Just over a year ago, I asked for the good readers here at Bolts From the Blue to give an approval rating on the Chargers runningback. To my surprise, Mike Tolbert ended up with the highest approval rating of any player that I did an approval rating post for. That includes Philip Rivers. A year later some things have changed.

The first thing that's changed is his contract status. Last year he was a restricted free agent, this year he'll be an unrestricted free agent. Because of the lockout teams didn't even get a chance to bid on restricted free agents last offseason, but this year Tolbert's services will be offered up to the highest bidder (barring a lucrative contract extension offered by the Chargers before March 13). So, one could interpret the poll that follows as a way to say, "Yes, I approve of the way Mike Tolbert is handing his job as a Chargers Runningback and I'd like to have him back next year."

The other thing that changed is his production. In 2010, Tolbert and fellow RB Ryan Mathews both had 5 fumbles on the season. This year he cut that down to only 2 fumbles over 175 touches vs. those 5 over 207 touches in 2010. Those touches numbers also show that he was used less. However, it resulted in 923 yards in 2011 vs. 951 the previous season, which isn't that big of a difference. DVOA-wise that came out to -0.8% for 2011 vs. -1.9% in 2011. Those negative numbers look bad, but considering that he's a backup RB, a special teams standout and the best pass backfield pass protector, it's not bad to be a little below average with the ball in his hands. Plus, sometimes that's not all his fault, it's 3rd and 10 and the only successful outcome is to get those 10 yards, he's being set up to fail more times than not.

Offensively, Tolbert is not a standout. He's solid. He does make some special teams tackles on kick coverage and he's able to do pass protection. But, when RBs that have back-to-back years with double digit touchdown numbers and almost 1,000 combined yards per season as a primary backup, they tend to expect a big raise. Can the approval rating stay as high when we consider the idea of paying Mike Tolbert a heftier wage?

Mike Tolbert

#35 / Fullback / San Diego Chargers

Height: 5-9

Weight: 243

Born: Nov 23, 1985

College: Coastal Carolina

All VOA, DVOA, YAR and DYAR statistical values are developed, calculated and reported by Football Outsiders. Their explanation can be found here.

When Takeo Spikes joined the Chargers most, at best, knew a few things about him: 1. He has a big neck, 2. He's a Linebacker, 3. He was on the 49ers with Greg Manusky the previous season, 4. He's never made the playoffs in his entire career, 5. He has a GIANT neck. Now that he's been a Charger for a year you've probably formed some other opinions of him. Recently, I listed him on the potential cuts list due to his age and the small cap hit that it would take to release him. Some feel that's just, especially because he was one of Greg Manusky's guys and Manusky has been shown the door. Others feel that would be throwing the baby out with the bath water. Which, in case you didn't know, throwing out babies is a bad thing. (Hey, Takeo, that might make for a good PSA campaign)

Let's get some numbers out of the way and show what sort of stats Takeo put up for the 2011 season:

Takeo Spikes

#51 / Linebacker / San Diego Chargers

Height: 6-2

Weight: 242

Born: Dec 17, 1976

College: Auburn

One thing that stands out in those numbers is the lack of impact plays. The sacks, interceptions and forced fumbles totals are all extremely low or nonexistent. Yet, he was involved in plenty of plays as those tackles numbers would indicate. None of that is conclusive one way or another given that in any defense different players will have different roles, including leadership roles (which is a role Spikes takes on). Still, you'd feel like there'd be a few more big plays in the mix.

Other notes on Spikes are that he suffered a concussion this season, but seemingly didn't let that his ability to play and got back on the field quickly. He was also a vocal supporter of Norv Turner when the Head Coach's job status was in question. You can either see that as him foolishly backing the status quo or taking a leadership stance for someone he believes in.

After three consecutive impressive victories, some people are starting to wonder if maybe we got ahead of ourselves a month ago when we called for Norv Turner and A.J. Smith to be fired "no matter what". Maybe the circumstances were simply wrong and now they're being made right.

Here's what the 2011 San Diego Chargers have had to deal with:

• Losing their highest paid defensive player (Luis Castillo) in Week 1.
• Losing their Kicker (Nate Kaeding) in Week 1.
• Losing 3 Linebackers that were expected to contribute (Jonas Mouton, Stephen Cooper, Larry English) early on in the season.
• Losing their Pro Bowl LT (Marcus McNeill) and Pro Bowl LG (Kris Dielman).
• Losing their starting SS and key offseason free agent acquisition (Bob Sanders) early on.
• Having their Pro Bowl TE (Antonio Gates) miss games or play at half-speed (without practice) due to injury.
• Having their top two WRs (Vincent Jackson, Malcom Floyd) miss games and plenty of practice time due to injury.
• Having their Pro Bowl QB (Philip Rivers) go through the worst 6-game stretch of his career without any real explanation.
• Having a brand new Defensive Coordinator and new Special Teams coach, without the benefit of an offseason to install their schemes.

The question of the day is whether the San Diego Chargers should wait until the end of the season to fire Head Coach Norv Turner. I'd like to try and take emotion out of this decision and see if it would make sense to have him play out the season.

The first and most obvious reason for not firing Norv when the team is 4-7, or even 4-8, is that he's made the playoffs from 4-8 once before. Is it likely to happen again? Of course not but, if there's anyone suited to turn around a floundering team and have them win their last 4-5 games to capture the AFC West Division crown, it would appear that man is Turner.

A second reason for waiting for the end of the season might be just the opposite. If the team is as bad as it has appeared to be this season, the front office may be cheering with each loss and dreaming about their top 10 draft pick. Remember that this is the same front office that let Mike Riley stay after a 1-15 season that then netted them Drew Brees, LaDainian Tomlinson and Tim Dwight. They also then let Riley lose 9 straight games to end his final season as Head Coach, turning that 5-11 record into Quentin Jammer, Toniu Fonoti, Reche Caldwell and Ben Leber.

The only reason for firing Norv mid-season is if there's someone else on staff that you'd like a good look at as Head Coach, like Rich Bisaccia. If the Chargers have already decided that they need a fresh start, firing everyone and bringing in an outside guy that can build his own staff the way that he sees fit, then all they would be doing is handing more responsibility to someone who hasn't done much with what he's had thusfar this season.

Also, there's another reason they might not hand the reigns over to someone like Bisaccia. Interim Head Coaches don't often get demoted back to their former position. If you promote Bisaccia, NFL protocol dictates that in 2012 he'll either be the HC or he'll be gone. With a guy that hasn't yet been with the team a full year, that's a tough pill to swallow.

Here at Bolts from the Blue, we don't put enough emphasis on the fan confidence poll. We should, though, because it's a good gauge to see exactly when the spirit of the Chargers' fans break and when they still believe in miracles.

After the jump, you'll find the fan confidence poll ready to be filled out along with a line graph documenting how much faith the San Diego fans have lost since the loss to the Jets and the coinciding injuries to Shaun Phillips and Kris Dielman. Fill it out with how confident you are, especially with Dielman now on IR to go along with injuries to Marcus McNeill and Louis Vasquez.

I know a "fan confidence poll" is a rather vague term, so let's go with how much faith you have that the Chargers will make the playoffs in 2011.

In the comments, state how you voted (unless you'd like to keep it private) along with why you voted that way. For instance, "I put 8 because of Matt Cassel and Tim Tebow. Rivers can take control of the division quickly." or "I put 2 because I have absolutely no faith in Norv Turner, this coaching staff or what remains of this roster that's been decimated by injury."

Got it? Good. The jump is the link right below this sentence, for those that always wonder what we're referencing.

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As a way of trying to gauge the in-season fan reactions I'm re-posting this poll. Nothing has really changed since the end of last season except for a couple of games that either reinforced your opinions or perhaps tipped you off a fence. So, let me first reiterate some of Norv Turner's Charger history and stats then let you vote.

Norv Turner was hired as head coach of the Chargers in 2007. He inherited a team that went 14-2 the year before, but was knocked out of the playoffs after only 1 game. As the Chargers head coach he's had the following records:

The following can also be noted during his tenure:

• Came in with a reputation for a developing quarterbacks and has overseen the growth of Philip Rivers.
• The running game has gone from one of the best in the league to a league average (and sometime bottom of the league) unit.
• Defenses have been inconsistent.
• Coached the team to the second winningest season in Chargers history.
• Oversaw a team that had one of the worst special teams units in the history of football.
• Has as many wins in the playoffs as the previous 7 Chargers Head Coaches combined.
• Offense has been in the top 5 in points scored every year.
• Defense has been in the top 15 in points allowed every year.
• Offense has been top 15 in DVOA every year with top 4 finishes each of the last 3.
• Has never coached the Chargers to a losing season.

Today is the Charger OLB's 30th birthday. That's right 30 years ago today the native New Jerseyan was born in Philadelphia and a little more than 7 years ago he was drafted by the San Diego Chargers. Back then he was a 4-3 DE and four year stand out for the Purdue Boilermakers who ended up going in the 4th round to San Diego.

In his rookie year Shaun Phillips sat behind Steve Foley and Ben Leber, but his talent could not be denied as he picked up 4 sacks in that reserve role. The next year Shawne Merriman took Ben Leber's spot, but Shaun Phillips picked up 7 sacks and filled in well for Foley when the starter missed games due to injury.

The next offseason things got interesting. Shaun Phillips had a run in with the law when he got arrested on a charge of obstructing or resisting an officer in the performance of his duty. Later, his teammate Steve Foley was shot by an off duty officer thereby opening up a starting spot for Shaun, albeit under unfortunate circumstances.

As a starter #95 would go on to post 5 more seasons with 7 or more sacks and twice got to double digits (2006 and 2010). In that same time he only missed 3 games. His consistency has been invaluable for a Chargers defense that can find sacks lacking at times. After his successful 2006 season he signed a 6 year contract extension that runs through the 2012 season. At the end of this last season he earned his first Pro Bowl bid when he replaced Pittsburgh Steeler James Harrison on the AFC squad.

Shaun Phillips

#95 / Linebacker / San Diego Chargers

Height: 6-3

Weight: 250

Born: May 13, 1981

College: Purdue

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In the 3rd round of the 2004 NFL Draft the San Diego Chargers took a fresh faced kicker from the University of Iowa named Nate Kaeding. The 3rd round is awfully high to take a kicker, but the Chargers were getting one with an excellent pedigree. In 2002, as a Junior, he won the Lou Groza award for being the best kicker in college football. In 2003 he led all of college football in field goal accuracy. He also had impressive streak of consecutive field goals for a while and kicked his share of successful long distance strikes. The Chargers may not have used their pick to optimum effectiveness, but they were getting a top prospect at Kicker.

In the regular season, Nate Kaeding has been one of the most accurate field goal kickers in NFL history. He currently is tied with Mike Vanderjagt with an 86.5% field goal make percentage, the highest such percentage in history of the league. He's never finished a year with less than an 80% FG%. In 2009 he finished with a FG% over 90%, which helped him earn a spot on the All Pro First Team. He came close to that in 2006 and made 2nd team All Pro. Both years he was selected to the Pro Bowl and even kicked the game winning field goal for one with 4 seconds remaining on the clock.

Nate Kaeding

#10 / Kicker / San Diego Chargers

Height: 6-0

Weight: 187

Born: Mar 26, 1982

College: Iowa

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