

Team Week 10 Average Week 11 Average Difference
NO 20.386 15.881 4.505
CIN 22.744 18.330 4.414
TEN 28.074 24.165 3.909
BAL 10.483 7.494 2.989
DEN 7.091 5.028 2.063

Knock off the one remaining undefeated team and you'll be rewarded handsomely in the rankings. Dominate the Giants, you'll be rewarded as well.

Stock Falling

Team Week 10 Average Week 11 Average Difference
MIA 14.568 19.869 -5.301
NYG 7.023 10.972 -3.949
NYJ 21.852 25.534 -3.682
PHI 21.847 24.540 -2.693
CAR 20.716 23.403 -2.687

Suffer a horrible loss at the hands of a bottom-third team? That's a paddlin'.

Subjective Average

Subjective
ESPN Fox CBS USA Today Sports Illustrated ProFootballTalk NFL.com Pro Football Weekly SB Nation Reddit Associated Press Average Change since last period
Texans 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1.000 1.273 Rising
Falcons 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2.091 -1.091 Falling
Bears 3 4 3 7 4 6 6 3 3 3 3 4.091 -1.091 Falling
49ers 4 8 4 3 5 4 3 5 8 4 4 4.727 -0.909 Falling
Packers 6 6 5 4 3 5 4 4 7 5 6 5.000 0.273 Rising
Broncos 7 2 8 5 6 8 5 8 6 8 5 6.182 2.000 Rising
Ravens 5 7 7 8 8 3 7 7 5 6 7 6.364 2.727 Rising
Patriots 8 9 6 9 7 7 8 6 9 7 8 7.636 -0.454 Falling
Steelers 9 5 9 6 9 9 9 9 4 10 9 8.000 0.636 Rising
Giants 10 14 12 11 10 11 10 11 11 9 10 10.818 -4.272 Falling
Seahawks 12 11 11 10 12 12 11 10 13 11 11 11.273 0.363 Rising
Colts 11 12 10 12 11 10 12 12 10 13 12 11.364 0.545 Rising
Buccaneers 13 10 13 13 13 14 15 14 14 14 13 13.273 1.363 Rising
Vikings 14 15 15 15 14 13 13 13 15 12 15 14.000 1.364 Rising
Saints 16 13 14 14 15 15 16 16 12 16 14 14.636 4.637 Rising
Cowboys 15 16 16 17 16 21 14 15 18 15 16 16.273 2.273 Rising
Bengals 19 17 18 16 19 16 17 19 22 17 17 17.909 3.455 Rising
Lions 17 18 20 19 17 17 19 17 17 18 18 17.909 -3.454 Falling
Dolphins 18 19 17 23 18 22 18 18 21 19 20 19.364 -4.728 Falling
Chargers 20 28 19 18 21 19 20 20 16 22 19 20.182 -3.000 Falling
Cardinals 22 21 23 22 23 23 22 21 23 20 21 21.909 -1.091 Falling
Rams 23 24 21 21 20 18 24 22 26 23 25 22.455 2.000 Rising
Redskins 21 20 26 27 25 24 21 24 20 21 22 22.818 -0.636 Falling
Eagles 24 22 22 25 24 27 23 23 19 25 24 23.455 -2.637 Falling
Titans 25 25 24 20 22 20 25 26 24 24 23 23.455 4.818 Rising
Bills 27 23 28 24 26 26 27 27 25 26 27 26.000 1.636 Rising
Jets 26 27 27 29 27 28 26 25 27 27 26 26.818 -2.363 Falling
Panthers 29 30 25 28 30 25 29 29 29 28 28 28.182 -2.000 Falling
Raiders 28 29 29 26 29 29 28 28 28 29 30 28.455 -1.455 Falling
Browns 30 26 30 30 28 30 30 30 30 30 29 29.364 -0.182 Falling
Chiefs 32 32 31 31 31 32 32 32 31 31 31 31.455 0.545 Rising
Jaguars 31 31 32 32 32 31 31 31 32 32 32 31.546 -0.546 Falling

Observations:

  • The Falcons lost their first game! Naturally that means they're no longer the top team. The Texans are the unanimous heir to the Falcons throne atop the subjective rankings.
  • Last week, Brian Billick (Fox) had the Chargers ranked 26th; I scratched my head at that ranking. This week he has them 28th. Now I'm audibly proclaiming, "REALLY!?" I guess at least this week he has the Chargers above the Raiders.
  • That means in Billick's eyes, 3 of the 5 worst teams in the NFL come out of the AFC West.
  • Oh look! The Chiefs finally get a lead in a game and they're no longer the worst team in the NFL!
  • The top 10 teams are an even 5-5 split between AFC and NFC.

Subjective Standard Deviation

Subjective
ESPN Fox CBS USA Today Sports Illustrated ProFootballTalk NFL.com Pro Football Weekly SB Nation Reddit Associated Press Standard Deviation Change since last period
Texans 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0.000 -0.617 Falling
Falcons 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0.288 0.288 Rising
Chiefs 32 32 31 31 31 32 32 32 31 31 31 0.498 0.498 Rising
Jaguars 31 31 32 32 32 31 31 31 32 32 32 0.498 0.498 Rising
Seahawks 12 11 11 10 12 12 11 10 13 11 11 0.862 0.219 Rising
Colts 11 12 10 12 11 10 12 12 10 13 12 0.979 -0.017 Falling
Raiders 28 29 29 26 29 29 28 28 28 29 30 0.988 -0.057 Falling
Cardinals 22 21 23 22 23 23 22 21 23 20 21 0.996 -0.196 Falling
Lions 17 18 20 19 17 17 19 17 17 18 18 0.996 -0.729 Falling
Jets 26 27 27 29 27 28 26 25 27 27 26 1.029 -0.530 Falling
Vikings 14 15 15 15 14 13 13 13 15 12 15 1.045 -0.875 Falling
Patriots 8 9 6 9 7 7 8 6 9 7 8 1.068 0.039 Rising
Packers 6 6 5 4 3 5 4 4 7 5 6 1.128 0.378 Rising
Buccaneers 13 10 13 13 13 14 15 14 14 14 13 1.213 -0.453 Falling
Browns 30 26 30 30 28 30 30 30 30 30 29 1.226 -0.523 Falling
Giants 10 14 12 11 10 11 10 11 11 9 10 1.266 -0.039 Falling
Saints 16 13 14 14 15 15 16 16 12 16 14 1.298 -1.041 Falling
Bills 27 23 28 24 26 26 27 27 25 26 27 1.414 0.264 Rising
Ravens 5 7 7 8 8 3 7 7 5 6 7 1.432 0.268 Rising
Bears 3 4 3 7 4 6 6 3 3 3 3 1.443 1.017 Rising
Panthers 29 30 25 28 30 25 29 29 29 28 28 1.641 -0.305 Falling
49ers 4 8 4 3 5 4 3 5 8 4 4 1.656 0.940 Rising
Bengals 19 17 18 16 19 16 17 19 22 17 17 1.676 -0.096 Falling
Broncos 7 2 8 5 6 8 5 8 6 8 5 1.800 1.084 Rising
Cowboys 15 16 16 17 16 21 14 15 18 15 16 1.814 -0.334 Falling
Dolphins 18 19 17 23 18 22 18 18 21 19 20 1.823 -0.234 Falling
Steelers 9 5 9 6 9 9 9 9 4 10 9 1.907 0.296 Rising
Titans 25 25 24 20 22 20 25 26 24 24 23 1.924 0.110 Rising
Eagles 24 22 22 25 24 27 23 23 19 25 24 1.971 0.171 Rising
Rams 23 24 21 21 20 18 24 22 26 23 25 2.231 -0.305 Falling
Redskins 21 20 26 27 25 24 21 24 20 21 22 2.367 0.200 Rising
Chargers 20 28 19 18 21 19 20 20 16 22 19 2.886 -0.154 Falling

Observations:

  • Texans a unanimous choice for number 1.
  • Falcons would have been unanimous if it weren't for Brian Billick picking the Broncos at #2 instead. I'm sensing a trend here ...
  • Chargers are the most inconsistent team in the NFL. But that's pretty much thanks to Billick. Take out his ranking, and the Chargers' Standard Deviation drops to 1.647; in line with the Panthers and 49ers.
  • Overall though, rankings are becoming rather consistent overall.

Objective Average

Objective
Football Outsiders Team Efficiency Team Rankings Sagarin BeatGraphs Aikman Efficiency Pro Football Reference Cold Hard Football Facts Average Change since last period
Texans 7 2 1 1 3 1 1 1 2.125 0.875 Rising
Broncos 1 1 3 2 8 11 3 2 3.875 2.125 Rising
Bears 4 8 2 3 7 3 2 6 4.375 -0.125 Falling
49ers 6 3 8 5 1 4 5 3 4.375 -1.875 Falling
Packers 5 6 4 6 2 8 6 4 5.125 0.500 Rising
Patriots 2 15 5 4 6 2 4 11 6.125 0.000 No Change
Falcons 12 7 7 7 4 7 8 5 7.125 -1.625 Falling
Seahawks 3 4 9 8 10 13 7 7 7.625 1.000 Rising
Ravens 8 17 6 10 5 5 10 8 8.625 3.250 Rising
Giants 9 9 15 9 16 10 9 12 11.125 -3.625 Falling
Buccaneers 13 13 13 11 13 6 11 10 11.250 0.875 Rising
Steelers 11 16 10 13 11 9 14 9 11.625 -0.625 Falling
Cowboys 10 10 16 12 12 16 12 14 12.750 0.625 Rising
Lions 14 11 18 17 18 12 15 20 15.625 -0.500 Falling
Vikings 15 22 14 14 15 15 13 19 15.875 2.125 Rising
Saints 17 24 12 15 26 14 16 13 17.125 4.375 Rising
Panthers 19 5 22 20 21 20 18 24 18.625 -3.375 Falling
Bengals 16 14 20 21 19 23 22 15 18.750 5.375 Rising
Rams 18 12 19 16 24 27 19 22 19.625 2.000 Rising
Redskins 20 18 26 19 25 18 17 18 20.125 0.000 No Change
Dolphins 21 19 21 23 17 17 24 21 20.375 -5.875 Falling
Chargers 23 21 27 18 27 19 20 17 21.500 1.625 Rising
Colts 27 27 11 24 9 25 25 25 21.625 1.375 Rising
Cardinals 24 28 25 22 23 22 21 16 22.625 -1.750 Falling
Jets 25 23 23 25 20 28 23 27 24.250 -5.000 Falling
Titans 29 30 17 27 14 24 29 29 24.875 3.000 Rising
Eagles 26 20 30 29 29 21 27 23 25.625 -2.750 Falling
Bills 22 29 24 26 22 32 28 28 26.375 0.625 Rising
Browns 28 26 28 28 30 26 26 26 27.250 -0.125 Falling
Raiders 30 25 29 30 28 30 30 30 29.000 -2.125 Falling
Jaguars 32 32 31 32 31 29 31 31 31.125 -0.750 Falling
Chiefs 31 31 32 31 32 31 32 32 31.500 0.375 Rising

Observations:

  • See? I wasn't lying, the Chargers rose in the objective rankings. It just means they did something right this week ... just not enough.
  • For weeks now, the Texans have been atop the Objective rankings. Glad to see the Subjective rankers finally got the memo once the Falcons lost. I've harped on it before, you just can't go by raw record. It's always said each year that Team A is better than their record indicates, why is the inverse less common?
  • Wow, the Broncos aren't far behind either. 4 of the 8 objective sites rank the Broncos 2nd or 1st. *gulp*

Objective Standard Deviation

Objective
Football Outsiders Team Efficiency Team Rankings Sagarin BeatGraphs Aikman Efficiency Pro Football Reference Cold Hard Football Facts Standard Deviation Change since last period
Chiefs 31 31 32 31 32 31 32 32 0.500 0.169 Rising
Jaguars 32 32 31 32 31 29 31 31 0.927 0.231 Rising
Browns 28 26 28 28 30 26 26 26 1.392 -0.696 Falling
Raiders 30 25 29 30 28 30 30 30 1.658 -0.814 Falling
Packers 5 6 4 6 2 8 6 4 1.691 -0.651 Falling
Texans 7 2 1 1 3 1 1 1 1.965 -0.214 Falling
49ers 6 3 8 5 1 4 5 3 1.996 0.673 Rising
Bears 4 8 2 3 7 3 2 6 2.176 -1.206 Falling
Falcons 12 7 7 7 4 7 8 5 2.204 0.025 Rising
Cowboys 10 10 16 12 12 16 12 14 2.222 -2.019 Falling
Buccaneers 13 13 13 11 13 6 11 10 2.278 -0.979 Falling
Steelers 11 16 10 13 11 9 14 9 2.342 0.610 Rising
Jets 25 23 23 25 20 28 23 27 2.385 -0.249 Falling
Dolphins 21 19 21 23 17 17 24 21 2.395 -0.521 Falling
Giants 9 9 15 9 16 10 9 12 2.713 1.847 Rising
Vikings 15 22 14 14 15 15 13 19 2.848 0.064 Rising
Lions 14 11 18 17 18 12 15 20 2.955 -0.666 Falling
Seahawks 3 4 9 8 10 13 7 7 2.997 0.307 Rising
Bengals 16 14 20 21 19 23 22 15 3.152 0.533 Rising
Redskins 20 18 26 19 25 18 17 18 3.219 -0.114 Falling
Cardinals 24 28 25 22 23 22 21 16 3.238 0.098 Rising
Bills 22 29 24 26 22 32 28 28 3.314 -0.958 Falling
Broncos 1 1 3 2 8 11 3 2 3.407 0.128 Rising
Eagles 26 20 30 29 29 21 27 23 3.603 0.052 Rising
Chargers 23 21 27 18 27 19 20 17 3.606 0.506 Rising
Ravens 8 17 6 10 5 5 10 8 3.672 -1.109 Falling
Patriots 2 15 5 4 6 2 4 11 4.285 0.664 Rising
Rams 18 12 19 16 24 27 19 22 4.386 0.714 Rising
Saints 17 24 12 15 26 14 16 13 4.807 0.391 Rising
Panthers 19 5 22 20 21 20 18 24 5.430 0.882 Rising
Titans 29 30 17 27 14 24 29 29 5.732 1.361 Rising
Colts 27 27 11 24 9 25 25 25 6.800 0.377 Rising

Observations:

  • Amusing that the 4 most consistently-ranked teams are at the bottom of the rankings, and all 4 are AFC teams.
  • Some of the objective rankings can be a bit quicker to react to a team's recent successes, as evidenced by the Colts and Titans rankings.

Overall Average

Subj vs Obj
Subjective Average Objective Average Average Change since last period
Texans 1.000 2.125 1.563 1.073 Rising
Bears 4.091 4.375 4.233 -0.608 Falling
49ers 4.727 4.375 4.551 -1.392 Falling
Falcons 2.091 7.125 4.608 -1.358 Falling
Broncos 6.182 3.875 5.028 2.063 Rising
Packers 5.000 5.125 5.063 0.386 Rising
Patriots 7.636 6.125 6.881 -0.228 Falling
Ravens 6.364 8.625 7.494 2.989 Rising
Seahawks 11.273 7.625 9.449 0.682 Rising
Steelers 8.000 11.625 9.813 0.005 Rising
Giants 10.818 11.125 10.972 -3.949 Falling
Buccaneers 13.273 11.250 12.261 1.120 Rising
Cowboys 16.273 12.750 14.511 1.449 Rising
Vikings 14.000 15.875 14.938 1.744 Rising
Saints 14.636 17.125 15.881 4.505 Rising
Colts 11.364 21.625 16.494 0.961 Rising
Lions 17.909 15.625 16.767 -1.977 Falling
Bengals 17.909 18.750 18.330 4.414 Rising
Dolphins 19.364 20.375 19.869 -5.301 Falling
Chargers 20.182 21.500 20.841 -0.688 Falling
Rams 22.455 19.625 21.040 2.000 Rising
Redskins 22.818 20.125 21.472 -0.319 Falling
Cardinals 21.909 22.625 22.267 -1.420 Falling
Panthers 28.182 18.625 23.403 -2.687 Falling
Titans 23.455 24.875 24.165 3.909 Rising
Eagles 23.455 25.625 24.540 -2.693 Falling
Jets 26.818 24.250 25.534 -3.682 Falling
Bills 26.000 26.375 26.188 1.130 Rising
Browns 29.364 27.250 28.307 -0.154 Falling
Raiders 28.455 29.000 28.727 -1.789 Falling
Jaguars 31.546 31.125 31.335 -0.647 Falling
Chiefs 31.455 31.500 31.477 0.461 Rising

Observations:

  • Texans are on top, by a lot.
  • Broncos drop a bit, but are still top 5 and rose over 2 spots this week.
  • Clusters of teams are a bit less defined this week. Kind of a smooth gradient throughout the rankings.

Overall Standard Deviation

Subj vs Obj
Subjective Average Objective Average Standard Deviation Change since last period
Chiefs 31.455 31.500 0.499 0.276 Rising
Jaguars 31.546 31.125 0.741 0.194 Rising
Raiders 28.455 29.000 1.340 -0.451 Falling
Texans 1.000 2.125 1.391 -0.142 Falling
Packers 5.000 5.125 1.395 -0.237 Falling
Browns 29.364 27.250 1.666 -0.487 Falling
Bears 4.091 4.375 1.794 -0.509 Falling
49ers 4.727 4.375 1.816 0.609 Rising
Buccaneers 13.273 11.250 2.008 -0.751 Falling
Giants 10.818 11.125 2.012 0.778 Rising
Dolphins 19.364 20.375 2.142 -0.314 Falling
Jets 26.818 24.250 2.148 -1.158 Falling
Vikings 14.000 15.875 2.214 -0.449 Falling
Cardinals 21.909 22.625 2.261 0.030 Rising
Lions 17.909 15.625 2.350 -0.361 Falling
Bills 26.000 26.375 2.412 -0.512 Falling
Bengals 17.909 18.750 2.446 -0.116 Falling
Cowboys 16.273 12.750 2.647 -1.447 Falling
Seahawks 11.273 7.625 2.731 0.387 Rising
Steelers 8.000 11.625 2.760 0.728 Rising
Broncos 6.182 3.875 2.839 0.393 Rising
Ravens 6.364 8.625 2.848 -0.659 Falling
Falcons 2.091 7.125 2.876 0.242 Rising
Eagles 23.455 25.625 2.977 0.111 Rising
Patriots 7.636 6.125 2.991 0.460 Rising
Redskins 22.818 20.125 3.062 0.159 Rising
Chargers 20.182 21.500 3.274 -0.969 Falling
Saints 14.636 17.125 3.495 -0.053 Falling
Rams 22.455 19.625 3.596 0.227 Rising
Titans 23.455 24.875 4.058 0.897 Rising
Panthers 28.182 18.625 6.020 -0.307 Falling
Colts 11.364 21.625 6.759 -0.164 Falling

Observations:

  • Chiefs, Jaguars, Raiders and Browns: consistently terrible.
  • Texans, Packers, Bears and 49ers: consistently good.
  • It's never fun to lose, but at least the Chargers lost to a team that has turned into a consensus top-12 team. Right, guys?

Difference in Averages

Subj vs Obj
Subjective Average Objective Average Standard Deviation Change since last period
Colts 11.364 21.625 10.261 -0.830 Rising
Falcons 2.091 7.125 5.034 0.534 Rising
Steelers 8.000 11.625 3.625 1.261 Rising
Saints 14.636 17.125 2.489 0.262 Rising
Ravens 6.364 8.625 2.261 -0.523 Rising
Eagles 23.455 25.625 2.171 0.114 Rising
Vikings 14.000 15.875 1.875 -0.761 Rising
Titans 23.455 24.875 1.421 1.819 Rising
Chargers 20.182 21.500 1.318 -4.625 Rising
Texans 1.000 2.125 1.125 0.398 Rising
Dolphins 19.364 20.375 1.011 1.147 Rising
Bengals 17.909 18.750 0.841 -1.920 Rising
Cardinals 21.909 22.625 0.716 0.659 Rising
Raiders 28.455 29.000 0.546 0.671 Rising
Bills 26.000 26.375 0.375 1.011 Rising
Giants 10.818 11.125 0.307 -0.648 Rising
Bears 4.091 4.375 0.284 -0.966 Rising
Packers 5.000 5.125 0.125 -0.227 Rising
Chiefs 31.455 31.500 0.046 0.171 Rising
49ers 4.727 4.375 -0.352 0.966 Rising
Jaguars 31.546 31.125 -0.421 0.204 Rising
Patriots 7.636 6.125 -1.511 -0.454 Rising
Buccaneers 13.273 11.250 -2.023 0.488 Rising
Browns 29.364 27.250 -2.114 -0.057 Rising
Lions 17.909 15.625 -2.284 -2.955 Rising
Broncos 6.182 3.875 -2.307 -0.125 Rising
Jets 26.818 24.250 -2.568 2.637 Rising
Redskins 22.818 20.125 -2.693 -0.636 Rising
Rams 22.455 19.625 -2.830 0.000 No Change
Cowboys 16.273 12.750 -3.523 1.648 Rising
Seahawks 11.273 7.625 -3.648 -0.637 Rising
Panthers 28.182 18.625 -9.557 1.375 Rising

Observations:

  • Colts are still grossly over-ranked. If only they'd stop winning ...
  • Even though they dropped in the subjective rankings, the Falcons are still rather over-ranked.
  • It amuses me slightly that the Eagles are still slightly over-rated.
  • The Panthers are still grossly over-ranked. Sure, they got blown-out by the Broncos, but they're still better than 4th-worst.

Sources