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Week 1 Fantasy Football Insight/Guesswork

The draft for the BFTB Fantasy Football league was on Monday, and here's what I ended up with:

QB: Philip Rivers, Chad Henne
RB: Adrian Peterson, Darren McFadden, Ahmad Bradshaw
WR: Reggie Wayne, Percy Harvin, Dez Bryant, Mike Williams (Seattle reclamation project)
TE: Brent Celek, Heath Miller
K: Nate Kaeding
DEF: Cowboys, Bengals

Not great, not terrible. I'm not crazy about my defenses or my RBs, but they all have potential so in week 1 I'll say I'm happy. The great news today is that I have two guys on my team that play tonight, which gives me plenty of reason to watch the game and root for a high-powered Vikings offense to show up.

After the jump, I'll take a look around the league and tell you who will have big fantasy days in Week 1.

Running Backs

Adrian Peterson (Yay!)
In a playoff matchup against the Saints last season, A.D. ran for 122 yards and 3 TDs. He looked untouchable. Although Peterson has a history of getting beat-up as the season goes along, he should be fresh and ready to show himself on a prime time stage again tonight.

Chris Johnson (Duh)
I know Chris Johnson is probably going to be a fantasy pick each week, but this week he gets to go up against an Oakland Raiders defense that was one of the league's worst (29th, to be exact) at stopping the run. While I like the addition of Rolando McClain to the middle of Oakland's D, his biggest weakness (a lack of speed) might rear its ugly head in week 1.



Kyle Orton
Yes, that Kyle Orton. Do you remember how good he was in the beginning of 2009? Every game it seemed like he threw for 250 yards, 1 or 2 TDs, and no INTs. Word around Broncos camp is he looks great this year, and with Knowshon Moreno and Correll Buckhalter limping into the season I wouldn't be surprised to see Orton chucking the call all over the place against a weak Jacksonville secondary.

Matt Ryan
Don't count me as one of those people that sees big things from the Steelers this season. That is an old team that already has injury problems, and they'll be going with their 3rd string QB for the first few weeks of the season. Uh-oh. This one could get out of hand in a hurry. I think Matt Ryan is on a mission this season to get himself back in that conversation as one of the top 5 QBs in the league, and I think he'll have a good game to kick things off.


Wide Receivers

Chad Ochocinco
I know this might not mean anything, because of Bill Belichick, but the Patriots secondary again looks pretty terrible and their pass-rush didn't get any better. Against a younger QB, that might not matter because Bill can confuse them with different looks. Against Carson Palmer, it should be a weakness.

Santana Moss
This guy is my sleeper pick of the season. He's a burner who hasn't had a good and strong-armed quarterback since....ever? Now he's hooked up with a potential Hall of Fame QB who's specialty is sending missiles 50 yards downfield to his receivers. This is exactly the type of QB, and offense, that he's always needed. He could have a big, big year. The Cowboys have been really good against McNabb in the last few years, because they can put a lot of pressure on him, but their secondary isn't that great. If Shanahan can out-gameplan Andy Reid (and I'm sure he'd love to do just that), there could be 2-3 long TD passes to Moss.


and for those that are interested, here's my Week 1 starting lineup:

QB: Rivers (@KC)
RB: McFadden (@TEN), Peterson (@NO)
WR: Ochocinco (@NE), Wayne (@HOU)
RB-WR: Harvin (@NO)
TE: Celek (GB)
K: Kaeding (@KC)
DEF: Cowboys (@WSH)

Wow, I didn't realize that Celek was the only player playing at home this week. That's probably a bad omen.


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