Fantasy Football Perspective: KUBIAK Projections for San Diego Chargers

Justin K. Aller

Soon fantasy football leagues will start drafting teams, and you want to make sure you have a Charger or two to root for. Who should you draft, and when should you draft them?

Throughout the preseason and season, we'll be taking a look at the fantasy stock of various Charger players, and evaluating which guys you can satisfy your homerdom while still fielding a competitive fantasy football team.

We are going to start off looking at the projection system that I have been personally using for years, the KUBIAK projection system from the good folks at Football Outsiders. The guys at Football Outsiders have been provide top-notch advanced statistics and analysis for years, and I highly recommend checking them out.

Looking at the projections does not prove flattering for Chargers players in fantasy football this year. All in all, the highest drafted Charger in fantasy leagues is Danario Alexander, with an ADP of 81.5. Below is a chart of how Football Outsiders ranks players with Yahoo default league settings, and their average draft positions.

Player KUBIAK ADP
Ryan Mathews 59 87.4
Antonio Gates 74 99.6
Malcom Floyd 100 134.9
Danario Alexander 162 81.5
Philip Rivers 227 126.5
Danny Woodhead 285 123.3
Keenan Allen 291 -
Vincent Brown 306 136.4

If you are going to make a homer pick, it looks like your best bets are to use a mid round pick on Mathews or Gates, or a late round pick on Floyd.

Why are the Chargers so low on draft boards? Part of it is history, and part is uncertainty. The Chargers have not been very good fantasy options the last few season. Most of the position players have shown to be injury-prone, and Rivers has not been a top fantasy option for a couple of years now.

Also, no one is quite certain how the touches will be split. Football Outsiders has the large bulk of the carries going to Mathews, but it isn't unreasonable that Woodhead would receive a more significant portion of the carries. At receivers and tight end, no one knows how the targets will be split. Right now Alexander is drafting highly due to his strong finish to the season last year. Floyd has missed an average of 3-4 games each season for the last three years. Vincent Brown has yet to prove himself, and Keenan Allen is an rookie unknown.

My recommendation? In a 10 team league, grab Mathews in the 7th or 8th rounds, and handcuff him with Woodhead as one of your final picks. Failing that, grab a Chargers receiver in one of the late rounds. Allen or Brown are worth a late round slot in keeper/dynasty leagues. Pass on Rivers for the time being.

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