2011 NFL Power Rankings from Around the Web: Week 13

Everyone have a good Thanksgiving holiday last week? All rested up and fattened? Excellent. It's likely that none of you noticed I didn't do my usual Power Rankings from Around the Web post last week. My in-laws were visiting us so I was a bit preoccupied, not to mention you all were preoccupied and wouldn't have seen it anyway.

So, 2011 is turning into a hell of a season for our beloved Chargers, isn't it? I couldn't tell you the last time the Chargers played this poorly and were ranked this low. Maybe 2003? 2005? We sure got used to being a top-12 team and perennial playoff contenders. The Chargers continue their tumble down the rankings, while the Raiders and Broncos are climbing. Who saw that coming?

In fact, it's that very question that led me to crunch the numbers and come up with a new chart: Most Surprising and Disappointing Teams. I took the Subjective Averages from Week 1 for all 32 teams and compared their Subjective Averages this week to see which teams are performing better and worse than they were expected leading into this season. You can find that chart after the jump.

In the meantime, let's take a look at some notable quotes this week and also how the various divisions stack up.

Notable Quotes

Fox Sports

So I picked the Chargers to win the Super Bowl. I was wrong.

Sports Illustrated

Under the heading of stuff you just can't make up, I'm sure there are a thousand lines that flood to mind when you think of the sideline bathroom break taken by Chargers kicker Nick Novak and the state of San Diego's down-the-toilet season, but I'm going to take the high road and resist them all. Or most of them.

ProFootballTalk

22. Cardinals (No. 26; 4-7): This team may not be as far away from contending as it appears.
23. Chiefs (No. 22; 4-7): This team may not be as far away from contending as it appears.
24. Chargers (No. 23; 4-7): This team may not be as far away from contending as it appears.
25. Dolphins (No. 24; 3-8): This team may not be as far away from contending as it appears.

Division Averages

Division	Avg Ranking
AFC North	11.7353
NFC North	12.8235
AFC East	15.1176
NFC South	15.7059
NFC East	16.6324
AFC West	18.5588
AFC South	20.3824
NFC West	21.0441

Surprises

Like outlined above, this chart compares the Subjective Averages of each team from Week 1 and this week. I then took the teams with the 5 biggest differences on each end of the spectrum.

Team	Week 1 Average	Week 13 Average	Difference
SF	25.667	3.833	21.834
CIN	30.778	12.250	18.528
DEN	29.000	14.917	14.083
OAK	20.889	11.167	9.722
BUF	28.000	18.750	9.250

Disappointments

Team	Week 1 Average	Week 13 Average	Difference
IND	11.778	32.000	-20.222
SDG	7.000	21.167	-14.167
STL	17.667	31.000	-13.333
PHI	6.222	18.583	-12.361
TB	12.333	21.083	-8.750

Subjective Average

	Subjective
Packers	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1		1.000		0.000
Ravens	2	3	2	3	3	2	3	3	2	3	3	3		2.667		0.471
49ers	3	4	3	4	4	6	4	5	3	4	4	2		3.833		0.986
Saints	4	6	6	5	2	5	2	6	5	5	2	4		4.333		1.491
Patriots	6	2	7	2	6	4	6	2	6	2	6	6		4.583		1.935
Steelers	5	5	5	6	5	3	5	4	4	6	5	5		4.833		0.799
Texans	7	7	4	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7		6.750		0.829
Cowboys	8	9	9	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	13		8.583		1.382
Falcons	9	8	8	9	9	11	9	9	9	9	14	8		9.333		1.599
Bears	12	12	12	11	11	10	10	11	13	11	9	11		11.083		1.038
Raiders	10	10	10	13	10	9	12	10	12	13	13	12		11.167		1.404
Lions	11	11	13	10	12	12	14	12	14	10	10	10		11.583		1.441
Bengals	13	13	11	14	13	13	11	14	10	14	12	9		12.250		1.588
Giants	14	14	14	12	16	17	13	16	11	12	16	14		14.083		1.801
Broncos	16	15	15	15	14	14	15	13	16	15	15	16		14.917		0.862
Jets	15	16	16	16	15	15	16	15	15	16	11	15		15.083		1.320
Titans	17	17	17	17	17	16	17	17	17	17	17	17		16.917		0.276
Eagles	18	18	18	19	19	18	18	18	19	19	20	19		18.583		0.640
Bills	19	19	19	18	18	21	19	20	18	18	18	18		18.750		0.924
Buccaneers	20	23	21	21	21	20	22	21	24	21	19	20		21.083		1.320
Chargers	22	21	23	20	20	24	21	19	20	20	23	21		21.167		1.463
Seahawks	24	22	22	24	24	19	23	23	21	24	21	23		22.500		1.500
Dolphins	26	24	25	22	22	25	20	22	25	22	24	24		23.417		1.706
Redskins	23	20	26	25	23	28	26	28	22	25	27	25		24.833		2.339
Chiefs	21	28	20	29	26	23	24	26	27	29	25	22		25.000		2.916
Cardinals	25	26	28	26	25	22	25	27	23	26	28	26		25.583		1.706
Browns	27	30	24	23	27	26	28	30	26	23	22	27		26.083		2.532
Panthers	28	25	27	27	28	27	27	24	28	27	26	28		26.833		1.213
Jaguars	29	29	30	28	29	29	30	29	29	28	29	29		29.000		0.577
Vikings	30	27	29	30	30	30	29	25	30	30	30	30		29.167		1.518
Rams	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31		31.000		0.000
Colts	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32		32.000		0.000

Observations:

• I'm only echoing what others around here have said, but are we sure there isn't a third Harbaugh brother out there wanting to coach the Chargers?
• A nice cluster of teams around 4th-place: 49ers, Saints, Patriots and Steelers all within one position of each other.

Subjective Standard Deviation

	Subjective
Rams	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31		31.000		0.000
Packers	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1		1.000		0.000
Colts	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32		32.000		0.000
Titans	17	17	17	17	17	16	17	17	17	17	17	17		16.917		0.276
Ravens	2	3	2	3	3	2	3	3	2	3	3	3		2.667		0.471
Jaguars	29	29	30	28	29	29	30	29	29	28	29	29		29.000		0.577
Eagles	18	18	18	19	19	18	18	18	19	19	20	19		18.583		0.640
Steelers	5	5	5	6	5	3	5	4	4	6	5	5		4.833		0.799
Texans	7	7	4	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7		6.750		0.829
Broncos	16	15	15	15	14	14	15	13	16	15	15	16		14.917		0.862
Bills	19	19	19	18	18	21	19	20	18	18	18	18		18.750		0.924
49ers	3	4	3	4	4	6	4	5	3	4	4	2		3.833		0.986
Bears	12	12	12	11	11	10	10	11	13	11	9	11		11.083		1.038
Panthers	28	25	27	27	28	27	27	24	28	27	26	28		26.833		1.213
Jets	15	16	16	16	15	15	16	15	15	16	11	15		15.083		1.320
Buccaneers	20	23	21	21	21	20	22	21	24	21	19	20		21.083		1.320
Cowboys	8	9	9	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	13		8.583		1.382
Raiders	10	10	10	13	10	9	12	10	12	13	13	12		11.167		1.404
Lions	11	11	13	10	12	12	14	12	14	10	10	10		11.583		1.441
Chargers	22	21	23	20	20	24	21	19	20	20	23	21		21.167		1.463
Saints	4	6	6	5	2	5	2	6	5	5	2	4		4.333		1.491
Seahawks	24	22	22	24	24	19	23	23	21	24	21	23		22.500		1.500
Vikings	30	27	29	30	30	30	29	25	30	30	30	30		29.167		1.518
Bengals	13	13	11	14	13	13	11	14	10	14	12	9		12.250		1.588
Falcons	9	8	8	9	9	11	9	9	9	9	14	8		9.333		1.599
Cardinals	25	26	28	26	25	22	25	27	23	26	28	26		25.583		1.706
Dolphins	26	24	25	22	22	25	20	22	25	22	24	24		23.417		1.706
Giants	14	14	14	12	16	17	13	16	11	12	16	14		14.083		1.801
Patriots	6	2	7	2	6	4	6	2	6	2	6	6		4.583		1.935
Redskins	23	20	26	25	23	28	26	28	22	25	27	25		24.833		2.339
Browns	27	30	24	23	27	26	28	30	26	23	22	27		26.083		2.532
Chiefs	21	28	20	29	26	23	24	26	27	29	25	22		25.000		2.916

Observations:

• Rams, Colts and Packers unaniumous in their positioning at 31, 32 and 1 respectively.
• Wow. Titans almost unaniumously number-17 across the board, except for PFT being the lone wolf putting them at 16th.

Objective Average

	Objective
Packers	2	2	1	1	1		1.400		0.490
Texans	1	1	2	3	4		2.200		1.166
Steelers	4	3	3	9	6		5.000		2.280
Patriots	3	4	6	5	8		5.200		1.721
Ravens	7	10	4	4	2		5.400		2.800
Saints	10	5	7	6	3		6.200		2.315
49ers	8	13	5	2	5		6.600		3.720
Bears	6	11	8	8	10		8.600		1.744
Lions	11	9	9	7	12		9.600		1.744
Falcons	9	14	10	12	11		11.200		1.721
Cowboys	12	6	14	10	17		11.800		3.709
Jets	5	15	15	11	15		12.200		3.919
Raiders	17	12	12	15	9		13.000		2.757
Giants	15	8	17	19	7		13.200		4.833
Bengals	13	16	13	13	16		14.200		1.470
Titans	16	21	16	14	13		16.000		2.757
Broncos	19	23	11	16	14		16.600		4.128
Eagles	14	7	19	18	27		17.000		6.542
Dolphins	18	18	18	20	22		19.200		1.600
Bills	22	17	24	17	23		20.600		3.007
Chargers	24	19	23	22	18		21.200		2.315
Buccaneers	21	26	21	21	19		21.600		2.332
Seahawks	25	28	22	23	21		23.800		2.482
Jaguars	20	22	25	24	29		24.000		3.033
Browns	26	24	28	27	20		25.000		2.828
Redskins	27	20	26	25	30		25.600		3.262
Cardinals	30	30	20	26	26		26.400		3.666
Panthers	23	25	30	28	28		26.800		2.482
Vikings	28	29	29	29	25		28.000		1.549
Chiefs	29	31	27	30	24		28.200		2.482
Rams	31	27	31	31	32		30.400		1.744
Colts	32	32	32	32	31		31.800		0.400

Observations:

• Despite being a solid 7th-ranking subjectively, the objective ranking systems have the Texans giving the Packers a run for their money; two sites even rank the Texans above the Pack.
• Another cluster of teams around the 5th position, mostly involving the same teams as above.

Objective Standard Deviation

	Objective
Colts	32	32	32	32	31		31.800		0.400
Packers	2	2	1	1	1		1.400		0.490
Texans	1	1	2	3	4		2.200		1.166
Bengals	13	16	13	13	16		14.200		1.470
Vikings	28	29	29	29	25		28.000		1.549
Dolphins	18	18	18	20	22		19.200		1.600
Falcons	9	14	10	12	11		11.200		1.721
Patriots	3	4	6	5	8		5.200		1.721
Bears	6	11	8	8	10		8.600		1.744
Lions	11	9	9	7	12		9.600		1.744
Rams	31	27	31	31	32		30.400		1.744
Steelers	4	3	3	9	6		5.000		2.280
Saints	10	5	7	6	3		6.200		2.315
Chargers	24	19	23	22	18		21.200		2.315
Buccaneers	21	26	21	21	19		21.600		2.332
Chiefs	29	31	27	30	24		28.200		2.482
Panthers	23	25	30	28	28		26.800		2.482
Seahawks	25	28	22	23	21		23.800		2.482
Raiders	17	12	12	15	9		13.000		2.757
Titans	16	21	16	14	13		16.000		2.757
Ravens	7	10	4	4	2		5.400		2.800
Browns	26	24	28	27	20		25.000		2.828
Bills	22	17	24	17	23		20.600		3.007
Jaguars	20	22	25	24	29		24.000		3.033
Redskins	27	20	26	25	30		25.600		3.262
Cardinals	30	30	20	26	26		26.400		3.666
Cowboys	12	6	14	10	17		11.800		3.709
49ers	8	13	5	2	5		6.600		3.720
Jets	5	15	15	11	15		12.200		3.919
Broncos	19	23	11	16	14		16.600		4.128
Giants	15	8	17	19	7		13.200		4.833
Eagles	14	7	19	18	27		17.000		6.542

Overall Average

	Subj vs Obj
Packers	1.000	1.400		1.200		0.322		0.400
Ravens	2.667	5.400		4.033		2.004		2.733
Texans	6.750	2.200		4.475		2.277		-4.550
Patriots	4.583	5.200		4.892		1.895		0.617
Steelers	4.833	5.000		4.917		1.409		0.167
49ers	3.833	6.600		5.217		2.519		2.767
Saints	4.333	6.200		5.267		1.967		1.867
Bears	11.083	8.600		9.842		1.713		-2.483
Cowboys	8.583	11.800		10.192		2.747		3.217
Falcons	9.333	11.200		10.267		1.843		1.867
Lions	11.583	9.600		10.592		1.782		-1.983
Raiders	11.167	13.000		12.083		2.080		1.833
Bengals	12.250	14.200		13.225		1.790		1.950
Giants	14.083	13.200		13.642		3.053		-0.883
Jets	15.083	12.200		13.642		2.734		-2.883
Broncos	14.917	16.600		15.758		2.475		1.683
Titans	16.917	16.000		16.458		1.570		-0.917
Eagles	18.583	17.000		17.792		3.660		-1.583
Bills	18.750	20.600		19.675		1.993		1.850
Chargers	21.167	21.200		21.183		1.757		0.033
Dolphins	23.417	19.200		21.308		2.549		-4.217
Buccaneers	21.083	21.600		21.342		1.699		0.517
Seahawks	22.500	23.800		23.150		1.937		1.300
Redskins	24.833	25.600		25.217		2.667		0.767
Browns	26.083	25.000		25.542		2.669		-1.083
Cardinals	25.583	26.400		25.992		2.479		0.817
Jaguars	29.000	24.000		26.500		2.852		-5.000
Chiefs	25.000	28.200		26.600		3.152		3.200
Panthers	26.833	26.800		26.817		1.689		-0.033
Vikings	29.167	28.000		28.583		1.617		-1.167
Rams	31.000	30.400		30.700		0.984		-0.600
Colts	32.000	31.800		31.900		0.235		-0.200

Overall Standard Deviation

	Subj vs Obj
Colts	32.000	31.800		31.900		0.235		-0.200
Packers	1.000	1.400		1.200		0.322		0.400
Rams	31.000	30.400		30.700		0.984		-0.600
Steelers	4.833	5.000		4.917		1.409		0.167
Titans	16.917	16.000		16.458		1.570		-0.917
Vikings	29.167	28.000		28.583		1.617		-1.167
Panthers	26.833	26.800		26.817		1.689		-0.033
Buccaneers	21.083	21.600		21.342		1.699		0.517
Bears	11.083	8.600		9.842		1.713		-2.483
Chargers	21.167	21.200		21.183		1.757		0.033
Lions	11.583	9.600		10.592		1.782		-1.983
Bengals	12.250	14.200		13.225		1.790		1.950
Falcons	9.333	11.200		10.267		1.843		1.867
Patriots	4.583	5.200		4.892		1.895		0.617
Seahawks	22.500	23.800		23.150		1.937		1.300
Saints	4.333	6.200		5.267		1.967		1.867
Bills	18.750	20.600		19.675		1.993		1.850
Ravens	2.667	5.400		4.033		2.004		2.733
Raiders	11.167	13.000		12.083		2.080		1.833
Texans	6.750	2.200		4.475		2.277		-4.550
Broncos	14.917	16.600		15.758		2.475		1.683
Cardinals	25.583	26.400		25.992		2.479		0.817
49ers	3.833	6.600		5.217		2.519		2.767
Dolphins	23.417	19.200		21.308		2.549		-4.217
Redskins	24.833	25.600		25.217		2.667		0.767
Browns	26.083	25.000		25.542		2.669		-1.083
Jets	15.083	12.200		13.642		2.734		-2.883
Cowboys	8.583	11.800		10.192		2.747		3.217
Jaguars	29.000	24.000		26.500		2.852		-5.000
Giants	14.083	13.200		13.642		3.053		-0.883
Chiefs	25.000	28.200		26.600		3.152		3.200
Eagles	18.583	17.000		17.792		3.660		-1.583

Observations:

• Colts are definitely more bad than the Packers are good.

Difference in Averages

	Subj vs Obj
Cowboys	8.583	11.800		10.192		2.747		3.217
Chiefs	25.000	28.200		26.600		3.152		3.200
49ers	3.833	6.600		5.217		2.519		2.767
Ravens	2.667	5.400		4.033		2.004		2.733
Bengals	12.250	14.200		13.225		1.790		1.950
Falcons	9.333	11.200		10.267		1.843		1.867
Saints	4.333	6.200		5.267		1.967		1.867
Bills	18.750	20.600		19.675		1.993		1.850
Raiders	11.167	13.000		12.083		2.080		1.833
Broncos	14.917	16.600		15.758		2.475		1.683
Seahawks	22.500	23.800		23.150		1.937		1.300
Cardinals	25.583	26.400		25.992		2.479		0.817
Redskins	24.833	25.600		25.217		2.667		0.767
Patriots	4.583	5.200		4.892		1.895		0.617
Buccaneers	21.083	21.600		21.342		1.699		0.517
Packers	1.000	1.400		1.200		0.322		0.400
Steelers	4.833	5.000		4.917		1.409		0.167
Chargers	21.167	21.200		21.183		1.757		0.033
Panthers	26.833	26.800		26.817		1.689		-0.033
Colts	32.000	31.800		31.900		0.235		-0.200
Rams	31.000	30.400		30.700		0.984		-0.600
Giants	14.083	13.200		13.642		3.053		-0.883
Titans	16.917	16.000		16.458		1.570		-0.917
Browns	26.083	25.000		25.542		2.669		-1.083
Vikings	29.167	28.000		28.583		1.617		-1.167
Eagles	18.583	17.000		17.792		3.660		-1.583
Lions	11.583	9.600		10.592		1.782		-1.983
Bears	11.083	8.600		9.842		1.713		-2.483
Jets	15.083	12.200		13.642		2.734		-2.883
Dolphins	23.417	19.200		21.308		2.549		-4.217
Texans	6.750	2.200		4.475		2.277		-4.550
Jaguars	29.000	24.000		26.500		2.852		-5.000

Observations:

• Chargers, sadly, are now playing as badly as you think
• Cowboys, Chiefs, 9ers and Ravens aren't playing as well as we'd like to think
• Why does this seem to happen to the Chargers each week. Don't understimate the Jaguars, they're playing better than you think.
• Even though they're on their 14th QB in a week, the Texans are still playing much better than you realize.

Sources

• ESPN
• Fox
• CBS
• USA Today
• Sports Illustrated
• ProFootballTalk
• NFL.com
• SportingNews
• Pro Football Weekly
• National Football Post
• SB Nation
• Reddit
• Football Outsiders
• Team Efficiency
• Team Rankings
• Sagarin
• BeatGraphs