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Predicting the Score by the Numbers

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It seems like each week the prediction is getting a little closer to the actual score.  To see what I came up with this week click below.

So far this season the Browns have score on average 11.1 points per game and have allowed an average of 25.4 points per game.   The Browns opponents have scored 21.9 points and allowed 19.6 points per game on average thus far this season.   If you compare these two sets of numbers you can see that the Browns have scored 8.5 fewer points per game than their opponent's average and have allowed 3.5 more points per game than their opponent's average.

Points For

Points Against

Browns

11.1

25.4

Vikings

31.1

18.5

Broncos

17.8

17.2

Ravens

23.4

17.1

Bengals

21.0

15.8

Bills

16.9

22.0

Steelers

22.5

18.5

Packers

26.9

19.5

Bears

19.6

23.7

Ravens

23.4

17.1

Lions

17.5

30.5

Bengals

21.0

15.8

Average

21.9

19.6

Adjustment

-8.5

3.5

The Chargers have scored 28.4 points per game and allowed 19.9 points per game on average so far this season, while their opponents have scored an average of 19.1 points per game and allowed 21.6 points per game on average thus far in the season.  If you compare these two sets of numbers you can see that the Chargers are scoring 6.8 more points per game than their opponent's average and are giving up 0.8 more points per game than their opponent's average.

Points For

Points Against

Chargers

28.4

19.9

Raiders

10.5

23.5

Ravens

23.4

17.1

Dolphins

23.3

25.0

Steelers

22.5

18.5

Broncos

17.8

17.2

Chiefs

16.6

25.6

Raiders

10.5

23.5

Giants

24.7

23.7

Eagles

26.6

20.7

Broncos

17.8

17.2

Chiefs

16.6

25.6

Average

19.1

21.6

Adjustment

6.8

0.8

If you take the numbers from above and apply them to this week's game you get the following:

 

Browns

The Browns score on average 11.1 points, the Chargers allow 0.8 points more than average, the Browns should score 11.9 points.

The Browns allow on average 25.4 points, the Chargers score on average 6.8 points higher than average, the Browns should allow 32.2 points.

 

Chargers

The Chargers score on average 28.4 points, the Browns allow 3.5 more points than average, Chargers should score 31.9 points

The Chargers allow on average 19.9 points, the Browns score on average 8.5 fewer points than their opponents average, Chargers should allow 11.4 points.

Points For

Points Against

Chargers

31.9

11.4

Browns

11.9

32.2

 

If we average the points scored and against together for each team you get the following score:

Chargers 32

Browns 12

Go Bolts!