There were three parts to the San Diego victory on Sunday: Defense, Special Teams and Darren Sproles.  The stats verify the first, don't touch on the second and seem to disagree with the third.  I'd like to start by explaining why the stats are "wrong" about Darren Sproles.

Sproles ran the ball 23 times on Saturday night for 105 yards (4.6 ypc).  The problem was that he was stopped for gains of three yards or fewer on 14 of those carries and not one of those was in a short yardage situation.  He was stuffed* on eight of his attempts.  Stuffs are almost entirely the fault of the offensive line and to a lesser degree, so are carries of 1-3 yards.  If we remove the stuffs from his line (a reasonable action), Sproles' success rate jumps almost 20% from 34.8% to 53.3% (a most respectable rate and more representative of his play on Saturday).  Also his yards per carry balloons from 4.6 to 6.5.

Sproles' 20% success rate in the passing game is also weighed down by factors outside of his control.  Of his eight failures, five incomplete passes that were thrown at his feet and not actually at him.  If you remove those from his line (a reasonable action), his success rate doubles to a still less than stellar 40%.  Still, his two successes are a big 17 yarder on first down and a huge 13 yarder on third and long which the success rate system doesn't effectively reward.  However, that is balanced out by his goal line fumble which the system doesn't effectively punish.

There is also Sproles' stellar night returning punts and kicks that isn't included at the numbers at all, but that I'm certain you're all aware of.

The defense was excellent.  58.5% is damn good against an average offense.  Against the Colts, is downright incredible.  Things didn't look good early.  On the Colts' second drive of the game they went 85 yards on nine plays (seven of them successful).  Once they hit the red zone, it took the Colts only three plays (all three successful) to punch it into the end zone.  Outside of that second drive of the game, the Chargers' defense had a stop rate of 64.3%.

That drive would be the last time the Colts ran a play in the red zone.

Jamal Williams, Jyles Tucker and Stephen Cooper tied for the team lead in Stops with five.  Igor Olshansky and Eric Weddle tied for fourth with three apiece.  Antoine Cason had two.  Luis Castillo, Tim Dobbins, Jacques Cesaire, Matt Wilhelm, Antonio Cromartie and Quentin Jammer also picked up a Stop.  One really can't say enough about the play of the San Diego defense on Saturday.

We already touched on Special Teams in discussing Sproles' night, but the other star of that unit was Mike Scifres.  I might have to get a Scifres jersey.  He punted six times.  His net average was 51.7.  Tony Dungy called him "the difference in the game."  I have asserted to anyone who would listen that Scifres is the best player on the team and after Saturday, I feel a lot better about that.

And one more stat real quick: the Chargers under Norv Turner are 3-1 in the playoffs.

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With Gates and LT injured you had to wonder how the Chargers would do against a Colts squad riding a nine game winning streak.  The Chargers have been in win or go home mode for five weeks now and managed to do just enough to win at home.

Mike Scifres via the Union Tribune (it's hard to find a good picture of him)

Quarterback - B
This is a tough grade, Rivers threw the pick and had another dropped on a deep throw.  He only gained just over 200 yards through the air; but almost as important is the number of throws he didn't make.  When he didn't see a play he would throw the ball away; and despite being sacked four times he avoided the strip sack.  And let us not forget his fabulous lumber to get close to the first down where he went in head first and then brought the QB sneak for a crucial first down.  Rivers did enough for the win. 

Offensive Line - B
There were some nice holes created by the line coupled which led to 167 yards on the ground.  The line didn't do as well protecting Rivers, not only giving up four sacks but also allowing a lot of pressure and forced roll outs.  Considering the skill of Mathis and Freeney, it wasn't a bad effort and the run blocking was the best of the season.

Wide Receivers - C-
Almost a non-factor in this game.  Give credit to a great game by the Indianapolis secondary that kept Vincent Jackson to no catches.  Chambers caught for about 50 yards and Naanee chipped in about 15; but the wide receivers were scarcely an issue in this game.  

Tight Ends - A
You expect your stars to come through in the big games and Antonio Gates did exactly that.  You want your tight end to take those middle routes against a Tampa two and that is exactly what Gates did.  An exceptional performance with the high ankle sprain.

Running Backs - A
Wow, LT gives a great start before going down with the nagging groin injury.  Sproles gets 23 carries and 105 yards on the ground plus 45 through the air.  Michael Bennett chipped in with 24 yards; but lets not forget perhaps the best performance.  In the replays of all three touchdown runs Hester could be found making a block that would key the big play; I have spent some time this season wondering if we had overpaid for Hester but he has really come into his own these last few games.

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This game was a classic; an epic of the first water.  The easy thing to say is that the Chargers have the Colts number; but that clearly isn't true.  Every game against the Colts comes down to the final play and today it was the Chargers who had the ball last.  In an ironic twist this game really revolved around two terrific defenses and special teams instead of the quarterbacks with all the gaudy awards and statistics.  Philip Rivers would end up with a passer rating of 60 with one interception and four sacks and a scant 190 yards.  Peyton Manning would get three hundred yards and a TD; but that is deceptive as 72 yards and the TD came on one quick snap and complete breakdown by Antonion Cromartie in coverage for the Chargers.

                           Antonio Gates had eight catches for 87 yards

The game started well for the Chargers with Ladainion Tomlinson scampering around the outside edge for thirteen easy yards.  It was clear that he was running injured however as he couldn't seem to make a cut.  That was followed by a two yard run, a six yard pass to Gates who had the high ankle sprain, but then Mathis came up big for the Colts with a sack of Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers and the Chargers were forced to put the ball.  Scifres pinned the Colts back in their ten yard line; it was the first of many dazzling punts by Scifres.  Manning came out looking sharp, aided in part by a thirty yard pass interference call against Quentin Jammer.  The Chargers defense began the game shifting formations like wildfire until there were ten seconds left on the clock.  It did seem to baffle Manning just a bit and the Colts would end up punting from the Chargers 42; but in the battle of the punters Hunter Smith would prove to be much less effective.  He hit the touchback, netting only 22 yards.

The next drive Manning would come out looking every inch the MVP as he drove 81 yards for the TD making frequent use of Anthony Gonzalez.  If the first drive the Chargers defense had him off strive; he recovered quickly.  The Chargers next possession gained only 20 yards before ending in a punt against the stout aerial defense of the Colts.  But again Scifres would boom a punt that would pin Indianapolis back at their three yard line.  The Chargers defense only allowed the Colts five yards.  Rivers would get the ball at the Colt 44 after another punt by H. Smith.  Rivers made short work of the short field with a big pass to tight end Antonio Gates; and LT bolted in from the three yard line sprung by the first of many great blocks by Jacob Hester working as fullback.

LT goes in for the score

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The Chargers won under pressure; but there are clearly still some weak areas.  The Buccaneers managed two terrific drives for touchdowns in the third quarter; but the defense came up with three turnovers so some grades might be higher than you would otherwise expect.  This was a team effort though and there were standouts on both offense and defense, so lets take a look.

Quarterback - A
Four touchdowns and no interceptions.  Rivers is now one TD away from Dan Fouts record.  Any time a quarterback gets mentioned in the same sentence with Fouts; he's a great quarterback.  The other thing Rivers did yesterday was he didn't force anything; when nothing was there he threw the ball away. 

Wide Receivers - A
Vincent Jackson coming off a concussion was lights out.  He was almost always open; he continuously got position or separation on a very talented Tampa secondary.  Chambers also came up with several catches for first downs and Legedu Naanee had one good drive where he caught two.  He has really good form catching the balls, he reaches out and grabs it out of the air.

Tight Ends - A
Gates had four catches; but two of them were for touchdowns.  On one play he just plucked the ball out of the air with one hand before turning it up field; I think that was the point at which I thought this was going to the Chargers day.  Manu came up big too; he caught the screen for seven points and was also blocking well on the running plays. 

Offensive Line - B+
Rivers had a great day in part because he had time to let things develop; there was only one sack on the day.  The line gave him the time to deliver the ball.  They also managed to create some running lanes for LT who had a good day and ended up with 90 yards on 21 rushes.  The screens for the Chargers have also regularly been going for good yards; though the Bucs did diagnose several for no gain. 

Running Backs - B+
While they only put up just over 90 yards on the ground; that doesn't capture the screens and YAC pass plays.  Together Sproles and LT caught for over 60 yards and a touchdown.

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The Chargers need to show up with energy for the full sixty minutes, they did last week against New England and it showed.  The offense should test the banged up Bill secondary, which means the Pass blocking also needs to be stout in protecting Rivers.  If Terrence McGee starts, I'm very interested to see how he does against our receivers with a serious height advantage.  Football Outsiders indicates that the number one receiver and running backs should fare better in the passing game, but it's important to remember that Terrence McGee didn't play against the Cardinals when Buffalo's secondary melted down.  With the job Floyd did against NE, I'm expecting Floyd to start at wide receiver.  It seems prudent to test the running game, but with LT and Sproles still not 100%, it will largely just be setting up the pass.  The Chargers need to control the ball more; the deep plays are great but they are really exposing the defense that hasn't always been able to answer the bell.

On defense hopefully Jamal remembers to pack his knees; the matchup against the Bills center Melvin Fowler looks like a great one (though there may be a backup as Fowler is injured).  If he brings it like he did last week, it should make the running up the middle impossible.  The defense needs to be aggressive with Man to Man coverage and bringing blitzes.  The Bills deep threat is Lee Evans; Jammer should be placed on him exclusively to just take that threat away.  The Bills tight ends have anemic receiving stats; but we have made some awfully average talent look like Pro Bowlers; the Bolts have to get better coverage and somebody remind them to chip the tight ends at the line of scrimmage.  I'd like to see more Dobbins and Waters in the middle; less Wilhelm unless it's a passing down. 

On special teams it would be huge to break one for Sproles, and on the flip side the Chargers must contain the Bills punt returner.  The Bills punter Moorman is terrific so there is no advantage there.  Jumping out to a two score lead early would take a lot of pressure of the defense by letting them focus on the passing attack.  All right, that's my blue print, what's yours?

The Patriots offensive line had real problems keeping the pressure off Tom Brady in the Super Bowl last year.  This year they have given up sixteen sacks; fifteen on Cassel.  In replacing Tom Brady, Cassel has been coming along.  While he almost never threw for TDs in preseason, he has three since taking over, although he his three interceptions to go along with them.  New England's Tight End's do not account for many yards, but I would never put it past Belichick to try and exploit that weakness in our secondary.  Morris, Faulk and Maroney make a pretty good troika as running backs, and they all seem to get touches in a game, but have only been averaging 113 yards per game. Lamont Jordan is also a great power back, but may see less or no action with his injury, he has not played the last two games.  It's hard to forget the running drive in last years playoffs with a three tight end set that the Chargers were not able to stop.  Just an aside, our defensive line is ranked dead last against the run.

Randy Moss

The threats at wide receiver are Wes Welker who tends to get the shorter routes with Randy Moss being the deep threat.  As good as they are, Jabar Gafney makes a credible third target; I would expect to see a fair amount of Cason in coverage this game.  Cassel seems to hit the deep play less often than Brady, and reports say that Moss is looking a bit frustrated.  When he was with Oakland the book on Moss was to hit him hard at the line; I would think that with an aggressive pass rush might disturb the Patriots passing game; and they still look to be a pass first team.  They may modify that with San Diegos weakness against the run; I'm interested to see if Ian Scott will be active this week.

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Forgetting for the moment this season, the Chargers face some big decisions over the next few years over which players to keep and whom to let go.  The main pain probably won't start next year, but the year after that; and in part it depends on if the collective bargaining agreement is renewed or not.  If the CBA is not renewed, the Bolts will get to keep some players an extra season at bargain prices.

Lets start off with the important contracts that expire after next season:

2008 -Igor Olshansky, Mike Goff, Darren Sproles

2009 - Chris Chambers, Vincent Jackson, Marcus McNeill, Shawne Merriman, Philip Rivers

20010 -Stephen Cooper, Antonio Cromartie, Antonio Gates, Jamal Williams, Eric Weddle

Most seem to expect Olshansky to be a goner, while steady he has never been a game changer.  Darren Sproles on the other hand is likely to find another club willing to guarantee him more touches; the club has apparently agreed to let him test the market and decide if it can afford him after that.  Mike Goff has been very consistent and quite good; but does have a number of seasons under his belt now.  I can see them keeping him or letting him go depending on what the draft leads to.

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While I'm still trying to get over the Bolts losing, this was a great game to watch.  My favorite pregame prediction was two thirds right, the sky is still blue and the earth is still spinning, but best of all we are going to have some barn burners to watch as this season careens along.  This game had great offensive play from both sides; both teams have worries about how much give there was in their defenses.  Rivers and Cutler both looked like elite QBs absolutely dissecting the opposition defense; a small grain of salt as defenses usually take a few weeks to sharpen up.  From the Chargers perspective you have to love their ability to come back from big deficits, there certainly is no give in the offense.  Unfortunately there was nothing but give on the defense; the secondary was in tatters; Cromartie may have had one of the all time bad games.  Not only did he get burned, but was penalized countless times, clearly they just got into his head.  While the Chargers defense put together some good stops in the second half, when the heat was on they melted for a second straight week.  

Darren Sproles doing his thing.

At the end of the game Ed Hochuli whistled the play dead, killing a Cutler fumble at the ten yard line instead of allowing the Charger fumble recovery.  There was no doubt that the Zebras made huge errors; but there is just no way you can give up a TD and the two to follow and say the Bolts didn't have their chances to stop it.  It was a pity that bad calls marred what was otherwise a terrific game between two great offenses.  Still, I'm going to be sticking pins in my Ed Hochuli doll for some time to come.  His quote after the game went like this:

"The ruling on the field was that it was an incomplete pass. We went to replay; it should have been ruled fumble. By rule, by the instant replay rules, on that particular play where there's a pass/fumble, a quarterback pass/fumble the rules do not permit you  to give the ball to the other team. All we can do to fix it is put the ball at the spot that it hit the ground, which is why we moved it back to the 10-yard line and the down counts and it becomes third down.''

Pretty dry stuff, I would have liked to see him do a 'mea culpa maxima'; wallow on his belly like a lizard and plead for forgiveness.

Even from a game like this there were a number of positive signs.  This offense can light it up; even with a hobbled LT.  LT was clearly still bothered by his toe, averaging just 2.5 yards per carry, but when they could get Sproles running in space he just ate up a very quick Denver defense.  He returned one kickoff for the TD going 103 yards, but also busted two other runs, one for a TD, the other called back for a holding call on Chambers. 

Phillip Rivers looked completely healthy and played flawlessly under pressure.  He did everything necessary to win, throwing long TD's, making crucial third down conversions; his knee appears completely healed.  Antonio Gates looked to be his old self, and Chambers was just a monster on the field with 4 catchs for 83 yards and two TDs, one of them he just torched Champ Bailey. 

You have to credit Denver's offense, but there is no getting around the fact that there was no pressure whatever on Cutler.  Two sacks in two weeks, coupled with a -1 on the turnover ratio is just not going to cut it.  This is a game where folks may argue that the Chargers are banged up, but on defense the only player out that they are going to get back this year is Cooper; clearly Merriman's absence leaves a hole that has yet to be filled.  Cottrell may end up being forced to blitzing and taking risks more often, as the defense stands now it is the death of a thousand cuts.  The rookie Cason continues to impress with some great tackling and a key interception; Jammer also looked good, but Cromartie was just eaten alive by Brandon Marshall; and then tacked bone headed penalties on to boot. 

This is a team that has the look so far of the Chargers of old where they are going to have to see if they can put up points faster than they give them up.  I do still believe in the talent on defense, but until they find a way to pressure the QB they are going to be giving up territory faster than the French army.  Next week they face a revamped Jets team on Monday night, they do not look to me as fierce as they first two opponents turned out to be.