SB Nation

John Crean | November 27, 2013

2013 NFL Power Rankings Consensus, Week 13

New teams at the top and bottom

The Broncos and Jaguars have been dethroned this week at their respective posts at the top and bottom of the rankings. Who takes their place?

Yes, I missed the rankings last week. I won't go into too much detail but I'll tell you that planning for and executing a child's first birthday is way more work than you could ever imagine if you never did it before. Now that that's behind me, I have time again to be able to compile these lists.

With that out of the way, how have things changed in the last two weeks? Well, for starters, the Broncos lost again and the Jaguars won again. You know who else lost this week? Kansas City. *snickering* That makes 2 in a row for the vaunted Chiefs, and with Denver coming up again, they're looking at the possibility of a 3-game losing streak. Are Kansas City's struggles reflected in the rankings? Yes and no. I'll explain as we go on.

Division Averages

Division Week 13 Average Week 11 Average Difference
NFC West 8.5119 11.0000 2.4881
AFC West 13.4524 12.6375 -0.8149
NFC South 14.7381 16.8375 2.0994
AFC North 17.5000 18.2750 0.775
AFC East 18.0476 17.7125 -0.3351
NFC East 18.2262 18.3125 0.0863
NFC North 18.5952 15.1375 -3.4577
AFC South 22.9286 22.0875 -0.8411

Wow, the NFC West has a divisional average of 8.5. That's one strong division. The next nearest — the once–dominant AFC West — is almost 5 spots away from them.

Stock Rising

Team Week 11 Average Week 13 Average Difference
PIT 24.828 18.417 6.411
TB 29.232 23.292 5.940
ARI 14.045 9.056 4.989
STL 20.828 16.653 4.175
CIN 10.192 7.514 2.678

Stock Falling

Team Week 11 Average Week 13 Average Difference
NYJ 18.778 24.361 -5.583
DET 8.621 14.042 -5.421
CLE 20.540 25.639 -5.099
GB 11.909 16.611 -4.702
HOU 26.071 30.556 -4.485

As you can see, the rising and falling charts are comparing the rankings from two weeks ago.

Subjective Average

Subjective
ESPN Fox CBS USA Today Sports Illustrated ProFootballTalk NFL.com SportingNews SB Nation Reddit Associated Press ProFootballFocus Average Change since last period
Seahawks 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1.000 1.182 Rising
Saints 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 2 3 2.250 2.114 Rising
Broncos 3 5 4 3 5 5 3 3 2 2 4 2 3.417 -1.417 Falling
Patriots 4 4 3 5 3 4 5 5 5 5 3 4 4.167 0.560 Rising
Panthers 5 3 5 4 4 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 4.167 2.197 Rising
Chiefs 6 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 6 6 7 6.333 -4.333 Falling
Bengals 8 6 7 7 8 7 8 6 6 8 8 8 7.250 3.023 Rising
49ers 7 8 8 8 7 8 7 8 9 7 7 6 7.500 0.227 Rising
Cardinals 9 10 9 9 10 9 9 9 8 9 9 12 9.333 5.758 Rising
Colts 10 11 10 12 12 13 10 10 11 10 10 10 10.750 -2.932 Falling
Eagles 11 9 11 13 9 11 13 12 14 13 11 11 11.500 3.864 Rising
Cowboys 12 12 12 10 11 10 12 11 15 12 12 13 11.833 2.894 Rising
Lions 13 14 13 11 17 14 11 13 10 11 13 9 12.417 -4.508 Falling
Bears 14 15 15 14 18 17 14 14 18 14 14 14 15.083 -3.083 Falling
Chargers 15 16 14 16 19 15 17 17 13 15 17 16 15.833 0.531 Rising
Packers 17 21 17 15 15 12 16 15 23 17 15 17 16.667 -3.849 Falling
Ravens 18 18 18 18 16 20 18 16 12 16 19 15 17.000 0.091 Rising
Steelers 16 13 19 19 14 19 20 18 20 20 18 18 17.833 6.713 Rising
Rams 19 17 21 17 13 16 22 20 17 19 16 20 18.083 3.463 Rising
Titans 20 19 16 20 20 18 19 19 19 21 21 21 19.417 1.310 Rising
Dolphins 21 22 20 21 24 22 15 21 16 18 20 19 19.917 0.992 Rising
Giants 23 23 23 22 22 23 23 22 22 22 22 22 22.417 -0.235 Falling
Jets 22 20 22 24 25 21 21 23 27 23 23 23 22.833 -8.833 Falling
Bills 24 24 25 23 23 24 26 26 24 24 24 25 24.333 2.758 Rising
Browns 25 30 24 25 26 25 24 25 21 25 26 26 25.167 -5.531 Falling
Buccaneers 27 25 27 26 21 26 27 24 25 26 25 24 25.250 5.659 Rising
Raiders 26 27 26 27 27 27 25 27 26 27 27 27 26.583 0.508 Rising
Vikings 28 26 29 29 28 28 29 28 29 29 29 29 28.417 0.129 Rising
Redskins 29 28 28 28 30 29 28 29 28 28 28 28 28.417 -4.690 Falling
Falcons 30 29 31 30 31 31 31 30 30 30 31 30 30.333 -1.333 Falling
Jaguars 31 31 30 31 29 30 30 31 31 31 30 31 30.500 1.409 Rising
Texans 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32.000 -4.636 Falling

Observations:

  • The Chargers had an impressive win this week over the Chiefs. Why didn't they rise more? Well, these numbers are compared to two weeks ago. The Chargers had fallen last week and rose again this week. Also, allowing Kansas City's pedestrian offense to put up 38 points tends to temper excitement about your team.
  • Seattle is now a unanimous top pick. The Saints were near unanimous at number 2.
  • Denver is still ranked above New England, despite Sunday's result.
  • Are the Panthers a top-5 team? Survey says: yes.
  • Poor Houston. After beginning the season as a favorite to make the Super Bowl, the mighty Texans are now a unanimous bottom pick.

Subjective Standard Deviation

Subjective
ESPN Fox CBS USA Today Sports Illustrated ProFootballTalk NFL.com SportingNews SB Nation Reddit Associated Press ProFootballFocus Standard Deviation Change since last period
Seahawks 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0.000 -0.575 Falling
Texans 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 0.000 -2.532 Falling
Saints 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 2 3 0.433 -0.635 Falling
Chiefs 6 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 6 6 7 0.471 -0.574 Falling
Giants 23 23 23 22 22 23 23 22 22 22 22 22 0.493 -1.912 Falling
Falcons 30 29 31 30 31 31 31 30 30 30 31 30 0.624 -0.504 Falling
Redskins 29 28 28 28 30 29 28 29 28 28 28 28 0.640 -0.496 Falling
Raiders 26 27 26 27 27 27 25 27 26 27 27 27 0.640 -1.090 Falling
Jaguars 31 31 30 31 29 30 30 31 31 31 30 31 0.646 0.358 Rising
Panthers 5 3 5 4 4 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 0.687 -0.463 Falling
49ers 7 8 8 8 7 8 7 8 9 7 7 6 0.764 -0.098 Falling
Patriots 4 4 3 5 3 4 5 5 5 5 3 4 0.799 0.182 Rising
Bengals 8 6 7 7 8 7 8 6 6 8 8 8 0.829 -0.133 Falling
Vikings 28 26 29 29 28 28 29 28 29 29 29 29 0.862 -0.915 Falling
Cardinals 9 10 9 9 10 9 9 9 8 9 9 12 0.943 -1.166 Falling
Bills 24 24 25 23 23 24 26 26 24 24 24 25 0.943 0.043 Rising
Colts 10 11 10 12 12 13 10 10 11 10 10 10 1.010 -0.182 Falling
Broncos 3 5 4 3 5 5 3 3 2 2 4 2 1.115 0.070 Rising
Cowboys 12 12 12 10 11 10 12 11 15 12 12 13 1.280 -0.898 Falling
Titans 20 19 16 20 20 18 19 19 19 21 21 21 1.382 -0.161 Falling
Eagles 11 9 11 13 9 11 13 12 14 13 11 11 1.500 -0.557 Falling
Chargers 15 16 14 16 19 15 17 17 13 15 17 16 1.518 -0.749 Falling
Bears 14 15 15 14 18 17 14 14 18 14 14 14 1.552 -0.206 Falling
Buccaneers 27 25 27 26 21 26 27 24 25 26 25 24 1.639 1.125 Rising
Jets 22 20 22 24 25 21 21 23 27 23 23 23 1.818 -0.356 Falling
Browns 25 30 24 25 26 25 24 25 21 25 26 26 1.951 -0.617 Falling
Ravens 18 18 18 18 16 20 18 16 12 16 19 15 2.041 -0.704 Falling
Lions 13 14 13 11 17 14 11 13 10 11 13 9 2.060 0.977 Rising
Steelers 16 13 19 19 14 19 20 18 20 20 18 18 2.230 0.793 Rising
Rams 19 17 21 17 13 16 22 20 17 19 16 20 2.431 0.200 Rising
Dolphins 21 22 20 21 24 22 15 21 16 18 20 19 2.465 -0.247 Falling
Packers 17 21 17 15 15 12 16 15 23 17 15 17 2.779 1.194 Rising

Observations:

  • Unanimous agreement at the top and bottom of the rankings.
  • Saints are pretty comfortable at number 2, as are the Chiefs at ~6 and Giants at ~22.
  • No surprise here: Miami is one of the most inconsistently-ranked teams.
  • Green Bay, however takes the crown this week.

Objective Average

Objective
Football Outsiders Team Efficiency Team Rankings Sagarin BeatGraphs Pro Football Reference Cold Hard Football Facts Massey ARGH Average Change since last period
Seahawks 1 2 1 1 4 1 1 1 1 1.444 0.445 Rising
Saints 4 1 3 4 6 4 2 4 2 3.333 0.889 Rising
Broncos 2 3 4 2 5 3 5 2 4 3.333 -1.000 Falling
Panthers 3 10 2 3 7 2 3 3 3 4.000 0.778 Rising
49ers 6 6 6 5 9 5 8 5 5 6.111 -0.222 Falling
Patriots 5 9 7 7 2 6 7 7 6 6.222 0.889 Rising
Bengals 7 5 12 10 1 8 6 12 9 7.778 2.333 Rising
Chiefs 9 21 11 6 8 7 4 6 7 8.778 -3.334 Falling
Cardinals 11 8 5 9 11 9 10 8 8 8.778 4.222 Rising
Eagles 10 4 13 13 12 13 9 11 15 11.111 1.000 Rising
Colts 17 18 10 11 3 12 15 10 10 11.778 1.444 Rising
Cowboys 12 22 8 8 10 10 17 9 11 11.889 0.444 Rising
Rams 14 30 9 14 15 11 19 13 12 15.222 4.889 Rising
Lions 18 11 20 16 14 18 14 17 13 15.667 -6.334 Falling
Chargers 19 13 14 12 22 14 18 14 19 16.111 2.000 Rising
Bears 8 17 21 20 16 20 13 16 14 16.111 -3.778 Falling
Packers 13 7 25 19 23 16 11 19 16 16.556 -5.556 Falling
Titans 22 23 19 18 13 19 12 18 20 18.222 0.778 Rising
Dolphins 21 16 17 17 21 15 22 20 17 18.444 1.667 Rising
Steelers 15 15 16 21 18 23 20 22 21 19.000 6.111 Rising
Ravens 23 28 22 15 27 17 16 21 18 20.778 -2.445 Falling
Giants 26 12 18 22 20 25 28 15 23 21.000 1.111 Rising
Buccaneers 16 29 15 24 19 21 21 23 24 21.333 6.223 Rising
Bills 20 19 23 23 29 22 23 25 22 22.889 2.222 Rising
Jets 25 26 24 30 17 31 29 26 25 25.889 -2.333 Falling
Browns 28 14 31 27 28 26 26 29 26 26.111 -4.667 Falling
Falcons 24 24 26 25 25 24 31 30 27 26.222 0.556 Rising
Redskins 29 27 28 29 26 27 24 27 28 27.222 -3.889 Falling
Raiders 31 31 29 26 24 29 27 24 29 27.778 0.666 Rising
Vikings 27 25 30 28 30 28 30 28 30 28.444 -1.444 Falling
Texans 30 20 32 31 32 30 25 31 31 29.111 -4.333 Falling
Jaguars 32 32 27 32 31 32 32 32 32 31.333 0.667 Rising

Observations:

  • Much like the Subjective list, the Objective list is in agreement that the Seahawks are the best.
  • Yes, the Panthers are that good.
  • The Chiefs slip to about a ranking around 8th, which is close to where they've been most the season. They're a good team, yes. But not the best team in the NFL.
  • Chargers are right around the middle again. If only the defense wasn't historically bad.
  • Despite their recent 2-1 record, Jaguars still holding things down in the bottom.

Objective Standard Deviation

Objective
Football Outsiders Team Efficiency Team Rankings Sagarin BeatGraphs Pro Football Reference Cold Hard Football Facts Massey ARGH Standard Deviation Change since last period
Seahawks 1 2 1 1 4 1 1 1 1 0.956 -0.038 Falling
Broncos 2 3 4 2 5 3 5 2 4 1.155 -0.336 Falling
49ers 6 6 6 5 9 5 8 5 5 1.370 0.495 Rising
Saints 4 1 3 4 6 4 2 4 2 1.414 0.281 Rising
Redskins 29 27 28 29 26 27 24 27 28 1.474 -2.085 Falling
Jaguars 32 32 27 32 31 32 32 32 32 1.564 1.564 Rising
Vikings 27 25 30 28 30 28 30 28 30 1.641 -1.303 Falling
Cardinals 11 8 5 9 11 9 10 8 8 1.750 -1.583 Falling
Patriots 5 9 7 7 2 6 7 7 6 1.812 -0.612 Falling
Dolphins 21 16 17 17 21 15 22 20 17 2.409 -0.906 Falling
Falcons 24 24 26 25 25 24 31 30 27 2.485 -0.335 Falling
Raiders 31 31 29 26 24 29 27 24 29 2.529 -0.304 Falling
Panthers 3 10 2 3 7 2 3 3 3 2.539 -0.820 Falling
Lions 18 11 20 16 14 18 14 17 13 2.708 0.653 Rising
Bills 20 19 23 23 29 22 23 25 22 2.726 -0.235 Falling
Steelers 15 15 16 21 18 23 20 22 21 2.906 -0.017 Falling
Eagles 10 4 13 13 12 13 9 11 15 3.035 -0.443 Falling
Chargers 19 13 14 12 22 14 18 14 19 3.247 1.278 Rising
Bengals 7 5 12 10 1 8 6 12 9 3.326 -0.769 Falling
Titans 22 23 19 18 13 19 12 18 20 3.457 -0.402 Falling
Texans 30 20 32 31 32 30 25 31 31 3.784 0.201 Rising
Bears 8 17 21 20 16 20 13 16 14 3.871 0.965 Rising
Jets 25 26 24 30 17 31 29 26 25 3.900 0.185 Rising
Buccaneers 16 29 15 24 19 21 21 23 24 4.083 0.025 Rising
Colts 17 18 10 11 3 12 15 10 10 4.263 -1.677 Falling
Cowboys 12 22 8 8 10 10 17 9 11 4.408 0.353 Rising
Ravens 23 28 22 15 27 17 16 21 18 4.417 -0.594 Falling
Browns 28 14 31 27 28 26 26 29 26 4.557 1.764 Rising
Chiefs 9 21 11 6 8 7 4 6 7 4.709 0.516 Rising
Giants 26 12 18 22 20 25 28 15 23 4.967 -1.573 Falling
Packers 13 7 25 19 23 16 11 19 16 5.377 2.588 Rising
Rams 14 30 9 14 15 11 19 13 12 5.846 1.438 Rising

Overall Average

Subj vs Obj
Subjective Average Objective Average Average Change since last period
Seahawks 1.000 1.444 1.222 0.813 Rising
Saints 2.250 3.333 2.792 1.501 Rising
Broncos 3.417 3.333 3.375 -1.208 Falling
Panthers 4.167 4.000 4.083 1.488 Rising
Patriots 4.167 6.222 5.194 0.725 Rising
49ers 7.500 6.111 6.806 0.002 Rising
Bengals 7.250 7.778 7.514 2.678 Rising
Chiefs 6.333 8.778 7.556 -3.834 Falling
Cardinals 9.333 8.778 9.056 4.989 Rising
Colts 10.750 11.778 11.264 -0.744 Falling
Eagles 11.500 11.111 11.306 2.431 Rising
Cowboys 11.833 11.889 11.861 1.669 Rising
Lions 12.417 15.667 14.042 -5.421 Falling
Bears 15.083 16.111 15.597 -3.430 Falling
Chargers 15.833 16.111 15.972 1.265 Rising
Packers 16.667 16.556 16.611 -4.702 Falling
Rams 18.083 15.222 16.653 4.175 Rising
Steelers 17.833 19.000 18.417 6.411 Rising
Titans 19.417 18.222 18.819 1.045 Rising
Ravens 17.000 20.778 18.889 -1.177 Falling
Dolphins 19.917 18.444 19.181 1.329 Rising
Giants 22.417 21.000 21.708 0.438 Rising
Buccaneers 25.250 21.333 23.292 5.940 Rising
Bills 24.333 22.889 23.611 2.490 Rising
Jets 22.833 25.889 24.361 -5.583 Falling
Browns 25.167 26.111 25.639 -5.099 Falling
Raiders 26.583 27.778 27.181 0.587 Rising
Redskins 28.417 27.222 27.819 -4.289 Falling
Falcons 30.333 26.222 28.278 -0.389 Falling
Vikings 28.417 28.444 28.431 -0.658 Falling
Texans 32.000 29.111 30.556 -4.485 Falling
Jaguars 30.500 31.333 30.917 1.038 Rising

Observations:

  • There's Seattle, then there's everyone else.
  • NFC once again is asserting their dominance. 10 of the top 16 teams are in the NFC.
  • Pittsburgh has quietly been putting things together and playing well again.

Overall Standard Deviation

Subj vs Obj
Subjective Average Objective Average Standard Deviation Change since last period
Seahawks 1.000 1.444 0.663 -0.142 Falling
Saints 2.250 3.333 1.119 0.019 Rising
Broncos 3.417 3.333 1.133 -0.143 Falling
Jaguars 30.500 31.333 1.207 0.989 Rising
Redskins 28.417 27.222 1.231 -1.308 Falling
Vikings 28.417 28.444 1.256 -1.240 Falling
49ers 7.500 6.111 1.269 0.008 Rising
Cardinals 9.333 8.778 1.377 -1.543 Falling
Patriots 4.167 6.222 1.676 -0.388 Falling
Panthers 4.167 4.000 1.743 -0.792 Falling
Raiders 26.583 27.778 1.823 -0.567 Falling
Bills 24.333 22.889 2.050 -0.265 Falling
Bengals 7.250 7.778 2.281 -0.558 Falling
Eagles 11.500 11.111 2.296 -0.927 Falling
Chargers 15.833 16.111 2.420 0.112 Rising
Dolphins 19.917 18.444 2.548 -0.477 Falling
Titans 19.417 18.222 2.562 -0.396 Falling
Steelers 17.833 19.000 2.607 0.358 Rising
Falcons 30.333 26.222 2.647 0.302 Rising
Bears 15.083 16.111 2.839 0.488 Rising
Lions 12.417 15.667 2.856 1.110 Rising
Texans 32.000 29.111 2.860 -0.451 Falling
Colts 10.750 11.778 2.938 -1.950 Falling
Cowboys 11.833 11.889 3.044 -0.337 Falling
Jets 22.833 25.889 3.270 -2.335 Falling
Chiefs 6.333 8.778 3.331 -0.052 Falling
Giants 22.417 21.000 3.347 -1.389 Falling
Browns 25.167 26.111 3.360 0.541 Rising
Buccaneers 25.250 21.333 3.526 0.310 Rising
Ravens 17.000 20.778 3.773 -0.205 Falling
Packers 16.667 16.556 4.100 1.712 Rising
Rams 18.083 15.222 4.475 1.012 Rising

Observations:

  • Pretty good consensus about the top 3 teams.
  • Fairly good consensus about the Chargers being in the middle.
  • Who really knows about the Packers? You want to count them out but they come back and tie with Matt Flynn.
  • Could this finally be the year St. Louis puts together a winning season. Who knows?

Difference in Averages

Subj vs Obj
Subjective Average Objective Average Standard Deviation Change since last period
Ravens 17.000 20.778 3.778 2.536 Rising
Lions 12.417 15.667 3.250 1.826 Rising
Jets 22.833 25.889 3.056 -6.500 Rising
Chiefs 6.333 8.778 2.445 -0.999 Rising
Patriots 4.167 6.222 2.056 -0.328 Rising
Raiders 26.583 27.778 1.195 -0.159 Rising
Steelers 17.833 19.000 1.167 0.601 Rising
Saints 2.250 3.333 1.083 1.224 Rising
Bears 15.083 16.111 1.028 0.695 Rising
Colts 10.750 11.778 1.028 -4.376 Rising
Browns 25.167 26.111 0.944 -0.864 Rising
Jaguars 30.500 31.333 0.833 0.742 Rising
Bengals 7.250 7.778 0.528 0.690 Rising
Seahawks 1.000 1.444 0.444 0.737 Rising
Chargers 15.833 16.111 0.278 -1.470 Rising
Cowboys 11.833 11.889 0.056 2.450 Rising
Vikings 28.417 28.444 0.028 1.574 Rising
Broncos 3.417 3.333 -0.083 -0.416 Rising
Packers 16.667 16.556 -0.111 1.707 Rising
Panthers 4.167 4.000 -0.167 1.419 Rising
Eagles 11.500 11.111 -0.389 2.864 Rising
Cardinals 9.333 8.778 -0.556 1.535 Rising
Redskins 28.417 27.222 -1.195 -0.801 Rising
Titans 19.417 18.222 -1.195 0.532 Rising
49ers 7.500 6.111 -1.389 0.449 Rising
Giants 22.417 21.000 -1.417 -1.346 Rising
Bills 24.333 22.889 -1.444 0.536 Rising
Dolphins 19.917 18.444 -1.472 -0.674 Rising
Rams 18.083 15.222 -2.861 -1.427 Rising
Texans 32.000 29.111 -2.889 -0.303 Rising
Buccaneers 25.250 21.333 -3.917 -0.563 Rising
Falcons 30.333 26.222 -4.111 -1.889 Rising

Observations:

  • Pundits desperately want to believe the defending Super Bowl champions are better than they are.
  • The Jets aren't nearly as over-ranked as they once were. They've fallen to the level they've been playing.
  • Atlanta has looked back of late, yes, but not as bad as you'd think it seems.
  • As much fun as it is to point and laugh at the circus in Tampa, they've been playing decent football.

Sources

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