2013 NFL Power Rankings Consensus, Week 5: Chargers Gaining Respect

Jeff Gross

A quarter of the way through the season, we're starting to get a clearer picture on just where teams stack up in the league.

A quarter of the season is already done. It feels like the season just started, no way we're already 25% done! Okay, hissy fit over. We've had a few surprises — both good and bad — as well as teams being just what we expected of them.

What do we know about the San Diego Chargers so far? They can beat the 50% of the teams in the NFC East. This week brings the first matchup within the division. If the rankings are any indication, the Chargers shouldn't have much trouble dispatching the Oakland Raiders. But, that's why we play games on the field and not on computers.

Division Averages

Division Avg Ranking
AFC West 12.9875
AFC East 13.6000
NFC North 15.0375
AFC South 15.6250
NFC West 15.7750
NFC South 16.2250
AFC North 19.1500
NFC East 23.6000

The AFC West is now the highest-ranked division in the NFL, with the NFC East now the weakest. I bet nobody saw that coming. The difference between the NFC East (8th) and the AFC North (7th) is wider than the gap separating 1st and 5th.

Stock Rising

Team Week 4 Average Week 5 Average Difference
TEN 18.278 11.146 7.132
CLE 23.778 18.354 5.424
SDG 20.375 15.083 5.292
DET 16.250 11.188 5.062
KC 10.014 5.896 4.118

Chargers beat a "respectable" team again, get rewarded.

Stock Falling

Team Week 4 Average Week 5 Average Difference
CIN 10.111 16.063 -5.952
NYJ 16.583 21.188 -4.605
CHI 7.944 12.292 -4.348
BAL 9.694 13.979 -4.285
DAL 12.722 16.792 -4.070

Remember how I like to view the "Objective vs Subjective" table as kind of a "Most Overrated" and "Most Underrated" teams list (not a steadfast rule by any means)? It doesn't always work out that way, but this week it does correlate. Cincinnati and Chicago were the two most "over-ranked" teams last week.

Subjective Average

Subjective
ESPN Fox CBS USA Today Sports Illustrated ProFootballTalk NFL.com SportingNews SB Nation Reddit Associated Press ProFootballFocus Average Change since last period
Broncos 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1.083 0.250 Rising
Seahawks 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 1.917 -0.250 Falling
Saints 3 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 3 3 3 3 3.333 0.500 Rising
Patriots 4 3 3 4 4 4 3 3 4 4 4 4 3.667 0.583 Rising
Chiefs 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 8 5 5 6 5.417 2.833 Rising
Colts 6 9 6 9 6 6 6 10 7 6 6 10 7.250 4.167 Rising
Bears 9 7 10 7 10 8 9 8 5 7 9 8 8.083 -3.416 Falling
49ers 8 11 7 6 7 11 10 5 13 8 7 7 8.333 3.917 Rising
Lions 10 6 9 10 8 7 7 9 14 11 8 12 9.250 6.583 Rising
Dolphins 7 10 8 8 12 9 8 14 11 9 10 15 10.083 -2.083 Falling
Packers 12 13 16 11 11 13 12 7 12 10 11 5 11.083 0.167 Rising
Bengals 11 12 12 14 13 15 11 13 6 13 15 9 12.000 -5.333 Falling
Texans 15 8 15 13 14 16 16 11 10 12 12 14 13.000 -1.833 Falling
Ravens 14 15 14 12 16 10 15 12 9 14 16 13 13.333 -4.833 Falling
Titans 13 14 11 16 9 12 13 15 15 15 13 18 13.667 3.000 Rising
Chargers 17 16 17 17 15 17 17 17 17 17 14 16 16.417 2.666 Rising
Cowboys 18 17 13 15 17 21 18 16 18 18 17 11 16.583 -3.916 Falling
Falcons 16 18 18 18 19 22 19 18 16 16 18 17 17.917 -3.250 Falling
Browns 20 19 21 21 18 14 21 19 21 19 19 20 19.333 6.334 Rising
Bills 23 20 22 20 20 18 14 20 23 20 20 22 20.167 3.583 Rising
Panthers 21 23 23 19 25 20 20 21 20 21 21 19 21.083 -0.250 Falling
Cardinals 19 25 19 22 23 19 22 25 24 23 22 24 22.250 0.917 Rising
Jets 22 21 20 27 26 25 24 26 19 24 23 25 23.500 -3.333 Falling
Eagles 27 22 25 24 28 23 23 22 25 22 26 21 24.000 -3.583 Falling
Vikings 24 26 24 26 21 26 26 27 22 27 25 23 24.750 3.250 Rising
Rams 26 24 27 23 22 24 27 24 26 26 27 26 25.167 -4.000 Falling
Redskins 25 27 26 25 24 27 25 23 27 25 24 27 25.417 1.416 Rising
Steelers 29 29 29 28 29 30 29 29 29 30 28 29 29.000 -1.750 Falling
Raiders 28 31 28 31 27 28 30 30 30 28 29 30 29.167 -0.417 Falling
Giants 30 28 30 30 31 29 31 28 28 29 30 28 29.333 -1.916 Falling
Buccaneers 31 30 31 29 30 31 28 31 31 31 31 31 30.417 0.000 No Change
Jaguars 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32.000 0.000 No Change

Observations:

  • SPORTING NEWS, YOU HAD ONE JOB! If it weren't for SN, the Broncos and Seahawks would be a unanimous 1-2.
  • A lot of fans like to keep discounting the Patriots, saying they haven't looked good at all this year. Don't tell that to the rankers.
  • 2 teams from the AFC West make up the top 5.
  • We're back to parity in the top-12: 6 teams from each the NFC and AFC.
  • Interesting how the Chargers with their terrible defense, were able to hold the Cowboys scoreless for 3 quarters, and yet some rankers still have the Cowboys higher. Butthurt homer? Probably.
  • Mike Florio over at Pro Football Talk really wants to believe in the Browns, huh?
  • Same story at NFL.com with the Bills. It wasn't that long ago when pundits were sure the Bills were the 4th-worst team in the league.

Subjective Standard Deviation

Subjective
ESPN Fox CBS USA Today Sports Illustrated ProFootballTalk NFL.com SportingNews SB Nation Reddit Associated Press ProFootballFocus Standard Deviation Change since last period
Jaguars 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 0.000 0.000 No Change
Seahawks 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 0.276 -0.195 Falling
Broncos 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 0.276 -0.195 Falling
Saints 3 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 3 3 3 3 0.471 -0.427 Falling
Patriots 4 3 3 4 4 4 3 3 4 4 4 4 0.471 -0.693 Falling
Steelers 29 29 29 28 29 30 29 29 29 30 28 29 0.577 -1.343 Falling
Chiefs 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 8 5 5 6 0.862 -0.777 Falling
Chargers 17 16 17 17 15 17 17 17 17 17 14 16 0.954 0.092 Rising
Buccaneers 31 30 31 29 30 31 28 31 31 31 31 31 0.954 -0.233 Falling
Giants 30 28 30 30 31 29 31 28 28 29 30 28 1.106 -0.871 Falling
Raiders 28 31 28 31 27 28 30 30 30 28 29 30 1.280 -1.208 Falling
Redskins 25 27 26 25 24 27 25 23 27 25 24 27 1.320 -0.755 Falling
Bears 9 7 10 7 10 8 9 8 5 7 9 8 1.382 0.276 Rising
Falcons 16 18 18 18 19 22 19 18 16 16 18 17 1.605 0.426 Rising
Rams 26 24 27 23 22 24 27 24 26 26 27 26 1.625 0.053 Rising
Colts 6 9 6 9 6 6 6 10 7 6 6 10 1.639 -0.252 Falling
Panthers 21 23 23 19 25 20 20 21 20 21 21 19 1.706 -0.066 Falling
Vikings 24 26 24 26 21 26 26 27 22 27 25 23 1.876 0.243 Rising
Browns 20 19 21 21 18 14 21 19 21 19 19 20 1.886 0.091 Rising
Eagles 27 22 25 24 28 23 23 22 25 22 26 21 2.121 0.021 Rising
Cardinals 19 25 19 22 23 19 22 25 24 23 22 24 2.126 0.175 Rising
Ravens 14 15 14 12 16 10 15 12 9 14 16 13 2.134 -0.045 Falling
Lions 10 6 9 10 8 7 7 9 14 11 8 12 2.203 1.305 Rising
49ers 8 11 7 6 7 11 10 5 13 8 7 7 2.285 -0.135 Falling
Titans 13 14 11 16 9 12 13 15 15 15 13 18 2.285 1.435 Rising
Bills 23 20 22 20 20 18 14 20 23 20 20 22 2.339 0.650 Rising
Texans 15 8 15 13 14 16 16 11 10 12 12 14 2.381 0.518 Rising
Dolphins 7 10 8 8 12 9 8 14 11 9 10 15 2.397 0.237 Rising
Jets 22 21 20 27 26 25 24 26 19 24 23 25 2.432 -0.012 Falling
Bengals 11 12 12 14 13 15 11 13 6 13 15 9 2.450 1.271 Rising
Cowboys 18 17 13 15 17 21 18 16 18 18 17 11 2.499 0.704 Rising
Packers 12 13 16 11 11 13 12 7 12 10 11 5 2.722 -0.110 Falling

Observations:

  • Unanimous that the Jaguars are the worst. No argument here.
  • Pretty good consensus of the top 5 teams in the league right now.
  • Chargers are right in the middle of the rankings, and very consistently so.
  • 6 of the 8 most consistent, and 6 of the 8 least consistent teams are in the AFC. So apparently 1/3 of the AFC is pretty obvious, and another 1/3 is an enigma.

Objective Average

Objective
Football Outsiders Team Efficiency Team Rankings Sagarin BeatGraphs Aikman Efficiency Pro Football Reference Massey Average Change since last period
Seahawks 2 3 1 2 3 4 2 2 2.375 0.403 Rising
Broncos 1 1 4 1 11 1 1 1 2.625 -0.958 Falling
Saints 4 2 2 4 1 6 4 4 3.375 2.292 Rising
Colts 5 6 6 5 8 5 5 7 5.875 3.903 Rising
Patriots 7 15 3 3 6 7 6 3 6.250 -1.028 Falling
Chiefs 3 8 11 8 4 2 7 8 6.375 5.403 Rising
Titans 8 9 9 9 5 9 10 10 8.625 11.264 Rising
Dolphins 19 14 5 13 2 11 8 5 9.625 -2.625 Falling
Panthers 6 12 12 10 20 3 3 14 10.000 0.667 Rising
Texans 17 7 8 15 7 15 11 9 11.125 1.319 Rising
Lions 13 4 18 11 22 10 15 12 13.125 3.542 Rising
Chargers 12 10 17 16 9 17 12 17 13.750 7.917 Rising
Ravens 23 29 7 7 14 22 9 6 14.625 -3.736 Falling
Bills 10 20 10 22 17 13 13 16 15.125 2.986 Rising
Falcons 14 11 14 17 12 27 16 19 16.250 -3.361 Falling
Bears 11 28 20 12 23 8 19 11 16.500 -5.278 Falling
Packers 9 19 23 6 27 18 18 15 16.875 -0.986 Falling
Cowboys 16 21 21 14 13 16 14 21 17.000 -4.222 Falling
Browns 24 16 16 21 15 12 17 18 17.375 4.514 Rising
49ers 18 23 15 18 10 25 20 13 17.750 0.694 Rising
Jets 20 13 13 25 18 19 21 22 18.875 -5.875 Falling
Bengals 15 18 22 19 25 20 22 20 20.125 -6.569 Falling
Eagles 26 5 27 27 21 21 25 26 22.250 0.750 Rising
Cardinals 27 22 19 24 19 26 24 23 23.000 1.889 Rising
Buccaneers 22 26 24 26 26 14 23 27 23.500 -2.722 Falling
Vikings 21 24 25 20 28 24 27 24 24.125 2.208 Rising
Redskins 28 27 29 23 29 23 28 25 26.500 2.167 Rising
Giants 31 17 28 29 24 31 29 29 27.250 -3.917 Falling
Rams 30 32 26 31 16 29 31 30 28.125 -3.347 Falling
Steelers 25 25 30 28 32 30 30 31 28.875 -1.653 Falling
Raiders 29 30 31 30 30 28 26 28 29.000 -4.556 Falling
Jaguars 32 31 32 32 31 32 32 32 31.750 -1.083 Falling

Observations:

  • Now using DVOA for the Football Outsiders rank.
  • Seahawks surpass the Broncos this week for the "Objective" top spot.
  • Most of this is because BeatGraphs ranks the Broncos as 11th, even though Denver is undefeated.
  • Even though Denver is undefeated, their wins have come against weak teams. Football Outsiders lists the Broncos as having the 3rd-easiest schedule so far. This could account for the low BeatGraphs ranking.
  • Team Efficiency really likes the Eagles.
  • Chargers jumped nearly 8 spots this week in the Objective Rankings.
  • Wow, 4-of-9 sites have the Panthers listed 10th or better.

Objective Standard Deviation

Objective
Football Outsiders Team Efficiency Team Rankings Sagarin BeatGraphs Aikman Efficiency Pro Football Reference Massey Standard Deviation Change since last period
Jaguars 32 31 32 32 31 32 32 32 0.433 -1.828 Falling
Seahawks 2 3 1 2 3 4 2 2 0.857 -1.582 Falling
Colts 5 6 6 5 8 5 5 7 1.053 -2.468 Falling
Saints 4 2 2 4 1 6 4 4 1.495 -0.665 Falling
Titans 8 9 9 9 5 9 10 10 1.495 -3.062 Falling
Raiders 29 30 31 30 30 28 26 28 1.500 -3.447 Falling
Redskins 28 27 29 23 29 23 28 25 2.345 -0.955 Falling
Steelers 25 25 30 28 32 30 30 31 2.472 -1.765 Falling
Vikings 21 24 25 20 28 24 27 24 2.522 -0.103 Falling
Cardinals 27 22 19 24 19 26 24 23 2.739 -0.739 Falling
Bengals 15 18 22 19 25 20 22 20 2.804 -3.947 Falling
Chiefs 3 8 11 8 4 2 7 8 2.870 -3.709 Falling
Chargers 12 10 17 16 9 17 12 17 3.152 0.992 Rising
Cowboys 16 21 21 14 13 16 14 21 3.240 -0.152 Falling
Broncos 1 1 4 1 11 1 1 1 3.314 2.647 Rising
Browns 24 16 16 21 15 12 17 18 3.462 -0.233 Falling
Patriots 7 15 3 3 6 7 6 3 3.700 -0.210 Falling
Texans 17 7 8 15 7 15 11 9 3.756 -1.054 Falling
Jets 20 13 13 25 18 19 21 22 3.919 -1.738 Falling
Buccaneers 22 26 24 26 26 14 23 27 3.937 -1.350 Falling
Bills 10 20 10 22 17 13 13 16 4.136 -0.659 Falling
Giants 31 17 28 29 24 31 29 29 4.380 -2.816 Falling
49ers 18 23 15 18 10 25 20 13 4.684 -1.392 Falling
Falcons 14 11 14 17 12 27 16 19 4.737 -0.081 Falling
Rams 30 32 26 31 16 29 31 30 4.885 0.836 Rising
Lions 13 4 18 11 22 10 15 12 5.061 -1.420 Falling
Dolphins 19 14 5 13 2 11 8 5 5.290 1.318 Rising
Panthers 6 12 12 10 20 3 3 14 5.454 -0.835 Falling
Packers 9 19 23 6 27 18 18 15 6.431 -1.133 Falling
Bears 11 28 20 12 23 8 19 11 6.577 -0.828 Falling
Eagles 26 5 27 27 21 21 25 26 6.906 -0.243 Falling
Ravens 23 29 7 7 14 22 9 6 8.321 0.218 Rising

Observations:

  • At least the Jaguars are consistent.
  • The Ravens are all over the board.
  • If you take out the Team Efficiency rating, Philadelphia is actually relatively consistent.
  • Packers and Bears are a statistical mess.

Overall Average

Subj vs Obj
Subjective Average Objective Average Average Change since last period
Broncos 1.083 2.625 1.854 -0.354 Falling
Seahawks 1.917 2.375 2.146 0.076 Rising
Saints 3.333 3.375 3.354 1.396 Rising
Patriots 3.667 6.250 4.958 -0.222 Falling
Chiefs 5.417 6.375 5.896 4.118 Rising
Colts 7.250 5.875 6.563 4.034 Rising
Dolphins 10.083 9.625 9.854 -2.354 Falling
Titans 13.667 8.625 11.146 7.132 Rising
Lions 9.250 13.125 11.188 5.062 Rising
Texans 13.000 11.125 12.063 -0.257 Falling
Bears 8.083 16.500 12.292 -4.348 Falling
49ers 8.333 17.750 13.042 2.305 Rising
Ravens 13.333 14.625 13.979 -4.285 Falling
Packers 11.083 16.875 13.979 -0.410 Falling
Chargers 16.417 13.750 15.083 5.292 Rising
Panthers 21.083 10.000 15.542 0.208 Rising
Bengals 12.000 20.125 16.063 -5.952 Falling
Cowboys 16.583 17.000 16.792 -4.070 Falling
Falcons 17.917 16.250 17.083 -3.305 Falling
Bills 20.167 15.125 17.646 3.285 Rising
Browns 19.333 17.375 18.354 5.424 Rising
Jets 23.500 18.875 21.188 -4.605 Falling
Cardinals 22.250 23.000 22.625 1.403 Rising
Eagles 24.000 22.250 23.125 -1.417 Falling
Vikings 24.750 24.125 24.438 2.729 Rising
Redskins 25.417 26.500 25.958 1.792 Rising
Rams 25.167 28.125 26.646 -3.674 Falling
Buccaneers 30.417 23.500 26.958 -1.361 Falling
Giants 29.333 27.250 28.292 -2.917 Falling
Steelers 29.000 28.875 28.938 -1.702 Falling
Raiders 29.167 29.000 29.083 -2.486 Falling
Jaguars 32.000 31.750 31.875 -0.542 Falling

Observations:

  • The top 6 is pretty well defined.
  • Sharp delineation from Colts to Dolphins, then again Browns to Jets.
  • Almost 3 spots separate the Raiders from the Jaguars.
  • Ravens and Packers have the same overall average.

Overall Standard Deviation

Subj vs Obj
Subjective Average Objective Average Standard Deviation Change since last period
Jaguars 32.000 31.750 0.300 -1.320 Falling
Seahawks 1.917 2.375 0.625 -1.101 Falling
Saints 3.333 3.375 1.014 -0.798 Falling
Raiders 29.167 29.000 1.375 -2.933 Falling
Colts 7.250 5.875 1.584 -1.247 Falling
Steelers 29.000 28.875 1.627 -1.504 Falling
Redskins 25.417 26.500 1.878 -0.942 Falling
Chiefs 5.417 6.375 1.990 -2.820 Falling
Vikings 24.750 24.125 2.179 -0.092 Falling
Broncos 1.083 2.625 2.238 1.651 Rising
Cardinals 22.250 23.000 2.418 -0.426 Falling
Chargers 16.417 13.750 2.496 0.481 Rising
Patriots 3.667 6.250 2.685 -0.064 Falling
Browns 19.333 17.375 2.801 -0.544 Falling
Cowboys 16.583 17.000 2.826 0.223 Rising
Giants 29.333 27.250 3.074 -2.265 Falling
Texans 13.000 11.125 3.144 -0.363 Falling
Titans 13.667 8.625 3.182 -0.261 Falling
Falcons 17.917 16.250 3.345 -0.048 Falling
Rams 25.167 28.125 3.637 0.226 Rising
Dolphins 10.083 9.625 3.833 0.723 Rising
Jets 23.500 18.875 3.851 -1.599 Falling
Bills 20.167 15.125 4.028 -0.362 Falling
Lions 9.250 13.125 4.094 -0.222 Falling
Buccaneers 30.417 23.500 4.269 -1.692 Falling
Eagles 24.000 22.250 4.745 -0.360 Falling
Bengals 12.000 20.125 4.753 -0.899 Falling
Packers 11.083 16.875 5.389 -0.474 Falling
Ravens 13.333 14.625 5.552 -0.127 Falling
49ers 8.333 17.750 5.761 0.417 Rising
Bears 8.083 16.500 5.954 0.061 Rising
Panthers 21.083 10.000 6.567 -0.071 Falling

Observations:

  • Consistency towards the extremes.
  • Funny how the Eagles and Ravens are at the bottom of this list when their Subjective and Objective rankings are so close to each other. Just shows the individual rankings aren't consistent.
  • 7 of the 9 least consistent teams are NFC teams.

Difference in Averages

Subj vs Obj
Subjective Average Objective Average Standard Deviation Change since last period
49ers 8.333 17.750 9.417 3.223 Rising
Bears 8.083 16.500 8.417 1.861 Rising
Bengals 12.000 20.125 8.125 1.236 Rising
Packers 11.083 16.875 5.792 1.153 Rising
Lions 9.250 13.125 3.875 3.042 Rising
Rams 25.167 28.125 2.958 -0.653 Rising
Patriots 3.667 6.250 2.583 1.611 Rising
Broncos 1.083 2.625 1.542 1.209 Rising
Ravens 13.333 14.625 1.292 -1.097 Rising
Redskins 25.417 26.500 1.083 -0.750 Rising
Chiefs 5.417 6.375 0.958 -2.570 Rising
Cardinals 22.250 23.000 0.750 -0.972 Rising
Seahawks 1.917 2.375 0.458 -0.653 Rising
Cowboys 16.583 17.000 0.417 0.306 Rising
Saints 3.333 3.375 0.042 -1.791 Rising
Steelers 29.000 28.875 -0.125 -0.097 Rising
Raiders 29.167 29.000 -0.167 4.139 Rising
Jaguars 32.000 31.750 -0.250 1.083 Rising
Dolphins 10.083 9.625 -0.458 0.542 Rising
Vikings 24.750 24.125 -0.625 1.042 Rising
Colts 7.250 5.875 -1.375 0.264 Rising
Falcons 17.917 16.250 -1.667 0.111 Rising
Eagles 24.000 22.250 -1.750 -4.333 Rising
Texans 13.000 11.125 -1.875 -3.153 Rising
Browns 19.333 17.375 -1.958 1.820 Rising
Giants 29.333 27.250 -2.083 2.000 Rising
Chargers 16.417 13.750 -2.667 -5.250 Rising
Jets 23.500 18.875 -4.625 2.542 Rising
Bills 20.167 15.125 -5.042 0.597 Rising
Titans 13.667 8.625 -5.042 -8.264 Rising
Buccaneers 30.417 23.500 -6.917 2.722 Rising
Panthers 21.083 10.000 -11.083 -0.916 Rising

Observations:

  • The 49ers looked good this week, but apparently it wasn't as good as pundits like to think. Their "over-ranking" actually grew.
  • The 49ers, Bears and Bengals are ridiculously "over-ranked" and their success should be taken with a grain of salt.
  • Just imagine if Carolina could put things together. They'd be scary good. If only they had a competent head coach. I think San Diego would be willing to welcome him home again as a Defensive Coordinator.
  • Chargers are actually under-ranked for once!

Sources

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