Chargers-Colts Success & Stop Rates
There were three parts to the San Diego victory on Sunday: Defense, Special Teams and Darren Sproles. The stats verify the first, don't touch on the second and seem to disagree with the third. I'd like to start by explaining why the stats are "wrong" about Darren Sproles.
Sproles ran the ball 23 times on Saturday night for 105 yards (4.6 ypc). The problem was that he was stopped for gains of three yards or fewer on 14 of those carries and not one of those was in a short yardage situation. He was stuffed* on eight of his attempts. Stuffs are almost entirely the fault of the offensive line and to a lesser degree, so are carries of 1-3 yards. If we remove the stuffs from his line (a reasonable action), Sproles' success rate jumps almost 20% from 34.8% to 53.3% (a most respectable rate and more representative of his play on Saturday). Also his yards per carry balloons from 4.6 to 6.5.
Sproles' 20% success rate in the passing game is also weighed down by factors outside of his control. Of his eight failures, five incomplete passes that were thrown at his feet and not actually at him. If you remove those from his line (a reasonable action), his success rate doubles to a still less than stellar 40%. Still, his two successes are a big 17 yarder on first down and a huge 13 yarder on third and long which the success rate system doesn't effectively reward. However, that is balanced out by his goal line fumble which the system doesn't effectively punish.
There is also Sproles' stellar night returning punts and kicks that isn't included at the numbers at all, but that I'm certain you're all aware of.
The defense was excellent. 58.5% is damn good against an average offense. Against the Colts, is downright incredible. Things didn't look good early. On the Colts' second drive of the game they went 85 yards on nine plays (seven of them successful). Once they hit the red zone, it took the Colts only three plays (all three successful) to punch it into the end zone. Outside of that second drive of the game, the Chargers' defense had a stop rate of 64.3%.
That drive would be the last time the Colts ran a play in the red zone.
Jamal Williams, Jyles Tucker and Stephen Cooper tied for the team lead in Stops with five. Igor Olshansky and Eric Weddle tied for fourth with three apiece. Antoine Cason had two. Luis Castillo, Tim Dobbins, Jacques Cesaire, Matt Wilhelm, Antonio Cromartie and Quentin Jammer also picked up a Stop. One really can't say enough about the play of the San Diego defense on Saturday.
We already touched on Special Teams in discussing Sproles' night, but the other star of that unit was Mike Scifres. I might have to get a Scifres jersey. He punted six times. His net average was 51.7. Tony Dungy called him "the difference in the game." I have asserted to anyone who would listen that Scifres is the best player on the team and after Saturday, I feel a lot better about that.
And one more stat real quick: the Chargers under Norv Turner are 3-1 in the playoffs.
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Chargers-Buccaneers Success & Stop Rates
This past week's contest with Tampa Bay has been described as the Chargers' first complete game of the season. I would only quibble with the description of it as the first. This Sunday's 17-point victory over the Buccaneers was most definitely a complete game.
Neither side of the ball was dominant for four quarters, but they were both in control. Even when the Bucs took their first lead of the day, I don't think anyone could seriously have thought they were going to win.
For one of the very few times this year, the offense was successful both running and passing the ball. The success rates don't really capture how good the offense was because it doesn't give any extra credit for big plays and the offense was full of big plays on Sunday.
Gates obviously had a big day, but I think one guy people are overlooking is Naanee. He only got two looks, but both were first down catches on third down. LT had his first successful day running the ball in I can't remember how long. Jackson continues to get a ton of looks and is still cashing in on them.
On the defensive side of the ball, the defense was dominant in the first half and the fourth quarter but was dominated in the third quarter. It didn't come back to bite them and their total numbers were solid, but you can't like seeing the other team come out looking that strong against them to open the second half. The adjustments made in the fourth quarter are rather promising, though.
Cooper again tied for the team lead in Stops, this time with Jamal, while also intercepting his fourth pass in three games. I think perhaps we missed him in the first four games of the season. Castillo, Phillips, and Weddle all had three stops. The defensive line combined for nine on the day (Olshansky and Cesaire had one each).
The entire team really does seem to be peaking right at the end of the year. I'm excited. Hopefully, they don't come out ant lay an egg on Sunday night. I don't see it happening, but as a San Diego sports fan I can't discount the possibility that it will.
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Are Chargers Olshansky and Castillo Phoning it in?
Igor Olshansky is in the final year of his contract. He was selected in the second round of the 2004 draft as a defensive end. While by no means a bust, he has not quite lived up to expectations either. In 2005 and 2006 he was part of a Chargers' defensive line that yielded very few running yards, but has not often gotten to the quarterback. His statistics are only marginally lower than they were last year, but he has not been coming up with big plays. Chargers fans may remember Olshansky from his hitting Bronco Tom Nalen on the back of his head after Nalen shot out at his knee on a spike play. He also made news by talking big ahead of last years playoff game against the Patriots. It has been some time since he did something really memorable on the field that changed the direction of a game; that may be somewhat unfair as in the 3-4 stats are harder to come by, but his stats thus far are pedestrian at best:
Ron Rivera called some players out for poor play in his first meeting with the players, and Olshansky's name was one of them. Despite starting in London, he didn't have a single tackle or statistic; he was a complete non-entity. Since his contract has not been renegotiated the speculation has been that he is playing a conservative game to avoid injury on the field; whether it is that or a deterioration in skills he has not been performing at a high level.
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Chargers, Who to Keep
Forgetting for the moment this season, the Chargers face some big decisions over the next few years over which players to keep and whom to let go. The main pain probably won't start next year, but the year after that; and in part it depends on if the collective bargaining agreement is renewed or not. If the CBA is not renewed, the Bolts will get to keep some players an extra season at bargain prices.
Lets start off with the important contracts that expire after next season:
2008 -Igor Olshansky, Mike Goff, Darren Sproles
2009 - Chris Chambers, Vincent Jackson, Marcus McNeill, Shawne Merriman, Philip Rivers
20010 -Stephen Cooper, Antonio Cromartie, Antonio Gates, Jamal Williams, Eric Weddle
Most seem to expect Olshansky to be a goner, while steady he has never been a game changer. Darren Sproles on the other hand is likely to find another club willing to guarantee him more touches; the club has apparently agreed to let him test the market and decide if it can afford him after that. Mike Goff has been very consistent and quite good; but does have a number of seasons under his belt now. I can see them keeping him or letting him go depending on what the draft leads to.
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San Diego on Defense
While the defense has been victimized so far, it has had spurts where it has played well, particularly in the second half. These are the folks I think need to step it up if the Bolts are going to see some more defensive stops.
Cromartie via www.nancarrow-webdesk.com
Antonio Cromartie
Who would have thought that we would be talking about Cromartie needing to step it up? Even last year he was a gambler, but his risks paid off more often than not. His play against Carolina was aggressive, but several attempted picks ended up as long gainers. While you can't complain too much about that, against Denver he was completely owned by Brandon Marshall. Targeted 20 times, Marshall caught 18. In addition to that Cromartie was also flagged for a face mask, tackling out of bounds and in general was just awful the entire first half. He could be seen jawing at Marshall and was clearly completely off his game. He does have a hip injury, how much that contributed is hard to say, but Cromartie really needs to step up this week against one of the great passing QBs in NFL history.
Matt Wilhelm
Last year Wilhelm had a slow start at the inside linebacker position, he was slightly injured then. This season there seems to be no injury, but his play has been very tentative, he has been taking bad angles and been largely ineffective. In one preseason game he just got completely run over by the RB, that is something you just don't expect to see. During the preseason I thought it had to do with how little Jamal Williams was playing at nose tackle, but even with Jamal in there he has looked weak. Stephen Cooper is still out and he will make a difference when he comes back, but some of the fault has to hang on Wilhelm. Folks are talking about how much more aggressive Dobbins was in relief of Wilhelm, look for him to take more playing time from Wilhelm this week.
Jamal Williams
You can see flashes of the old Jamal, but overall he doesn't always seem to dominate the line of scrimmage as he has in the past. The Chargers are definitely better with him in there, but he isn't getting the same kind of penetration that he did in 2006. The backups Bingham and McKinney are a downgrade, I'm still not sure what the thinking was in letting Divens go, he was quickly claimed by the Ravens. The Chargers are going to have to use a high draft pick to find his heir apparent in the next draft, if not pull off a trade. The nose tackle is absolutely irreplaceable in making for an effective 3-4 defense. It may be the lack of preseason playing time that is partially to blame, but Jamal's knees are clearly going to be the pacing item on his play from here on out.
Luis Castillo
With his new contract, you might have expected a burst of output, but thus far he has had no sacks and just six tackles. No sacks is one thing, but he is also not collapsing the pocket, QBs have been very comfortable back there. In part you can lay that off to good offensive line play by Denver and Carolina, but he has just not been bringing the heat as he has in past seasons. The same could be said for Olshansky, but I haven't ever been as impressed by Olshansky.
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