2012 NFL Power Rankings Consensus: Week 4

Bruce Kluckhohn-US PRESSWIRE - Presswire

It's always fun to see how much each team moves in the rankings week-in and week-out. How much did the Chargers fall after their loss to the Falcons? How much higher did the Falcons climb? Those questions are answered and more in this week's Power Rankings analysis.

You'd think that by Week 3, with nearly 20% of the season complete, we would know more about the teams by now. But there were some major upsets this past weekend and the rankings reflect that.

One interesting thing about Power Rankings: just because one team beats another team, it doesn't automatically make them the better team. Perceptions aren't shaken after one bad (or good) game. Take the 49ers for example. The Minnesota Vikings took care of them rather handily on Sunday. Did they plummet? Not really, they only dropped on average just under 3 spots from last week. Are the Vikings ranked higher than the 49ers? Again, no. But, Minnesota does top this week's Stock Rising list.

Thankfully for the Chargers, getting blown out at home by a very good Atlanta team didn't cause them to plummet either. In fact they didn't even show up in the top-5 of the Stock Falling list. San Diego dropped an average of about 3.2 (subjective) spots this week. That's not that bad considering how bad a game it really was.

Notable Quotes

Fox Sports

The Chargers were simply outmatched on Sunday. The Falcons were better in all three phases of the game. Sometimes you just get beat, and that is what happened to the Chargers.

Sports Illustrated

Given the way their schedule unfolds, with just two home games in the next eight weeks, the Chargers could have really used a second home win last Sunday against Atlanta. But they didn't even look like they belonged on the same field as the powerful Falcons, and now trips to Kansas City and New Orleans await the next two weeks. Time for Philip Rivers and the offense to re-assert themselves.

SB Nation

The Chargers were all alone atop the AFC West last week. Now they're playing to maintain their first place lead. Chargers-Chiefs and Raiders-Broncos in Week 4. An AFC West special.

Reddit

The Chargers failed their first real test of the season. Incomplete passes and 4 turnovers puts the loss squarely on the offenses shoulders. Jackie Battle accounted for nearly half of the total rushing yards with only 3 touches. Welcome back Mathews, please go sit on the bench.

I was with you until the last sentence.

Division Averages

Division Avg Ranking
NFC West 12.6000
NFC East 12.7167
NFC North 14.0333
AFC North 15.9833
AFC East 16.8000
NFC South 19.0667
AFC West 19.8333
AFC South 20.9667

Would it be wrong to kind of expect the AFC West to be the bottom division next week?

Stock Rising

Team Week 3 Average Week 4 Average Difference
MIN 27.286 19.000 8.286
ARI 14.643 6.727 7.916
SEA 18.143 11.818 6.325
OAK 30.143 25.727 4.416
CIN 17.857 13.546 4.311

Stock Falling

Team Week 3 Average Week 4 Average Difference
NO 19.786 26.909 -7.123
CAR 18.000 24.455 -6.455
DET 13.500 18.818 -5.318
PHI 6.286 11.273 -4.987
DEN 10.643 15.091 -4.448

Subjective Average

Subjective
ESPN Fox CBS USA Today Sports Illustrated ProFootballTalk NFL.com Pro Football Weekly SB Nation Reddit Associated Press Average Change since last period
Texans 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1.091 1.195 Rising
Falcons 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 1 2 2 2.000 2.500 Rising
Ravens 3 3 5 3 3 2 4 4 3 3 3 3.273 2.298 Rising
49ers 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 4 4 4 3.818 -2.818 Falling
Giants 6 5 8 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 5.546 2.740 Rising
Cardinals 5 6 3 13 6 7 6 6 9 7 6 6.727 7.916 Rising
Packers 7 7 16 5 7 6 8 7 6 5 7 7.364 -3.650 Falling
Patriots 8 12 10 7 8 8 7 8 7 8 8 8.273 -2.630 Falling
Bears 11 9 7 10 12 12 11 9 8 9 10 9.818 3.253 Rising
Cowboys 12 8 6 9 9 10 12 13 14 10 11 10.364 2.922 Rising
Eagles 9 11 12 8 10 17 10 10 10 15 12 11.273 -4.987 Falling
Seahawks 10 13 11 18 11 9 9 12 12 16 9 11.818 6.325 Rising
Bengals 15 10 9 16 13 14 15 16 13 14 14 13.546 4.311 Rising
Steelers 16 15 14 12 16 11 14 15 11 12 15 13.727 -4.370 Falling
Chargers 13 16 13 15 17 19 16 11 15 11 13 14.455 -3.241 Falling
Broncos 14 17 19 14 15 13 13 14 18 13 16 15.091 -4.448 Falling
Jets 17 19 15 20 18 15 17 17 16 18 18 17.273 1.513 Rising
Bills 19 14 17 21 19 18 19 18 17 19 20 18.273 3.513 Rising
Lions 18 20 22 11 20 23 18 19 20 17 19 18.818 -5.318 Falling
Vikings 21 18 18 24 14 16 20 20 19 22 17 19.000 8.286 Rising
Redskins 22 22 25 22 22 22 21 22 21 21 21 21.909 -2.980 Falling
Buccaneers 20 23 26 23 21 24 22 21 23 20 22 22.273 -1.630 Falling
Titans 24 24 21 26 25 21 25 24 26 27 25 24.364 3.279 Rising
Chiefs 26 21 23 27 23 27 24 25 25 24 24 24.455 3.402 Rising
Panthers 23 27 29 19 27 25 23 23 27 23 23 24.455 -6.455 Falling
Raiders 27 26 20 29 26 20 27 27 30 25 26 25.727 4.416 Rising
Rams 25 25 24 25 24 26 28 30 28 26 29 26.364 -2.721 Falling
Saints 28 28 31 17 29 30 26 29 22 29 27 26.909 -7.123 Falling
Dolphins 29 31 30 28 30 31 29 26 29 28 28 29.000 -2.429 Falling
Jaguars 30 29 27 32 28 28 30 28 31 30 30 29.364 1.779 Rising
Colts 31 30 28 31 31 29 31 31 24 31 31 29.818 -3.889 Falling
Browns 32 32 32 30 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 31.818 -0.961 Falling

Observations:

  • The Teaxans are your new number-1 team. It's not quite a consensus this time around but it's pretty close.
  • The Falcons are pretty much a number-2 consensus as well. Though they have an exact 2.000 average, SB Nation (1) and PFT (3) cancel each other out and average out to 2.
  • After a little bit of optimism invaded Cleveland, the Browns are settling back in to their all-too-comfortable 32-spot
  • Sometimes you'll get pundits who are slow to join the crowd, in either direction. Sometimes teams are ranked too high, others too low. This week, CBS has given up on the Packers before everyone else and USA Today doesn't have the same faith in the Cardinals as everyone else. Also USA Today and the Seahawks and Lions.
  • The Chargers dropped back down to around 14th. They're still higher than they were to start the season and even following the Week 1 win. They just lost a little ground they gained when they dominated the Titans.
  • There aren't really any sharp delineations this week, it's kind of a smooth and consistent transition through the rankings. Somtimes clusters will develop, not so much this week.

Subjective Standard Deviation

Subjective
ESPN Fox CBS USA Today Sports Illustrated ProFootballTalk NFL.com Pro Football Weekly SB Nation Reddit Associated Press Standard Deviation Change since last period
Texans 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 0.288 -0.412 Falling
49ers 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 4 4 4 0.386 0.386 Rising
Falcons 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 1 2 2 0.426 -1.211 Falling
Browns 32 32 32 30 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 0.575 -0.485 Falling
Ravens 3 3 5 3 3 2 4 4 3 3 3 0.750 -0.229 Falling
Giants 6 5 8 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 0.891 -1.089 Falling
Redskins 22 22 25 22 22 22 21 22 21 21 21 1.083 -0.708 Falling
Dolphins 29 31 30 28 30 31 29 26 29 28 28 1.414 0.066 Rising
Patriots 8 12 10 7 8 8 7 8 7 8 8 1.420 -0.566 Falling
Jaguars 30 29 27 32 28 28 30 28 31 30 30 1.432 0.307 Rising
Jets 17 19 15 20 18 15 17 17 16 18 18 1.483 -0.172 Falling
Bears 11 9 7 10 12 12 11 9 8 9 10 1.527 -0.264 Falling
Buccaneers 20 23 26 23 21 24 22 21 23 20 22 1.710 -0.669 Falling
Chiefs 26 21 23 27 23 27 24 25 25 24 24 1.725 0.084 Rising
Bills 19 14 17 21 19 18 19 18 17 19 20 1.763 0.151 Rising
Steelers 16 15 14 12 16 11 14 15 11 12 15 1.814 0.705 Rising
Titans 24 24 21 26 25 21 25 24 26 27 25 1.823 -0.090 Falling
Rams 25 25 24 25 24 26 28 30 28 26 29 1.967 0.210 Rising
Broncos 14 17 19 14 15 13 13 14 18 13 16 2.021 -0.001 Falling
Colts 31 30 28 31 31 29 31 31 24 31 31 2.081 -0.106 Falling
Bengals 15 10 9 16 13 14 15 16 13 14 14 2.148 0.048 Rising
Cowboys 12 8 6 9 9 10 12 13 14 10 11 2.227 0.042 Rising
Chargers 13 16 13 15 17 19 16 11 15 11 13 2.388 -0.153 Falling
Cardinals 5 6 3 13 6 7 6 6 9 7 6 2.416 -0.849 Falling
Eagles 9 11 12 8 10 17 10 10 10 15 12 2.526 0.903 Rising
Vikings 21 18 18 24 14 16 20 20 19 22 17 2.697 1.419 Rising
Panthers 23 27 29 19 27 25 23 23 27 23 23 2.709 0.259 Rising
Seahawks 10 13 11 18 11 9 9 12 12 16 9 2.790 -0.545 Falling
Packers 7 7 16 5 7 6 8 7 6 5 7 2.869 1.484 Rising
Lions 18 20 22 11 20 23 18 19 20 17 19 2.979 0.783 Rising
Raiders 27 26 20 29 26 20 27 27 30 25 26 3.018 1.716 Rising
Saints 28 28 31 17 29 30 26 29 22 29 27 3.872 -0.682 Falling

Observations:

  • There is no unanimous consensus this week. But the Texans are still solidly the consensus number-one this week.
  • I expected the Falcons to be more consistently ranked, but the 49ers actually edged them out.
  • Like I said: Cleveland is settling in.
  • Even though the Chargers are down in the bottom-third of consistency, their STDEV actually went down this week. So a consensus is slowly devloping there.
  • Interesting. Usually when a team moves, their STDDEV tends to go up. There are some exceptions to that rule (see the Chargers) but look at the Broncos. They dropped nearly 4.5 spots this week, but it was practically in unison across the board.
  • Interestingly, 9 of the 11 least-consistently-ranked teams are NFC teams. It seems like the NFC is a little more difficult to figure out?

Objective Average

Objective
Football Outsiders Team Rankings Sagarin BeatGraphs Average Change since last period
Falcons 1 2 4 3 2.500 4.000 Rising
Ravens 3 4 1 7 3.750 2.500 Rising
Texans 5 3 3 10 5.250 1.750 Rising
Patriots 2 7 2 15 6.500 -0.250 Falling
Cardinals 24 1 5 1 7.750 3.000 Rising
Seahawks 19 5 6 2 8.000 1.250 Rising
49ers 10 10 8 6 8.500 -3.500 Falling
Giants 7 8 7 13 8.750 4.500 Rising
Eagles 13 6 17 5 10.250 -3.750 Falling
Packers 4 14 9 14 10.250 -4.000 Falling
Jets 12 11 12 11 11.500 4.000 Rising
Cowboys 16 9 14 8 11.750 -0.250 Falling
Bears 6 18 11 17 13.000 0.500 Rising
Bills 9 15 18 12 13.500 9.500 Rising
Vikings 17 20 16 4 14.250 10.500 Rising
Broncos 8 16 15 18 14.250 -3.750 Falling
Chargers 22 13 13 9 14.250 -2.750 Falling
Steelers 14 17 10 23 16.000 -5.750 Falling
Bengals 26 12 19 16 18.250 3.000 Rising
Dolphins 20 19 22 20 20.250 -1.250 Falling
Lions 15 25 20 27 21.750 -6.750 Falling
Jaguars 30 22 24 19 23.750 7.250 Rising
Buccaneers 23 26 23 25 24.250 -1.250 Falling
Saints 11 31 25 32 24.750 -3.500 Falling
Chiefs 29 21 28 21 24.750 5.250 Rising
Redskins 21 27 21 31 25.000 -5.250 Falling
Raiders 25 24 29 22 25.000 2.500 Rising
Titans 28 23 26 24 25.250 -0.500 Falling
Panthers 18 28 31 29 26.500 -5.000 Falling
Colts 27 30 27 26 27.500 -2.750 Falling
Browns 31 32 30 28 30.250 -3.000 Falling
Rams 32 29 32 30 30.750 -6.250 Falling

Observations:

  • Football Outsiders: not convinced about the Cardinals, nor Seahawks. And still holding out hope for the Saints. (Most of this can be explained by the fact that their rankings still use 55% pre-season projections).
  • The Chargers actually dropped less this week Objectively than they did Subjectively. Even though it looked like a terrible game, it wasn't that bad?
  • Vikings had an excellent showing against San Francisco, and are rewarded handsomly with a 10.5-spot jump in the Objective Rankings this week.
  • A three-way tie at 14.25 between the Vikings, Broncos and Chargers. Neat.

Objective Standard Deviation

Objective
Football Outsiders Team Rankings Sagarin BeatGraphs Standard Deviation Change since last period
Jets 12 11 12 11 0.500 -5.437 Falling
Dolphins 20 19 22 20 1.090 -1.826 Falling
Falcons 1 2 4 3 1.118 -2.453 Falling
Rams 32 29 32 30 1.299 -4.804 Falling
Buccaneers 23 26 23 25 1.299 -2.307 Falling
Browns 31 32 30 28 1.479 -0.306 Falling
Colts 27 30 27 26 1.500 -2.332 Falling
49ers 10 10 8 6 1.658 -3.085 Falling
Titans 28 23 26 24 1.920 -0.568 Falling
Ravens 3 4 1 7 2.165 -1.467 Falling
Giants 7 8 7 13 2.488 -0.781 Falling
Raiders 25 24 29 22 2.550 0.892 Rising
Texans 5 3 3 10 2.861 0.625 Rising
Cowboys 16 9 14 8 3.345 -1.372 Falling
Bills 9 15 18 12 3.354 -0.182 Falling
Chiefs 29 21 28 21 3.767 1.896 Rising
Broncos 8 16 15 18 3.767 -0.074 Falling
Jaguars 30 22 24 19 4.023 3.316 Rising
Packers 4 14 9 14 4.146 -0.177 Falling
Redskins 21 27 21 31 4.243 1.130 Rising
Lions 15 25 20 27 4.657 1.266 Rising
Steelers 14 17 10 23 4.743 1.398 Rising
Chargers 22 13 13 9 4.763 2.584 Rising
Bears 6 18 11 17 4.848 -0.127 Falling
Eagles 13 6 17 5 4.969 2.097 Rising
Panthers 18 28 31 29 5.025 -2.541 Falling
Bengals 26 12 19 16 5.117 1.772 Rising
Patriots 2 7 2 15 5.315 -0.824 Falling
Vikings 17 20 16 4 6.098 2.075 Rising
Seahawks 19 5 6 2 6.519 -0.494 Falling
Saints 11 31 25 32 8.378 1.051 Rising
Cardinals 24 1 5 1 9.523 -2.126 Falling

Observations:

  • The three teams with the highest STD DEV this week can all thank Football Outsiders for that.
  • San Diego's STD DEV went up this week, again thanks to FBO.
  • I've talked about this before, but usually the best and worst teams tend to have the lowest STD DEV merely by the fact that they can only move so far at each end. When teams in the middle tend to be the most consistently-ranked, it's fun to see. This week the two most (objectively) consistently-ranked teams are the Jets and Dolphins; at 11.500 and 20.250 positions respectively.

Overall Average

Subj vs Obj
Subjective Average Objective Average Average Change since last period
Falcons 2.000 2.500 2.250 3.250 Rising
Texans 1.091 5.250 3.170 1.473 Rising
Ravens 3.273 3.750 3.511 2.400 Rising
49ers 3.818 8.500 6.159 -3.159 Falling
Giants 5.546 8.750 7.148 3.620 Rising
Cardinals 6.727 7.750 7.239 5.457 Rising
Patriots 8.273 6.500 7.386 -1.440 Falling
Packers 7.364 10.250 8.807 -3.825 Falling
Seahawks 11.818 8.000 9.909 3.787 Rising
Eagles 11.273 10.250 10.761 -4.368 Falling
Cowboys 10.364 11.750 11.057 1.336 Rising
Bears 9.818 13.000 11.409 1.877 Rising
Chargers 14.455 14.250 14.352 -2.995 Falling
Jets 17.273 11.500 14.386 2.757 Rising
Broncos 15.091 14.250 14.670 -4.099 Falling
Steelers 13.727 16.000 14.864 -5.060 Falling
Bills 18.273 13.500 15.886 6.507 Rising
Bengals 13.546 18.250 15.898 3.656 Rising
Vikings 19.000 14.250 16.625 9.393 Rising
Lions 18.818 21.750 20.284 -6.034 Falling
Buccaneers 22.273 24.250 23.261 -1.440 Falling
Redskins 21.909 25.000 23.455 -4.116 Falling
Chiefs 24.455 24.750 24.602 4.327 Rising
Dolphins 29.000 20.250 24.625 -1.839 Falling
Titans 24.364 25.250 24.807 1.389 Rising
Raiders 25.727 25.000 25.364 3.457 Rising
Panthers 24.455 26.500 25.477 -5.727 Falling
Saints 26.909 24.750 25.830 -5.312 Falling
Jaguars 29.364 23.750 26.557 4.514 Rising
Rams 26.364 30.750 28.557 -4.486 Falling
Colts 29.818 27.500 28.659 -3.320 Falling
Browns 31.818 30.250 31.034 -1.980 Falling

Observations:

  • Once you factor in overall average, the Falcons knock-off the Texans as the top team in the league. In fact, the Texans are closer to number-3 Baltimore than they are the number-1 Atlanta.
  • This is where distinct clusters have developed. Look at the cluster of the teams ranked higher than 12th, then a cluster at 14-16, and another cluster at 20-on-down.
  • Of the top 12 teams, the NFC claims 9 spots to the AFC's 3. The NFC is turning into the power conference this year.
  • The Chargers are the next-best team out of the top-12, narrowly edging out the Broncos.

Overall Standard Deviation

Subj vs Obj
Subjective Average Objective Average Standard Deviation Change since last period
Falcons 2.000 2.500 0.718 -1.650 Falling
Browns 31.818 30.250 1.143 -0.814 Falling
Ravens 3.273 3.750 1.306 -0.632 Falling
Buccaneers 22.273 24.250 1.833 -1.039 Falling
Titans 24.364 25.250 1.890 -0.491 Falling
Giants 5.546 8.750 2.059 -1.053 Falling
Colts 29.818 27.500 2.197 -0.490 Falling
49ers 3.818 8.500 2.265 -0.522 Falling
Texans 1.091 5.250 2.372 0.063 Rising
Chiefs 24.455 24.750 2.446 0.531 Rising
Broncos 15.091 14.250 2.630 0.088 Rising
Cowboys 10.364 11.750 2.645 -0.390 Falling
Rams 26.364 30.750 2.655 -0.632 Falling
Redskins 21.909 25.000 2.744 0.561 Rising
Jets 17.273 11.500 2.863 -0.577 Falling
Raiders 25.727 25.000 2.918 1.147 Rising
Steelers 13.727 16.000 3.070 1.178 Rising
Patriots 8.273 6.500 3.103 -0.289 Falling
Bills 18.273 13.500 3.120 0.872 Rising
Bears 9.818 13.000 3.155 0.322 Rising
Chargers 14.455 14.250 3.200 0.732 Rising
Eagles 11.273 10.250 3.386 1.414 Rising
Jaguars 29.364 23.750 3.462 2.414 Rising
Packers 7.364 10.250 3.500 0.901 Rising
Panthers 24.455 26.500 3.596 -0.821 Falling
Lions 18.818 21.750 3.738 1.151 Rising
Bengals 13.546 18.250 3.833 1.021 Rising
Dolphins 29.000 20.250 4.093 0.458 Rising
Vikings 19.000 14.250 4.434 1.989 Rising
Seahawks 11.818 8.000 4.460 -1.306 Falling
Cardinals 6.727 7.750 5.354 -1.054 Falling
Saints 26.909 24.750 5.534 0.202 Rising

Observations:

  • That's better: now the best and worst teams on the list are the most consistently-ranked.
  • The Chargers are still towards the bottom of this list. Much like us fans, the rest of the nation is a little unsure of this team.
  • Even though the NFC owned the top 12 teams list, they aren't doing so well when it comes to garnering a consensus. Again, 8 of the 11 lest-consistent teams are in the NFC.

Difference in Averages

Subj vs Obj
Subjective Average Objective Average Standard Deviation Change since last period
Bengals 13.546 18.250 4.705 -1.312 Falling
49ers 3.818 8.500 4.682 -0.682 Falling
Rams 26.364 30.750 4.386 -3.529 Falling
Texans 1.091 5.250 4.159 0.555 Rising
Giants 5.546 8.750 3.205 1.759 Rising
Bears 9.818 13.000 3.182 -2.753 Falling
Redskins 21.909 25.000 3.091 -2.270 Falling
Lions 18.818 21.750 2.932 -1.432 Falling
Packers 7.364 10.250 2.886 -0.350 Falling
Steelers 13.727 16.000 2.273 -1.380 Falling
Panthers 24.455 26.500 2.046 1.454 Rising
Buccaneers 22.273 24.250 1.977 0.380 Rising
Cowboys 10.364 11.750 1.386 -3.172 Falling
Cardinals 6.727 7.750 1.023 -4.916 Falling
Titans 24.364 25.250 0.886 -3.779 Falling
Falcons 2.000 2.500 0.500 1.500 Rising
Ravens 3.273 3.750 0.477 0.202 Rising
Chiefs 24.455 24.750 0.296 1.847 Rising
Chargers 14.455 14.250 -0.205 0.491 Rising
Raiders 25.727 25.000 -0.727 -1.916 Falling
Broncos 15.091 14.250 -0.841 0.698 Rising
Eagles 11.273 10.250 -1.023 1.237 Rising
Browns 31.818 30.250 -1.568 -2.039 Falling
Patriots 8.273 6.500 -1.773 2.380 Rising
Saints 26.909 24.750 -2.159 3.623 Rising
Colts 29.818 27.500 -2.318 1.139 Rising
Seahawks 11.818 8.000 -3.818 -5.075 Falling
Vikings 19.000 14.250 -4.750 2.214 Rising
Bills 18.273 13.500 -4.773 5.987 Rising
Jaguars 29.364 23.750 -5.614 5.471 Rising
Jets 17.273 11.500 -5.773 2.487 Rising
Dolphins 29.000 20.250 -8.750 1.179 Rising

Observations:

  • The gap between the humans and the robots is getting narrower each week. Last week, the biggest swing was 4.964 to -8.893. This week it's only 4.705 to -8.750. Slow progress.
  • Either the perception is way off on the Bengals, 49ers, Rams and Texans, or they really are playing better than the computers suggest. Usually it's the latter, but sometimes the bottom does drop out of a team and they end up falling to their Objective average.
  • Ever since they drafted Sam Bradford, there has been hope that the Rams are better than they seem; this year is no exception as the subjective rankers are still holding the Rams up.
  • Looks like the AFC East is getting no respect: 3 of 4 most under-ranked teams come from the AFC East. The Dolphins are running away with it too. I guess first impressions are more important than I thought.
  • The Chargers have settled. They actually have the smallest disparity between their Subjective and Objective rankings; they're about where they should be.

Sources

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