SB Nation

John Crean | November 14, 2013

2013 NFL Power Rankings Consensus, Week 11

NFC Dominates Yet Again

After letting the AFC feel better about themselves for a while, the NFC is beginning to show their dominance again.

The Chargers faced their biggest test yet this past Sunday and they ... didn't completely embarrass themselves. I'm not sure whether to take solace in, or be infuriated by, the fact that they had a chance to win the game and just squandered opportunities. Much has been written on here about what some of our writers think of Mike McCoy's in-game decisions, so I won't rehash anything.

When it comes to the rankings this week, the Chargers fell a little bit. They didn't fall too much because (a) they weren't expected to win anyway (Vegas had given the Chargers 7 points) and (b) the Chargers actually looked competent in the second half.

Division Averages

Division Week 11 Average Week 10 Average Difference
NFC West 11.0000 12.4625 1.4625
AFC West 12.6375 12.1125 -0.525
NFC North 15.1375 15.3375 0.2
NFC South 16.8375 17.7250 0.8875
AFC East 17.7125 16.2000 -1.5125
AFC North 18.2750 18.9750 0.7
NFC East 18.3125 19.6750 1.3625
AFC South 22.0875 19.5125 -2.575

The NFC West has surged this week to take the division crown away from the AFC West, mostly thanks to the Rams' surge (and the Raiders and Chargers dragging the AFC West down).

Stock Rising

Team Week 10 Average Week 11 Average Difference
PHI 18.869 13.737 5.132
STL 25.823 20.828 4.995
NYG 25.737 22.146 3.591
PIT 28.000 24.828 3.172
CAR 8.732 5.571 3.161

Stock Falling

Team Week 10 Average Week 11 Average Difference
IND 5.081 10.520 -5.439
MIA 16.667 20.510 -3.843
TEN 16.091 19.864 -3.773
BUF 22.889 26.101 -3.212
GB 9.551 11.909 -2.358

Subjective Average

Subjective
ESPN Fox CBS USA Today Sports Illustrated ProFootballTalk NFL.com SB Nation Reddit Associated Press ProFootballFocus Average Change since last period
Broncos 2 1 3 2 4 3 1 1 1 3 1 2.000 0.000 No Change
Chiefs 1 2 1 3 1 1 2 3 3 1 4 2.000 0.182 Rising
Seahawks 3 3 2 1 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 2.182 0.454 Rising
Saints 4 7 5 4 3 4 5 4 4 5 3 4.364 2.545 Rising
Patriots 5 4 4 5 5 5 4 6 5 4 5 4.727 1.273 Rising
Panthers 6 5 7 6 6 9 6 5 8 6 6 6.364 3.545 Rising
49ers 8 6 8 8 8 7 8 9 7 9 7 7.727 -3.181 Falling
Colts 7 9 9 9 9 6 7 7 6 8 9 7.818 -3.545 Falling
Lions 9 8 6 7 7 8 10 8 9 7 8 7.909 1.546 Rising
Bengals 10 13 10 10 10 10 9 11 10 10 10 10.273 -1.546 Falling
Bears 11 10 12 12 12 16 11 15 11 11 11 12.000 -0.273 Falling
Packers 13 11 13 11 14 12 13 17 12 13 12 12.818 -2.272 Falling
Jets 12 12 14 17 13 11 15 18 14 12 16 14.000 1.273 Rising
Cowboys 15 15 11 14 15 14 16 20 13 16 13 14.727 -1.909 Falling
Cardinals 16 19 15 13 16 13 12 13 16 15 18 15.091 2.727 Rising
Eagles 14 14 16 15 11 15 17 19 17 14 17 15.364 4.818 Rising
Chargers 17 16 18 18 20 18 14 12 15 18 14 16.364 -1.000 Falling
Ravens 18 18 20 16 17 21 18 10 18 17 15 17.091 2.636 Rising
Browns 19 24 19 19 24 20 19 14 19 19 20 19.636 -0.545 Falling
Titans 21 23 17 22 21 19 20 22 21 21 21 20.727 -4.545 Falling
Dolphins 22 21 23 21 26 17 22 16 20 23 19 20.909 -3.909 Falling
Rams 20 20 24 20 19 23 21 21 22 20 27 21.546 4.545 Rising
Giants 25 17 25 23 18 22 23 23 23 22 23 22.182 3.182 Rising
Redskins 23 22 22 25 23 24 24 24 26 24 24 23.727 -1.727 Falling
Steelers 24 26 26 24 22 25 26 26 24 25 22 24.546 3.454 Rising
Bills 26 27 28 28 27 27 27 28 25 27 28 27.091 -3.091 Falling
Raiders 27 30 29 26 25 26 25 27 27 26 30 27.091 -1.909 Falling
Texans 28 28 21 30 29 29 29 25 28 29 25 27.364 -2.364 Falling
Vikings 30 25 27 27 28 31 28 31 30 28 29 28.546 1.545 Rising
Falcons 29 29 30 29 30 28 30 29 29 30 26 29.000 -1.909 Falling
Buccaneers 31 32 31 31 31 30 31 30 31 31 31 30.909 -0.091 Falling
Jaguars 32 31 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 31.909 0.091 Rising

Observations:

  • Broncos and Chiefs in a dead heat.
  • Sharp delineation from Lions to Bengals.
  • Heh, look at that: in order, we have Lions and tigers and Bears (oh my).
  • SB Nation seems to be just a little off-kilter from everyone else.
  • Tampa Bay and Jacksonville starting to duke it out. They both win their first game in a week and now everyone is questioning their beliefs. Am I exaggerating a little since only 1 site put the Jags in 31st instead of 32nd? Probably.

Subjective Standard Deviation

Subjective
ESPN Fox CBS USA Today Sports Illustrated ProFootballTalk NFL.com SB Nation Reddit Associated Press ProFootballFocus Standard Deviation Change since last period
Jaguars 32 31 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 0.288 0.288 Rising
Buccaneers 31 32 31 31 31 30 31 30 31 31 31 0.514 0.128 Rising
Seahawks 3 3 2 1 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 0.575 -0.575 Falling
Patriots 5 4 4 5 5 5 4 6 5 4 5 0.617 -0.337 Falling
49ers 8 6 8 8 8 7 8 9 7 9 7 0.862 -0.295 Falling
Bills 26 27 28 28 27 27 27 28 25 27 28 0.900 -0.514 Falling
Bengals 10 13 10 10 10 10 9 11 10 10 10 0.962 -0.090 Falling
Broncos 2 1 3 2 4 3 1 1 1 3 1 1.045 -0.083 Falling
Chiefs 1 2 1 3 1 1 2 3 3 1 4 1.045 -0.068 Falling
Saints 4 7 5 4 3 4 5 4 4 5 3 1.068 0.072 Rising
Lions 9 8 6 7 7 8 10 8 9 7 8 1.083 0.301 Rising
Falcons 29 29 30 29 30 28 30 29 29 30 26 1.128 -0.493 Falling
Redskins 23 22 22 25 23 24 24 24 26 24 24 1.136 -0.771 Falling
Panthers 6 5 7 6 6 9 6 5 8 6 6 1.150 -0.631 Falling
Colts 7 9 9 9 9 6 7 7 6 8 9 1.192 -0.409 Falling
Steelers 24 26 26 24 22 25 26 26 24 25 22 1.437 -0.321 Falling
Titans 21 23 17 22 21 19 20 22 21 21 21 1.543 0.351 Rising
Packers 13 11 13 11 14 12 13 17 12 13 12 1.585 -0.386 Falling
Raiders 27 30 29 26 25 26 25 27 27 26 30 1.730 0.145 Rising
Bears 11 10 12 12 12 16 11 15 11 11 11 1.758 -0.056 Falling
Vikings 30 25 27 27 28 31 28 31 30 28 29 1.777 1.263 Rising
Eagles 14 14 16 15 11 15 17 19 17 14 17 2.057 1.028 Rising
Cardinals 16 19 15 13 16 13 12 13 16 15 18 2.109 0.211 Rising
Jets 12 12 14 17 13 11 15 18 14 12 16 2.174 0.311 Rising
Cowboys 15 15 11 14 15 14 16 20 13 16 13 2.178 0.775 Rising
Rams 20 20 24 20 19 23 21 21 22 20 27 2.231 0.501 Rising
Chargers 17 16 18 18 20 18 14 12 15 18 14 2.267 0.713 Rising
Giants 25 17 25 23 18 22 23 23 23 22 23 2.405 -0.091 Falling
Texans 28 28 21 30 29 29 29 25 28 29 25 2.532 -0.198 Falling
Browns 19 24 19 19 24 20 19 14 19 19 20 2.568 0.417 Rising
Dolphins 22 21 23 21 26 17 22 16 20 23 19 2.712 -0.242 Falling
Ravens 18 18 20 16 17 21 18 10 18 17 15 2.745 0.292 Rising

Observations:

  • For there being a fight going on at the bottom of the rankings, they sure are pretty consistent in their rankings.
  • 6 of the 9 least consistently-ranked teams are AFC.
  • 11 teams with a Standard Deviation above 2.0. A lot of uncertainty this week. Kind of refreshing seeing that this late in the season.

Objective Average

Objective
Football Outsiders Team Efficiency Team Rankings Sagarin BeatGraphs Aikman Efficiency Pro Football Reference Cold Hard Football Facts Massey Average Change since last period
Seahawks 2 1 2 2 1 4 3 1 1 1.889 1.000 Rising
Broncos 1 3 3 1 2 2 1 6 2 2.333 0.667 Rising
Saints 4 2 5 3 5 5 4 4 6 4.222 1.778 Rising
Panthers 3 8 4 7 12 1 2 2 4 4.778 2.778 Rising
Chiefs 8 16 1 5 4 3 6 3 3 5.444 -0.888 Falling
49ers 6 6 6 6 6 8 5 5 5 5.889 -1.111 Falling
Patriots 7 12 8 4 3 7 8 7 8 7.111 0.667 Rising
Lions 10 9 7 11 11 6 12 11 7 9.333 1.889 Rising
Bengals 9 4 13 8 19 9 7 9 13 10.111 -2.222 Falling
Packers 13 7 17 9 10 13 9 10 11 11.000 -2.444 Falling
Eagles 15 5 10 15 8 12 15 15 14 12.111 5.445 Rising
Bears 5 13 14 12 15 11 14 12 15 12.333 0.111 Rising
Cowboys 11 15 11 10 7 22 11 14 10 12.333 -0.444 Falling
Cardinals 12 10 9 17 9 17 13 18 12 13.000 2.111 Rising
Colts 14 14 12 13 29 10 10 8 9 13.222 -7.333 Falling
Chargers 17 17 19 16 23 19 18 17 17 18.111 -1.000 Falling
Ravens 23 29 22 14 13 14 16 16 18 18.333 1.111 Rising
Titans 27 21 21 19 16 15 19 13 20 19.000 -3.000 Falling
Dolphins 18 25 25 18 14 20 20 19 22 20.111 -3.778 Falling
Rams 16 27 16 20 27 18 17 24 16 20.111 5.445 Rising
Browns 26 19 20 22 17 26 21 21 21 21.444 -0.444 Falling
Giants 28 11 15 21 18 28 28 31 19 22.111 4.000 Rising
Redskins 30 24 23 24 21 16 26 22 24 23.333 -2.222 Falling
Jets 19 20 18 27 25 25 30 25 23 23.556 -1.556 Falling
Texans 29 18 29 25 28 24 25 20 25 24.778 0.555 Rising
Bills 25 23 26 29 30 21 22 23 27 25.111 -3.333 Falling
Steelers 21 22 24 23 24 29 27 30 26 25.111 2.889 Rising
Falcons 22 26 30 26 26 31 24 26 30 26.778 -1.556 Falling
Vikings 24 28 28 28 20 30 29 27 29 27.000 1.556 Rising
Buccaneers 20 30 31 30 31 23 23 29 31 27.556 -0.112 Falling
Raiders 31 31 27 31 22 27 31 28 28 28.444 -0.111 Falling
Jaguars 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32.000 -0.444 Falling

Observations:

  • Seahawks made up a lot of the ground they lost last week.
  • Chargers dropped 1.000 in both lists this week.
  • Beatgraphs has a few oddities, but they're actually pretty well in line with most the others.
  • Jaguars are finally the consensus bottom team in the Objective list.

Objective Standard Deviation

Objective
Football Outsiders Team Efficiency Team Rankings Sagarin BeatGraphs Aikman Efficiency Pro Football Reference Cold Hard Football Facts Massey Standard Deviation Change since last period
Jaguars 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 0.000 -1.257 Falling
49ers 6 6 6 6 6 8 5 5 5 0.875 -0.258 Falling
Seahawks 2 1 2 2 1 4 3 1 1 0.994 -0.376 Falling
Saints 4 2 5 3 5 5 4 4 6 1.133 -0.922 Falling
Broncos 1 3 3 1 2 2 1 6 2 1.491 -1.176 Falling
Chargers 17 17 19 16 23 19 18 17 17 1.969 0.683 Rising
Lions 10 9 7 11 11 6 12 11 7 2.055 0.437 Rising
Patriots 7 12 8 4 3 7 8 7 8 2.424 -0.275 Falling
Packers 13 7 17 9 10 13 9 10 11 2.789 0.380 Rising
Browns 26 19 20 22 17 26 21 21 21 2.793 0.849 Rising
Falcons 22 26 30 26 26 31 24 26 30 2.820 -1.061 Falling
Raiders 31 31 27 31 22 27 31 28 28 2.833 0.622 Rising
Bears 5 13 14 12 15 11 14 12 15 2.906 -1.740 Falling
Steelers 21 22 24 23 24 29 27 30 26 2.923 0.815 Rising
Vikings 24 28 28 28 20 30 29 27 29 2.944 1.445 Rising
Bills 25 23 26 29 30 21 22 23 27 2.961 0.181 Rising
Dolphins 18 25 25 18 14 20 20 19 22 3.315 -1.469 Falling
Cardinals 12 10 9 17 9 17 13 18 12 3.333 1.254 Rising
Panthers 3 8 4 7 12 1 2 2 4 3.359 -2.569 Falling
Eagles 15 5 10 15 8 12 15 15 14 3.478 1.212 Rising
Redskins 30 24 23 24 21 16 26 22 24 3.559 0.381 Rising
Texans 29 18 29 25 28 24 25 20 25 3.583 0.151 Rising
Jets 19 20 18 27 25 25 30 25 23 3.715 -0.880 Falling
Titans 27 21 21 19 16 15 19 13 20 3.859 -0.331 Falling
Cowboys 11 15 11 10 7 22 11 14 10 4.055 2.143 Rising
Buccaneers 20 30 31 30 31 23 23 29 31 4.058 0.754 Rising
Bengals 9 4 13 8 19 9 7 9 13 4.095 1.369 Rising
Chiefs 8 16 1 5 4 3 6 3 3 4.193 1.400 Rising
Rams 16 27 16 20 27 18 17 24 16 4.408 2.767 Rising
Ravens 23 29 22 14 13 14 16 16 18 5.011 -0.069 Falling
Colts 14 14 12 13 29 10 10 8 9 5.940 4.491 Rising
Giants 28 11 15 21 18 28 28 31 19 6.540 2.998 Rising

Observations:

  • Colts are the least consistent thanks to Beatgraphs. Otherwise they're very much a consistent 10-12.
  • AFC/NFC evenly distributed across the list.
  • Wow, Giants' Standard Deviation is over 6.
  • Chargers still one of the more consistent teams, despite their apparent reputation of being inconsistent.

Overall Average

Subj vs Obj
Subjective Average Objective Average Average Change since last period
Seahawks 2.182 1.889 2.035 0.728 Rising
Broncos 2.000 2.333 2.167 0.333 Rising
Chiefs 2.000 5.444 3.722 -0.353 Falling
Saints 4.364 4.222 4.293 2.162 Rising
Panthers 6.364 4.778 5.571 3.161 Rising
Patriots 4.727 7.111 5.919 0.970 Rising
49ers 7.727 5.889 6.808 -2.146 Falling
Lions 7.909 9.333 8.621 1.717 Rising
Bengals 10.273 10.111 10.192 -1.884 Falling
Colts 7.818 13.222 10.520 -5.439 Falling
Packers 12.818 11.000 11.909 -2.358 Falling
Bears 12.000 12.333 12.167 -0.081 Falling
Cowboys 14.727 12.333 13.530 -1.176 Falling
Eagles 15.364 12.111 13.737 5.132 Rising
Cardinals 15.091 13.000 14.045 2.420 Rising
Chargers 16.364 18.111 17.237 -1.000 Falling
Ravens 17.091 18.333 17.712 1.874 Rising
Jets 14.000 23.556 18.778 -0.142 Falling
Titans 20.727 19.000 19.864 -3.773 Falling
Dolphins 20.909 20.111 20.510 -3.843 Falling
Browns 19.636 21.444 20.540 -0.495 Falling
Rams 21.546 20.111 20.828 4.995 Rising
Giants 22.182 22.111 22.146 3.591 Rising
Redskins 23.727 23.333 23.530 -1.974 Falling
Steelers 24.546 25.111 24.828 3.172 Rising
Texans 27.364 24.778 26.071 -0.904 Falling
Bills 27.091 25.111 26.101 -3.212 Falling
Raiders 27.091 28.444 27.768 -1.010 Falling
Vikings 28.546 27.000 27.773 1.550 Rising
Falcons 29.000 26.778 27.889 -1.732 Falling
Buccaneers 30.909 27.556 29.232 -0.101 Falling
Jaguars 31.909 32.000 31.955 -0.177 Falling

Observations:

  • Seahawks and Broncos very close overall.
  • Chargers are the best of bottom half teams.
  • 10 of the top 16 are NFC, compared the AFC's 6 representatives. That AFC dominance was short-lived.

Overall Standard Deviation

Subj vs Obj
Subjective Average Objective Average Standard Deviation Change since last period
Jaguars 31.909 32.000 0.218 -0.654 Falling
Seahawks 2.182 1.889 0.805 -0.455 Falling
Saints 4.364 4.222 1.100 -0.528 Falling
49ers 7.727 5.889 1.261 0.109 Rising
Broncos 2.000 2.333 1.276 -0.761 Falling
Lions 7.909 9.333 1.746 0.234 Rising
Patriots 4.727 7.111 2.064 -0.071 Falling
Steelers 24.546 25.111 2.249 0.325 Rising
Chargers 16.364 18.111 2.308 0.626 Rising
Bills 27.091 25.111 2.315 -0.093 Falling
Falcons 29.000 26.778 2.345 -0.670 Falling
Bears 12.000 12.333 2.351 -1.062 Falling
Packers 12.818 11.000 2.388 -0.005 Falling
Raiders 27.091 28.444 2.390 -0.068 Falling
Vikings 28.546 27.000 2.496 1.177 Rising
Panthers 6.364 4.778 2.535 -1.816 Falling
Redskins 23.727 23.333 2.539 -0.057 Falling
Browns 19.636 21.444 2.819 0.550 Rising
Bengals 10.273 10.111 2.839 0.807 Rising
Cardinals 15.091 13.000 2.920 0.524 Rising
Titans 20.727 19.000 2.958 0.010 Rising
Dolphins 20.909 20.111 3.025 -0.875 Falling
Buccaneers 30.909 27.556 3.216 0.421 Rising
Eagles 15.364 12.111 3.223 1.078 Rising
Texans 27.364 24.778 3.311 0.241 Rising
Cowboys 14.727 12.333 3.381 1.666 Rising
Chiefs 2.000 5.444 3.383 1.019 Rising
Rams 21.546 20.111 3.463 1.752 Rising
Ravens 17.091 18.333 3.978 0.113 Rising
Giants 22.182 22.111 4.736 1.701 Rising
Colts 7.818 13.222 4.888 3.156 Rising
Jets 14.000 23.556 5.605 0.850 Rising

Difference in Averages

Subj vs Obj
Subjective Average Objective Average Standard Deviation Change since last period
Jets 14.000 23.556 9.556 2.829 Rising
Colts 7.818 13.222 5.404 3.788 Rising
Chiefs 2.000 5.444 3.444 1.070 Rising
Patriots 4.727 7.111 2.384 0.606 Rising
Browns 19.636 21.444 1.808 -0.101 Rising
Chargers 16.364 18.111 1.748 0.000 No Change
Lions 7.909 9.333 1.424 -0.344 Rising
Raiders 27.091 28.444 1.354 -1.798 Rising
Ravens 17.091 18.333 1.242 1.525 Rising
Steelers 24.546 25.111 0.566 0.566 Rising
Bears 12.000 12.333 0.333 -0.384 Rising
Broncos 2.000 2.333 0.333 -0.667 Rising
Jaguars 31.909 32.000 0.091 0.535 Rising
Giants 22.182 22.111 -0.071 -0.819 Rising
Saints 4.364 4.222 -0.141 0.768 Rising
Bengals 10.273 10.111 -0.162 0.676 Rising
Seahawks 2.182 1.889 -0.293 -0.546 Rising
Redskins 23.727 23.333 -0.394 0.495 Rising
Dolphins 20.909 20.111 -0.798 -0.131 Rising
Rams 21.546 20.111 -1.434 -0.899 Rising
Vikings 28.546 27.000 -1.546 -0.011 Rising
Panthers 6.364 4.778 -1.586 0.768 Rising
Titans 20.727 19.000 -1.727 -1.545 Rising
Packers 12.818 11.000 -1.818 0.172 Rising
49ers 7.727 5.889 -1.838 -2.070 Rising
Bills 27.091 25.111 -1.980 0.242 Rising
Cardinals 15.091 13.000 -2.091 0.616 Rising
Falcons 29.000 26.778 -2.222 -0.353 Rising
Cowboys 14.727 12.333 -2.394 -1.465 Rising
Texans 27.364 24.778 -2.586 -2.919 Rising
Eagles 15.364 12.111 -3.253 -0.627 Rising
Buccaneers 30.909 27.556 -3.354 0.020 Rising

Observations:

  • The Jets became even more over-ranked this week. Their Objective ranking dropped more than their subjective ranking.
  • Colts are seemingly over-ranked right now. We'll see in the next couple weeks if they get better or worse.
  • Since the Chargers moved the same amount in both lists, their difference remains the same.
  • Would you believe the Panthers are still under-ranked. In the Objective lists, they're a top-5 team.
  • AFC teams in general are over-ranked, NFC teams in general are under-ranked.

Sources

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