FanPost

Is Ryan Mathews a fumbler?

I think most people have accepted the idea that Ryan Mathews has a fumbling problem. I wanted to look at league fumbling statistics over the last 3 years to see how Mathews compares. I had the thought in mind that while I agree Mathews certainly had some fumbling issues, it may have been blown out of proportion.

These are league wide statistics from 2010-2012, and include running backs with at least 100 carries within any league year. I decided to leave out QB rushing statistics, since most have an unusually high amount of fumbles, which I feel unfairly skew the data for RB. (Please forgive my ignorance formatting these data).

Year_Carries_Fumbles_Lost

2010__9286__126__83

2011__9092__100__58

2012__8556__104__67

Total_26934_330__208

The league averages tell us that on any carry, the chance of a fumble is 1.22%, and of those fumbles, the likelihood of losing the ball is 63%.

Put another way, for every 300 carries, an average running back has 3.66 fumbles and 2.31 fumbles lost.

Compare these league averages against Ryan Mathews career:

Year_Carries_Fumbles_Lost

2010__158___5__3

2011__222___5__2

2012__184___2__2

Total_564__12__7

For Ryan Mathews, the chance of a fumble on any given carry is 2.13%, and of those fumbles, the likelihood of losing the ball is 58%.

Put another way, for every 300 carries, his average is 6.38 fumbles and 3.7 fumbles lost.

Apparently the numbers do verify that Ryan Mathews has a problem fumbling. His chance of fumbling on any given carry is 74% higher than the league average for RB with at least 100 carries.

This FanPost was written by a member of the Bolts From The Blue community and does not necessarily reflect the views of the Bolts From The Blue editors or SB Nation.

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