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Predicting the Score by the Numbers

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Well my predicted score was a bit off last week but at least I got the winner right this time, yay improvement!  I think this week’s prediction looks a little more realistic.  Happy Turkeyday everyone!

 

 

So far this season the Chiefs have scored 16.9 points per game and allowed 23.9 points per game thus far.   The Chiefs opponents have scored 20.6 points and allowed 20.6 points per game on average thus far.   If you compare these two sets of numbers you can see that the Chiefs have scored 3.7 fewer points per game than the average and have allowed 3.3 more points per game than the average.

Points For

Points Against

Chiefs

16.9

23.9

Ravens

23.7

17.1

Raiders

10.8

23.4

Eagles

26.6

20.4

Giants

26.6

23.5

Cowboys

23.1

17.5

Redskins

14.6

17.8

Chargers

26.9

20.5

Jaguars

19.9

23.5

Raiders

10.8

23.4

Steelers

23.1

18.4

Average

20.6

20.6

Adjustment

-3.7

3.3

The Chargers have scored 26.9 points per game and allowed 20.5 points per game on average thus far, while their opponents up until this point have scored an average of 19.7points per game and allowed 21.1 points per game on average thus far.  If you compare these two sets of numbers you can see that the Chargers are scoring 5.8 more points per game than the average and are giving up 0.8 more points per game than the average.

Points For

Points Against

Chargers

26.9

20.5

Raiders

10.8

23.4

Ravens

23.7

17.1

Dolphins

24.2

24.4

Steelers

23.1

18.4

Broncos

17

18.3

Chiefs

16.9

23.9

Raiders

10.8

23.4

Giants

26.6

23.5

Eagles

26.6

20.4

Broncos

17

18.3

Average

19.7

21.1

Adjustment

5.8

0.8

If you take the numbers from above and apply them to this week's game you get the following:

Chargers

The Chargers score on average 26.9 points, the Chiefs allow 3.3 more points than average, Chargers should score 30.2 points

The Chargers allow on average 20.5 points, the Chiefs score on average 3.7 points less than average, Chargers should allow 16.8 points.

Chiefs

The Chiefs score on average 16.9 points, the Chargers allow 0.8 points more than average, the Chiefs should score 17.7 points.

The Chiefs allow on average 23.9 points , the Chargers score on average 5.8 points higher than average, the Chiefs should allow 29.7 points.

 

Points For

Points Against

Chargers

30.2

16.9

Chiefs

17.7

29.7

If we average the points scored and against together for each team you get the following score:

Chargers 30
Chiefs 17

Hmmm this prediction actually looks like it could be a bit closer than the last two I guess we shall see.  Happy Thanksgiving everyone!