2013 NFL Power Ranking Consensus, Week 3: Chargers and Chiefs climbing the ranks

Ronnie Brown is happy with the Chargers' ranking - Howard Smith-USA TODAY Sports

The San Diego Chargers shocked the world by taking down Chip Kelly's "unstoppable" offense this past Sunday? They were rewarded handsomely by the power rankers.

That was one of the more fun wins in recent memory, wasn't it? It was a statement win: the San Diego Chargers are capable of winning a shootout. Who cares about the subpar defense, did you notice Philip Rivers has been fixed?!

The overall narrative when it comes to talking about the Chargers this week has been, "yeah they won, but ...", which is valid. Despite recent trends showing they should be, let's not anoint the Chargers as Super Bowl champions just yet. Still, it was a great win and the Chargers were rewarded nicely in the rankings.

Notable Quotes

This season, Philip Rivers has delivered a big "FU" -- as in, five touchdown passes to you, Eddie Royal -- to his detractors. All those who said Rivers' game was in decline and that the Chargers wideout stunk had to eat it on Sunday.

How's this for a stat line? Rivers was 36-of-47 passing for 419 yards and three scores. He even had a 12-yard run, which, for him, is like Tony Dorsett going for 99.

-- NFL.com

The Chargers continue to be the NFL's Rubik's Cube. As soon as you think you have them figured out, they reveal another totally screwed up side. Kudos to Mike McCoy, though, on his first win -- and especially for keeping his team together on a short week after a Monday night meltdown against Houston.

-- Sports Illustrated

Philip Rivers showed up in a big way Sunday. Rivers was 7-of-9 against extra rushers in the fourth quarter, including the crucial TD to Eddie Royal.

-- ESPN

Division Averages

Division Avg Ranking
NFC West 11.9375
NFC North 14.7500
AFC East 15.4250
AFC West 15.5375
NFC South 15.9750
AFC South 18.6125
AFC North 19.8125
NFC East 19.9500

Observations

  • So last week, all four NFC teams were ranked higher than all four AFC teams. Things have shifted quite a bit this week.

Stock Rising

Team Week 2 Average Week 3 Average Difference
SDG 25.865 18.063 7.802
KC 21.635 14.542 7.093
BUF 25.750 20.292 5.458
MIA 16.250 11.063 5.187
ARI 25.692 21.021 4.671

Observations

  • Oh man, it's so satisfying to see the Chargers atop this list.
  • Chiefs aren't too far behind either. The Chargers and Chiefs actually are why the AFC West climbed as a division so much this week to become the 4th-best division in the NFL.

Stock Falling

Team Week 2 Average Week 3 Average Difference
WAS 16.904 24.354 -7.450
SF 2.769 7.083 -4.314
CAR 17.500 21.438 -3.938
PHI 15.808 19.521 -3.713
IND 13.635 16.917 -3.282

Observations

  • Everyone off the Redskins bandwagon! RGIII isn't the second coming! Okay, that's a stretch, but Washington has some issues still.
  • After looking impressive in their opening game, it looked like the 49ers missed their flight to Seattle

Subjective Average

Subjective
ESPN Fox CBS USA Today Sports Illustrated ProFootballTalk NFL.com SportingNews SB Nation Reddit Associated Press ProFootballFocus Average Change since last period
Broncos 2 1 1 2 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 1.333 0.513 Rising
Seahawks 1 2 2 1 2 2 1 1 2 2 2 2 1.667 1.025 Rising
49ers 3 3 6 3 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3.417 -1.878 Falling
Texans 4 4 4 6 3 3 5 4 4 5 4 5 4.250 0.673 Rising
Packers 5 6 8 4 5 5 4 6 6 4 5 4 5.167 0.987 Rising
Patriots 7 5 3 9 8 8 6 5 5 10 7 6 6.583 -1.198 Falling
Saints 8 11 5 5 6 7 8 7 7 6 6 8 7.000 0.231 Rising
Bears 9 7 9 7 7 10 7 8 8 7 8 9 8.000 1.308 Rising
Falcons 6 8 7 8 10 9 9 10 9 8 9 7 8.333 -0.102 Falling
Bengals 10 9 12 11 12 11 10 11 10 9 13 10 10.667 0.564 Rising
Ravens 11 12 15 10 13 6 12 9 11 11 12 12 11.167 -0.552 Falling
Chiefs 13 10 11 12 9 13 13 12 13 12 10 11 11.583 6.186 Rising
Dolphins 12 13 10 14 11 12 11 14 12 13 11 14 12.250 5.750 Rising
Cowboys 15 14 13 13 14 16 14 13 15 14 14 13 14.000 -2.231 Falling
Colts 14 15 14 17 16 19 15 15 14 16 15 17 15.583 -2.814 Falling
Chargers 16 16 17 18 20 14 16 20 21 17 16 19 17.500 8.731 Rising
Eagles 19 19 18 20 23 15 17 16 18 15 17 15 17.667 -3.052 Falling
Rams 17 18 16 16 17 20 18 18 20 20 18 18 18.000 -1.538 Falling
Lions 18 17 21 19 22 18 20 19 16 18 19 21 19.000 -2.923 Falling
Titans 22 20 19 15 15 23 22 22 17 22 20 23 20.000 1.308 Rising
Giants 20 24 22 21 19 22 25 17 24 19 23 16 21.000 -3.538 Falling
Cardinals 21 23 20 22 21 17 19 25 22 23 21 26 21.667 3.718 Rising
Bills 26 21 25 23 18 24 21 26 26 26 22 22 23.333 3.667 Rising
Redskins 24 26 27 26 28 26 24 23 19 21 25 20 24.083 -5.775 Falling
Vikings 23 25 24 25 24 25 26 21 25 24 24 24 24.167 -2.628 Falling
Steelers 25 27 23 24 26 29 29 24 27 27 27 25 26.083 -1.852 Falling
Jets 28 29 26 30 25 28 27 28 23 28 26 29 27.250 0.058 Rising
Panthers 27 28 29 31 30 27 23 27 28 25 28 27 27.500 -4.500 Falling
Raiders 29 31 28 29 27 21 30 29 29 29 30 31 28.583 1.571 Rising
Buccaneers 30 22 30 28 29 31 28 30 30 30 29 30 28.917 -1.455 Falling
Browns 31 30 31 27 31 30 31 31 31 31 31 28 30.250 -0.250 Falling
Jaguars 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32.000 0.000 No Change

Observations:

  • Last week, the 49ers were at the top of the subjective rankings. This week, it's the Broncos. The same thing happened last year: a team gets to the top of the rankings, and they promptly lose the next week. Hmmm, put Oakland down for Upset of the Week?
  • Seattle is barely behind the Broncos, but the Broncos got twice as many first-place votes as Seattle.
  • The Chargers are 1/6th a spot higher than the Eagles this week.
  • Three of four AFC West teams are ranked in the top half of the league.
  • Surprise sleeper: Dolphins?

Subjective Standard Deviation

Subjective
ESPN Fox CBS USA Today Sports Illustrated ProFootballTalk NFL.com SportingNews SB Nation Reddit Associated Press ProFootballFocus Standard Deviation Change since last period
Jaguars 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 0.000 0.000 No Change
Seahawks 1 2 2 1 2 2 1 1 2 2 2 2 0.471 -0.350 Falling
Broncos 2 1 1 2 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 0.471 -0.298 Falling
Texans 4 4 4 6 3 3 5 4 4 5 4 5 0.829 -0.440 Falling
49ers 3 3 6 3 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 0.862 0.363 Rising
Cowboys 15 14 13 13 14 16 14 13 15 14 14 13 0.913 -0.933 Falling
Bears 9 7 9 7 7 10 7 8 8 7 8 9 1.000 -0.682 Falling
Packers 5 6 8 4 5 5 4 6 6 4 5 4 1.143 -0.263 Falling
Falcons 6 8 7 8 10 9 9 10 9 8 9 7 1.179 -1.045 Falling
Bengals 10 9 12 11 12 11 10 11 10 9 13 10 1.179 -0.244 Falling
Vikings 23 25 24 25 24 25 26 21 25 24 24 24 1.213 -0.848 Falling
Dolphins 12 13 10 14 11 12 11 14 12 13 11 14 1.299 -0.920 Falling
Browns 31 30 31 27 31 30 31 31 31 31 31 28 1.299 0.059 Rising
Chiefs 13 10 11 12 9 13 13 12 13 12 10 11 1.320 -0.904 Falling
Rams 17 18 16 16 17 20 18 18 20 20 18 18 1.354 -0.781 Falling
Colts 14 15 14 17 16 19 15 15 14 16 15 17 1.441 -1.524 Falling
Saints 8 11 5 5 6 7 8 7 7 6 6 8 1.581 -0.425 Falling
Lions 18 17 21 19 22 18 20 19 16 18 19 21 1.683 -0.843 Falling
Steelers 25 27 23 24 26 29 29 24 27 27 27 25 1.847 -0.307 Falling
Jets 28 29 26 30 25 28 27 28 23 28 26 29 1.876 -0.061 Falling
Patriots 7 5 3 9 8 8 6 5 5 10 7 6 1.891 0.680 Rising
Panthers 27 28 29 31 30 27 23 27 28 25 28 27 2.021 -0.521 Falling
Chargers 16 16 17 18 20 14 16 20 21 17 16 19 2.021 -0.271 Falling
Ravens 11 12 15 10 13 6 12 9 11 11 12 12 2.115 -0.223 Falling
Buccaneers 30 22 30 28 29 31 28 30 30 30 29 30 2.253 0.607 Rising
Eagles 19 19 18 20 23 15 17 16 18 15 17 15 2.285 -1.406 Falling
Cardinals 21 23 20 22 21 17 19 25 22 23 21 26 2.357 0.299 Rising
Bills 26 21 25 23 18 24 21 26 26 26 22 22 2.494 0.346 Rising
Raiders 29 31 28 29 27 21 30 29 29 29 30 31 2.532 1.182 Rising
Redskins 24 26 27 26 28 26 24 23 19 21 25 20 2.722 -0.817 Falling
Giants 20 24 22 21 19 22 25 17 24 19 23 16 2.739 0.302 Rising
Titans 22 20 19 15 15 23 22 22 17 22 20 23 2.799 0.128 Rising

Observations:

  • Jags: yup.
  • The Broncos and Seahawks having the same Standard Deviation just means they are battling for the top spot. Right now they could really just be interchangeable, I think the deciding factor would be where the game was played if they played each other.
  • Chargers one of the more inconsistently-ranked teams.
  • The Chargers' next opponent - the Titans - are the least consistently-ranked team; though there's a decent number of rankers who think they're 22-23.

Objective Average

Objective
Football Outsiders Team Rankings Sagarin BeatGraphs Aikman Efficiency Pro Football Reference Massey ARGH Average Change since last period
Broncos 1 1 5 8 2 1 1 4 2.875 -1.875 Falling
Seahawks 2 2 10 5 3 2 2 1 3.375 -0.375 Falling
Patriots 4 3 1 4 19 4 3 2 5.000 -2.000 Falling
Saints 6 8 7 1 18 3 5 8 7.000 1.000 Rising
Texans 10 7 4 2 5 18 6 5 7.125 0.875 Rising
Dolphins 15 4 18 3 4 14 9 12 9.875 4.625 Rising
Bears 8 9 12 7 6 24 8 6 10.000 0.000 No Change
Falcons 9 10 9 6 20 7 11 11 10.375 2.625 Rising
49ers 12 5 2 12 28 20 4 3 10.750 -6.750 Falling
Packers 3 11 3 21 15 28 7 7 11.875 -5.875 Falling
Ravens 13 6 11 14 24 17 10 9 13.000 -4.000 Falling
Bengals 7 12 14 16 11 23 12 10 13.125 -0.625 Falling
Panthers 5 18 24 24 14 5 16 17 15.375 -3.375 Falling
Lions 19 23 15 26 8 15 17 14 17.125 -0.625 Falling
Bills 21 15 25 15 13 11 15 23 17.250 7.250 Rising
Cowboys 23 24 8 17 23 8 21 15 17.375 0.125 Rising
Chiefs 17 22 30 9 1 10 24 27 17.500 8.000 Rising
Rams 26 13 26 13 17 13 13 21 17.750 2.750 Rising
Jets 24 19 28 18 10 9 18 18 18.000 3.500 Rising
Colts 18 14 21 10 12 19 26 26 18.250 -3.750 Falling
Chargers 22 17 16 11 22 25 14 22 18.625 6.875 Rising
Buccaneers 14 25 19 28 9 6 25 29 19.375 -0.875 Falling
Cardinals 28 20 29 20 16 12 19 19 20.375 5.625 Rising
Giants 25 26 6 27 29 16 23 16 21.000 -2.500 Falling
Eagles 11 27 22 23 7 29 27 25 21.375 -4.375 Falling
Titans 27 16 23 19 21 22 20 24 21.500 -0.500 Falling
Vikings 30 21 20 31 27 21 22 20 24.000 1.000 Rising
Redskins 16 31 17 32 26 32 30 13 24.625 -9.125 Falling
Steelers 20 30 13 30 30 30 28 28 26.125 -1.625 Falling
Raiders 29 29 31 22 25 27 29 31 27.875 2.625 Rising
Browns 31 28 27 25 31 26 31 30 28.625 0.875 Rising
Jaguars 32 32 32 29 32 31 32 32 31.500 0.500 Rising

Observations:

  • More sources! New this week: Massey and ARGH ratings. Those are in addition to old standbys returning this week.
  • Still using the DAVE rankings for Football Outsiders
  • Chargers are all over the board, and in fact are kind of the opposite to the Buccaneers. Some sites are high on Bucs and down on Chargers, or vice-versa.
  • The Patriots may not have looked impressive in their first two games, but they're still doing something right.
  • It's no longer unanimous that the Jaguars are the worst team. Amusingly, the two sites that don't have the Jaguars ranked last do have the Redskins as last.
  • Aikman has the Chiefs ranked 1st. That seems like a bit of a ... stretch. In fact, the Chiefs are ranked anywhere from 1st to 30th.

Objective Standard Deviation

Objective
Football Outsiders Team Rankings Sagarin BeatGraphs Aikman Efficiency Pro Football Reference Massey ARGH Standard Deviation Change since last period
Jaguars 32 32 32 29 32 31 32 32 1.000 1.000 Rising
Browns 31 28 27 25 31 26 31 30 2.288 0.788 Rising
Broncos 1 1 5 8 2 1 1 4 2.421 2.421 Rising
Seahawks 2 2 10 5 3 2 2 1 2.736 1.736 Rising
Raiders 29 29 31 22 25 27 29 31 2.891 2.391 Rising
Titans 27 16 23 19 21 22 20 24 3.123 -0.877 Falling
Falcons 9 10 9 6 20 7 11 11 3.998 2.998 Rising
Vikings 30 21 20 31 27 21 22 20 4.301 -0.699 Falling
Bengals 7 12 14 16 11 23 12 10 4.484 1.984 Rising
Chargers 22 17 16 11 22 25 14 22 4.526 3.026 Rising
Texans 10 7 4 2 5 18 6 5 4.649 3.649 Rising
Bills 21 15 25 15 13 11 15 23 4.737 3.237 Rising
Saints 6 8 7 1 18 3 5 8 4.743 4.743 Rising
Ravens 13 6 11 14 24 17 10 9 5.196 1.196 Rising
Lions 19 23 15 26 8 15 17 14 5.231 4.731 Rising
Cardinals 28 20 29 20 16 12 19 19 5.314 4.314 Rising
Dolphins 15 4 18 3 4 14 9 12 5.372 1.872 Rising
Patriots 4 3 1 4 19 4 3 2 5.385 4.385 Rising
Rams 26 13 26 13 17 13 13 21 5.449 -3.051 Falling
Bears 8 9 12 7 6 24 8 6 5.590 1.590 Rising
Colts 18 14 21 10 12 19 26 26 5.629 1.129 Rising
Steelers 20 30 13 30 30 30 28 28 5.883 1.383 Rising
Jets 24 19 28 18 10 9 18 18 5.937 5.437 Rising
Cowboys 23 24 8 17 23 8 21 15 6.143 1.643 Rising
Panthers 5 18 24 24 14 5 16 17 6.855 0.855 Rising
Giants 25 26 6 27 29 16 23 16 7.246 4.746 Rising
Redskins 16 31 17 32 26 32 30 13 7.482 -1.018 Falling
Eagles 11 27 22 23 7 29 27 25 7.516 5.516 Rising
Buccaneers 14 25 19 28 9 6 25 29 8.260 0.760 Rising
Packers 3 11 3 21 15 28 7 7 8.358 5.358 Rising
49ers 12 5 2 12 28 20 4 3 8.671 7.671 Rising
Chiefs 17 22 30 9 1 10 24 27 9.421 6.921 Rising

Observations:

  • Remember above how I said the Chiefs were ranked anywhere from 1st to 30th? Well that gives them the title of least consistently-ranked team.
  • 49ers, Packers and Buccaneers aren't too far behind the Chiefs.
  • Interesting: 8 of the 9 most inconsistently-ranked teams are in the NFC.
  • Chargers are in the top 30% in ranking consistency, though their Standard Deviation is still relatively high.

Overall Average

Subj vs Obj
Subjective Average Objective Average Average Change since last period
Broncos 1.333 2.875 2.104 -0.681 Falling
Seahawks 1.667 3.375 2.521 0.325 Rising
Texans 4.250 7.125 5.688 0.774 Rising
Patriots 6.583 5.000 5.792 -1.600 Falling
Saints 7.000 7.000 7.000 0.615 Rising
49ers 3.417 10.750 7.083 -4.314 Falling
Packers 5.167 11.875 8.521 -2.444 Falling
Bears 8.000 10.000 9.000 0.654 Rising
Falcons 8.333 10.375 9.354 1.261 Rising
Dolphins 12.250 9.875 11.063 5.187 Rising
Bengals 10.667 13.125 11.896 -0.031 Falling
Ravens 11.167 13.000 12.083 -2.275 Falling
Chiefs 11.583 17.500 14.542 7.093 Rising
Cowboys 14.000 17.375 15.688 -1.053 Falling
Colts 15.583 18.250 16.917 -3.282 Falling
Rams 18.000 17.750 17.875 0.606 Rising
Chargers 17.500 18.625 18.063 7.802 Rising
Lions 19.000 17.125 18.063 -1.775 Falling
Eagles 17.667 21.375 19.521 -3.713 Falling
Bills 23.333 17.250 20.292 5.458 Rising
Titans 20.000 21.500 20.750 0.404 Rising
Giants 21.000 21.000 21.000 -3.019 Falling
Cardinals 21.667 20.375 21.021 4.671 Rising
Panthers 27.500 15.375 21.438 -3.938 Falling
Jets 27.250 18.000 22.625 1.779 Rising
Vikings 24.167 24.000 24.083 -0.814 Falling
Buccaneers 28.917 19.375 24.146 -1.165 Falling
Redskins 24.083 24.625 24.354 -7.450 Falling
Steelers 26.083 26.125 26.104 -1.739 Falling
Raiders 28.583 27.875 28.229 2.098 Rising
Browns 30.250 28.625 29.438 0.312 Rising
Jaguars 32.000 31.500 31.750 0.250 Rising

Observations:

  • The Broncos retain their top spot, with the Seahawks still not far behind.
  • Does it console anyone out there that the Chargers lost in Week 1 to the third-highest ranked team (overall) in the NFL?
  • It's nice to see that even overall, the top-12 is evenly split between NFC and AFC teams. If we seeded teams based on rankings, the Chiefs would just miss out on the playoffs.
  • Chargers remain right around the middle.

Overall Standard Deviation

Subj vs Obj
Subjective Average Objective Average Standard Deviation Change since last period
Jaguars 32.000 31.500 0.678 0.678 Rising
Broncos 1.333 2.875 1.746 0.974 Rising
Browns 30.250 28.625 1.934 0.645 Rising
Seahawks 1.667 3.375 1.956 1.102 Rising
Raiders 28.583 27.875 2.704 1.429 Rising
Falcons 8.333 10.375 2.868 0.213 Rising
Vikings 24.167 24.000 2.879 -0.019 Falling
Titans 20.000 21.500 3.023 0.137 Rising
Bengals 10.667 13.125 3.214 1.549 Rising
Saints 7.000 7.000 3.240 1.354 Rising
Chargers 17.500 18.625 3.309 1.092 Rising
Texans 4.250 7.125 3.323 1.704 Rising
Rams 18.000 17.750 3.604 -0.329 Falling
Lions 19.000 17.125 3.673 1.310 Rising
Dolphins 12.250 9.875 3.730 1.025 Rising
Bears 8.000 10.000 3.750 1.596 Rising
Ravens 11.167 13.000 3.780 1.102 Rising
Patriots 6.583 5.000 3.788 2.352 Rising
Cardinals 21.667 20.375 3.877 1.915 Rising
Colts 15.583 18.250 3.953 0.687 Rising
Steelers 26.083 26.125 3.986 1.392 Rising
Cowboys 14.000 17.375 4.281 1.207 Rising
Bills 23.333 17.250 4.647 2.406 Rising
Giants 21.000 21.000 5.050 2.579 Rising
Redskins 24.083 24.625 5.188 0.562 Rising
Eagles 17.667 21.375 5.388 1.783 Rising
Jets 27.250 18.000 6.062 3.382 Rising
Packers 5.167 11.875 6.287 4.579 Rising
49ers 3.417 10.750 6.590 5.566 Rising
Chiefs 11.583 17.500 6.704 3.236 Rising
Buccaneers 28.917 19.375 7.224 2.850 Rising
Panthers 27.500 15.375 7.519 2.581 Rising

Observations:

  • There's consensus at the top and bottom of the rankings.
  • There's relatively good consensus about the Chargers' positioning.

Difference in Averages

Subj vs Obj
Subjective Average Objective Average Standard Deviation Change since last period
49ers 3.417 10.750 7.333 4.871 Rising
Packers 5.167 11.875 6.708 6.862 Rising
Chiefs 11.583 17.500 5.917 -1.814 Rising
Eagles 17.667 21.375 3.708 1.323 Rising
Cowboys 14.000 17.375 3.375 -2.356 Rising
Texans 4.250 7.125 2.875 -0.202 Rising
Colts 15.583 18.250 2.667 0.936 Rising
Bengals 10.667 13.125 2.458 1.189 Rising
Falcons 8.333 10.375 2.042 -2.727 Rising
Bears 8.000 10.000 2.000 1.308 Rising
Ravens 11.167 13.000 1.833 3.448 Rising
Seahawks 1.667 3.375 1.708 1.400 Rising
Broncos 1.333 2.875 1.542 2.388 Rising
Titans 20.000 21.500 1.500 1.808 Rising
Chargers 17.500 18.625 1.125 1.856 Rising
Redskins 24.083 24.625 0.542 3.350 Rising
Steelers 26.083 26.125 0.042 -0.227 Rising
Saints 7.000 7.000 0.000 -0.769 Rising
Giants 21.000 21.000 0.000 -1.039 Rising
Vikings 24.167 24.000 -0.167 -3.629 Rising
Rams 18.000 17.750 -0.250 -4.289 Rising
Jaguars 32.000 31.500 -0.500 -0.500 Rising
Raiders 28.583 27.875 -0.708 -1.054 Rising
Cardinals 21.667 20.375 -1.292 -1.907 Rising
Patriots 6.583 5.000 -1.583 0.802 Rising
Browns 30.250 28.625 -1.625 -1.125 Rising
Lions 19.000 17.125 -1.875 -2.298 Rising
Dolphins 12.250 9.875 -2.375 1.125 Rising
Bills 23.333 17.250 -6.083 -3.583 Rising
Jets 27.250 18.000 -9.250 -3.442 Rising
Buccaneers 28.917 19.375 -9.542 -0.580 Rising
Panthers 27.500 15.375 -12.125 -1.125 Rising

Observations:

  • Early in the season, the Objective Rankings aren't as reliable predictors as they are in the later season. However, do the 49ers have more to fall in coming games?
  • Are rankers a little too high on the Chiefs so far?
  • Chargers are pretty consistent in their ranking across the board. Not phenomenal, nor are they terrible.
  • Wow, are the rankers way down on the Bills, Jets, Buccaneers and Panthers. It'll be interesting to see which way they correct, if they end up playing better than the perception is or not.

Sources

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