There were three parts to the San Diego victory on Sunday: Defense, Special Teams and Darren Sproles.  The stats verify the first, don't touch on the second and seem to disagree with the third.  I'd like to start by explaining why the stats are "wrong" about Darren Sproles.

Sproles ran the ball 23 times on Saturday night for 105 yards (4.6 ypc).  The problem was that he was stopped for gains of three yards or fewer on 14 of those carries and not one of those was in a short yardage situation.  He was stuffed* on eight of his attempts.  Stuffs are almost entirely the fault of the offensive line and to a lesser degree, so are carries of 1-3 yards.  If we remove the stuffs from his line (a reasonable action), Sproles' success rate jumps almost 20% from 34.8% to 53.3% (a most respectable rate and more representative of his play on Saturday).  Also his yards per carry balloons from 4.6 to 6.5.

Sproles' 20% success rate in the passing game is also weighed down by factors outside of his control.  Of his eight failures, five incomplete passes that were thrown at his feet and not actually at him.  If you remove those from his line (a reasonable action), his success rate doubles to a still less than stellar 40%.  Still, his two successes are a big 17 yarder on first down and a huge 13 yarder on third and long which the success rate system doesn't effectively reward.  However, that is balanced out by his goal line fumble which the system doesn't effectively punish.

There is also Sproles' stellar night returning punts and kicks that isn't included at the numbers at all, but that I'm certain you're all aware of.

The defense was excellent.  58.5% is damn good against an average offense.  Against the Colts, is downright incredible.  Things didn't look good early.  On the Colts' second drive of the game they went 85 yards on nine plays (seven of them successful).  Once they hit the red zone, it took the Colts only three plays (all three successful) to punch it into the end zone.  Outside of that second drive of the game, the Chargers' defense had a stop rate of 64.3%.

That drive would be the last time the Colts ran a play in the red zone.

Jamal Williams, Jyles Tucker and Stephen Cooper tied for the team lead in Stops with five.  Igor Olshansky and Eric Weddle tied for fourth with three apiece.  Antoine Cason had two.  Luis Castillo, Tim Dobbins, Jacques Cesaire, Matt Wilhelm, Antonio Cromartie and Quentin Jammer also picked up a Stop.  One really can't say enough about the play of the San Diego defense on Saturday.

We already touched on Special Teams in discussing Sproles' night, but the other star of that unit was Mike Scifres.  I might have to get a Scifres jersey.  He punted six times.  His net average was 51.7.  Tony Dungy called him "the difference in the game."  I have asserted to anyone who would listen that Scifres is the best player on the team and after Saturday, I feel a lot better about that.

And one more stat real quick: the Chargers under Norv Turner are 3-1 in the playoffs.

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As the Chargers begin the playoffs analysts and pundits are already predicting the quick one and done for the 8-8 Bolts.  I thought it would be well to take a look at what has changed since many were predicting a deep run, perhaps even to the big game.  Hopes were high coming into that first game of the season against the Panthers, perhaps foolishly high.  Merriman had just pledged to play the season and the pieces looked set for a simple divisional championship.  That first game had some key pieces either missing or not completely healed however. 

Jamal & Co.

Antonio Gates was playing, but clearly not at full strength.  Nick Hardwick was not at center, Jeremy Newberry was filling in quite well however.  Our Pro Bowl left tackle Marcus McNeil was out with a severe stinger that would keep him out those first four week.  Merriman would play at outside linebacker, but was not playing as much nor as well; though he is always a force.  Rivers had looked fine in preseason, but how would he take that first real hit?  LT had not played in preseason, but seemed to be bursting to go after the offseason critics had been gnawing at that last New England game.  Stephen Cooper was out with the four game suspension; but the feeling was that Wilhelm and Derek Smith would be up to the task, some even asked if he might not get played out of a job.

That first game dispelled some worries, but increased others.  The defense fell apart late allowing the last second score for the victory.  The Panthers had beaten the Chargers even without Smith who was on suspension.  Wilhelm and Smith were woefully overmatched at the inside linebacker positions.  The offensive line was sturdy enough with the backups and best of all not only were Philip Rivers knees solid, but he was hitting deep patterns better than ever due to rigorous off season weight training.  Vincent Jackson and Chambers looked to be picking up right where they left off.  The secondary was still struggling to cover Tight Ends however.  At the end of that game you had to be worried about the inside linebackers Wilhelm & Smith and Merriman decided he wasn't going to be able to play on.

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This past week's contest with Tampa Bay has been described as the Chargers' first complete game of the season.  I would only quibble with the description of it as the first.  This Sunday's 17-point victory over the Buccaneers was most definitely a complete game.

Neither side of the ball was dominant for four quarters, but they were both in control.  Even when the Bucs took their first lead of the day, I don't think anyone could seriously have thought they were going to win.

For one of the very few times this year, the offense was successful both running and passing the ball.  The success rates don't really capture how good the offense was because it doesn't give any extra credit for big plays and the offense was full of big plays on Sunday.

Gates obviously had a big day, but I think one guy people are overlooking is Naanee.  He only got two looks, but both were first down catches on third down.  LT had his first successful day running the ball in I can't remember how long.  Jackson continues to get a ton of looks and is still cashing in on them.

On the defensive side of the ball, the defense was dominant in the first half and the fourth quarter but was dominated in the third quarter.  It didn't come back to bite them and their total numbers were solid, but you can't like seeing the other team come out looking that strong against them to open the second half.  The adjustments made in the fourth quarter are rather promising, though.

Cooper again tied for the team lead in Stops, this time with Jamal, while also intercepting his fourth pass in three games.  I think perhaps we missed him in the first four games of the season.  Castillo, Phillips, and Weddle all had three stops.  The defensive line combined for nine on the day (Olshansky and Cesaire had one each).

The entire team really does seem to be peaking right at the end of the year.  I'm excited.  Hopefully, they don't come out ant lay an egg on Sunday night.  I don't see it happening, but as a San Diego sports fan I can't discount the possibility that it will.

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The offense and defense were both pretty bad this week against one of the weaker teams in The League.  Fortunately,  they were both good enough to win and with the way this season has gone, I'll take it.

Offense

The offense was, again, much better in the Red Zone than out of it (54.5% to 41.7%).  On the day, the offense put together a total of eight successful running plays.  Two of them were in the Red Zone where they only ran the ball twice.  Of their 19 carries, all but four went to Tomlinson.  Those four were split among Hester, Rivers and Jackson.  All of them were successful.

As usual, they were better when they threw the ball, though not by much.  Gates led all Charger receivers in unsuccessful plays (seven) and Chambers had the lowest success rate (14.3%).  Unsurprisingly, Floyd led Charger receivers in successful plays (five) and among those targeted more than once in success rate (83.3%).  The Chargers success rate when passing jumps nine points if you remove all passes that targeted Chambers and Gates who are supposedly our top two pass catching threats.

Prior to the final five minutes the of the game, the Charger offense was successful on 18 of 51 plays (35.3%), but in those final five minutes they were successful on 14 of 21 (66.7%).

Defense

Watching the game, it seemed that the Chiefs were running all over the Chargers defense, but they weren't actually having that much success on the ground.  Well, their running backs weren't, at least.  Larry Johnson was stopped on 58.8% of his carries and Charles only managed to break even on his four rushing attempts.  Quarterback Tyler Thigpen, on the other hand, was nigh unstoppable on Sunday as the defense stopped him on only 25% of his rushes.

It was the passing game, though, where the defense nearly lost this game.  A 40% stop rate against the pass is atrocious and it doesn't even capture how bad they were for most of the game.  Half of their 12 stops came in the third quarter alone which means they had a stop rate of 26% in the other three quarters, a performance so pathetic I can't put it into words.

Looking at the defense on an individual level, there are some bright spots.  Antwan Applewhite and Stephen Cooper led the team in stops with four.  All four of Applewhite's tackles were stops and Cooper also chipped in with a pick in the end zone.  Third on the defense was Jamal Williams with three stops out of four tackles.  Jammer and Phillips both contributed with two stops each.  The rest of the defense doesn't really show up positively in this particular analysis, but part of that is due to the limits of this kind of analysis.

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When you are down by eleven points at the two minute warning and end up with a win; the football gods are smiling at you.  The Chargers got outplayed for most of this game and looked to see their playoff hopes finally flat line, but Rivers had other plans and for this week the ball bounced to the Chargers.  Once asked if he wanted a skillful general, Napoleon replied that he wanted a lucky one, he could teach him everything else.  While I don't mean to take anything away from Rivers phenomenal comeback; the catch to Chambers where he lay stunned after a ferocious hit but had just enough left to grab the ball for a big gainer and then the onside kick where the Chiefs best receiver dropped the onside kick, and who else but perennial special teams Pro Bowler Kassim Osgood came up with it, were just outrageous good fortune.  The Chargers have two wins against the Chiefs by one point; each with the Chiefs in a position to win at games end.  

Next week the Chargers will need to beat a good Tampa Bay team still fighting for the playoffs at home and the Broncos will have to lose to mediocre Bills team that is out of the playoffs at Denver in order to continue the Chargers improbable hopes.  But enough, on to the grades:

Quarterback - A-
This was hard to place; Rivers actually played poorly for much of the game with a pick off and fumble as well as numerous failed drives.  But how can you not give an A to the QB who brings a team back from the dead with huge passing plays when the defense knew he had to throw the ball?    Folks on SBN have all kinds of images of Rivers making ridiculous faces; it's because he cares.  You see some other quarterbacks when things are going the wrong way and they are looking at their shoes; Rivers always brings fire and I'll take that every day of the week.

Wide Receivers - B+
They had some trouble getting open early; but the final two TDs went to Malcom Floyd and Vincent Jackson.  Jackson also had the huge pickup on the final drive that placed San Diego in position to win.  Chambers play where he managed to hang on despite the wicked hit was crucial as well.  On the down side Jackson had a fumble in the first half that really set the Chargers back. 

Running Backs - C-
Some very nice screens; but LT was stymied behind poor run blocking again.  He also has been dropping passes that nobody should drop; 3-4 in the past few weeks.  One big gainer was called back on a holding call; once again penalties were horrific.  Hester ran some nifty screens and had ran a second fake punt for the first down.

Offensive Line - D-
Weak run blocking and the Chiefs were getting at Rivers.  The Chiefs with 6 sacks all season coming into the game took Rivers down three times and had a number of hurries.  OK, Dielman got thrown out early on an egregious call and Hardwick went out with a concussion; but the Chargers need a free agent or high draft pick to be used on the line this off season.

Tight Ends - B-
Gates was back, he nabbed more than seventy yards in passes.  Like LT he too had a drop on what should have been an easy catch.  Manumaleuna came up with a big catch as well.

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Considering this was a game they had to have the Chargers came out flat.  At home after the bye, the defense would give up two long TD drives and the offense would bog down and settle for two field goals, and then give up the int right before the half.  Give the Chiefs full credit; they did not look like a 1-7 football team.  Thigpen was throwing well and they mostly held the San Diego offense despite having numerous injuries that left second and third stringers in their lineup.  This was a game I expected the Chargers to dominate, but the Chiefs showed up with grit and were surprisingly stout against the run.  This looks like a team that is moving the right direction and it is going to be trouble down the road.

The story of this game for me was the way the Chargers defense showed up in the second half.  They forced five consecutive punts from KC; once immediately after an interception.  While they gave up the final TD drive; a lot of those yards came from a highly questionable PI call.  They also forced KC to a fourth down once; and in the end Hart made that one big defensive play that has been eluding the Bolts this whole season. 

 
                                   Clinton Saves the Day

Quarterback - B

In a stiff wind some of Rivers passes were not as crisp as they needed to be.  He also overthrew LT on a crucial third down in the red zone resulting in a San Diego Field goal.  At the end of the first half he was picked off in the endzone killing what had been a good drive.  He came out sharp in the second half throwing the TD to Floyd, but also burned two time outs trying to audible at the line and then had the killer interception trying to avoid the sack.  For all that he threw for 300 yards with 2 TDs and two interceptions.  In crunch time he was eight for eight on the final drive.

Wide Receivers - A-

Vincent Jackson had another drop, but otherwise looked reasonably sharp.  The wide receiver who was money this game was Malcolm Floyd who made a remarkable juggling catch on the sideline as well as catching the TD in the second half to tie it up.  This kid is just lighting it up; you have to love the Chargers depth at wide receiver.  Legedu Naanee came up big with a fine third down catch as well.

Tight Ends - A-

Antonio Gates was tremendous; along with the other wide receivers the Chargers definitely have an impressive array of weapons through the air.  He came up huge on the go ahead drive in the second half on third down; and then for the go ahead TD.

Offensive Line - B-

They gave up two sacks; and the running game against an anemic defense with multiple injuries was limp.  LT appeared to be running hard, but even after making two or three tacklers miss, he would be back at the line of scrimmage; the line was allowing penetration.  It improved a bit towards the end of the game, but what has become of the offensive line that used to pummel opponents into submission?

Running Backs - C+

LT was running hard, but really didn't have the holes to run through.  Fullback Mike Tolbert made several nice runs after short passes; and lateraled one to LT for a nice gainer.  LT began moving better in the second half, juking one KC defender out of his cleats; then running for 20 yards.  LT also passed OJ Simpson and Corey Dillon on yards, he is now in 15th place; he needs just 74 yards to pass John Riggins next week.

Defensive line - B-

There was still not enough pressure on the QB; but they did do a nice job of containing the running game.  Jamal Williams was great in the center, and Castillo made a couple nice tackles.  Jamal came up huge more than a few times in getting penetration and stuffing the run; and in one instance getting in Thigpen's face just as he was throwing to force an errant throw and subsequent punt.

Cornerbacks - C

They ran hot and cold; Jammer gave up the TD early when he just gave up on the receiver; but would redeem himself with I believe three huge third down stops.  Cason came up huge on another third down stop off Rivers turnover in the second half.  Cromartie had a nice chip that cost the Chiefs a third down conversion too.  Overall they looked to play much more man to man and were able to help force a series of three and outs.  While Hart was called for PI right at the end of the game; it was clearly a blown call on what was a terrific play.

Safeties - A-

While I didn't see any specific mistakes; Gonzales had a huge game and there were several plays where the safety help to the inside seemed slow.  Weddle made some nice tackles for short gains on short routes.  The high grade is almost entirely for Clinton Hart who both made a terrific play in the fourth quarter that the officials somehow turned into a PI call, but then made the play at the games end to deny the Chiefs the two point conversion and iced the Chargers victory.  After having been unfairly flagged, having missed the game saving play against the Panthers and having been called out for poor play in the press; that had to be most satisfying.

Linebackers -C

Marques Harris came close to getting a sack, and they were really attacking the run.  While there wasn't as much pressure as you would hope for; they were really diving in at the line on the blitzes.  This team has really come a long way against the run; they still have a ways to come against the pass.  For the Chiefs third string QB to come into the Murph and end up with a QB rating that looks like Manning spells trouble.  It was also yet another game without an interception; or turnover for that matter.

Coaching -C

The defense in the first half gave up the big touchdown, but did seem to force more third downs.  The offense came out flat, and I still would like to see them run the ball more.  I would have expected the staff to have them come roaring out, but that just didn't happen here.  Rivers is starting to try and force things when they aren't there; and had more than a few balls go out waffling in the wind.  There were also two instances of Rivers calling timeouts because of trying to audible a play late in the count; not to mention one delay of game.  You can blame Rivers for the mistakes; but you would expect Turner to be working with him on knowing when to throw the ball away.

This was a game it looked like the Chargers should win going in; no doubt it was a bad sign when it opened with a power outage.  With a banged up secondary and their best pass rusher out; the Bills looked like they should be vulnerable.  The Chargers had their chances but ultimately the offense would self-destruct with a series of excruciating turn overs and the defense didn't hold up against a terrific performance by Trent Edwards coming off a concussion. 

Just to keep my spirits up.  ;-)

Quaterback - D

When he was good, he was very good, but when he was bad it was ugly.  In the first half he fumbled, leading to seven points on the short field for Buffalo.  The interception in the fourth quarter shouldn't have been thrown.  Rivers seemed to assume with the mismatch in height and assume he can fire into triple coverage and have his man come away with the ball.  The final nail in the coffin was his fumble on the last drive, but the game was out of reach by then.  The defense played poorly, but Rivers put more pressure on them by committing three turn overs.

Wide Receivers - B

Watching Malcolm Floyd come in and just tear up defenses is great to see.  This is a team that is deep at wide receiver.  Both Vincent Jackson and Malcolm Floyd played well; I would have much rather seen more balls going there way and much less rushing from first down. 

Running Backs - D

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The Chargers need to show up with energy for the full sixty minutes, they did last week against New England and it showed.  The offense should test the banged up Bill secondary, which means the Pass blocking also needs to be stout in protecting Rivers.  If Terrence McGee starts, I'm very interested to see how he does against our receivers with a serious height advantage.  Football Outsiders indicates that the number one receiver and running backs should fare better in the passing game, but it's important to remember that Terrence McGee didn't play against the Cardinals when Buffalo's secondary melted down.  With the job Floyd did against NE, I'm expecting Floyd to start at wide receiver.  It seems prudent to test the running game, but with LT and Sproles still not 100%, it will largely just be setting up the pass.  The Chargers need to control the ball more; the deep plays are great but they are really exposing the defense that hasn't always been able to answer the bell.

On defense hopefully Jamal remembers to pack his knees; the matchup against the Bills center Melvin Fowler looks like a great one (though there may be a backup as Fowler is injured).  If he brings it like he did last week, it should make the running up the middle impossible.  The defense needs to be aggressive with Man to Man coverage and bringing blitzes.  The Bills deep threat is Lee Evans; Jammer should be placed on him exclusively to just take that threat away.  The Bills tight ends have anemic receiving stats; but we have made some awfully average talent look like Pro Bowlers; the Bolts have to get better coverage and somebody remind them to chip the tight ends at the line of scrimmage.  I'd like to see more Dobbins and Waters in the middle; less Wilhelm unless it's a passing down. 

On special teams it would be huge to break one for Sproles, and on the flip side the Chargers must contain the Bills punt returner.  The Bills punter Moorman is terrific so there is no advantage there.  Jumping out to a two score lead early would take a lot of pressure of the defense by letting them focus on the passing attack.  All right, that's my blue print, what's yours?

The Chargers showed up for all full sixty minutes and Sunday night and came away with a sound victory.  The offense didn't convert everything in the red zone, but still came away with 30 points.  This game was the mirror image of last week, where the Bolts really were dominant on both sides of the line.  Couple that with a Denver loss and the Chargers control their fate again; if they win out they don't need any help to take the division. With a road game against the Bill's, then the ultimate road game to jolly old England against the Saints the Chargers have some tough games ahead.

Quarterback - A

After two sub-par games, Rivers was really on his game.  He was hitting short and long passes with authority.  He was without one of his favorite targets, but didn't miss a beat with Malcolm Floyd doing an excellent job filling in; this team is deep with talented receivers.  He ended the night 18/27, 3 TDs and no interceptions and a robust 141 QB rating.  The team really took advantage of Deltha O'Neal's height deficit.  Rivers set the tone early completing a bomb to Vincent Jackson; they ended up settling for three, but you could see they were going to move the ball.

Receivers - A

I can remember one dropped pass by Vincent Jackson, but apart from that Jackson and Floyd were terrific; I was surprised that we didn't see Buster or Legedu more.  That first bomb to Jackson was up for grabs, and Jackson took it down; he is really turning into a dominant receiver.

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Forgetting for the moment this season, the Chargers face some big decisions over the next few years over which players to keep and whom to let go.  The main pain probably won't start next year, but the year after that; and in part it depends on if the collective bargaining agreement is renewed or not.  If the CBA is not renewed, the Bolts will get to keep some players an extra season at bargain prices.

Lets start off with the important contracts that expire after next season:

2008 -Igor Olshansky, Mike Goff, Darren Sproles

2009 - Chris Chambers, Vincent Jackson, Marcus McNeill, Shawne Merriman, Philip Rivers

20010 -Stephen Cooper, Antonio Cromartie, Antonio Gates, Jamal Williams, Eric Weddle

Most seem to expect Olshansky to be a goner, while steady he has never been a game changer.  Darren Sproles on the other hand is likely to find another club willing to guarantee him more touches; the club has apparently agreed to let him test the market and decide if it can afford him after that.  Mike Goff has been very consistent and quite good; but does have a number of seasons under his belt now.  I can see them keeping him or letting him go depending on what the draft leads to.

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