SB Nation

John Crean | January 4, 2014

2013 NFL Power Rankings Consensus

The Final Word

In our regular-season finale of looking through the NFL team rankings, we reflect on which teams were the biggest surprises and which didn't live up to expectations.

This is it. The final Power Rankings consensus post of the 2013 NFL Regular Season. Some of you may have noticed that I didn't get an article up last week. I apologize, but with Christmas being on Wednesday and a few other personal issues, it was really difficult to get the commentary together to write the post. I did collect all the rankings last week, however, so the "change in ranking" columns are all based on rankings from last week.

Now that the regular season is over, let's start with a little review, shall we?

Biggest Surprises

Team Week 1 Average Week 18 Average Difference
CAR 21.000 3.683 17.317
ARI 25.556 9.439 16.117
PHI 24.000 9.667 14.333
SDG 25.889 12.122 13.767
KC 21.667 9.494 12.173

While all 5 teams on this list did perform better than anyone else expected, I'd say on this list, the Cardinals are the biggest surprise to me.

Biggest Disappointments

Team Week 1 Average Week 18 Average Difference
HOU 7.667 30.950 -23.283
ATL 4.444 25.578 -21.134
WAS 11.111 29.983 -18.872
BAL 7.333 18.444 -11.111
NYG 12.444 22.561 -10.117

I'm a little surprised to see Baltimore on the disappointments list. Yes, it's disappointing to see the defending Super Bowl champions go 8-8 and not make the playoffs. But, it wasn't a huge surprised that they struggled a bit this year. We knew they lost quite a bit of talent in the offseason. Maybe expectations were still a bit too high to start teh season.

Notable Quotes

We predicted San Diego would be the sixth seed way back in October, and we continued to stick with it, even after the Bolts dropped to 5-7. That was the result more of our stubbornness than football IQ, but whatever. Look, everyone knows the Chargers got lucky Sunday. Now that they're in, they just need to ball out like they did in Denver in Week 15. That starts with pounding the Bengals on the ground, which means Ryan Mathews and Danny Woodhead should have 30 carries combined. On the road and against that pass rush, San Diego should not put the game on Philip Rivers.

Forcing their way into the playoff race, the Chargers snuck in assisted by a non-call against Kansas City’s B-team. Regardless, they got the spot and head to Cincinnati after their new-look offense helped them climb 15 spots from their preseason rank.

Who are the Chargers? San Diego went 5-2 against teams that finished with a winning record, and 4-5 against teams that finished .500 or worse.

Division Averages

Division Week 18 Average Week 17 Average Difference
NFC West 7.9605 7.6447 -0.3158
AFC West 13.5132 13.3421 -0.1711
NFC South 14.9605 15.1053 0.1448
AFC East 16.6184 16.3158 -0.3026
AFC North 17.0526 17.1842 0.1316
NFC North 19.4079 19.8816 0.4737
NFC East 20.0789 19.8816 -0.1973
AFC South 22.4079 22.6447 0.2368

Stock Rising

Team Week 17 Average Week 18 Average Difference
GB 18.694 15.356 3.338
NYJ 23.350 20.656 2.694
PIT 16.622 15.122 1.500
NO 6.767 5.883 0.884
CIN 7.367 6.744 0.623

Stock Falling

Team Week 17 Average Week 18 Average Difference
MIA 14.511 17.472 -2.961
DAL 16.456 18.067 -1.611
ARI 8.250 9.439 -1.189
BAL 17.306 18.444 -1.138
BUF 21.544 22.578 -1.034

Subjective Average

Subjective
ESPN CBS USA Today ProFootballTalk NFL.com SB Nation Reddit Associated Press ProFootballFocus Average Change since last period
Seahawks 1 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1.556 0.444 Rising
Broncos 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 1.556 -0.056 Falling
Panthers 3 5 3 3 3 4 3 4 5 3.667 -0.267 Falling
49ers 4 4 5 5 4 3 4 3 3 3.889 -0.289 Falling
Patriots 5 2 4 4 5 5 5 5 4 4.333 0.267 Rising
Saints 6 7 7 6 7 8 6 7 6 6.667 0.533 Rising
Bengals 7 6 6 8 8 6 7 6 8 6.889 0.511 Rising
Chiefs 10 9 10 9 6 12 8 9 7 8.889 -0.289 Falling
Colts 8 8 8 10 10 9 9 8 11 9.000 0.400 Rising
Eagles 11 10 9 7 11 7 10 10 9 9.333 0.967 Rising
Cardinals 9 13 12 11 9 10 11 12 10 10.778 -2.278 Falling
Packers 13 11 11 14 12 11 13 11 13 12.111 5.389 Rising
Chargers 12 12 13 12 13 13 12 13 12 12.444 0.256 Rising
Steelers 14 14 14 13 15 14 15 14 17 14.444 2.356 Rising
Bears 15 18 17 18 14 15 14 15 14 15.556 -1.156 Falling
Ravens 16 16 16 15 16 16 16 16 16 15.889 -2.389 Falling
Cowboys 17 17 15 17 17 19 19 17 18 17.333 -1.533 Falling
Dolphins 18 19 20 19 18 20 18 19 15 18.444 -3.644 Falling
Jets 19 15 19 16 19 23 20 18 23 19.111 2.589 Rising
Rams 20 21 18 21 20 17 17 20 20 19.333 -0.833 Falling
Lions 21 20 22 24 23 18 21 22 19 21.111 -0.711 Falling
Titans 22 22 21 23 22 21 22 23 21 21.889 0.511 Rising
Giants 23 23 25 20 21 22 23 21 22 22.222 0.778 Rising
Bills 25 26 24 22 24 26 24 24 26 24.556 -1.356 Falling
Vikings 24 24 26 25 25 25 25 25 24 24.778 0.322 Rising
Buccaneers 27 25 27 27 27 28 26 27 25 26.556 -0.556 Falling
Falcons 26 27 23 29 26 27 27 26 28 26.556 0.444 Rising
Browns 28 29 29 28 29 24 28 28 27 27.778 0.422 Rising
Jaguars 29 28 30 26 28 30 30 29 29 28.778 -0.778 Falling
Raiders 30 30 31 30 30 29 29 30 30 29.889 -0.389 Falling
Redskins 31 31 28 31 31 31 31 31 31 30.667 0.333 Rising
Texans 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32.000 0.000 No Change

Observations:

  • Seahawks and Broncos are in a dead-heat now. Both tied with a 1.556 average ranking.
  • Aaron Rodgers returns to Green Bay. Green Bay shoots up in the rankings.
  • The Arizona Cardinals, a team not playing in the playoffs, are ranked ahead of the Packers and Chargers, two teams that are playing this weekend. Just goes to show the strength of the NFC West, and the NFC on the whole.
  • Chargers are solidly holding down the number-12 spot.

Subjective Standard Deviation

Subjective
ESPN CBS USA Today ProFootballTalk NFL.com SB Nation Reddit Associated Press ProFootballFocus Standard Deviation Change since last period
Texans 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 0.000 0.000 No Change
Ravens 16 16 16 15 16 16 16 16 16 0.314 -1.046 Falling
Broncos 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 0.497 -0.003 Falling
Chargers 12 12 13 12 13 13 12 13 12 0.497 -1.179 Falling
Raiders 30 30 31 30 30 29 29 30 30 0.567 -0.458 Falling
Vikings 24 24 26 25 25 25 25 25 24 0.629 -0.817 Falling
Saints 6 7 7 6 7 8 6 7 6 0.667 -0.933 Falling
Seahawks 1 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 0.685 -0.315 Falling
49ers 4 4 5 5 4 3 4 3 3 0.737 -0.283 Falling
Titans 22 22 21 23 22 21 22 23 21 0.737 -0.825 Falling
Panthers 3 5 3 3 3 4 3 4 5 0.817 -0.100 Falling
Bengals 7 6 6 8 8 6 7 6 8 0.875 -0.406 Falling
Redskins 31 31 28 31 31 31 31 31 31 0.943 0.943 Rising
Patriots 5 2 4 4 5 5 5 5 4 0.943 -0.077 Falling
Buccaneers 27 25 27 27 27 28 26 27 25 0.956 -0.657 Falling
Colts 8 8 8 10 10 9 9 8 11 1.054 -0.956 Falling
Steelers 14 14 14 13 15 14 15 14 17 1.066 -0.534 Falling
Packers 13 11 11 14 12 11 13 11 13 1.100 0.075 Rising
Cowboys 17 17 15 17 17 19 19 17 18 1.155 -0.980 Falling
Jaguars 29 28 30 26 28 30 30 29 29 1.227 -0.038 Falling
Bills 25 26 24 22 24 26 24 24 26 1.257 -0.576 Falling
Cardinals 9 13 12 11 9 10 11 12 10 1.315 0.393 Rising
Giants 23 23 25 20 21 22 23 21 22 1.397 0.397 Rising
Eagles 11 10 9 7 11 7 10 10 9 1.414 -0.073 Falling
Dolphins 18 19 20 19 18 20 18 19 15 1.423 -0.177 Falling
Browns 28 29 29 28 29 24 28 28 27 1.474 0.602 Rising
Rams 20 21 18 21 20 17 17 20 20 1.491 -0.074 Falling
Bears 15 18 17 18 14 15 14 15 14 1.571 -0.173 Falling
Falcons 26 27 23 29 26 27 27 26 28 1.571 -0.326 Falling
Chiefs 10 9 10 9 6 12 8 9 7 1.663 -0.022 Falling
Lions 21 20 22 24 23 18 21 22 19 1.792 -0.583 Falling
Jets 19 15 19 16 19 23 20 18 23 2.558 1.289 Rising

Observations:

  • Overall, a lot of consensus across the board. I guess that's easy to do though when we've seen all these teams play 16 games now.
  • Only 6 teams saw their standard deviation go up this week. 1 team stayed the same (unanimous 32nd-ranked Texans). All the other 25 teams saw their deviation go down.
  • In Week 1, half the league had a deviation greater than 2.0. Now, only 1 team holds that distinction.

Objective Average

Objective
Football Outsiders Team Efficiency Team Rankings Sagarin BeatGraphs Aikman Efficiency Pro Football Reference Cold Hard Football Facts Massey ARGH Average Change since last period
Seahawks 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1.100 0.233 Rising
Panthers 3 8 3 4 2 3 4 3 4 3 3.700 -0.033 Falling
Broncos 2 3 6 3 9 2 2 7 3 4 4.100 -0.211 Falling
49ers 6 6 1 2 11 5 3 5 2 2 4.300 0.144 Rising
Saints 4 2 5 5 5 7 5 6 7 5 5.100 1.233 Rising
Bengals 9 4 8 9 3 4 9 2 10 8 6.600 0.733 Rising
Patriots 5 9 7 7 4 10 8 8 8 6 7.200 0.022 Rising
Cardinals 10 7 4 6 13 12 6 11 5 7 8.100 -0.100 Falling
Colts 13 16 9 8 8 11 10 10 6 9 10.000 0.222 Rising
Eagles 8 5 12 12 12 6 13 9 12 11 10.000 -0.222 Falling
Chiefs 7 19 16 10 10 9 7 4 9 10 10.100 -0.433 Falling
Chargers 12 15 11 11 7 13 11 15 11 12 11.800 0.200 Rising
Rams 14 26 10 13 15 15 12 19 13 13 15.000 -0.444 Falling
Steelers 15 11 13 15 17 20 18 14 18 17 15.800 0.644 Rising
Dolphins 23 20 14 17 6 19 15 21 16 14 16.500 -2.278 Falling
Titans 20 22 20 14 14 16 16 16 14 18 17.000 0.667 Rising
Lions 16 10 27 19 24 8 17 13 24 21 17.900 0.544 Rising
Bears 11 12 26 25 16 18 24 12 22 20 18.600 -0.600 Falling
Packers 21 14 22 21 18 17 21 17 19 16 18.600 1.289 Rising
Cowboys 17 21 25 16 25 22 14 18 15 15 18.800 -1.689 Falling
Bills 18 18 21 20 23 14 22 22 25 23 20.600 -0.711 Falling
Ravens 22 29 17 18 19 23 23 20 20 19 21.000 0.111 Rising
Jets 24 24 15 26 20 21 26 23 21 22 22.200 2.800 Rising
Giants 27 13 19 24 26 27 25 27 17 24 22.900 0.211 Rising
Buccaneers 19 31 18 22 21 24 19 29 23 26 23.200 -1.422 Falling
Falcons 25 28 23 23 22 28 20 25 27 25 24.600 0.511 Rising
Vikings 26 23 24 27 27 29 27 26 26 27 26.200 -0.644 Falling
Browns 28 17 30 29 31 30 29 24 31 28 27.700 -0.700 Falling
Raiders 31 30 29 28 29 26 30 31 29 29 29.200 -0.200 Falling
Redskins 29 27 31 32 28 25 31 30 30 30 29.300 -0.411 Falling
Texans 30 25 32 30 32 31 28 28 32 31 29.900 0.544 Rising
Jaguars 32 32 28 31 30 32 32 32 28 32 30.900 -0.011 Falling

Observations:

  • Though they're duking it out in the Subjective lists, the Seahawks and Broncos aren't as close in the Objective lists.
  • Arizona is ranked above 4 playoff teams in the Objective list. Not sure if I'd take comfort in that or be distraught as a Cardinals fan.
  • Chargers higher than 12th overall in the Objective list.
  • Jacksonville is still the worst in the league.

Objective Standard Deviation

Objective
Football Outsiders Team Efficiency Team Rankings Sagarin BeatGraphs Aikman Efficiency Pro Football Reference Cold Hard Football Facts Massey ARGH Standard Deviation Change since last period
Seahawks 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0.300 -0.643 Falling
Saints 4 2 5 5 5 7 5 6 7 5 1.375 -0.886 Falling
Raiders 31 30 29 28 29 26 30 31 29 29 1.400 -0.014 Falling
Panthers 3 8 3 4 2 3 4 3 4 3 1.552 -0.148 Falling
Jaguars 32 32 28 31 30 32 32 32 28 32 1.578 -0.017 Falling
Vikings 26 23 24 27 27 29 27 26 26 27 1.600 -0.715 Falling
Patriots 5 9 7 7 4 10 8 8 8 6 1.721 -0.210 Falling
Redskins 29 27 31 32 28 25 31 30 30 30 2.003 0.211 Rising
Texans 30 25 32 30 32 31 28 28 32 31 2.166 0.000 No Change
Chargers 12 15 11 11 7 13 11 15 11 12 2.182 -0.357 Falling
Broncos 2 3 6 3 9 2 2 7 3 4 2.300 -0.078 Falling
Packers 21 14 22 21 18 17 21 17 19 16 2.498 -1.704 Falling
Falcons 25 28 23 23 22 28 20 25 27 25 2.498 0.265 Rising
Steelers 15 11 13 15 17 20 18 14 18 17 2.561 -0.907 Falling
Colts 13 16 9 8 8 11 10 10 6 9 2.683 -0.176 Falling
Eagles 8 5 12 12 12 6 13 9 12 11 2.683 -0.806 Falling
Titans 20 22 20 14 14 16 16 16 14 18 2.720 0.226 Rising
49ers 6 6 1 2 11 5 3 5 2 2 2.830 -0.003 Falling
Bengals 9 4 8 9 3 4 9 2 10 8 2.836 0.087 Rising
Cardinals 10 7 4 6 13 12 6 11 5 7 2.982 -0.962 Falling
Bills 18 18 21 20 23 14 22 22 25 23 3.040 0.397 Rising
Jets 24 24 15 26 20 21 26 23 21 22 3.092 0.467 Rising
Ravens 22 29 17 18 19 23 23 20 20 19 3.286 -0.095 Falling
Cowboys 17 21 25 16 25 22 14 18 15 15 3.945 -0.122 Falling
Browns 28 17 30 29 31 30 29 24 31 28 4.051 -0.139 Falling
Buccaneers 19 31 18 22 21 24 19 29 23 26 4.143 -0.146 Falling
Chiefs 7 19 16 10 10 9 7 4 9 10 4.158 -0.485 Falling
Rams 14 26 10 13 15 15 12 19 13 13 4.290 -0.110 Falling
Dolphins 23 20 14 17 6 19 15 21 16 14 4.544 0.839 Rising
Giants 27 13 19 24 26 27 25 27 17 24 4.636 -0.089 Falling
Bears 11 12 26 25 16 18 24 12 22 20 5.389 1.306 Rising
Lions 16 10 27 19 24 8 17 13 24 21 5.974 -0.577 Falling

Observations:

  • Much less agreement overall in this list than in the Subjective rankings list.
  • NFC teams take the bulk of the most and least consistently-ranked teams.

Overall Average

Subj vs Obj
Subjective Average Objective Average Average Change since last period
Seahawks 1.556 1.100 1.328 0.339 Rising
Broncos 1.556 4.100 2.828 -0.134 Falling
Panthers 3.667 3.700 3.683 -0.150 Falling
49ers 3.889 4.300 4.094 -0.072 Falling
Patriots 4.333 7.200 5.767 0.144 Rising
Saints 6.667 5.100 5.883 0.884 Rising
Bengals 6.889 6.600 6.744 0.623 Rising
Cardinals 10.778 8.100 9.439 -1.189 Falling
Chiefs 8.889 10.100 9.494 -0.361 Falling
Colts 9.000 10.000 9.500 0.311 Rising
Eagles 9.333 10.000 9.667 0.372 Rising
Chargers 12.444 11.800 12.122 0.228 Rising
Steelers 14.444 15.800 15.122 1.500 Rising
Packers 12.111 18.600 15.356 3.338 Rising
Bears 15.556 18.600 17.078 -0.878 Falling
Rams 19.333 15.000 17.167 -0.639 Falling
Dolphins 18.444 16.500 17.472 -2.961 Falling
Cowboys 17.333 18.800 18.067 -1.611 Falling
Ravens 15.889 21.000 18.444 -1.138 Falling
Titans 21.889 17.000 19.444 0.589 Rising
Lions 21.111 17.900 19.506 -0.084 Falling
Jets 19.111 22.200 20.656 2.694 Rising
Giants 22.222 22.900 22.561 0.495 Rising
Bills 24.556 20.600 22.578 -1.034 Falling
Buccaneers 26.556 23.200 24.878 -0.989 Falling
Vikings 24.778 26.200 25.489 -0.161 Falling
Falcons 26.556 24.600 25.578 0.478 Rising
Browns 27.778 27.700 27.739 -0.139 Falling
Raiders 29.889 29.200 29.544 -0.294 Falling
Jaguars 28.778 30.900 29.839 -0.395 Falling
Redskins 30.667 29.300 29.983 -0.039 Falling
Texans 32.000 29.900 30.950 0.272 Rising

Observations:

  • Seahawks retain top spot. Nearly twice as good as the Broncos are.
  • Face it Steelers fans, missed calls aside, the better team made the playoffs.
  • Interesting how the Chargers basically stand on their own at ~12. The next nearest teams — above or below — are about 3 spots away.
  • Amusing that the NFC's 6th seed — the Saints — are ranked above the AFC's 3rd–through–6th seeds.

Overall Standard Deviation

Subj vs Obj
Subjective Average Objective Average Standard Deviation Change since last period
Seahawks 1.556 1.100 0.567 -0.462 Falling
Raiders 29.889 29.200 1.141 -0.109 Falling
Panthers 3.667 3.700 1.259 -0.093 Falling
Saints 6.667 5.100 1.348 -0.641 Falling
Vikings 24.778 26.200 1.428 -0.493 Falling
Chargers 12.444 11.800 1.651 -0.506 Falling
Redskins 30.667 29.300 1.731 0.109 Rising
Jaguars 28.778 30.900 1.774 -0.258 Falling
Texans 32.000 29.900 1.889 0.208 Rising
Patriots 4.333 7.200 2.007 0.000 No Change
Steelers 14.444 15.800 2.109 -0.551 Falling
Broncos 1.556 4.100 2.125 0.068 Rising
49ers 3.889 4.300 2.125 -0.003 Falling
Colts 9.000 10.000 2.137 -0.346 Falling
Bengals 6.889 6.600 2.148 0.040 Rising
Eagles 9.333 10.000 2.202 -0.443 Falling
Falcons 26.556 24.600 2.325 0.056 Rising
Cardinals 10.778 8.100 2.699 -0.108 Falling
Cowboys 17.333 18.800 3.059 -0.207 Falling
Bills 24.556 20.600 3.084 0.289 Rising
Browns 27.778 27.700 3.109 0.097 Rising
Titans 21.889 17.000 3.180 0.047 Rising
Jets 19.111 22.200 3.242 0.629 Rising
Chiefs 8.889 10.100 3.283 -0.180 Falling
Ravens 15.889 21.000 3.499 -1.065 Falling
Buccaneers 26.556 23.200 3.503 -0.308 Falling
Giants 22.222 22.900 3.514 0.182 Rising
Dolphins 18.444 16.500 3.574 0.757 Rising
Packers 12.111 18.600 3.789 0.574 Rising
Rams 19.333 15.000 3.927 0.140 Rising
Bears 15.556 18.600 4.332 0.765 Rising
Lions 21.111 17.900 4.783 -0.141 Falling

Observations:

  • 5 of the 7 most consistently–ranked teams are in the NFC.
  • 6 of the 7 least consistently–ranked teams are in the NFC.
  • Patriots deviation did not change at all overall this week.
  • Chargers continue their season-long trend of being one of the more consistently-ranked teams.

Difference in Averages

Subj vs Obj
Subjective Average Objective Average Standard Deviation Change since last period
Packers 12.111 18.600 6.489 4.100 Rising
Ravens 15.889 21.000 5.111 -2.500 Rising
Jets 19.111 22.200 3.089 -0.211 Rising
Bears 15.556 18.600 3.044 -0.556 Rising
Patriots 4.333 7.200 2.867 0.245 Rising
Broncos 1.556 4.100 2.544 0.155 Rising
Jaguars 28.778 30.900 2.122 -0.767 Rising
Cowboys 17.333 18.800 1.467 0.156 Rising
Vikings 24.778 26.200 1.422 0.966 Rising
Steelers 14.444 15.800 1.356 1.712 Rising
Chiefs 8.889 10.100 1.211 0.144 Rising
Colts 9.000 10.000 1.000 0.178 Rising
Giants 22.222 22.900 0.678 0.567 Rising
Eagles 9.333 10.000 0.667 1.189 Rising
49ers 3.889 4.300 0.411 -0.433 Rising
Panthers 3.667 3.700 0.033 -0.234 Rising
Browns 27.778 27.700 -0.078 1.122 Rising
Bengals 6.889 6.600 -0.289 -0.222 Rising
Seahawks 1.556 1.100 -0.456 0.211 Rising
Chargers 12.444 11.800 -0.644 0.056 Rising
Raiders 29.889 29.200 -0.689 -0.189 Rising
Redskins 30.667 29.300 -1.367 0.744 Rising
Saints 6.667 5.100 -1.567 -0.700 Rising
Dolphins 18.444 16.500 -1.944 -1.366 Rising
Falcons 26.556 24.600 -1.956 -0.067 Rising
Texans 32.000 29.900 -2.100 -0.544 Rising
Cardinals 10.778 8.100 -2.678 -2.178 Rising
Lions 21.111 17.900 -3.211 -1.255 Rising
Buccaneers 26.556 23.200 -3.356 0.866 Rising
Bills 24.556 20.600 -3.956 -0.645 Rising
Rams 19.333 15.000 -4.333 -0.389 Rising
Titans 21.889 17.000 -4.889 -0.156 Rising

Observations:

  • Are the Packers better again with Rodgers back and they're just being held down by their recent games with Flynn at the helm? Or are the pundits giving them too much credit? We'll find out this weekend.
  • Pick your reasoning, but the Ravens weren't as good this season as many want to believe.
  • 8 of the 12 teams with an "over-ranking" greater than 1.000 are AFC teams. This includes four of the six AFC playoff teams.
  • Chargers and Bengals — who square–off this Sunday – are both slightl under-ranked.
  • 7 of the 11 teams "under-ranked" by more than 1.000 are NFC teams
  • Looking at the bottom 5 of this list, you could easily make a "5 biggest underachievers" list for 2013, and these would be a solid 5 teams on that list.

Sources

Subjective Objective
ESPN Football Outsiders
CBS Team Efficiency
USA Today Team Rankings
ProFootballTalk Sagarin
NFL.com BeatGraphs
SB Nation Aikman Efficiency
Reddit Pro Football Reference
Associated Press Cold Hard Football Facts
ProFootballFocus Massey
ARGH

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