2012 NFL Power Rankings Consensus: Week 5

This is a crazy year in the NFL, once you think you know which teams are great and which aren't, they go and surprise you the next week. What was the laughing stock a year ago has become the powerhouse division: the NFC West. With the emergence of the Arizona Cardinals and Seahawks for a period of time, the NFC West has risen to prominence. The AFC West is barely holding on as not the worst division in the league, but they aren't far off.

One thing I should point out about the subjective rankings this week: I'm not including SportingNews in the rankings as a form of protest. They used to be like every other website out there and list their rankings as one nice long page. Not this week. This week they've decided to take a page out of Bleacher Report's Sleaze Manual and they turned their Power Rankings into a 34-page slideshow. Awful, right? As soon as they go back to the old format that doesn't require 34 mouse clicks (literally), then I'll include them again.

Notable Quotes

ProFootballTalk

Norv Turner finally realizes how ridiculous he sounded when talking about making Ryan Mathews a workhorse.

Umm, excuse me? What a ridiculous thing to say.

Sports Illustrated

So far, so good in San Diego. But Chargers fans know they can't get comfortable with their first-place team. San Diego started last season 4-1, but looked up and was 4-7 and in deep trouble by Thanksgiving weekend. This week's trip to New Orleans is dangerous, because you know the frustrated Saints have to break out and make someone pay at some point. But the Drew Brees and Philip Rivers reunion makes the Sunday nighter worth watching, especially since Brees can break that Johnny Unitas record of 47 consecutive games with at least one touchdown pass.

Fox

The Chargers have some decisions to make in the backfield, and I understand they are concerned with RB Ryan Matthews' fumbling problem. But I don't think they have given him the chance to find his groove yet. Then again, when you have six takeaways in a game, it doesn't really matter whom you have in the backfield.

Reddit

The Chargers had fewer first downs, total plays, total yards, total yards per play, and a worse 3rd down efficiency than KC. Turnovers won the game on Sunday. The defense needs to not go easy when the Chargers are leading, and the offense needs to get their rhythm down if they have any hope of beating contending teams.

Division Averages

Division	Avg Ranking
NFC West	11.7778
NFC North	12.7917
NFC East	14.0139
AFC North	15.5278
AFC East	17.9167
NFC South	19.1806
AFC West	20.1389
AFC South	20.6528

Stock Rising

Team	Week 4 Average	Week 5 Average	Difference
STL	26.364	19.364	7.000
MIN	19.000	14.364	4.636
WAS	21.909	18.364	3.545
PHI	11.273	7.909	3.364
SDG	14.455	11.636	2.819

Stock Falling

Team	Week 4 Average	Week 5 Average	Difference
DAL	10.364	15.636	-5.272
NYJ	17.273	22.455	-5.182
SEA	11.818	16.909	-5.091
NYG	5.546	10.091	-4.545
OAK	25.727	28.909	-3.182

Subjective Average

	Subjective
Texans	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1		1.000		0.091
Falcons	2	2	2	3	2	2	2	2	2	2	2		2.091		-0.091
49ers	4	3	4	2	4	4	3	3	4	3	3		3.364		0.454
Ravens	3	4	5	4	3	3	4	4	3	4	4		3.727		-0.454
Cardinals	5	5	3	11	5	5	5	5	6	7	5		5.636		1.091
Patriots	6	9	7	5	6	6	6	6	9	5	6		6.455		1.818
Eagles	7	6	8	8	8	9	7	8	7	11	8		7.909		3.364
Packers	8	10	14	6	7	7	8	7	8	6	7		8.000		-0.636
Bears	9	7	9	9	9	8	10	11	5	8	9		8.546		1.272
Giants	10	11	11	7	10	10	9	9	14	9	11		10.091		-4.545
Chargers	11	12	10	13	13	14	13	10	12	10	10		11.636		2.819
Bengals	12	8	6	16	12	13	12	14	10	13	12		11.636		1.910
Broncos	13	13	16	12	14	11	11	13	15	12	13		13.000		2.091
Vikings	14	14	13	21	11	12	16	16	11	16	14		14.364		4.636
Steelers	16	16	12	10	18	18	14	15	13	14	15		14.636		-0.909
Cowboys	15	15	17	14	17	19	15	12	17	15	16		15.636		-5.272
Seahawks	17	19	15	18	16	16	17	17	16	18	17		16.909		-5.091
Redskins	18	17	19	20	19	20	18	18	18	17	18		18.364		3.545
Rams	19	18	18	24	15	15	19	23	22	21	19		19.364		7.000
Bills	21	20	20	22	21	17	20	19	19	20	20		19.909		-1.636
Lions	20	21	24	15	22	25	22	20	20	19	21		20.818		-2.000
Jets	23	27	22	23	20	22	21	21	21	24	23		22.455		-5.182
Buccaneers	22	22	26	25	23	23	23	22	23	23	24		23.273		-1.000
Panthers	24	23	29	19	24	21	24	24	26	22	22		23.455		1.000
Titans	25	25	23	27	30	24	27	26	25	27	29		26.182		-1.818
Dolphins	26	26	30	26	25	30	25	25	27	25	25		26.364		2.636
Saints	28	24	31	17	27	28	26	28	28	29	26		26.546		0.363
Chiefs	27	28	25	28	26	27	28	27	29	26	27		27.091		-2.636
Raiders	29	30	21	31	31	31	29	29	31	28	28		28.909		-3.182
Colts	31	29	28	30	29	26	30	31	24	31	31		29.091		0.727
Jaguars	30	31	27	32	28	29	31	30	30	30	30		29.818		-0.454
Browns	32	32	32	29	32	32	32	32	32	32	32		31.727		0.091

Observations:

• What wasn't a unanimous consensus last week has become just that: the Houston Texans are your (subjectively) unanimous number-one team.
• Amusing to me that the Steelers dropped an average of one whole spot, on their bye week. Guess they had to make room for a better team.
• For the most part, NFL.com and AP are the closest to the overall consensus. That makes sense though, seeing as how both of their rankings are made up by a consensus vote.
• Chargers rose another almost 3 spots this week. Chiefs dropped nearly as much.
• USA Today has the Saints at #17. As you'll see shortly, that's ridiculous.

Subjective Standard Deviation

	Subjective
Texans	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1		0.000		-0.288
Falcons	2	2	2	3	2	2	2	2	2	2	2		0.288		-0.138
Ravens	3	4	5	4	3	3	4	4	3	4	4		0.617		-0.133
49ers	4	3	4	2	4	4	3	3	4	3	3		0.643		0.257
Browns	32	32	32	29	32	32	32	32	32	32	32		0.862		0.287
Redskins	18	17	19	20	19	20	18	18	18	17	18		0.979		-0.104
Chiefs	27	28	25	28	26	27	28	27	29	26	27		1.083		-0.642
Seahawks	17	19	15	18	16	16	17	17	16	18	17		1.083		-1.707
Buccaneers	22	22	26	25	23	23	23	22	23	23	24		1.213		-0.497
Bills	21	20	20	22	21	17	20	19	19	20	20		1.240		-0.523
Eagles	7	6	8	8	8	9	7	8	7	11	8		1.240		-1.286
Patriots	6	9	7	5	6	6	6	6	9	5	6		1.305		-0.115
Jaguars	30	31	27	32	28	29	31	30	30	30	30		1.336		-0.096
Chargers	11	12	10	13	13	14	13	10	12	10	10		1.432		-0.956
Broncos	13	13	16	12	14	11	11	13	15	12	13		1.477		-0.544
Bears	9	7	9	9	9	8	10	11	5	8	9		1.499		-0.028
Giants	10	11	11	7	10	10	9	9	14	9	11		1.676		0.785
Cowboys	15	15	17	14	17	19	15	12	17	15	16		1.772		-0.455
Dolphins	26	26	30	26	25	30	25	25	27	25	25		1.823		0.409
Jets	23	27	22	23	20	22	21	21	21	24	23		1.827		0.344
Cardinals	5	5	3	11	5	5	5	5	6	7	5		1.920		-0.496
Titans	25	25	23	27	30	24	27	26	25	27	29		1.992		0.169
Packers	8	10	14	6	7	7	8	7	8	6	7		2.174		-0.695
Colts	31	29	28	30	29	26	30	31	24	31	31		2.193		0.112
Steelers	16	16	12	10	18	18	14	15	13	14	15		2.307		0.493
Panthers	24	23	29	19	24	21	24	24	26	22	22		2.500		-0.209
Lions	20	21	24	15	22	25	22	20	20	19	21		2.516		-0.463
Bengals	12	8	6	16	12	13	12	14	10	13	12		2.638		0.490
Vikings	14	14	13	21	11	12	16	16	11	16	14		2.739		0.042
Raiders	29	30	21	31	31	31	29	29	31	28	28		2.745		-0.273
Rams	19	18	18	24	15	15	19	23	22	21	19		2.805		0.838
Saints	28	24	31	17	27	28	26	28	28	29	26		3.474		-0.398

Observations:

• No surprise here that the 5 lowest Standard Deviation are the 5 teams closest to the top and bottom.
• On the whole, the overall Standard Deviation dropped this week, teams are settling in more and more and a consensus across the board is slowly developing.
• The Chargers are far more consistent this week in their rankings. Their StdDev dropped by nearly 1.
• Even though the Chargers and Bengals were exactly tied in the Subjective Average, the Bengals are in the bottom 5 as far as ranking consistency. Their ranking swings anywhere from 6th to 16th!
• USA Today is throwing a wrench in the rankings for the Rams, Saints and Vikings.

Objective Average

	Objective
Texans	4	1	1	1	6	1	1		2.143		3.107
Falcons	2	2	3	5	5	6	2		3.571		-1.071
Ravens	5	5	4	4	4	5	3		4.286		-0.536
Patriots	1	8	5	2	11	2	6		5.000		1.500
49ers	6	7	7	3	7	3	7		5.714		2.786
Bears	8	9	9	7	8	8	5		7.714		5.286
Cardinals	22	17	2	6	1	4	4		8.000		-0.250
Broncos	7	3	11	10	15	7	9		8.857		5.393
Vikings	10	13	10	13	3	10	8		9.571		4.679
Eagles	12	6	8	15	2	15	12		10.000		0.250
Packers	3	15	14	8	16	12	10		11.143		-0.893
Giants	9	10	17	9	18	11	11		12.143		-3.393
Chargers	17	16	12	11	9	16	13		13.429		0.821
Seahawks	11	26	13	14	10	9	14		13.857		-5.857
Bengals	20	12	6	16	13	13	18		14.000		4.250
Dolphins	13	11	22	20	20	14	20		17.143		3.107
Cowboys	21	14	20	18	12	21	23		18.429		-6.679
Steelers	14	25	23	12	21	19	17		18.714		-2.714
Bills	19	20	24	21	22	27	19		21.714		-8.214
Lions	18	18	26	22	25	20	24		21.857		-0.107
Redskins	23	30	21	17	28	18	16		21.857		3.143
Jets	24	24	18	23	14	25	28		22.286		-10.786
Rams	31	23	16	29	26	17	15		22.429		8.321
Panthers	16	4	31	28	31	28	21		22.714		3.786
Colts	26	29	19	25	17	26	27		24.143		3.357
Jaguars	29	28	15	30	23	24	29		25.429		-1.679
Titans	28	19	25	27	19	30	30		25.429		-0.179
Browns	27	21	28	26	29	23	26		25.714		4.536
Buccaneers	25	31	30	24	30	22	22		26.286		-2.036
Saints	15	32	32	19	32	29	25		26.286		-1.536
Raiders	30	22	27	32	24	31	31		28.143		-3.143
Chiefs	32	27	29	31	27	32	32		30.000		-5.250

Observations:

• You'll notice I've added a few more objective sites. Making a return this week is Team Efficiency. New this week are: Pro Football Reference and Cold Hard Football Facts.
• When using objective rankings like this, it's helpful to look at the outliers. Look at Football Outsiders and Team Efficiency ranking the Cardinals. Or Team Efficiency's ranking for the Panthers. Interesting.
• Sharp delineation from the Bengals on down.
• Jets and Bills are plummeting.
• Oh look, the Chiefs are at the bottom of this list. Next to the Raiders. And then the Saints. Oh and the Titans are only 3 spots from the Saints. So should the Chargers beat the Saints on Sunday night, they'll be 4-1, with wins against 4 of the 6 worst objectively-ranked teams. Talk about a cake schedule (not that I'm complaining).

Objective Standard Deviation

	Objective
Ravens	5	5	4	4	4	5	3		0.700		-1.465
Bears	8	9	9	7	8	8	5		1.278		-3.570
Falcons	2	2	3	5	5	6	2		1.591		0.473
49ers	6	7	7	3	7	3	7		1.750		0.092
Texans	4	1	1	1	6	1	1		1.884		-0.977
Chiefs	32	27	29	31	27	32	32		2.138		-1.629
Browns	27	21	28	26	29	23	26		2.603		1.124
Bills	19	20	24	21	22	27	19		2.711		-0.643
Chargers	17	16	12	11	9	16	13		2.770		-1.993
Lions	18	18	26	22	25	20	24		3.044		-1.613
Vikings	10	13	10	13	3	10	8		3.156		-2.942
Patriots	1	8	5	2	11	2	6		3.381		-1.934
Broncos	7	3	11	10	15	7	9		3.482		-0.285
Giants	9	10	17	9	18	11	11		3.482		0.994
Raiders	30	22	27	32	24	31	31		3.603		1.053
Buccaneers	25	31	30	24	30	22	22		3.653		2.354
Cowboys	21	14	20	18	12	21	23		3.736		0.391
Dolphins	13	11	22	20	20	14	20		4.015		2.925
Colts	26	29	19	25	17	26	27		4.086		2.586
Packers	3	15	14	8	16	12	10		4.223		0.077
Bengals	20	12	6	16	13	13	18		4.243		-0.874
Steelers	14	25	23	12	21	19	17		4.366		-0.377
Jets	24	24	18	23	14	25	28		4.366		3.866
Titans	28	19	25	27	19	30	30		4.371		2.451
Eagles	12	6	8	15	2	15	12		4.504		-0.465
Jaguars	29	28	15	30	23	24	29		4.924		0.901
Redskins	23	30	21	17	28	18	16		5.055		0.812
Seahawks	11	26	13	14	10	9	14		5.276		-1.243
Rams	31	23	16	29	26	17	15		6.044		4.745
Saints	15	32	32	19	32	29	25		6.408		-1.970
Cardinals	22	17	2	6	1	4	4		7.540		-1.983
Panthers	16	4	31	28	31	28	21		9.192		4.167

Observations:

• The Ravens have the lowest Standard Deviation on the Objective graphs, and I'll show you why that's noteworthy in a moment.
• The Chiefs are not only at the bottom of the list, but they're there consistently. Even though they beat the Saints, they've not played well at all this year.
• Again, the NFC is the more difficult to rank conference as they account for 7 of the 8 least-consistently-ranked teams.
• The Chargers are kind of in the middle of consistency, but they've improved this week.

Overall Average

	Subj vs Obj
Texans	1.000	2.143		1.571		1.599
Falcons	2.091	3.571		2.831		-0.581
Ravens	3.727	4.286		4.007		-0.496
49ers	3.364	5.714		4.539		1.620
Patriots	6.455	5.000		5.727		1.659
Cardinals	5.636	8.000		6.818		0.421
Bears	8.546	7.714		8.130		3.279
Eagles	7.909	10.000		8.955		1.806
Packers	8.000	11.143		9.571		-0.764
Broncos	13.000	8.857		10.929		3.741
Giants	10.091	12.143		11.117		-3.969
Vikings	14.364	9.571		11.968		4.657
Chargers	11.636	13.429		12.533		1.819
Bengals	11.636	14.000		12.818		3.080
Seahawks	16.909	13.857		15.383		-5.474
Steelers	14.636	18.714		16.675		-1.811
Cowboys	15.636	18.429		17.033		-5.976
Redskins	18.364	21.857		20.110		3.345
Bills	19.909	21.714		20.812		-4.926
Rams	19.364	22.429		20.896		7.661
Lions	20.818	21.857		21.338		-1.054
Dolphins	26.364	17.143		21.753		2.872
Jets	22.455	22.286		22.370		-7.984
Panthers	23.455	22.714		23.084		2.393
Buccaneers	23.273	26.286		24.779		-1.518
Titans	26.182	25.429		25.805		-0.998
Saints	26.546	26.286		26.416		-0.586
Colts	29.091	24.143		26.617		2.042
Jaguars	29.818	25.429		27.623		-1.066
Raiders	28.909	28.143		28.526		-3.162
Chiefs	27.091	30.000		28.545		-3.943
Browns	31.727	25.714		28.721		2.313

Observations:

• Once you factor in both sets of sources, the Texans are still far-and-away the best team in the NFL right now.
• Even though they were ranked higher than the Broncos in the Subjective rankings, overall, the Broncos are ranked higher than the Chargers.
• All the hope and hype in Dallas this year is quickly dying.

Overall Standard Deviation

	Subj vs Obj
Ravens	3.727	4.286		0.705		-0.601
Falcons	2.091	3.571		1.247		0.529
Texans	1.000	2.143		1.301		-1.071
Bears	8.546	7.714		1.474		-1.681
49ers	3.364	5.714		1.660		-0.605
Chiefs	27.091	30.000		2.123		-0.323
Bills	19.909	21.714		2.138		-0.982
Chargers	11.636	13.429		2.236		-0.964
Patriots	6.455	5.000		2.447		-0.656
Giants	10.091	12.143		2.726		0.667
Lions	20.818	21.857		2.780		-0.958
Buccaneers	23.273	26.286		2.872		1.039
Cowboys	15.636	18.429		3.033		0.388
Jets	22.455	22.286		3.076		0.213
Raiders	28.909	28.143		3.129		0.211
Eagles	7.909	10.000		3.141		-0.245
Titans	26.182	25.429		3.160		1.270
Broncos	13.000	8.857		3.182		0.552
Browns	31.727	25.714		3.418		2.275
Packers	8.000	11.143		3.489		-0.011
Bengals	11.636	14.000		3.547		-0.286
Redskins	18.364	21.857		3.664		0.920
Seahawks	16.909	13.857		3.709		-0.751
Vikings	14.364	9.571		3.731		-0.703
Steelers	14.636	18.714		3.823		0.753
Jaguars	29.818	25.429		3.886		0.424
Colts	29.091	24.143		3.905		1.708
Rams	19.364	22.429		4.609		1.954
Saints	26.546	26.286		4.833		-0.701
Cardinals	5.636	8.000		5.069		-0.285
Dolphins	26.364	17.143		5.339		1.246
Panthers	23.455	22.714		6.067		2.471

Observations:

• Ravens again the most consistently-ranked team, overall. Significantly more consistent than the Falcons or Texans.
• Chargers are relatively consistent this week.
• Overall, things are a bit more balanced as far as conference is concerned. Now the NFC and AFC each have 4 of the 8 least-consistent rankings.
• Even though their average Subjective and Objective rankings are rather similar, the Panthers rankings are all over the board.

Difference in Averages

	Subj vs Obj
Steelers	14.636	18.714		4.078		-1.805
Redskins	18.364	21.857		3.494		-0.403
Packers	8.000	11.143		3.143		-0.257
Rams	19.364	22.429		3.065		1.321
Buccaneers	23.273	26.286		3.013		-1.036
Chiefs	27.091	30.000		2.909		-2.613
Cowboys	15.636	18.429		2.792		-1.406
Bengals	11.636	14.000		2.364		2.341
Cardinals	5.636	8.000		2.364		-1.341
49ers	3.364	5.714		2.351		2.331
Eagles	7.909	10.000		2.091		-3.114
Giants	10.091	12.143		2.052		1.153
Bills	19.909	21.714		1.805		-6.578
Chargers	11.636	13.429		1.792		-1.997
Falcons	2.091	3.571		1.481		-0.981
Texans	1.000	2.143		1.143		3.016
Lions	20.818	21.857		1.039		1.893
Ravens	3.727	4.286		0.558		-0.081
Jets	22.455	22.286		-0.169		-5.604
Saints	26.546	26.286		-0.260		-1.899
Panthers	23.455	22.714		-0.740		2.786
Titans	26.182	25.429		-0.753		1.639
Raiders	28.909	28.143		-0.766		0.039
Bears	8.546	7.714		-0.831		4.013
Patriots	6.455	5.000		-1.455		-0.318
Seahawks	16.909	13.857		-3.052		-0.766
Broncos	13.000	8.857		-4.143		3.302
Jaguars	29.818	25.429		-4.390		-1.224
Vikings	14.364	9.571		-4.792		0.042
Colts	29.091	24.143		-4.948		2.630
Browns	31.727	25.714		-6.013		4.445
Dolphins	26.364	17.143		-9.221		0.471

Observations:

• Pittsburgh Steelers: not as good as they seem apparently. Or maybe they're actually better than they've been playing?
• The RGIII excitement is still keeping the Redskins buoyed.
• The Chargers are ranked slightly higher than they've been playing, but nothing ridiculous.
• Remember me pointing out the Ravens Standard Deviation being the lowest? Well look at their difference in averages. They're spot-on as a number-4 team in the NFL across the board, they're that good.
• Even thought the Chiefs are ranked in the bottom-5 subjectively, it seems to still be too high.
• Ahh the Dolphins, everyone's favorite whipping-boy this year. Still can't get any respect.
• The Browns are actually playing much better than people want to believe.

Sources

• ESPN
• Fox
• CBS
• USA Today
• Sports Illustrated
• ProFootballTalk
• NFL.com
• Pro Football Weekly
• SB Nation
• Reddit
• Associated Press
• Football Outsiders
• Team Efficiency
• Team Rankings
• Sagarin
• BeatGraphs
• Pro Football Reference
• Cold Hard Football Facts