Just over a year ago, I asked for the good readers here at Bolts From the Blue to give an approval rating on the Chargers runningback. To my surprise, Mike Tolbert ended up with the highest approval rating of any player that I did an approval rating post for. That includes Philip Rivers. A year later some things have changed.

The first thing that's changed is his contract status. Last year he was a restricted free agent, this year he'll be an unrestricted free agent. Because of the lockout teams didn't even get a chance to bid on restricted free agents last offseason, but this year Tolbert's services will be offered up to the highest bidder (barring a lucrative contract extension offered by the Chargers before March 13). So, one could interpret the poll that follows as a way to say, "Yes, I approve of the way Mike Tolbert is handing his job as a Chargers Runningback and I'd like to have him back next year."

The other thing that changed is his production. In 2010, Tolbert and fellow RB Ryan Mathews both had 5 fumbles on the season. This year he cut that down to only 2 fumbles over 175 touches vs. those 5 over 207 touches in 2010. Those touches numbers also show that he was used less. However, it resulted in 923 yards in 2011 vs. 951 the previous season, which isn't that big of a difference. DVOA-wise that came out to -0.8% for 2011 vs. -1.9% in 2011. Those negative numbers look bad, but considering that he's a backup RB, a special teams standout and the best pass backfield pass protector, it's not bad to be a little below average with the ball in his hands. Plus, sometimes that's not all his fault, it's 3rd and 10 and the only successful outcome is to get those 10 yards, he's being set up to fail more times than not.

Offensively, Tolbert is not a standout. He's solid. He does make some special teams tackles on kick coverage and he's able to do pass protection. But, when RBs that have back-to-back years with double digit touchdown numbers and almost 1,000 combined yards per season as a primary backup, they tend to expect a big raise. Can the approval rating stay as high when we consider the idea of paying Mike Tolbert a heftier wage?

Mike Tolbert

#35 / Fullback / San Diego Chargers

Height: 5-9

Weight: 243

Born: Nov 23, 1985

College: Coastal Carolina

All VOA, DVOA, YAR and DYAR statistical values are developed, calculated and reported by Football Outsiders. Their explanation can be found here.

The San Diego Chargers are already making changes to the roster for next year, and in a big way. The team appears to be cleaning house. This is evident especially by the moves to not resign Vincent Jackson and the talks of several veteran players being asked to restructure contracts to free up salary cap space. It seems that the Chargers are going all in for next season with some risky roster moves. It seems that the team is willing to take a high risk high reward approach to next season. It should make for an interesting off-season. To give you an idea as to just a few of the changes.....

1) San Diego appears prepared to cut tackle Marcus McNeill. Mcneill also held out in 2010 for a better contract. He has twice been selected to the Pro Bowl, but missed time this year due to a neck injury. He has only played in 20 of the 32 games over the last two years. Expect San Diego to move quickly to sign Jared Gaither to be the starting left tackle (a job he excelled at last season).

2) Vincent Jackson, who has been asking for big money for the last two years, is once again a free agent. The Chargers were not interested in giving him that long-term contract for the last two years and it seems the team doesn't want to at this point either. Too many teams are in need of a high caliber receiver, and the list of free agents makes Jackson much easier to replace. In the end, this seems to be a decision that works out well for both parties. Jackson gets his money, and San Diego keeps valuable cap space as they rebuild the roster. There is certainly still a chance that the Chargers resign him, but I think this marriage is done.

3) Turner officially announced that Darrell Stuckey is expected to start at strong safety next year. Goodbye Steve Gregory. Stuckey stood out on special teams and has earned a shot to start. I am excited to see how this kid performs.

4) Several veterans may be asked to restructure their contracts to free up cap space. This list is rumored to include DE Luis Castillo and ILB Takeo Spikes. If either of these two refuse, and San Diego cuts either of them, the Chargers will have some serious holes to fill. Guard Kris Dielman may have the same situation presented to him. It does look like the team expects Dielman to play, but expect the team to look for some insurance either through the draft or free-agency.

Turner and Smith appear to be going all out to make this team a contender again. The only thing that is for certain is that it will be a busy off-season for the Chargers.

Former Pitt kicker loses radio job after sexist harrangue - Bob Smizik
Some may rememeber Scott Kaplan as a kicker at Pitt in the late 80s and early 90s. He led three mediocre teams in scoring. Kaplan went on to talk radio and carved out a nice career, first on a fledgling national network and later as a host in San Diego with former Chargers star Bill Ray Smith.

NFL mock draft: First-round board fluctuates as Combine approaches - Russ Lande
18. San Diego Chargers: Melvin Ingram, OLB, South Carolina. For the defense to improve, the Chargers must find a way to consistently pressure the quarterback. Ingram fits their scheme perfectly as an outside linebacker.

Randall's Power, Versatility Tempt Chargers - Michael Lombardo (Subscription)
San Diego has selected a defensive lineman in each of the last three drafts. That trend figures to continue, especially if the Chargers lose Antonio Garay and/or Tommie Harris in free agency. One name to watch is Kheeston Randall, the run stopper from Texas. His power and versatility could make him a key addition.

Top 50 free agents: Former top pick Williams is top player on open market - Pete Prisco
7. Vincent Jackson, WR, San Diego Chargers: The Chargers want him back, but at what cost? The indication is that the team won't tag him. He turned 29 in January.

2012 NFL Mock Draft: Final Draft Order Is Set, Colts Are On The Clock - Ryan Van Bibber
The Super Bowl is won, and the season is officially, finally over. Now, we can devote even more attention to the 2012 NFL draft. Our latest 2012 NFL mock draft gets us focused on April.

Vincent Jackson, Marcus McNeill May Not Return To Chargers - Bill Hanstock
The San Diego Chargers are expected to make some significant moves this offseason. To that end, they may be parting ways with wide receiver Vincent Jackson and left tackle Marcus McNeill.

NFL Free Agency 2012: Matt Flynn, Mario Williams Among Marquee Names Hitting The Market - Ryan Van Bibber
Right now, it sounds as though San Diego will forego giving Jackson the franchise tag a second season in a row. They are open to a deal, but have many needs to fill. Jackson's been trying to get out of San Diego for two seasons. Plenty of teams will be wooing him in March.

It's the offseason and, with most teams set with their coaching staffs, we've hit one of the lulls where news isn't breaking and probably won't be breaking for a few weeks. So, what is the NFL media to do? Break opinions!

While Vincent Jackson maintains he would like to stay in San Diego, and GM A.J. Smith is reportedly now "comfortable" exploring a long-term deal, NFL Network insider Jason La Canfora isn't betting on it.

"I don't see any way he's back there," La Canfora said Tuesday on "NFL Total Access."

"The Chargers won't franchise him, they've come out and said that."

Source

I suppose I should throw my opinion out there as well. I think whether or not the San Diego Chargers sign back Jackson rests on the outcome of the Marcus McNeill (and Kris Dielman) situation If one or both of those guys are gone, it frees up some money and just about forces them to use their first-round pick on an offensive lineman. If they're both back, there's no money and the team could try and replace Jackson with a WR in the first round.

Seeing as how McNeill leaving seems downright likely at this point, and the San Diego front office is desperate to be in the playoffs in 2012, I think Jackson returns and gets that long-term, big-money contract that he wants.

Considering the Chargers have said that they will not franchise Jackson, and he'll be the most heavily sought after WR on the market, there's little chance that they could get a discount on VJ. After waiting for so long, the Chargers might find themselves bowing out of an intense bidding war even if they do decide that they'd like to offer him a long-term deal. That's the bad news. The good news is that Jackson will have a contract with someone by time the NFL Draft rolls around, allowing San Diego to plan and draft accordingly.

However, the simple fact that the Chargers have said that they will not franchise Jackson is surprising. They certainly need him in the offense (Vincent Brown is the best WR-that-can-stay-healthy behind him). It leads me to believe that both sides are confident that a deal can be reached. Fingers crossed.

It's time to visit the final 2011 salary numbers. Just like last year, the UT's Kevin Acee has compiled the final salary cap number for every player to take a check from the Chargers this year. You may want to warm up for this exercise by reviewing last year's BFTB salary analysis. This time around, a total of 95 players took in a total of $119,149,368 from Mr. Spanos. It's important to note that Acee's list is effectively a cap-hit list, more than an actual money-spent-in-2011 list. For example, he lists the $836k cap hit from signing bonus pro-ration when Buster Davis was cut. He also notes the cap value for a few veterans such as Randy McMichael, who made more than their cap number due to a veteran exemption for certain players on one year deals (which I learned from Acee via tweet). I've already covered the salaries of injured players extensively here and here, so I'll be mostly sticking to the healthy aspects of the roster this time.

For the overall team spending view, the Chargers ranked roughly #13 on the biggest team spender list (from September). They were right under the Super Bowl champion Giants at #12, and well ahead of the Super Bowl loser Patriots at #19. There were losers in the top tier of spending (Vikings #1, Eagles #2, Rams #5), and very successful teams that spent less than San Diego (Packers #21, 49ers #24, Bengals #30!). Every season there is always evidence that opening up the checkbook does not equal winning. (Check out this pretty cool cost-of-wins chart - it takes a moment to really digest)

Here is Acee's list, in spreadsheet form with position and position group added in. I can't stress enough that I'm lifting his fine work and adding in analysis.

Continue reading this post »

Poll: Which Non-Playoff AFC and NFC Team Have the Best Chance Next Season? - Chris Pokorny
There are several other teams I could dismiss, but here's the one I'll pick: the San Diego Chargers. I don't know what was with them this past year; they should have easily run away with the division. They are always an inconsistent team, but I still think they have a few of the elite players necessary to make a run. Once they get in to the postseason, they can frustrate a team like the Patriots.

Rodney Harrison calls Rob Gronkowski out for dancing after the Super Bowl - Doug Farrar
"I guarantee you this, if Willie McGinest, Tedy Bruschi, Larry Izzo, Richard Seymour or myself had been at that party, [Gronkowski] probably would have got his head rung. There's no reason for that to happen.

Car Problems - Randall Munroe
Or if you replace your car, we'll be happy to set it on fire again so you can take another crack at getting that shot.

Offseason promises to be wild - John Clayton
What they need to do is get back to the playoffs and show progress with the roster. Turner and Smith are paired together. I'm glad they get one more chance. Turner is a great playcaller and has a great quarterback (Philip Rivers). Smith is a good evaluator of talent. Putting a new general manager above Turner would only lead to changes in the roster that might not fit Turner's philosophy. If you are going to bring back Turner, you needed to bring back Smith to see whether they can get back to the playoffs. If they don't, they are gone.

Mailbag: English's days numbered in San Diego? - Bill Williamson
I think this will be English’s last chance in San Diego. He has played poorly and he has been injury prone. San Diego may draft a pass-rusher with the No. 18 pick so the team will move on. But even so, I think English will get one more shot.

2012 NFL Playoffs Predictor - Nik Bonaddio & Keith Goldner
All that said, the Chargers play in an extremely weak division and should be able to come out on top, barring the critical turnovers they committed this season.