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Predicting the Score by the Numbers

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Well there is good news and there is bad news, the bad news is my prediction didn't do so well last week but since the Chargers won the good news is that my prediction didn't do so well last week. Click below to see what I came up with this week against the Broncos.

Major Stat Geek Warning Below!!!

So far this season the Broncos have scored 18.6 points per game and allowed 16.8 points per game thus far.   The Broncos opponents have scored 20.4 points and allowed 19.6 points per game on average thus far.   If you compare these two sets of numbers you can see that the Broncos have scored 1 fewer point per game than the average and have allowed 3.6 points fewer per game than the average.

Points For

Points Against

Broncos

18.6

16.8

Bengals

22

16.3

Browns

8.7

25

Raiders

9.8

24.1

Cowboys

24.9

18.8

Patriots

28.8

16.7

Chargers

26.3

22.4

Ravens

24.7

17.1

Steelers

23

17.4

Redskins

15.6

19

Average

20.4

19.6

Adjustment

-1.0

-3.6

The Chargers have scored 26.3 points per game and allowed 22.4 points per game on average thus far, while their opponents up until this point have scored an average of 19.8 points per game and allowed 21.3 points per game on average thus far.  If you compare these two sets of numbers you can see that the Chargers are scoring 5 more points per game than the average and are giving up 2.6 points per game than the average.

Points For

Points Against

Chargers

26.3

22.4

Raiders

9.8

24.1

Ravens

24.7

17.1

Dolphins

24.2

25.2

Steelers

23

17.4

Broncos

18.6

16.8

Chiefs

15.8

23.9

Raiders

9.8

24.1

Giants

25.8

22.7

Eagles

26.9

20.4

Average

19.8

21.3

Adjustment

5.0

2.6

If you take the numbers from above and apply them to this week’s game you get the following:

Chargers

The Chargers score on average 26.3 points, the Broncos allow 3.6 fewer points than average, Chargers should score 22.7 points

The Chargers allow on average 22.4 points, the Broncos score on average 1 point less than average, Chargers should allow 21.3 points.

Broncos

The Broncos score on average 18.6 points, the Chargers allow 2.5 points more than average, the Broncos should score 21.1 points.

The Broncos allow on average 16.8 points , the Chargers score on average 5 points higher than average, the Broncos should allow 21.8 points.

Team            Pts For     Pts Against
Chargers       22.7              21.3
Broncos         21.2             21.8

If we average the points scored and against together for each team you get the following score:

Chargers 22
Broncos 21