Is it time to panic? The San Diego Chargers are 4-3 after seven games. That's their best mark after seven games under Norv Turner. They haven't lost a game they were supposed to win. Historically, Turner-coached Charger squads have played their best in November and December. So, obviously no. It's not time to panic. Right?
Wrong. It's well, well past time to panic. While the Chargers might have tied their best 7 game record ever under Norv, they've done so while playing some of their worst football. And even though they haven't lost any games they were expected to win, they also haven't won any games they were expected to lose. That also means that they were expected to lose to a bad team like Kansas City and can expect to continue to lose to bad teams like Kansas City.
With nine games left to play in the regular season, the Chargers have only two contests left where they can reasonably be expected to win. Both are home games against mediocre to terrible teams in the Oakland Raiders and the Denver Broncos. That means is that if the Chargers continue to do what they've done so far, which is put up results consistent with their statistical profile, they'll finish the year at 6-10.
That's not some worst case scenario either. That's the most likely outcome. They could easily underperform and lose out finishing 4-12. Both of the games they're supposed to win are against divisional opponents, who could conceivably knock off the Chargers in Qualcomm.
But maybe you're more optimistic than I am (and than the facts support). Okay, let's look at an optimistic scenario. The Chargers finish the regular season having won every game they were supposed to (that's 6 right there) and then they also find a way to win two games they were supposed to lose. That'll get you to 8-8. That'll get you nothing. To finish with a winning record, San Diego will need to over perform down the stretch by three games and to have a realistic shot at the playoffs they'll need to over perform by four games.
Those of you who are regular readers know I'm an optimist when it comes to this team and this coaching staff, but realistically after eight weeks this season is all but done. They've played poorly in their victories and even more poorly in their losses. They're below average in every phase of the game with no sign of improvement. In all honesty, they've regressed as the season has progressed. They're a bad team that keeps getting worse. Enjoy having a winning record and being tied for first place the next two days because in all likelihood this is the last time the Chargers will be able to claim either of those accomplishments this season after the Green Bay Packers come to town on Sunday and blow them out of the water.