2012 NFL Consensus Power Rankings: Week 1

The regular season is here! With it, we get a first real dose of Power Rankings.

There's NFL regular season football being played tonight. Let that sink in a bit. As such, we're doing the NFL Consensus Power Rankings a day earlier than normal so these rankings don't get invalidated should there be an unlikely upset this evening. To make room for them, my AFC West update will come out tomorrow; and since none of the AFC West teams are playing tonight, that's not an issue.

It's week 1 of the NFL season. It seems everyone "in the know" is quite down on the Chargers to start this season. At best, we can expect the Chargers to be a mediocre team at this point. Part of the fun of looking at these rankings at the start of the year is how different a lot of the pundits think various teams are.

As you'll see in this week's rankings, the rankings are all over the map. There is some consensus at the top and bottom of the rankings, but in between, things are a bit muddled. As the season goes on, the rankings will start to fall more in line with each other.


Notable Quotes

Reddit

Key injuries are back like an unwelcome visit from your in-laws. The defense looks amazing, but troubles are back on the Oline. Hopefully increased depth will help overcome health issues.


Sports Illustrated

It's win or start over time in San Diego, and that does tend to narrow a team's focus. But the Chargers still struggle to find a sense of consistency throughout the season, and that maddening trait hasn't changed in the Norv Turner era. There's talent here, but San Diego just isn't a resilient team that's capable of overcoming much adversity.

2012 Bottom Line: The Chargers look like a third-place team that will continue to underachieve.

Ouch. Well that's kind of sobering, but pretty spot-on.

ProFootballTalk

Having a franchise quarterback and not much more makes for an interesting experiment in San Diego. It also could make for a new G.M. and head coach by next year.

... and not much more?


Division Averages

Division Avg Ranking
NFC East 12.1875
NFC North 13.4531
AFC North 14.9688
NFC South 15.1719
AFC East 17.1875
AFC West 18.3594
AFC South 20.2656
NFC West 20.4063

That looks about right. Plenty more after the jump!

Subjective Average

Subjective
ESPN Fox CBS USA Today Sports Illustrated ProFootballTalk NFL.com SportingNews Pro Football Weekly National Football Post SB Nation Reddit Associated Press ProFootballFocus Average Standard Deviation
Packers 1 3 1 1 1 1 1 3 4 1 1 1 1 1 1.500 0.982
Patriots 2 2 3 2 2 3 4 5 2 2 3 2 2 2 2.571 0.904
Giants 3 8 2 3 3 2 2 1 1 3 2 3 3 4 2.857 1.641
Texans 5 6 4 6 4 5 3 6 7 6 6 6 6 3 5.214 1.206
49ers 4 4 11 5 6 8 5 2 3 5 8 4 4 8 5.500 2.353
Ravens 6 5 12 8 5 4 6 4 6 8 4 5 5 6 6.000 2.070
Saints 11 9 9 4 7 7 7 9 8 4 7 10 9 5 7.571 2.060
Eagles 7 1 6 7 9 9 8 12 5 7 12 12 8 9 8.000 2.879
Steelers 8 15 8 9 8 6 9 10 9 9 5 9 7 7 8.500 2.228
Falcons 10 7 5 10 10 10 11 8 11 10 13 11 10 10 9.714 1.868
Bears 9 12 13 11 16 11 10 13 10 11 10 8 12 11 11.214 1.897
Broncos 13 16 10 12 11 14 13 7 12 12 11 13 11 13 12.000 2.000
Lions 12 10 15 13 13 12 12 14 13 13 9 7 13 15 12.214 2.144
Bengals 16 14 7 15 15 17 16 11 14 15 16 14 14 19 14.500 2.719
Cowboys 14 13 14 14 19 13 14 15 17 14 15 15 15 12 14.571 1.678
Chargers 15 17 16 16 20 20 19 20 16 16 22 16 16 17 17.571 2.095
Chiefs 17 11 22 19 18 19 15 21 15 19 23 20 17 14 17.857 3.182
Panthers 22 21 24 17 17 15 17 16 19 17 14 17 18 20 18.143 2.669
Bills 19 18 17 22 14 18 21 17 18 22 17 19 20 16 18.429 2.195
Seahawks 20 24 20 20 12 16 18 19 21 20 24 18 22 18 19.429 2.993
Jets 21 20 18 18 22 22 22 24 23 18 18 22 19 21 20.571 1.990
Titans 18 22 23 21 21 21 20 18 20 21 21 21 21 22 20.714 1.333
Redskins 24 23 26 23 23 24 23 23 22 23 19 24 24 26 23.357 1.630
Raiders 26 28 21 26 26 23 24 32 25 26 26 23 23 23 25.143 2.615
Buccaneers 25 19 27 27 24 27 25 22 29 27 25 26 26 28 25.500 2.471
Cardinals 23 26 19 24 30 25 27 26 24 24 31 25 25 30 25.643 3.038
Colts 32 25 29 30 25 26 28 28 32 30 20 29 27 24 27.500 3.179
Jaguars 29 31 25 32 29 28 26 25 27 32 29 30 31 25 28.500 2.471
Vikings 30 29 30 28 28 29 30 29 30 28 27 28 28 27 28.643 1.043
Rams 28 27 28 29 27 30 29 27 31 29 28 31 29 31 28.857 1.407
Dolphins 27 30 31 25 32 31 31 30 28 25 30 27 30 29 29.000 2.171
Browns 31 32 32 31 31 32 32 31 26 31 32 32 32 32 31.214 1.520

Observations:

  • Like I alluded to previously, the Chargers are are ranked in the bottom-half in the league, just barely above the Chiefs.
  • Biggest WTF of the week: Fox's Brian Billick ranking the Eagles as the best team in the NFL (and Steelers 15th).
  • Honorable WTF mention: SI's Don Banks ranking the Seahawks 12th.
  • There's a distinct grouping of where the Chargers are being ranked: either they're ~16th or ~20th. Interesting.
  • SportingNews has the Raiders as the worst team in the league. Have I mentioned how much I like SportingNews (this week at least)?

Subjective Standard Deviation

Subjective
ESPN Fox CBS USA Today Sports Illustrated ProFootballTalk NFL.com SportingNews Pro Football Weekly National Football Post SB Nation Reddit Associated Press ProFootballFocus Average Standard Deviation
Patriots 2 2 3 2 2 3 4 5 2 2 3 2 2 2 2.571 0.904
Packers 1 3 1 1 1 1 1 3 4 1 1 1 1 1 1.500 0.982
Vikings 30 29 30 28 28 29 30 29 30 28 27 28 28 27 28.643 1.043
Texans 5 6 4 6 4 5 3 6 7 6 6 6 6 3 5.214 1.206
Titans 18 22 23 21 21 21 20 18 20 21 21 21 21 22 20.714 1.333
Rams 28 27 28 29 27 30 29 27 31 29 28 31 29 31 28.857 1.407
Browns 31 32 32 31 31 32 32 31 26 31 32 32 32 32 31.214 1.520
Redskins 24 23 26 23 23 24 23 23 22 23 19 24 24 26 23.357 1.630
Giants 3 8 2 3 3 2 2 1 1 3 2 3 3 4 2.857 1.641
Cowboys 14 13 14 14 19 13 14 15 17 14 15 15 15 12 14.571 1.678
Falcons 10 7 5 10 10 10 11 8 11 10 13 11 10 10 9.714 1.868
Bears 9 12 13 11 16 11 10 13 10 11 10 8 12 11 11.214 1.897
Jets 21 20 18 18 22 22 22 24 23 18 18 22 19 21 20.571 1.990
Broncos 13 16 10 12 11 14 13 7 12 12 11 13 11 13 12.000 2.000
Saints 11 9 9 4 7 7 7 9 8 4 7 10 9 5 7.571 2.060
Ravens 6 5 12 8 5 4 6 4 6 8 4 5 5 6 6.000 2.070
Chargers 15 17 16 16 20 20 19 20 16 16 22 16 16 17 17.571 2.095
Lions 12 10 15 13 13 12 12 14 13 13 9 7 13 15 12.214 2.144
Dolphins 27 30 31 25 32 31 31 30 28 25 30 27 30 29 29.000 2.171
Bills 19 18 17 22 14 18 21 17 18 22 17 19 20 16 18.429 2.195
Steelers 8 15 8 9 8 6 9 10 9 9 5 9 7 7 8.500 2.228
49ers 4 4 11 5 6 8 5 2 3 5 8 4 4 8 5.500 2.353
Buccaneers 25 19 27 27 24 27 25 22 29 27 25 26 26 28 25.500 2.471
Jaguars 29 31 25 32 29 28 26 25 27 32 29 30 31 25 28.500 2.471
Raiders 26 28 21 26 26 23 24 32 25 26 26 23 23 23 25.143 2.615
Panthers 22 21 24 17 17 15 17 16 19 17 14 17 18 20 18.143 2.669
Bengals 16 14 7 15 15 17 16 11 14 15 16 14 14 19 14.500 2.719
Eagles 7 1 6 7 9 9 8 12 5 7 12 12 8 9 8.000 2.879
Seahawks 20 24 20 20 12 16 18 19 21 20 24 18 22 18 19.429 2.993
Cardinals 23 26 19 24 30 25 27 26 24 24 31 25 25 30 25.643 3.038
Colts 32 25 29 30 25 26 28 28 32 30 20 29 27 24 27.500 3.179
Chiefs 17 11 22 19 18 19 15 21 15 19 23 20 17 14 17.857 3.182

Observations:

  • Remember me mentioning that the rankings are a little more over the place to start the season? This should make that a little more obvious. There's a pretty smooth gradient from most-consistently ranked to least-consistently ranked. At the end of the 2011 season, all but 5 teams had a StdDev less than 1.5. To start the season, you can only say that about 6 teams.
  • Outside of that, I think the numbers speak for themselves.

Objective Average

Objective
Football Outsiders Sagarin Average Standard Deviation
Patriots 1 1 1.000 0.000
Packers 2 2 2.000 0.000
Steelers 4 3 3.500 0.500
Saints 5 5 5.000 0.000
Ravens 7 6 6.500 0.500
Giants 9 7 8.000 1.000
Eagles 12 4 8.000 4.000
Falcons 3 16 9.500 6.500
Bears 6 14 10.000 4.000
Jets 8 13 10.500 2.500
Texans 9 13 11.000 2.000
Cowboys 14 11 12.500 1.500
Chargers 19 10 14.500 4.500
Titans 17 12 14.500 2.500
49ers 23 8 15.500 7.500
Broncos 11 21 16.000 5.000
Panthers 10 27 18.500 8.500
Lions 21 19 20.000 1.000
Redskins 20 20 20.000 0.000
Bengals 18 22 20.000 2.000
Bills 16 25 20.500 4.500
Seahawks 28 15 21.500 6.500
Colts 27 17 22.000 5.000
Chiefs 15 31 23.000 8.000
Vikings 29 18 23.500 5.500
Dolphins 25 23 24.000 1.000
Raiders 24 28 26.000 2.000
Buccaneers 22 30 26.000 4.000
Jaguars 26 29 27.500 1.500
Browns 31 24 27.500 3.500
Cardinals 30 26 28.000 2.000
Rams 32 32 32.000 0.000

Observations:

  • With only 2 objective sites giving us rankings this week, there's not much to discuss at the moment. I'm just putting them here for you to see.

Objective Standard Deviation

Objective
Football Outsiders Sagarin Average Standard Deviation
Rams 32 32 32.000 0.000
Packers 2 2 2.000 0.000
Redskins 20 20 20.000 0.000
Saints 5 5 5.000 0.000
Patriots 1 1 1.000 0.000
Steelers 4 3 3.500 0.500
Ravens 7 6 6.500 0.500
Lions 21 19 20.000 1.000
Dolphins 25 23 24.000 1.000
Giants 9 7 8.000 1.000
Cowboys 14 11 12.500 1.500
Jaguars 26 29 27.500 1.500
Raiders 24 28 26.000 2.000
Texans 13 9 11.000 2.000
Cardinals 30 26 28.000 2.000
Bengals 18 22 20.000 2.000
Titans 17 12 14.500 2.500
Jets 8 13 10.500 2.500
Browns 31 24 27.500 3.500
Buccaneers 22 30 26.000 4.000
Eagles 12 4 8.000 4.000
Bears 6 14 10.000 4.000
Chargers 19 10 14.500 4.500
Bills 16 25 20.500 4.500
Broncos 11 21 16.000 5.000
Colts 27 17 22.000 5.000
Vikings 29 18 23.500 5.500
Falcons 3 16 9.500 6.500
Seahawks 28 15 21.500 6.500
49ers 23 8 15.500 7.500
Chiefs 15 31 23.000 8.000
Panthers 10 27 18.500 8.500

Overall Average

Subj vs Obj
Subjective Average Objevtive Average Average Standard Deviation Standard Deviation
Packers 1.500 2.000 1.750 0.933 0.500
Patriots 2.571 1.000 1.786 0.992 -1.571
Giants 2.857 8.000 5.429 2.318 5.143
Steelers 8.500 3.500 6.000 2.666 -5.000
Ravens 6.000 6.500 6.250 1.952 0.500
Saints 7.571 5.000 6.286 2.107 -2.571
Eagles 8.000 8.000 8.000 3.041 0.000
Texans 5.214 11.000 8.107 2.331 5.786
Falcons 9.714 9.500 9.607 2.888 -0.214
49ers 5.500 15.500 10.500 4.776 10.000
Bears 11.214 10.000 10.607 2.304 -1.214
Cowboys 14.571 12.500 13.536 1.793 -2.071
Broncos 12.000 16.000 14.000 2.894 4.000
Jets 20.571 10.500 15.536 3.917 -10.071
Chargers 17.571 14.500 16.036 2.721 -3.071
Lions 12.214 20.000 16.107 3.283 7.786
Bengals 14.500 20.000 17.250 3.206 5.500
Titans 20.714 14.500 17.607 2.561 -6.214
Panthers 18.143 18.500 18.321 3.909 0.357
Bills 18.429 20.500 19.464 2.686 2.071
Chiefs 17.857 23.000 20.429 4.444 5.143
Seahawks 19.429 21.500 20.464 3.686 2.071
Redskins 23.357 20.000 21.679 1.886 -3.357
Colts 27.500 22.000 24.750 3.909 -5.500
Raiders 25.143 26.000 25.571 2.562 0.857
Buccaneers 25.500 26.000 25.750 2.715 0.500
Vikings 28.643 23.500 26.071 2.761 -5.143
Dolphins 29.000 24.000 26.500 2.643 -5.000
Cardinals 25.643 28.000 26.821 3.030 2.357
Jaguars 28.500 27.500 28.000 2.395 -1.000
Browns 31.214 27.500 29.357 2.250 -3.714
Rams 28.857 32.000 30.429 1.677 3.143

Overall Standard Deviation

Subj vs Obj
Subjective Average Objevtive Average Average Standard Deviation Standard Deviation
Packers 1.500 2.000 1.750 0.933 0.500
Patriots 2.571 1.000 1.786 0.992 -1.571
Rams 28.857 32.000 30.429 1.677 3.143
Cowboys 14.571 12.500 13.536 1.793 -2.071
Redskins 23.357 20.000 21.679 1.886 -3.357
Ravens 6.000 6.500 6.250 1.952 0.500
Saints 7.571 5.000 6.286 2.107 -2.571
Browns 31.214 27.500 29.357 2.250 -3.714
Bears 11.214 10.000 10.607 2.304 -1.214
Giants 2.857 8.000 5.429 2.318 5.143
Texans 5.214 11.000 8.107 2.331 5.786
Jaguars 28.500 27.500 28.000 2.395 -1.000
Titans 20.714 14.500 17.607 2.561 -6.214
Raiders 25.143 26.000 25.571 2.562 0.857
Dolphins 29.000 24.000 26.500 2.643 -5.000
Steelers 8.500 3.500 6.000 2.666 -5.000
Bills 18.429 20.500 19.464 2.686 2.071
Buccaneers 25.500 26.000 25.750 2.715 0.500
Chargers 17.571 14.500 16.036 2.721 -3.071
Vikings 28.643 23.500 26.071 2.761 -5.143
Falcons 9.714 9.500 9.607 2.888 -0.214
Broncos 12.000 16.000 14.000 2.894 4.000
Cardinals 25.643 28.000 26.821 3.030 2.357
Eagles 8.000 8.000 8.000 3.041 0.000
Bengals 14.500 20.000 17.250 3.206 5.500
Lions 12.214 20.000 16.107 3.283 7.786
Seahawks 19.429 21.500 20.464 3.686 2.071
Panthers 18.143 18.500 18.321 3.909 0.357
Colts 27.500 22.000 24.750 3.909 -5.500
Jets 20.571 10.500 15.536 3.917 -10.071
Chiefs 17.857 23.000 20.429 4.444 5.143
49ers 5.500 15.500 10.500 4.776 10.000

Difference in Averages

Subj vs Obj
Subjective Average Objevtive Average Average Standard Deviation Standard Deviation
49ers 5.500 15.500 10.500 4.776 10.000
Lions 12.214 20.000 16.107 3.283 7.786
Texans 5.214 11.000 8.107 2.331 5.786
Bengals 14.500 20.000 17.250 3.206 5.500
Chiefs 17.857 23.000 20.429 4.444 5.143
Giants 2.857 8.000 5.429 2.318 5.143
Broncos 12.000 16.000 14.000 2.894 4.000
Rams 28.857 32.000 30.429 1.677 3.143
Cardinals 25.643 28.000 26.821 3.030 2.357
Seahawks 19.429 21.500 20.464 3.686 2.071
Bills 18.429 20.500 19.464 2.686 2.071
Raiders 25.143 26.000 25.571 2.562 0.857
Buccaneers 25.500 26.000 25.750 2.715 0.500
Packers 1.500 2.000 1.750 0.933 0.500
Ravens 6.000 6.500 6.250 1.952 0.500
Panthers 18.143 18.500 18.321 3.909 0.357
Eagles 8.000 8.000 8.000 3.041 0.000
Falcons 9.714 9.500 9.607 2.888 -0.214
Jaguars 28.500 27.500 28.000 2.395 -1.000
Bears 11.214 10.000 10.607 2.304 -1.214
Patriots 2.571 1.000 1.786 0.992 -1.571
Cowboys 14.571 12.500 13.536 1.793 -2.071
Saints 7.571 5.000 6.286 2.107 -2.571
Chargers 17.571 14.500 16.036 2.721 -3.071
Redskins 23.357 20.000 21.679 1.886 -3.357
Browns 31.214 27.500 29.357 2.250 -3.714
Steelers 8.500 3.500 6.000 2.666 -5.000
Dolphins 29.000 24.000 26.500 2.643 -5.000
Vikings 28.643 23.500 26.071 2.761 -5.143
Colts 27.500 22.000 24.750 3.909 -5.500
Titans 20.714 14.500 17.607 2.561 -6.214
Jets 20.571 10.500 15.536 3.917 -10.071

Sources

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