SB Nation

John Crean | December 4, 2013

2013 NFL Power Rankings Consensus, Week 14

Seahawks Flying High

When it comes to the Power Rankings, there's Seattle, and then there's everyone else.

I know I've talked about it before, but there's a common misconception about the Chargers this year, one I think stems from the period of time the Chargers were oscillating between wins and losses. See, there's this perception that the Chargers are very inconsistent this year. In fact, however, they're one of the, if not the most consistent team this year.

"How can this be?" you ask? Well, it's all about match-ups. The Chargers have a had a consistently-excellent offense, ranking in the top-3 of nearly all the objective ratings sites in Offense all season long. They've had an average Special Teams, so that's been a non-factor. Bringing the team down has been their historically-bad Defense. How bad is the defense? Remember the disastrous 2010 Chargers Special Teams? Yeah, they're that bad. The defense is worse (23.6%) than the offense is good (22.0%).

So how does a team with a top-flight offense and a historically bad defense seem so inconsistent? It's all about match-ups. The Chargers have won 5 games this year. 4 of those 5 wins have come against teams with defenses ranked in the bottom-3rd according to Football Outsiders (20th, 25th, 27th and 29th). As soon as they played teams with average or better defenses and a competent offense, they lose. (I can't explain the Oakland loss, however.)

This is a very consistent team, let's put all this inconsistency talk behind us, k?

Notable Quotes

The team with the best chance to finish with an all-time worst rating is now San Diego, although the Chargers' defense did improve a little bit this week.

Even after a shaky 23-of-37 showing versus Cincinnati, Philip Rivers remains within striking distance of Drew Brees' single-season record for completion percentage -- Rivers sits at an even 70 percent; Brees finished at 71.2. Of course, Brees' Saints also hung 547 points on the board that season (2011). The Chargers are on pace for just 372.

Dropping four of their last five, the Chargers fall two spots but find themselves still just on the outside edge of the wild card race. With three home games to come, all is not lost.

Division Averages

Division Week 14 Average Week 13 Average Difference
NFC West 8.8571 8.5119 -0.3452
AFC West 13.7262 13.4524 -0.2738
NFC South 14.7500 14.7381 -0.0119
AFC North 17.6548 17.5000 -0.1548
AFC East 17.9286 18.0476 0.119
NFC East 17.9643 18.2262 0.2619
NFC North 18.6548 18.5952 -0.0596
AFC South 22.4643 22.9286 0.4643

Stock Rising

Team Week 13 Average Week 14 Average Difference
MIA 19.181 15.359 3.822
DET 14.042 11.464 2.578
BAL 18.889 16.409 2.480
MIN 28.431 26.168 2.263
NYG 21.708 20.132 1.576

Stock Falling

Team Week 13 Average Week 14 Average Difference
GB 16.611 20.373 -3.762
NYJ 24.361 26.645 -2.284
NO 2.792 4.809 -2.017
ARI 9.056 10.695 -1.639
CLE 25.639 27.118 -1.479

Teams just don't move as much as they used to in the early weeks of the season. #HipsterGrandpaTweet #IronicHashtags

Subjective Average

Subjective
ESPN Fox CBS USA Today Sports Illustrated ProFootballTalk NFL.com SB Nation Reddit Associated Press ProFootballFocus Average Change since last period
Seahawks 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1.000 0.000 No Change
Broncos 2 3 3 2 4 4 2 2 2 2 2 2.546 0.871 Rising
Panthers 3 2 5 4 2 2 3 3 3 4 5 3.273 0.894 Rising
Patriots 4 4 2 5 3 3 4 4 4 3 3 3.546 0.621 Rising
Saints 5 5 4 3 6 5 5 6 5 5 4 4.818 -2.568 Falling
49ers 6 7 8 6 5 7 7 5 7 6 6 6.364 1.136 Rising
Chiefs 7 8 6 7 9 8 6 9 6 7 7 7.273 -0.940 Falling
Bengals 8 6 7 8 8 6 8 7 8 8 8 7.455 -0.205 Falling
Eagles 10 9 10 11 7 10 13 12 10 10 10 10.182 1.318 Rising
Colts 9 11 9 12 12 12 11 11 9 9 11 10.546 0.204 Rising
Lions 12 10 12 9 13 13 10 8 11 11 9 10.727 1.690 Rising
Cowboys 11 12 11 10 10 9 12 14 13 12 13 11.546 0.287 Rising
Cardinals 13 13 13 13 14 11 9 10 12 13 12 12.091 -2.758 Falling
Ravens 14 14 14 14 11 14 16 13 14 14 14 13.818 3.182 Rising
Dolphins 17 15 16 16 15 19 14 15 15 15 17 15.818 4.099 Rising
Bears 15 20 17 15 18 18 15 18 16 16 15 16.636 -1.553 Falling
Chargers 16 17 15 18 20 16 18 16 17 17 18 17.091 -1.258 Falling
Steelers 18 16 21 19 19 21 20 20 19 18 19 19.091 -1.258 Falling
Giants 22 18 20 17 16 22 21 17 20 20 20 19.364 3.053 Rising
Rams 20 21 22 20 17 17 22 19 18 19 21 19.636 -1.553 Falling
Packers 19 24 19 21 23 15 17 30 21 21 16 20.546 -3.879 Falling
Titans 21 19 18 22 21 20 19 21 22 22 22 20.636 -1.219 Falling
Jets 23 22 23 24 30 23 23 28 23 23 23 24.091 -1.258 Falling
Bills 24 25 30 23 27 24 26 27 24 24 24 25.273 -0.940 Falling
Vikings 28 23 25 25 22 27 27 24 28 25 28 25.636 2.781 Rising
Raiders 25 27 24 26 29 29 25 23 25 28 27 26.182 0.401 Rising
Buccaneers 26 26 28 27 24 28 28 25 26 26 25 26.273 -1.023 Falling
Browns 27 31 27 28 28 26 24 22 27 27 26 26.636 -1.469 Falling
Jaguars 31 30 26 31 25 25 30 31 29 29 30 28.818 1.682 Rising
Falcons 29 28 29 29 26 30 31 26 30 30 29 28.818 1.515 Rising
Redskins 30 29 31 30 31 31 29 29 31 31 31 30.273 -1.856 Falling
Texans 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32.000 0.000 No Change

Observations:

  • I'm sure if Seattle could have moved up even more, they would have. Instead, they'll have to settle for being the unanimous number-1 for another week.
  • Beating the Chiefs again was far less impressive for Denver than it was the first time around.
  • Another loss, another slip in the rankings for the Chiefs.
  • Chargers, Steelers and Jets all fell the same amount this week; neat.
  • Bears and Rams fell the same amount as well.

Subjective Standard Deviation

Subjective
ESPN Fox CBS USA Today Sports Illustrated ProFootballTalk NFL.com SB Nation Reddit Associated Press ProFootballFocus Standard Deviation Change since last period
Texans 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 0.000 0.000 No Change
Seahawks 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0.000 0.000 No Change
Broncos 2 3 3 2 4 4 2 2 2 2 2 0.782 -0.333 Falling
Bengals 8 6 7 8 8 6 8 7 8 8 8 0.782 -0.047 Falling
Patriots 4 4 2 5 3 3 4 4 4 3 3 0.782 -0.017 Falling
Saints 5 5 4 3 6 5 5 6 5 5 4 0.833 0.400 Rising
Redskins 30 29 31 30 31 31 29 29 31 31 31 0.862 0.222 Rising
49ers 6 7 8 6 5 7 7 5 7 6 6 0.881 0.117 Rising
Chiefs 7 8 6 7 9 8 6 9 6 7 7 1.052 0.581 Rising
Panthers 3 2 5 4 2 2 3 3 3 4 5 1.052 0.365 Rising
Ravens 14 14 14 14 11 14 16 13 14 14 14 1.113 -0.928 Falling
Colts 9 11 9 12 12 12 11 11 9 9 11 1.233 0.223 Rising
Buccaneers 26 26 28 27 24 28 28 25 26 26 25 1.286 -0.353 Falling
Chargers 16 17 15 18 20 16 18 16 17 17 18 1.311 -0.207 Falling
Dolphins 17 15 16 16 15 19 14 15 15 15 17 1.336 -1.129 Falling
Titans 21 19 18 22 21 20 19 21 22 22 22 1.367 -0.015 Falling
Steelers 18 16 21 19 19 21 20 20 19 18 19 1.379 -0.851 Falling
Cowboys 11 12 11 10 10 9 12 14 13 12 13 1.437 0.157 Rising
Cardinals 13 13 13 13 14 11 9 10 12 13 12 1.443 0.500 Rising
Eagles 10 9 10 11 7 10 13 12 10 10 10 1.466 -0.034 Falling
Falcons 29 28 29 29 26 30 31 26 30 30 29 1.527 0.903 Rising
Lions 12 10 12 9 13 13 10 8 11 11 9 1.601 -0.459 Falling
Bears 15 20 17 15 18 18 15 18 16 16 15 1.611 0.059 Rising
Rams 20 21 22 20 17 17 22 19 18 19 21 1.720 -0.711 Falling
Raiders 25 27 24 26 29 29 25 23 25 28 27 1.898 1.258 Rising
Bills 24 25 30 23 27 24 26 27 24 24 24 1.958 1.015 Rising
Giants 22 18 20 17 16 22 21 17 20 20 20 1.967 1.474 Rising
Vikings 28 23 25 25 22 27 27 24 28 25 28 2.012 1.150 Rising
Browns 27 31 27 28 28 26 24 22 27 27 26 2.186 0.235 Rising
Jaguars 31 30 26 31 25 25 30 31 29 29 30 2.249 1.603 Rising
Jets 23 22 23 24 30 23 23 28 23 23 23 2.391 0.573 Rising
Packers 19 24 19 21 23 15 17 30 21 21 16 4.008 1.229 Rising

Observations:

  • Another week, another consensus at the top and bottom of the lists.
  • More than half of the teams saw their Standard Deviation go up this week, so teams are moving and not consistently.
  • When it comes to "inconsistency" in the rankings, there's Green Bay, then there's everyone else.
  • Chargers actually in the top-half of the league in ranking consistency.

Objective Average

Objective
Football Outsiders Team Efficiency Team Rankings Sagarin BeatGraphs Aikman Efficiency Pro Football Reference Cold Hard Football Facts Massey ARGH Average Change since last period
Seahawks 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1.100 0.344 Rising
Panthers 3 9 2 3 2 1 2 2 3 2 2.900 1.100 Rising
Broncos 2 3 3 2 5 3 3 8 2 3 3.400 -0.067 Falling
Saints 4 2 5 5 6 8 5 3 5 5 4.800 -1.467 Falling
49ers 6 6 4 4 11 5 4 6 4 4 5.400 0.711 Rising
Patriots 5 10 6 8 4 9 7 7 7 6 6.900 -0.678 Falling
Bengals 7 4 10 9 3 6 9 5 12 8 7.300 0.478 Rising
Chiefs 8 22 15 6 7 7 6 4 6 7 8.800 -0.022 Falling
Cardinals 11 8 7 7 10 11 8 13 9 9 9.300 -0.522 Falling
Eagles 9 5 8 13 8 10 14 10 11 13 10.100 1.011 Rising
Colts 15 18 11 11 9 12 11 14 8 10 11.900 -0.122 Falling
Lions 13 7 17 15 17 4 13 9 15 12 12.200 3.467 Rising
Cowboys 14 23 9 10 16 18 12 16 10 11 13.900 -2.011 Falling
Dolphins 17 12 13 14 14 17 15 17 16 14 14.900 3.544 Rising
Rams 12 29 12 12 18 16 10 19 13 15 15.600 -0.378 Falling
Bears 10 14 23 20 19 14 19 11 20 17 16.700 -0.589 Falling
Titans 22 21 21 18 13 13 17 12 18 19 17.400 0.822 Rising
Chargers 18 16 18 16 15 20 16 21 17 18 17.500 -1.389 Falling
Ravens 23 25 20 17 22 15 18 15 19 16 19.000 1.778 Rising
Packers 21 11 26 23 21 21 20 18 21 20 20.200 -3.644 Falling
Steelers 16 17 19 21 26 22 22 20 22 22 20.700 -1.700 Falling
Giants 25 15 16 19 20 26 25 28 14 21 20.900 0.100 Rising
Buccaneers 19 28 14 22 12 24 21 23 23 24 21.000 0.333 Rising
Bills 20 19 28 24 32 19 24 22 29 23 24.000 -1.111 Falling
Falcons 24 24 22 25 29 31 23 29 25 25 25.700 0.522 Rising
Vikings 26 26 25 27 23 30 28 30 26 26 26.700 1.744 Rising
Raiders 31 31 29 26 25 25 26 27 24 28 27.200 0.578 Rising
Redskins 28 27 30 29 24 23 30 26 28 30 27.500 -0.278 Falling
Browns 29 13 31 30 30 28 29 25 32 29 27.600 -1.489 Falling
Texans 30 20 32 28 31 27 27 24 31 31 28.100 1.011 Rising
Jets 27 30 27 32 28 29 31 31 30 27 29.200 -3.311 Falling
Jaguars 32 32 24 31 27 32 32 32 27 32 30.100 1.233 Rising

Observations:

  • Again, the Seahawks are firmly planted at the top of rankings.
  • Carolina is now the second-best team in the objective lists, passing the Broncos.
  • Despite beating the Chiefs, Denver dropped.
  • Chargers dropped more than the Bengals climbed.
  • Jets in free-fall. At this rate they'll be the worst team in the league by next week.

Objective Standard Deviation

Objective
Football Outsiders Team Efficiency Team Rankings Sagarin BeatGraphs Aikman Efficiency Pro Football Reference Cold Hard Football Facts Massey ARGH Standard Deviation Change since last period
Seahawks 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 0.300 -0.656 Falling
Saints 4 2 5 5 6 8 5 3 5 5 1.536 0.122 Rising
Dolphins 17 12 13 14 14 17 15 17 16 14 1.700 -0.709 Falling
Patriots 5 10 6 8 4 9 7 7 7 6 1.700 -0.112 Falling
Broncos 2 3 3 2 5 3 3 8 2 3 1.744 0.589 Rising
Jets 27 30 27 32 28 29 31 31 30 27 1.778 -2.122 Falling
Chargers 18 16 18 16 15 20 16 21 17 18 1.803 -1.444 Falling
Cardinals 11 8 7 7 10 11 8 13 9 9 1.847 0.097 Rising
Vikings 26 26 25 27 23 30 28 30 26 26 2.052 0.411 Rising
49ers 6 6 4 4 11 5 4 6 4 4 2.059 0.689 Rising
Panthers 3 9 2 3 2 1 2 2 3 2 2.119 -0.420 Falling
Raiders 31 31 29 26 25 25 26 27 24 28 2.358 -0.171 Falling
Redskins 28 27 30 29 24 23 30 26 28 30 2.377 0.903 Rising
Eagles 9 5 8 13 8 10 14 10 11 13 2.625 -0.410 Falling
Bengals 7 4 10 9 3 6 9 5 12 8 2.685 -0.641 Falling
Steelers 16 17 19 21 26 22 22 20 22 22 2.722 -0.184 Falling
Falcons 24 24 22 25 29 31 23 29 25 25 2.795 0.310 Rising
Jaguars 32 32 24 31 27 32 32 32 27 32 2.809 1.245 Rising
Colts 15 18 11 11 9 12 11 14 8 10 2.844 -1.419 Falling
Ravens 23 25 20 17 22 15 18 15 19 16 3.286 -1.131 Falling
Titans 22 21 21 18 13 13 17 12 18 19 3.441 -0.016 Falling
Texans 30 20 32 28 31 27 27 24 31 31 3.590 -0.194 Falling
Packers 21 11 26 23 21 21 20 18 21 20 3.655 -1.722 Falling
Bears 10 14 23 20 19 14 19 11 20 17 4.051 0.180 Rising
Lions 13 7 17 15 17 4 13 9 15 12 4.094 1.386 Rising
Cowboys 14 23 9 10 16 18 12 16 10 11 4.182 -0.226 Falling
Bills 20 19 28 24 32 19 24 22 29 23 4.195 1.469 Rising
Buccaneers 19 28 14 22 12 24 21 23 23 24 4.583 0.500 Rising
Giants 25 15 16 19 20 26 25 28 14 21 4.700 -0.267 Falling
Browns 29 13 31 30 30 28 29 25 32 29 5.181 0.624 Rising
Chiefs 8 22 15 6 7 7 6 4 6 7 5.192 0.483 Rising
Rams 12 29 12 12 18 16 10 19 13 15 5.238 -0.608 Falling

Observations:

  • The consistency ranking here is much more linear than the Subjective list was.
  • More than half the teams saw their Standard Deviation go down.
  • Chargers are once again one of the more consistently-ranked teams.

Overall Average

Subj vs Obj
Subjective Average Objective Average Average Change since last period
Seahawks 1.000 1.100 1.050 0.172 Rising
Broncos 2.546 3.400 2.973 0.402 Rising
Panthers 3.273 2.900 3.086 0.997 Rising
Saints 4.818 4.800 4.809 -2.017 Falling
Patriots 3.546 6.900 5.223 -0.029 Falling
49ers 6.364 5.400 5.882 0.924 Rising
Bengals 7.455 7.300 7.377 0.137 Rising
Chiefs 7.273 8.800 8.036 -0.480 Falling
Eagles 10.182 10.100 10.141 1.165 Rising
Cardinals 12.091 9.300 10.695 -1.639 Falling
Colts 10.546 11.900 11.223 0.041 Rising
Lions 10.727 12.200 11.464 2.578 Rising
Cowboys 11.546 13.900 12.723 -0.862 Falling
Dolphins 15.818 14.900 15.359 3.822 Rising
Ravens 13.818 19.000 16.409 2.480 Rising
Bears 16.636 16.700 16.668 -1.071 Falling
Chargers 17.091 17.500 17.295 -1.323 Falling
Rams 19.636 15.600 17.618 -0.965 Falling
Titans 20.636 17.400 19.018 -0.199 Falling
Steelers 19.091 20.700 19.895 -1.478 Falling
Giants 19.364 20.900 20.132 1.576 Rising
Packers 20.546 20.200 20.373 -3.762 Falling
Buccaneers 26.273 21.000 23.636 -0.344 Falling
Bills 25.273 24.000 24.636 -1.025 Falling
Vikings 25.636 26.700 26.168 2.263 Rising
Jets 24.091 29.200 26.645 -2.284 Falling
Raiders 26.182 27.200 26.691 0.490 Rising
Browns 26.636 27.600 27.118 -1.479 Falling
Falcons 28.818 25.700 27.259 1.019 Rising
Redskins 30.273 27.500 28.886 -1.067 Falling
Jaguars 28.818 30.100 29.459 1.458 Rising
Texans 32.000 28.100 30.050 0.506 Rising

Observations:

  • The Broncos are nearly two full spots behind the Seahawks.
  • Jacksonville is finally out of the cellar!
  • Despite being the unanimous 32nd choice in the Subjective list, the Texans saw their overall ranking climb.
  • Vikings and Jets just passed each other, going opposite directions.
  • Giants quietly climbing back up the board.

Overall Standard Deviation

Subj vs Obj
Subjective Average Objective Average Standard Deviation Change since last period
Seahawks 1.000 1.100 0.213 -0.450 Falling
Saints 4.818 4.800 1.220 0.101 Rising
Broncos 2.546 3.400 1.397 0.264 Rising
Chargers 17.091 17.500 1.578 -0.842 Falling
Dolphins 15.818 14.900 1.588 -0.960 Falling
49ers 6.364 5.400 1.630 0.361 Rising
Panthers 3.273 2.900 1.659 -0.084 Falling
Bengals 7.455 7.300 1.939 -0.342 Falling
Eagles 10.182 10.100 2.100 -0.196 Falling
Vikings 25.636 26.700 2.100 0.844 Rising
Patriots 3.546 6.900 2.122 0.446 Rising
Cardinals 12.091 9.300 2.158 0.781 Rising
Raiders 26.182 27.200 2.189 0.366 Rising
Redskins 30.273 27.500 2.236 1.005 Rising
Colts 10.546 11.900 2.260 -0.678 Falling
Steelers 19.091 20.700 2.274 -0.333 Falling
Jaguars 28.818 30.100 2.611 1.404 Rising
Falcons 28.818 25.700 2.714 0.067 Rising
Bears 16.636 16.700 3.029 0.190 Rising
Titans 20.636 17.400 3.038 0.476 Rising
Lions 10.727 12.200 3.141 0.285 Rising
Texans 32.000 28.100 3.152 0.292 Rising
Bills 25.273 24.000 3.285 1.235 Rising
Cowboys 11.546 13.900 3.285 0.241 Rising
Jets 24.091 29.200 3.318 0.048 Rising
Ravens 13.818 19.000 3.534 -0.239 Falling
Giants 19.364 20.900 3.624 0.277 Rising
Chiefs 7.273 8.800 3.742 0.411 Rising
Packers 20.546 20.200 3.848 -0.252 Falling
Browns 26.636 27.600 3.939 0.579 Rising
Buccaneers 26.273 21.000 4.219 0.693 Rising
Rams 19.636 15.600 4.322 -0.153 Falling

Observations:

  • Not really much more to add here ...

Difference in Averages

Subj vs Obj
Subjective Average Objective Average Standard Deviation Change since last period
Ravens 13.818 19.000 5.182 1.404 Rising
Jets 24.091 29.200 5.109 2.053 Rising
Patriots 3.546 6.900 3.355 1.299 Rising
Cowboys 11.546 13.900 2.355 2.299 Rising
Steelers 19.091 20.700 1.609 0.442 Rising
Giants 19.364 20.900 1.536 2.953 Rising
Chiefs 7.273 8.800 1.527 -0.918 Rising
Lions 10.727 12.200 1.473 -1.777 Rising
Colts 10.546 11.900 1.355 0.327 Rising
Jaguars 28.818 30.100 1.282 0.449 Rising
Vikings 25.636 26.700 1.064 1.036 Rising
Raiders 26.182 27.200 1.018 -0.177 Rising
Browns 26.636 27.600 0.964 0.020 Rising
Broncos 2.546 3.400 0.855 0.938 Rising
Chargers 17.091 17.500 0.409 0.131 Rising
Seahawks 1.000 1.100 0.100 -0.344 Rising
Bears 16.636 16.700 0.064 -0.964 Rising
Saints 4.818 4.800 -0.018 -1.101 Rising
Eagles 10.182 10.100 -0.082 0.307 Rising
Bengals 7.455 7.300 -0.155 -0.683 Rising
Packers 20.546 20.200 -0.346 -0.235 Rising
Panthers 3.273 2.900 -0.373 -0.206 Rising
Dolphins 15.818 14.900 -0.918 0.554 Rising
49ers 6.364 5.400 -0.964 0.425 Rising
Bills 25.273 24.000 -1.273 0.171 Rising
Redskins 30.273 27.500 -2.773 -1.578 Rising
Cardinals 12.091 9.300 -2.791 -2.235 Rising
Falcons 28.818 25.700 -3.118 0.993 Rising
Titans 20.636 17.400 -3.236 -2.041 Rising
Texans 32.000 28.100 -3.900 -1.011 Rising
Rams 19.636 15.600 -4.036 -1.175 Rising
Buccaneers 26.273 21.000 -5.273 -1.356 Rising

Observations:

  • Oh, Baltimore. We so desperately want you to be good!
  • A team from New York is overrated? Say it ain't so!
  • 12 teams have their rankings within 1 spot of each other. That's pretty good (Chargers are in that group).
  • Chicago gets the crown this week of "Closest to the Pin"
  • 11 of 16 AFC teams are some varying degree of "over-ranked".
  • Tampa Bay continues to be the favorite whipping boy of the NFL.

Sources

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