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NFL Power Rankings

2011 NFL Power Rankings Analysis: Week 18 - The Final Word

HATERS GONNA HATE

I apologize for the late posting of this column, and for not doing one last week. With all the holiday festivites and family visiting us, I didn't have much time to focus on the column as I usually do. Sadly, this is likely to be the last Power Rankings post for the season. I may do one following the draft, I'll just have to see how many sites put out their rankings.

Well, what an eventful week in Chargers land. Or more accurately, an uneventful week as so far there's really only been one major change on the team. We're sure there's more change coming, but we just don't know when or how.

Based on what fans in San Diego are saying, as well as the various pundits, you'd think this team was in shambles, on the verge of collapse. There are screams demanding wholesale changes and overhaul to this team. As you're going to see, things aren't quite as bad as it may seem. For instance, according to Football Outsiders, the Chargers still have a 7th-ranked offense. But this year their defense dropped to 29th. Their Special Teams improved to 23rd, but at just a -1.2% rating, they're not far from being average.

The biggest problem this year was with the defense, and the team has already begun addressing that with the firing of Greg Manusky and promotion of John Pagano. Now let's hope AJ focuses even more on the defense in this year's draft, specifically on the front 7. Both Norv and AJ are skating on thin ice this season, so let's all hope they find a way to bring this team to glory again. What's that saying? Winning cures all?

Notable Quotes

I have to say, I was disappointed this week as there wasn't really anything worth quoting this week; it's all stuff we've heard before. The one good quote I found was actually by a commenter on Reddit. Reddit user atrollsatan broke the season down for us and offers up this nice summary of the NFL:

Playoff Teams

Awesome Offense: Packers, Saints, Patriots

Awesome Defense: Ravens, 49ers, Steelers

Explosive Wildcard: Lions, Giants, Falcons, Bengals

One Dimensional: Broncos, Texans

Coulda Shoulda Woulda

Eagles, Cowboys, Jets, Titans, Chargers

Unjust Injuries

Raiders, Bears, Chiefs, Bills

Hopeful Late Surge

Cardinals, Seahawks, Dolphins, Panthers

Still Rebuilding

Redskins, Browns, Vikings

No Hope

Jaguars, Buccaneers, Rams

OH GOD WHY

Colts

Division Averages

Division Avg Ranking
AFC North 12.4833
NFC North 14.4000
NFC South 15.4167
NFC East 15.6333
AFC East 16.3167
AFC West 18.3333
NFC West 18.6000
AFC South 20.8167

Surprises

Team Week 1 Average Week 18 Average Difference
SF 25.667 4.000 21.667
CIN 30.778 10.222 20.556
DEN 29.000 14.556 14.444
CAR 30.889 22.889 8.000
DET 15.667 8.000 7.667

Disappointments

Team Week 1 Average Week 18 Average Difference
IND 11.778 31.444 -19.666
TB 12.333 29.667 -17.334
STL 17.667 31.556 -13.889
SDG 7.000 16.111 -9.111
NYJ 7.333 16.222 -8.889

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2011 NFL Power Rankings Analysis: Week 16

A Chargers hat.

The Chargers are on a roll, eh? Everything the Chargers needed to happen this past week, did happen. Their playoff hopes are up to a staggering 14.67%. Could this be the start of another magical run by Norv and the boys? Who knows, but it still would be nice to see the Broncos continue to be dominated by other teams; let's hope that trend continues too.

With an absolutely dominating performance against the Ravens — dubbed the "Best team in teh AFC" and "Best Defense in the League" by more than a few pundits — you'd think the Chargers would be skyrocketing up the charts, wouldn't you? Well, I wouldn't call it skyrocketing, but climbing an average of 3.1 spots in the subjective rankings this week, they are certainly heading upwards.

Also of note this week, the Chargers have fallen off the "Disappointments" list; they've been replaced by the Chicago Bears. But I suppose you're going to underperform a bit when you lose your starting quarterback.

Notable Quotes

Team Efficiency

Every AFC West team is still in playoff contention, and San Diego's recent surge has them ranked the highest out of the bunch. Oakland isn't far behind, but division leader Denver is ranked 25th this week. In our hearts, Denver is clearly number one.

Sports Illustrated

This Chargers late-season run should only underline how much San Diego underachieved during the course of its six-game losing streak, not serve to put a happy face on a 9-7 near-miss and protect the status quo. This is the Chargers team that should have shown up all season, not just at the beginning and the end.

SBNation

Here come the Chargers. After apparently taking half the season off, they're playing like they usually do in December. The question is whether it's come too late.

Division Averages

Division Avg Ranking
AFC North 12.8750
NFC North 15.0313
AFC East 15.3906
NFC South 15.7344
NFC East 16.7500
AFC West 17.0625
NFC West 17.7188
AFC South 21.4375

Surprises

Team Week 1 Average Week 16 Average Difference
SF 25.667 3.800 21.867
DEN 29.000 10.300 18.700
CIN 30.778 12.700 18.078
SEA 24.889 16.600 8.289
CAR 30.889 23.400 7.489

Disappointments

Team Week 1 Average Week 16 Average Difference
IND 11.778 31.800 -20.022
TB 12.333 28.800 -16.467
STL 17.667 31.200 -13.533
PHI 6.222 18.000 -11.778
CHI 13.889 21.700 -7.811

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2011 NFL Power Rankings from Around the Web: Week 15

"WTF IS THIS?!"

Well would you look at that: the Chargers have strung together a nice little two-game winning streak. What's more, they're actually blowing-out the teams they're supposed to; and the rankings this week reflect the glimmer of hope in San Diego.

However, enough about these underperformers. The big story this week is TEBOW. You think it's bad living in San Diego having to hear about him? Try actually living in Denver. As you'll see shortly, everybody and their mother has hitched their wagon to Tebow; however, the stats don't quite back it up. Maybe all the objective sites need to add in a metric for "Tebow Factor" or something along those lines, because frankly, the Broncos still aren't that great when just looking at their performances objectively.

Ahh crap, even I can't get away from talking about him. Okay, back to the stats. This week, the Chargers take on the Baltimore Ravens. Going by the rankings alone, this will be their biggest test since playing the Packers, and a bigger test than when they played New England. The Chargers are climbing the rankings again, after bottoming out in the upper-20s. After it looked like the AFC West was going to be a two-team race between the Raiders and Broncos, well now the Chargers and Raiders appear to be going in opposite directions. There is still hope, but it's going to be ridiculously frustrating from many different angles if the Chargers end up winning out, but miss the playoffs.

Notable Quotes

ESPN

Back to life, but it's likely too late for them to salvage the season and prevent overhaul moves.

Fox Sports

Believe it or not, the Chargers still have a realistic shot at making the playoffs. With the Broncos playing their toughest opponent since Tim Tebow took over as starting QB, and the Raiders' continuous downward spiral, don't count out the Chargers. It will be a long shot, but it's not uncommon for the Chargers to find a way to pull this type of scenario off.

Sports Illustrated

Sorry Philip Rivers and your fellow Norv-men. You woke up at least one week too late this time. Looks like you've all been Tebowed. But join the crowd. And hey, it's almost a status symbol at this point.

On to the numbers!

Division Averages

Division Avg Ranking
AFC North 12.0938
NFC North 14.2813
AFC East 15.0313
NFC South 16.1875
NFC East 17.9688
AFC West 18.1250
AFC South 19.0469
NFC West 19.2656

Wow, even with the Colts and Jaguars in the same division, the AFC South couldn't quite match the NFC West's futility.

Surprises

Team Week 1 Average Week 15 Average Difference
DEN 29.000 9.400 19.600
SF 25.667 6.200 19.467
CIN 30.778 15.600 15.178
TEN 23.556 13.800 9.756
CAR 30.889 23.900 6.989

With the 49ers slipping a bit lately, Denver takes over the top spot as the biggest surprise thus far this season.

Disappointments

Team Week 1 Average Week 15 Average Difference
IND 11.778 32.000 -20.222
TB 12.333 27.900 -15.567
PHI 6.222 20.800 -14.578
STL 17.667 31.000 -13.333
SDG 7.000 17.800 -10.800

Woot! The Chargers have almost fallen off the "disappointments" list.

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2011 NFL Power Rankings from Around the Web: Week 14

Neat.

Hey, the Chargers won! The last time that happened, we hadn't even celebrated Columbus day yet. It may have been against the lowly Jaguars of Jacksonville, but there's one steadfast rule about winning: feels good, man.

Okay, there are those of us around here that think winning is the last the these Chargers should be doing. We need to climb the draft board as much as possible at this point, pride be damned. I don't really fall into either camp, I can certainly see the merit in throwing in the towl and making the best of a crappy situation. On the flip side, I like to win.

Anyway, what's interesting this week with regards to our beloved Chargers, despite the fact that they blew out the Jaguars, some of the subjective rankers still dropped them in their rankings &emdash; sometimes as much as 4 spots as in the case in CBS's rankings. How does one explain that? Overall, they did climb the rankings, albeit slightly. They did climb the Objective rankings a bit more.

Notable Quotes

Fox Sports

The Chargers finally played like the team I predicted to win the Super Bowl, but let's not forget it was against the Jaguars. Inside the locker room, they are still hoping to win out and make the playoffs, but that is a long shot, even for the Chargers.

SBNation

We've seen the Chargers at 4-7 turn around and qualify for the playoffs. Just sayin', crazier things have happened.

Sports Illustrated

It doesn't seem remotely fair that the Chargers could have unearthed another receiving weapon named Vincent. I mean, Vincent Jackson would be plenty enough for most teams, but now San Diego has rookie Vincent Brown to pair with him. Brown, a third-round pick out of San Diego State, has come on of late, catching 14 passes for 256 yards and a pair of touchdowns in his past five games. Two big-play receiving Vincents just begs for a nickname of some sort.

Division Averages

Division Avg Ranking
AFC North 12.0441
AFC East 14.1618
NFC North 14.3529
NFC South 15.7353
AFC West 17.3235
NFC East 18.9118
NFC West 19.5147
AFC South 19.9559

Surprises

Team Week 1 Average Week 14 Average Difference
SF 25.667 4.083 21.584
DEN 29.000 10.083 18.917
CIN 30.778 14.000 16.778
TEN 23.556 13.500 10.056
OAK 20.889 13.417 7.472

Disappointments

Team Week 1 Average Week 14 Average Difference
IND 11.778 32.000 -20.222
PHI 6.222 23.917 -17.695
STL 17.667 31.000 -13.333
SDG 7.000 20.083 -13.083
TB 12.333 24.917 -12.584

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2011 NFL Power Rankings from Around the Web: Week 13

"Hey! HEY GUYS! Remember when we used to be good?"

Everyone have a good Thanksgiving holiday last week? All rested up and fattened? Excellent. It's likely that none of you noticed I didn't do my usual Power Rankings from Around the Web post last week. My in-laws were visiting us so I was a bit preoccupied, not to mention you all were preoccupied and wouldn't have seen it anyway.

So, 2011 is turning into a hell of a season for our beloved Chargers, isn't it? I couldn't tell you the last time the Chargers played this poorly and were ranked this low. Maybe 2003? 2005? We sure got used to being a top-12 team and perennial playoff contenders. The Chargers continue their tumble down the rankings, while the Raiders and Broncos are climbing. Who saw that coming?

In fact, it's that very question that led me to crunch the numbers and come up with a new chart: Most Surprising and Disappointing Teams. I took the Subjective Averages from Week 1 for all 32 teams and compared their Subjective Averages this week to see which teams are performing better and worse than they were expected leading into this season. You can find that chart after the jump.

In the meantime, let's take a look at some notable quotes this week and also how the various divisions stack up.

Notable Quotes

Fox Sports

So I picked the Chargers to win the Super Bowl. I was wrong.

Sports Illustrated

Under the heading of stuff you just can't make up, I'm sure there are a thousand lines that flood to mind when you think of the sideline bathroom break taken by Chargers kicker Nick Novak and the state of San Diego's down-the-toilet season, but I'm going to take the high road and resist them all. Or most of them.

ProFootballTalk

  1. Cardinals (No. 26; 4-7): This team may not be as far away from contending as it appears.
  2. Chiefs (No. 22; 4-7): This team may not be as far away from contending as it appears.
  3. Chargers (No. 23; 4-7): This team may not be as far away from contending as it appears.
  4. Dolphins (No. 24; 3-8): This team may not be as far away from contending as it appears.

Division Averages

Division Avg Ranking
AFC North 11.7353
NFC North 12.8235
AFC East 15.1176
NFC South 15.7059
NFC East 16.6324
AFC West 18.5588
AFC South 20.3824
NFC West 21.0441

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2011 NFL Power Rankings from Around the Web: Week 11

Le sigh.

Well, not that I'm calling myself a prognasticator, but a few weeks ago the Chargers were significantly overranked when it came to the Subjective vs Objective rankings. I said one of two things would happen: they'd play well and the objective ratings would rise eventually, or they would fall down in line with their objective rankings. Sadly, the latter happened; are we all that shocked?

This week, the Chargers are the definition of mediocre: not really that great, kind of stuck in the middle. They're still in the thick of it, and get to play against Raiders again, in the last game of the season. Hopefully we'll have an offensive line again by then.

I'm going to forego the Notable quotes section this week, as really, there's nothing more to say than we don't already know. Also, I'm not posting my observations much because the charts speak for themselves this week.

Division Averages

Division Avg Ranking
NFC North 10.9333
AFC North 12.8333
AFC East 15.2333
NFC East 16.4500
NFC South 16.4667
AFC South 19.6833
AFC West 20.0000
NFC West 20.4000

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2011 NFL Power Rankings from Around the Web: Week 10

"Phil, the Chargers are now ranked right around 17th-place in this week's rankings. Any chance you and Billy want to change numbers for now?"

This week is just flying by, I can't believe it's already time to write up everyone's favorite column. And not to mention, we have Chargers football to watch again tomorrow already! Awesome.

So how are we feeling about the Chargers' season now that we're half way through it? Kinda medicore, right? Well you're not far off. Ever since coming off the bye, the Chargershave been consistently sliding down the rankings. For most the season, their Objective Ranking has been lower than their Subjective Rankings. Well, that discrepency has been corrected, although in the wrong direction for us fans. The best thing you could say about this Chargers team right now is they're about average (if not slightly worse).

Division Average Rankings

We're going to try something a little new this time. I'm going to include a little chart that shows the average ranking the team in a particular division has. This should be a good way to show which are the strongest and weakest divisions in the league. You'll be please to know the AFC West is not the weakest division in the NFL, and not even the weakest AFC division. That said, stop calling it "AFC Worst!"

Division Average Ranking
NFC North 10.3194
AFC North 11.8056
NFC South 14.8333
AFC East 15.0278
NFC East 15.5694
AFC West 20.4861
AFC South 21.4722
NFC West 22.4861

Notable Quotes

Fox Sports

The Chargers got dealt a bad hand having to play three games in 11 days. They are missing some key people in RB Ryan Mathews, WR Malcom Floyd and DE Shaun Phillips, but fortunately for them they are in the right division to be dealing with midseason struggles. A win against the Raiders on Thursday night will make for a quick rebound with the weekend to rest.

CBS Sports

Three consecutive losses has them reeling, and now they have a short week to get ready for the Raiders. They have to quit imploding.

Sports Illustrated

Amid all the questions and hand-wringing over Philip Rivers' disappointing and puzzling season, why haven't we heard more in the way of answers and potential fixes from Norv Turner, with his long track record of quarterback coaching and offensive expertise? Isn't that part of Turner's forte, the passing game and how to get it going? So Norv, a lonely Chargers nation turns its eyes to you.

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2011 NFL Power Rankings from Around the Web: Week 9

Here you go, Richard.

That one stung, didn't it? No, that's not what she said, I'm talking about this week's loss to the Chiefs. Something is seriously off with this Chargers team, and no one seems to be able to put their finger on it. Was it the shortened off-season? Is it the new coaches? Did the players all work out incorrectly during the lockout? Who knows?

This was a certainly a week of shake-up. Plenty of surprise victories and losses — the Chargers notwithstanding in that group. On average, the Chargers dropped about 6 spots this week compared to last week. I can only imagine the immense cluster of dumbfounded pundits and fans alike should the Chargers pull off a victory against the Packers on Sunday.

Notable Quotes

Fox Sports

Philip Rivers doesn't look like the Rivers we are used to. After Monday night's OT loss to the Chiefs, he leads the NFL in interceptions thrown (11) and the Chargers are in a three-way tie for the divisional lead. Too bad for them, they face the Packers, while both the Raiders and Chiefs have favorable matchups in Week 9.

Sports Illustrated

If the Chargers thought the fourth-quarter meltdown at the Jets was painful, how to describe the late-game self-destruction in Kansas City Monday night? The Halloween cliches must have been flying fast and furiously in the press box. San Diego's lack of killer instinct is still readily apparent, and now here come back-to-back short-week games against the powerful Packers and the talented Raiders. The Chargers' season is officially on the brink.

Reddit

The AFC West Champions asserted their dominance tonight. To look at the numbers, you would think that San Diego was the better team, however that was not the case. Play calling has become predictable, too many injuries on key players, and a quarterback who frankly is a shadow of himself.

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