SB Nation

John Crean | December 19, 2013

2013 NFL Power Rankings Consensus, Week 16

Seahawks On Top Again

After a few weeks of bouncing between the first and second spots, the Seahawks are now the unanimous top pick across the board, courtesy of a Broncos loss and the Seahawks' beat-down of the Giants.

A week ago, people were abuzz about the Chargers stunning the nation by beating the Denver Broncos. "How did they do it?" people asked. "This was unexpected and unheard of!"

Then the same thing happened around the league to the other top contenders. All of a sudden, what San Diego accomplished in Denver was less impressive; It was just part of a collective bump in the road for the other top teams. That's not to say the Chargers didn't climb a little in the rankings this week — they did — I'm just saying given the Chargers' body of work this season, they didn't shoot up the rankings by any means.

I'm not here to whine. What the Chargers did in Denver was indeed impressive, but it was just one game. Know what else was one game? The matchup against Washington. As was the Tennessee game and the Miami games. If anything, the win over the Broncos is just that much more frustrating considering what could have been by now.

Notable Quotes

A Denver hiccup Thursday was excused when everyone else did the same Sunday. The Broncos should have home-field advantage, especially finishing against the Raiders and Texans -- a combined 6-22.

Could this be the team Denver least wants to see in the playoffs? The Chargers pushed the Broncos in an eight-point Week 10 loss and then took it to the AFC leaders last Thursday.

The San Diego Chargers may not be in the drivers seat for the playoffs, but they have found their groove. Fantastic games these past two weeks, including the "upset of the year" against the Broncos on Thursday. If the Chargers manage to sneak into the post season they will be very dangerous. In other news, The Chargers petitioned the NFL for Archie Manning to come out of retirement, so they could pull off the Manning Face Trifecta.

Division Averages

Division Week 16 Average Week 15 Average Difference
NFC West 7.9125 9.1750 1.2625
AFC West 13.2375 13.4750 0.2375
NFC South 14.6375 14.5250 -0.1125
AFC North 16.9125 17.1750 0.2625
AFC East 17.1250 17.3625 0.2375
NFC North 17.3875 18.1250 0.7375
NFC East 21.5500 19.4875 -2.0625
AFC South 23.2375 22.6750 -0.5625

Stock Rising

Team Week 15 Average Week 16 Average Difference
MIN 26.879 23.750 3.129
STL 20.162 17.800 2.362
SDG 15.818 13.600 2.218
BAL 16.146 14.200 1.946
PIT 20.313 18.500 1.813

Stock Falling

Team Week 15 Average Week 16 Average Difference
PHI 9.167 12.600 -3.433
DET 13.131 16.000 -2.869
DAL 16.222 18.800 -2.578
NYG 22.424 24.850 -2.426
JAX 27.283 29.350 -2.067

Subjective Average

Subjective
ESPN Fox CBS USA Today Sports Illustrated ProFootballTalk NFL.com SB Nation Reddit ProFootballFocus Average Change since last period
Seahawks 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1.000 0.455 Rising
Broncos 2 3 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 2.200 -0.564 Falling
49ers 3 2 4 4 2 6 6 3 5 3 3.800 1.473 Rising
Panthers 4 4 7 5 5 3 5 4 4 6 4.700 1.391 Rising
Saints 5 5 6 6 4 5 4 6 3 4 4.800 -1.527 Falling
Chiefs 6 6 5 3 7 7 3 7 6 7 5.700 1.482 Rising
Patriots 7 7 3 7 6 4 7 5 7 5 5.800 -1.800 Falling
Cardinals 8 9 9 8 12 10 9 8 9 9 9.100 1.264 Rising
Bengals 9 8 8 9 15 11 8 9 8 8 9.300 -2.027 Falling
Colts 10 10 10 10 14 13 11 10 10 14 11.200 0.800 Rising
Ravens 12 11 12 11 11 8 14 13 13 11 11.600 1.582 Rising
Bears 13 14 13 13 10 12 13 12 12 10 12.200 0.891 Rising
Dolphins 14 12 14 12 8 15 10 11 14 13 12.300 1.882 Rising
Eagles 11 16 11 14 16 9 12 16 11 12 12.800 -3.800 Falling
Chargers 15 13 15 17 9 16 16 15 15 16 14.700 1.936 Rising
Packers 16 17 17 16 13 14 15 18 17 17 16.000 2.091 Rising
Lions 17 15 16 15 20 20 17 14 16 15 16.500 -3.682 Falling
Cowboys 18 18 18 18 21 17 18 20 19 18 18.500 -2.500 Falling
Steelers 19 19 19 20 17 19 19 17 20 19 18.800 1.382 Rising
Rams 20 20 20 19 18 18 20 19 18 20 19.200 2.346 Rising
Titans 21 22 21 21 26 24 22 21 21 21 22.000 -0.273 Falling
Jets 22 23 22 23 22 21 21 26 22 25 22.700 -1.700 Falling
Vikings 23 21 24 26 19 26 24 23 26 24 23.600 3.491 Rising
Giants 26 25 23 24 29 25 23 24 23 22 24.400 -2.218 Falling
Buccaneers 24 26 25 27 25 27 25 25 25 23 25.200 -1.382 Falling
Bills 25 27 27 22 27 22 26 29 24 26 25.500 2.136 Rising
Falcons 28 24 26 25 23 29 29 27 30 28 26.900 2.282 Rising
Browns 27 30 29 28 28 28 28 22 27 27 27.400 -1.945 Falling
Jaguars 29 29 28 29 24 23 27 30 29 29 27.700 -2.245 Falling
Raiders 30 28 30 30 30 30 30 28 28 30 29.400 -1.218 Falling
Redskins 31 31 31 31 32 31 31 31 31 31 31.100 -0.009 Falling
Texans 32 32 32 32 31 32 32 32 32 32 31.900 0.009 Rising

Observations:

  • SI seems to be the one that's a little off-kilter this week judging by the colors that don't quite line up.
  • Without SI moving the Chargers up to the 9th spot, they only rose 1.3 spots this week. Several rankers didn't even move the Chargers at all.
  • Seahawks are unanimous at number 1 in the subjective list. Broncos near-unanimous at number 2.
  • Your bottom 3 are firmly cemented: Raiders, Redskins and Texans. All three teams beat the Chargers this year.

Subjective Standard Deviation

Subjective
ESPN Fox CBS USA Today Sports Illustrated ProFootballTalk NFL.com SB Nation Reddit ProFootballFocus Standard Deviation Change since last period
Seahawks 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0.000 -0.656 Falling
Texans 32 32 32 32 31 32 32 32 32 32 0.300 0.012 Rising
Redskins 31 31 31 31 32 31 31 31 31 31 0.300 0.012 Rising
Broncos 2 3 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 0.400 -0.081 Falling
Rams 20 20 20 19 18 18 20 19 18 20 0.872 -1.317 Falling
Raiders 30 28 30 30 30 30 30 28 28 30 0.917 -0.112 Falling
Steelers 19 19 19 20 17 19 19 17 20 19 0.980 -0.547 Falling
Saints 5 5 6 6 4 5 4 6 3 4 0.980 0.535 Rising
Panthers 4 4 7 5 5 3 5 4 4 6 1.100 0.307 Rising
Cowboys 18 18 18 18 21 17 18 20 19 18 1.118 -0.010 Falling
Cardinals 8 9 9 8 12 10 9 8 9 9 1.136 -0.090 Falling
Buccaneers 24 26 25 27 25 27 25 25 25 23 1.166 -0.026 Falling
Bears 13 14 13 13 10 12 13 12 12 10 1.249 -0.130 Falling
Patriots 7 7 3 7 6 4 7 5 7 5 1.400 0.547 Rising
49ers 3 2 4 4 2 6 6 3 5 3 1.400 0.187 Rising
Packers 16 17 17 16 13 14 15 18 17 17 1.483 -0.349 Falling
Chiefs 6 6 5 3 7 7 3 7 6 7 1.487 0.458 Rising
Jets 22 23 22 23 22 21 21 26 22 25 1.552 -0.448 Falling
Ravens 12 11 12 11 11 8 14 13 13 11 1.562 0.533 Rising
Titans 21 22 21 21 26 24 22 21 21 21 1.613 -0.765 Falling
Colts 10 10 10 10 14 13 11 10 10 14 1.661 0.455 Rising
Giants 26 25 23 24 29 25 23 24 23 22 1.908 0.159 Rising
Lions 17 15 16 15 20 20 17 14 16 15 1.962 -0.287 Falling
Browns 27 30 29 28 28 28 28 22 27 27 2.010 0.339 Rising
Dolphins 14 12 14 12 8 15 10 11 14 13 2.052 0.106 Rising
Bengals 9 8 8 9 15 11 8 9 8 8 2.100 0.964 Rising
Chargers 15 13 15 17 9 16 16 15 15 16 2.147 1.168 Rising
Vikings 23 21 24 26 19 26 24 23 26 24 2.154 0.273 Rising
Bills 25 27 27 22 27 22 26 29 24 26 2.156 0.436 Rising
Falcons 28 24 26 25 23 29 29 27 30 28 2.211 1.019 Rising
Jaguars 29 29 28 29 24 23 27 30 29 29 2.238 -0.537 Falling
Eagles 11 16 11 14 16 9 12 16 11 12 2.400 1.547 Rising

Observations:

  • NFC teams make up 11 of the top 16 teams in the "more consistently-ranked" teams. Not surprising.
  • Eagles are ranked about as consistently as they've played this year.
  • Most (not all) of the inconsistency can be blamed on SI.

Objective Average

Objective
Football Outsiders Team Efficiency Team Rankings Sagarin BeatGraphs Aikman Efficiency Pro Football Reference Cold Hard Football Facts Massey ARGH Average Change since last period
Seahawks 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1.000 0.222 Rising
Panthers 3 8 3 3 5 2 4 3 4 3 3.800 0.533 Rising
49ers 5 5 2 2 14 4 3 4 2 2 4.300 1.700 Rising
Broncos 2 3 6 4 10 3 2 7 3 5 4.500 -1.500 Falling
Saints 7 2 4 6 2 8 5 5 6 4 4.900 -0.567 Falling
Bengals 8 4 9 8 4 6 8 6 10 9 7.200 -0.978 Falling
Chiefs 4 19 12 5 11 5 6 2 5 6 7.500 0.167 Rising
Cardinals 10 7 5 7 13 11 7 10 7 8 8.500 -0.167 Falling
Patriots 6 11 8 9 9 10 9 8 9 7 8.600 -1.156 Falling
Colts 14 18 14 11 8 13 10 14 8 10 12.000 1.000 Rising
Dolphins 18 15 7 10 6 15 13 13 12 11 12.000 1.333 Rising
Eagles 11 6 15 15 12 9 17 9 14 16 12.400 -3.067 Falling
Bears 9 10 17 17 3 12 16 11 16 13 12.400 1.933 Rising
Chargers 12 16 11 12 7 14 12 15 11 15 12.500 2.500 Rising
Lions 16 9 22 19 20 7 14 12 19 17 15.500 -2.056 Falling
Rams 15 27 10 13 26 16 11 21 13 12 16.400 2.378 Rising
Ravens 20 26 13 14 15 17 18 16 15 14 16.800 2.311 Rising
Steelers 13 13 18 18 18 23 20 19 20 20 18.200 2.244 Rising
Packers 21 12 20 21 23 18 21 17 18 19 19.000 0.778 Rising
Cowboys 19 23 21 16 21 21 15 20 17 18 19.100 -2.656 Falling
Titans 22 21 27 20 16 20 19 18 21 21 20.500 -1.389 Falling
Buccaneers 17 30 16 23 19 22 22 22 23 22 21.600 -2.711 Falling
Bills 23 22 25 25 27 19 24 23 27 23 23.800 1.422 Rising
Vikings 24 20 19 22 28 28 25 24 24 25 23.900 2.767 Rising
Falcons 25 28 23 24 24 29 23 27 25 24 25.200 0.133 Rising
Giants 28 17 24 26 22 31 27 29 22 27 25.300 -2.633 Falling
Browns 27 14 29 29 25 27 26 25 30 28 26.000 0.111 Rising
Jets 26 29 26 27 17 25 30 31 26 26 26.300 0.367 Rising
Redskins 30 25 30 30 29 24 31 28 31 30 28.800 0.311 Rising
Raiders 31 31 31 28 30 26 29 30 29 29 29.400 -0.844 Falling
Texans 29 24 32 32 32 30 28 26 32 31 29.600 -0.600 Falling
Jaguars 32 32 28 31 31 32 32 32 28 32 31.000 -1.889 Falling

Observations:

  • After a week of looking in line with the other rankings, BeatGraphs got all broken after this last week of upsets.
  • Seahawks are unanimous on this list too. The Panthers are nearly 2 full spots behind them in 2nd place.
  • Sharp clustering of teams. Chargers included in the "Good, not great" teams, that includes Colts, Dolphins, Eagles and Bears.
  • Jaguars still holding down the fort at the bottom of the list.

Objective Standard Deviation

Objective
Football Outsiders Team Efficiency Team Rankings Sagarin BeatGraphs Aikman Efficiency Pro Football Reference Cold Hard Football Facts Massey ARGH Standard Deviation Change since last period
Seahawks 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0.000 -0.629 Falling
Patriots 6 11 8 9 9 10 9 8 9 7 1.357 -0.909 Falling
Raiders 31 31 31 28 30 26 29 30 29 29 1.497 -0.453 Falling
Jaguars 32 32 28 31 31 32 32 32 28 32 1.549 -2.322 Falling
Panthers 3 8 3 3 5 2 4 3 4 3 1.600 -1.527 Falling
Saints 7 2 4 6 2 8 5 5 6 4 1.868 0.814 Rising
Bengals 8 4 9 8 4 6 8 6 10 9 1.990 -0.539 Falling
Falcons 25 28 23 24 24 29 23 27 25 24 1.990 -0.759 Falling
Bills 23 22 25 25 27 19 24 23 27 23 2.272 -1.217 Falling
Cardinals 10 7 5 7 13 11 7 10 7 8 2.291 0.527 Rising
Redskins 30 25 30 30 29 24 31 28 31 30 2.315 0.032 Rising
Broncos 2 3 6 4 10 3 2 7 3 5 2.419 1.172 Rising
Cowboys 19 23 21 16 21 21 15 20 17 18 2.427 -0.943 Falling
Chargers 12 16 11 12 7 14 12 15 11 15 2.500 0.867 Rising
Texans 29 24 32 32 32 30 28 26 32 31 2.691 -0.676 Falling
Titans 22 21 27 20 16 20 19 18 21 21 2.730 -0.155 Falling
Vikings 24 20 19 22 28 28 25 24 24 25 2.809 1.395 Rising
Packers 21 12 20 21 23 18 21 17 18 19 2.898 -0.896 Falling
Steelers 13 13 18 18 18 23 20 19 20 20 2.960 -0.026 Falling
Colts 14 18 14 11 8 13 10 14 8 10 3.000 -0.019 Falling
Eagles 11 6 15 15 12 9 17 9 14 16 3.412 0.873 Rising
49ers 5 5 2 2 14 4 3 4 2 2 3.437 0.855 Rising
Dolphins 18 15 7 10 6 15 13 13 12 11 3.493 0.785 Rising
Jets 26 29 26 27 17 25 30 31 26 26 3.635 1.141 Rising
Ravens 20 26 13 14 15 17 18 16 15 14 3.655 0.307 Rising
Buccaneers 17 30 16 23 19 22 22 22 23 22 3.666 -1.129 Falling
Giants 28 17 24 26 22 31 27 29 22 27 3.900 -0.814 Falling
Bears 9 10 17 17 3 12 16 11 16 13 4.200 0.768 Rising
Browns 27 14 29 29 25 27 26 25 30 28 4.313 -0.839 Falling
Lions 16 9 22 19 20 7 14 12 19 17 4.674 1.473 Rising
Chiefs 4 19 12 5 11 5 6 2 5 6 4.801 0.329 Rising
Rams 15 27 10 13 26 16 11 21 13 12 5.834 0.261 Rising

Overall Average

Subj vs Obj
Subjective Average Objective Average Average Change since last period
Seahawks 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.338 Rising
Broncos 2.200 4.500 3.350 -1.032 Falling
49ers 3.800 4.300 4.050 1.586 Rising
Panthers 4.700 3.800 4.250 0.962 Rising
Saints 4.800 4.900 4.850 -1.047 Falling
Chiefs 5.700 7.500 6.600 0.824 Rising
Patriots 5.800 8.600 7.200 -1.478 Falling
Bengals 9.300 7.200 8.250 -1.503 Falling
Cardinals 9.100 8.500 8.800 0.548 Rising
Colts 11.200 12.000 11.600 0.900 Rising
Dolphins 12.300 12.000 12.150 1.608 Rising
Bears 12.200 12.400 12.300 1.412 Rising
Eagles 12.800 12.400 12.600 -3.433 Falling
Chargers 14.700 12.500 13.600 2.218 Rising
Ravens 11.600 16.800 14.200 1.946 Rising
Lions 16.500 15.500 16.000 -2.869 Falling
Packers 16.000 19.000 17.500 1.434 Rising
Rams 19.200 16.400 17.800 2.362 Rising
Steelers 18.800 18.200 18.500 1.813 Rising
Cowboys 18.500 19.100 18.800 -2.578 Falling
Titans 22.000 20.500 21.250 -0.831 Falling
Buccaneers 25.200 21.600 23.400 -2.046 Falling
Vikings 23.600 23.900 23.750 3.129 Rising
Jets 22.700 26.300 24.500 -0.667 Falling
Bills 25.500 23.800 24.650 1.779 Rising
Giants 24.400 25.300 24.850 -2.426 Falling
Falcons 26.900 25.200 26.050 1.208 Rising
Browns 27.400 26.000 26.700 -0.917 Falling
Jaguars 27.700 31.000 29.350 -2.067 Falling
Raiders 29.400 29.400 29.400 -1.031 Falling
Redskins 31.100 28.800 29.950 0.151 Rising
Texans 31.900 29.600 30.750 -0.295 Falling

Observations:

  • That sharp delineation from above carries over to the overall listing. There's Seattle, then there's the rest of the league.
  • Baltimore now joins the other teams in the "good, not great" list.
  • Overall now, the Jaguars, Raiders, Redskins and Texans are solidly the bottom 4.

Overall Standard Deviation

Subj vs Obj
Subjective Average Objective Average Standard Deviation Change since last period
Seahawks 1.000 1.000 0.000 -0.654 Falling
Raiders 29.400 29.400 1.241 -0.285 Falling
Panthers 4.700 3.800 1.445 -0.902 Falling
Saints 4.800 4.900 1.493 0.551 Rising
Cardinals 9.100 8.500 1.833 0.031 Rising
Cowboys 18.500 19.100 1.913 -0.508 Falling
Patriots 5.800 8.600 1.965 -0.411 Falling
Redskins 31.100 28.800 2.012 0.179 Rising
Broncos 2.200 4.500 2.080 0.945 Rising
Steelers 18.800 18.200 2.225 -0.079 Falling
Texans 31.900 29.600 2.233 -0.458 Falling
Falcons 26.900 25.200 2.269 -0.532 Falling
Bengals 9.300 7.200 2.300 0.335 Rising
Titans 22.000 20.500 2.364 -0.560 Falling
Bills 25.500 23.800 2.372 -0.552 Falling
Colts 11.200 12.000 2.458 0.189 Rising
Vikings 23.600 23.900 2.508 0.808 Rising
Jaguars 27.700 31.000 2.535 -1.245 Falling
Chargers 14.700 12.500 2.577 1.031 Rising
49ers 3.800 4.300 2.636 0.651 Rising
Packers 16.000 19.000 2.748 -0.257 Falling
Dolphins 12.300 12.000 2.868 0.510 Rising
Eagles 12.800 12.400 2.956 1.132 Rising
Bears 12.200 12.400 3.100 0.506 Rising
Giants 24.400 25.300 3.103 -0.323 Falling
Buccaneers 25.200 21.600 3.262 -0.878 Falling
Jets 22.700 26.300 3.324 -0.274 Falling
Browns 27.400 26.000 3.437 -0.249 Falling
Lions 16.500 15.500 3.619 0.882 Rising
Chiefs 5.700 7.500 3.666 0.561 Rising
Ravens 11.600 16.800 3.829 0.044 Rising
Rams 19.200 16.400 4.400 0.098 Rising

Difference in Averages

Subj vs Obj
Subjective Average Objective Average Standard Deviation Change since last period
Ravens 11.600 16.800 5.200 -0.729 Rising
Jets 22.700 26.300 3.600 -2.067 Rising
Jaguars 27.700 31.000 3.300 -0.357 Rising
Packers 16.000 19.000 3.000 1.313 Rising
Patriots 5.800 8.600 2.800 -0.644 Rising
Broncos 2.200 4.500 2.300 0.936 Rising
Chiefs 5.700 7.500 1.800 1.315 Rising
Giants 24.400 25.300 0.900 0.415 Rising
Colts 11.200 12.000 0.800 -0.200 Rising
Cowboys 18.500 19.100 0.600 0.156 Rising
49ers 3.800 4.300 0.500 -0.227 Rising
Vikings 23.600 23.900 0.300 0.724 Rising
Bears 12.200 12.400 0.200 -1.042 Rising
Saints 4.800 4.900 0.100 -0.961 Rising
Raiders 29.400 29.400 0.000 -0.374 Rising
Seahawks 1.000 1.000 0.000 0.232 Rising
Dolphins 12.300 12.000 -0.300 0.549 Rising
Eagles 12.800 12.400 -0.400 -0.733 Rising
Cardinals 9.100 8.500 -0.600 1.430 Rising
Steelers 18.800 18.200 -0.600 -0.863 Rising
Panthers 4.700 3.800 -0.900 0.858 Rising
Lions 16.500 15.500 -1.000 -1.626 Rising
Browns 27.400 26.000 -1.400 -2.057 Rising
Titans 22.000 20.500 -1.500 1.116 Rising
Falcons 26.900 25.200 -1.700 2.149 Rising
Bills 25.500 23.800 -1.700 0.714 Rising
Bengals 9.300 7.200 -2.100 -1.049 Rising
Chargers 14.700 12.500 -2.200 -0.564 Rising
Redskins 31.100 28.800 -2.300 -0.320 Rising
Texans 31.900 29.600 -2.300 0.609 Rising
Rams 19.200 16.400 -2.800 -0.032 Rising
Buccaneers 25.200 21.600 -3.600 1.329 Rising

Observations:

  • 6 of the 7 teams with an "over-ranking" greater than 1 are in the AFC.
  • 6 of the 10 teams with an "under-ranking" more than 1 are in the AFC.
  • That means of the 17 teams with more than 1 spot of disparity, 12 are in the AFC. The conference is in shambles.
  • On the flip-side, Oakland is ranked exactly where they should be at 29.400. Neat.

Sources

Subjective Objective
ESPN Football Outsiders
Fox Team Efficiency
CBS Team Rankings
USA Today Sagarin
Sports Illustrated BeatGraphs
ProFootballTalk Aikman Efficiency
NFL.com Pro Football Reference
SB Nation Cold Hard Football Facts
Reddit Massey
ProFootballFocus ARGH

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