Chargers-Colts Success & Stop Rates
There were three parts to the San Diego victory on Sunday: Defense, Special Teams and Darren Sproles. The stats verify the first, don't touch on the second and seem to disagree with the third. I'd like to start by explaining why the stats are "wrong" about Darren Sproles.
Sproles ran the ball 23 times on Saturday night for 105 yards (4.6 ypc). The problem was that he was stopped for gains of three yards or fewer on 14 of those carries and not one of those was in a short yardage situation. He was stuffed* on eight of his attempts. Stuffs are almost entirely the fault of the offensive line and to a lesser degree, so are carries of 1-3 yards. If we remove the stuffs from his line (a reasonable action), Sproles' success rate jumps almost 20% from 34.8% to 53.3% (a most respectable rate and more representative of his play on Saturday). Also his yards per carry balloons from 4.6 to 6.5.
Sproles' 20% success rate in the passing game is also weighed down by factors outside of his control. Of his eight failures, five incomplete passes that were thrown at his feet and not actually at him. If you remove those from his line (a reasonable action), his success rate doubles to a still less than stellar 40%. Still, his two successes are a big 17 yarder on first down and a huge 13 yarder on third and long which the success rate system doesn't effectively reward. However, that is balanced out by his goal line fumble which the system doesn't effectively punish.
There is also Sproles' stellar night returning punts and kicks that isn't included at the numbers at all, but that I'm certain you're all aware of.
The defense was excellent. 58.5% is damn good against an average offense. Against the Colts, is downright incredible. Things didn't look good early. On the Colts' second drive of the game they went 85 yards on nine plays (seven of them successful). Once they hit the red zone, it took the Colts only three plays (all three successful) to punch it into the end zone. Outside of that second drive of the game, the Chargers' defense had a stop rate of 64.3%.
That drive would be the last time the Colts ran a play in the red zone.
Jamal Williams, Jyles Tucker and Stephen Cooper tied for the team lead in Stops with five. Igor Olshansky and Eric Weddle tied for fourth with three apiece. Antoine Cason had two. Luis Castillo, Tim Dobbins, Jacques Cesaire, Matt Wilhelm, Antonio Cromartie and Quentin Jammer also picked up a Stop. One really can't say enough about the play of the San Diego defense on Saturday.
We already touched on Special Teams in discussing Sproles' night, but the other star of that unit was Mike Scifres. I might have to get a Scifres jersey. He punted six times. His net average was 51.7. Tony Dungy called him "the difference in the game." I have asserted to anyone who would listen that Scifres is the best player on the team and after Saturday, I feel a lot better about that.
And one more stat real quick: the Chargers under Norv Turner are 3-1 in the playoffs.
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San Diego Chargers beat Indianapolis Colts 23-17 in Overtime
This game was a classic; an epic of the first water. The easy thing to say is that the Chargers have the Colts number; but that clearly isn't true. Every game against the Colts comes down to the final play and today it was the Chargers who had the ball last. In an ironic twist this game really revolved around two terrific defenses and special teams instead of the quarterbacks with all the gaudy awards and statistics. Philip Rivers would end up with a passer rating of 60 with one interception and four sacks and a scant 190 yards. Peyton Manning would get three hundred yards and a TD; but that is deceptive as 72 yards and the TD came on one quick snap and complete breakdown by Antonion Cromartie in coverage for the Chargers.
Antonio Gates had eight catches for 87 yards
The game started well for the Chargers with Ladainion Tomlinson scampering around the outside edge for thirteen easy yards. It was clear that he was running injured however as he couldn't seem to make a cut. That was followed by a two yard run, a six yard pass to Gates who had the high ankle sprain, but then Mathis came up big for the Colts with a sack of Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers and the Chargers were forced to put the ball. Scifres pinned the Colts back in their ten yard line; it was the first of many dazzling punts by Scifres. Manning came out looking sharp, aided in part by a thirty yard pass interference call against Quentin Jammer. The Chargers defense began the game shifting formations like wildfire until there were ten seconds left on the clock. It did seem to baffle Manning just a bit and the Colts would end up punting from the Chargers 42; but in the battle of the punters Hunter Smith would prove to be much less effective. He hit the touchback, netting only 22 yards.
The next drive Manning would come out looking every inch the MVP as he drove 81 yards for the TD making frequent use of Anthony Gonzalez. If the first drive the Chargers defense had him off strive; he recovered quickly. The Chargers next possession gained only 20 yards before ending in a punt against the stout aerial defense of the Colts. But again Scifres would boom a punt that would pin Indianapolis back at their three yard line. The Chargers defense only allowed the Colts five yards. Rivers would get the ball at the Colt 44 after another punt by H. Smith. Rivers made short work of the short field with a big pass to tight end Antonio Gates; and LT bolted in from the three yard line sprung by the first of many great blocks by Jacob Hester working as fullback.
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Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Diego Chargers, Recent History
This is a must win game for the Chargers, down by one game to the Denver Broncos a loss at home to the Chiefs would be devastating to their hopes of salvaging the season. Recent matchups provide little comfort; the Chiefs always play the Chargers tough.
The Chargers won at Kansas City 24-10 on December 5, 2007. LT rushed for two touchdowns and Vincent Jackson caught for one, but the Chargers only mustered 330 yards of offense. The real story of the game was one fumble recovery and three interceptions; two by Cromartie and one by Drayton Florence. That coupled with a powerful running game that booked 191 yards made this a surprisingly easy win in Arrowhead stadium. The Chiefs are usually tough on their on their home turf.
Kansas City came in and upset the Chargers at the Murph 30-16 on October 3, 2007. Dwayne Bowe looked unstoppable as he caught 8 for 164 yards and a touchdown. This game was closer than it appeared, the Chargers were down 23-16 in the fourth quarter when Rivers fumbled the ball and it was recovered and run back 50 yards for the final Kansas City touchdown. Rivers had an awful day throwing up two interceptions and coughing up that fumble. Marlon McCree and Clinton Hart both had interceptions, but the Chargers still lost the turnover battle 2-4. In the end that was the story of the game.
In the 2006 season on December 18, the Chiefs were run down by LT, 20-9 in San Diego. Tomlinson just ran right through them for 199 yards and two touch downs. Michael Turner chipped in 58 more as the Bolts rushed for 265 yards. The San Diego defense also came up big sacking Trent Green six times. Donnie Edwards was still covering the inside and came up with an interception. We will see Donnie Edwards again this Sunday as a Chief; I always enjoyed watching him play; it was too bad he and AJ didn't get along.
October 23, 2006 was a different story however as the Chargers would lose a close one 27-30 in Kansas City. After falling behind by two touchdowns in the fourth quarter the Bolts came roaring back with a 37 yard touchdown pass to LT, then LT threw a one yard pass to tie the game at 27. The furious comeback went for naught however when the Chiefs nailed a 53 yard field goal in the final seconds.
So over the last two years the Chiefs are 2-2 against the Bolts; this is a team the Chargers can't afford to overlook. If they get a loss hung on them here at home after the bye; it is hard to imagine them bouncing back from that.
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Grading the Bolts
This was a game it looked like the Chargers should win going in; no doubt it was a bad sign when it opened with a power outage. With a banged up secondary and their best pass rusher out; the Bills looked like they should be vulnerable. The Chargers had their chances but ultimately the offense would self-destruct with a series of excruciating turn overs and the defense didn't hold up against a terrific performance by Trent Edwards coming off a concussion.
Just to keep my spirits up. ;-)
Quaterback - D
When he was good, he was very good, but when he was bad it was ugly. In the first half he fumbled, leading to seven points on the short field for Buffalo. The interception in the fourth quarter shouldn't have been thrown. Rivers seemed to assume with the mismatch in height and assume he can fire into triple coverage and have his man come away with the ball. The final nail in the coffin was his fumble on the last drive, but the game was out of reach by then. The defense played poorly, but Rivers put more pressure on them by committing three turn overs.
Wide Receivers - B
Watching Malcolm Floyd come in and just tear up defenses is great to see. This is a team that is deep at wide receiver. Both Vincent Jackson and Malcolm Floyd played well; I would have much rather seen more balls going there way and much less rushing from first down.
Running Backs - D
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Chargers, Who to Keep
Forgetting for the moment this season, the Chargers face some big decisions over the next few years over which players to keep and whom to let go. The main pain probably won't start next year, but the year after that; and in part it depends on if the collective bargaining agreement is renewed or not. If the CBA is not renewed, the Bolts will get to keep some players an extra season at bargain prices.
Lets start off with the important contracts that expire after next season:
2008 -Igor Olshansky, Mike Goff, Darren Sproles
2009 - Chris Chambers, Vincent Jackson, Marcus McNeill, Shawne Merriman, Philip Rivers
20010 -Stephen Cooper, Antonio Cromartie, Antonio Gates, Jamal Williams, Eric Weddle
Most seem to expect Olshansky to be a goner, while steady he has never been a game changer. Darren Sproles on the other hand is likely to find another club willing to guarantee him more touches; the club has apparently agreed to let him test the market and decide if it can afford him after that. Mike Goff has been very consistent and quite good; but does have a number of seasons under his belt now. I can see them keeping him or letting him go depending on what the draft leads to.
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Cromartie Named Defensive Player of the Week
Antonio Cromartie picked off two Favre passes in Monday nights 49-28 victory against the Jets, running back one for the TD. The first pick was something special where he tipped the ball up and then just took it away from the Jet receiver. Cromartie had a great comeback from an awful game in Denver the week before. In the Jets game he also had the opportunity to pick a third, but had it bounce off his hands. This is the third Player of the Week award for Cromartie who won last season in week 9 when he picked of Peyton Manning three times, and then for special teams in week 10 when he ran back an attempted field goal for a TD.
Cromartie via media.signonsandiego.com
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Grading the Bolts
Quarterback - A-
Rivers has yet to have an off game this year; he really seems to be developing into one of the best. He went 19/25 for 250 yards, 3 TDs and one costly pick that was returned for the TD. His QB rating was a torrid 130, the offensive line gave him plenty of time and he just picked the Jets secondary apart. His first pass was intercepted, his second nearly picked off, but after that he was spot on; he maintained his composure after the two bad throws. In one instance in the fourth quarter he audibled from scrimmage and threw a beautiful pass to Vincent Jackson who had one on one coverage for 60 yards to ice the game. Rivers is really the spraying the ball around to all his targets and is letting his play do the talking this season.
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San Diego on Defense
While the defense has been victimized so far, it has had spurts where it has played well, particularly in the second half. These are the folks I think need to step it up if the Bolts are going to see some more defensive stops.
Cromartie via www.nancarrow-webdesk.com
Antonio Cromartie
Who would have thought that we would be talking about Cromartie needing to step it up? Even last year he was a gambler, but his risks paid off more often than not. His play against Carolina was aggressive, but several attempted picks ended up as long gainers. While you can't complain too much about that, against Denver he was completely owned by Brandon Marshall. Targeted 20 times, Marshall caught 18. In addition to that Cromartie was also flagged for a face mask, tackling out of bounds and in general was just awful the entire first half. He could be seen jawing at Marshall and was clearly completely off his game. He does have a hip injury, how much that contributed is hard to say, but Cromartie really needs to step up this week against one of the great passing QBs in NFL history.
Matt Wilhelm
Last year Wilhelm had a slow start at the inside linebacker position, he was slightly injured then. This season there seems to be no injury, but his play has been very tentative, he has been taking bad angles and been largely ineffective. In one preseason game he just got completely run over by the RB, that is something you just don't expect to see. During the preseason I thought it had to do with how little Jamal Williams was playing at nose tackle, but even with Jamal in there he has looked weak. Stephen Cooper is still out and he will make a difference when he comes back, but some of the fault has to hang on Wilhelm. Folks are talking about how much more aggressive Dobbins was in relief of Wilhelm, look for him to take more playing time from Wilhelm this week.
Jamal Williams
You can see flashes of the old Jamal, but overall he doesn't always seem to dominate the line of scrimmage as he has in the past. The Chargers are definitely better with him in there, but he isn't getting the same kind of penetration that he did in 2006. The backups Bingham and McKinney are a downgrade, I'm still not sure what the thinking was in letting Divens go, he was quickly claimed by the Ravens. The Chargers are going to have to use a high draft pick to find his heir apparent in the next draft, if not pull off a trade. The nose tackle is absolutely irreplaceable in making for an effective 3-4 defense. It may be the lack of preseason playing time that is partially to blame, but Jamal's knees are clearly going to be the pacing item on his play from here on out.
Luis Castillo
With his new contract, you might have expected a burst of output, but thus far he has had no sacks and just six tackles. No sacks is one thing, but he is also not collapsing the pocket, QBs have been very comfortable back there. In part you can lay that off to good offensive line play by Denver and Carolina, but he has just not been bringing the heat as he has in past seasons. The same could be said for Olshansky, but I haven't ever been as impressed by Olshansky.
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