2012 NFL Consensus Power Rankings: Week 2

Week 1 of the NFL season always surprises everyone with big upsets and disappointments. The 2012 season is no exception as we see a big shakeup in the rankings.

One thing that's a constant in the NFL: Week 1 will surprise you and cause you to rethink your perceptions. That happened right away with the first game of the season when the Dallas Cowboys knocked off the defending Super Bowl champion New York Giants. No one saw that coming. A few more surprises in week 1: the New York Jets putting up 48 points against the Buffalo Bills; RGIII leading the Redskins to victory over the Saints and how about the Eagles' struggles against the Browns?

The various surprises and upsets are reflected in this week's NFL Power Rankings. To better illustrate those changes, I've made some updates to the tables. Now instead of containing both the Average and Standard Deviation for each group, I only show the Average Ranking column or the Standard Deviation column in the tables for which I'm discussing. In their place, I've added a "Change since Last Week" column that illustrates which way teams are moving from week to week. I think this will end up making things clearer and more fun to follow.


Notable Quotes

Fox

Philip Rivers was solid in his 2012 debut, throwing for 231 yards and a touchdown. Most importantly, he didn’t have any turnovers. If he can protect the ball, this team can once again compete for the division title. Getting RB Ryan Mathews back will help.

CBS

They didn't do a lot on offense, but they have to be excited about their defensive front. There are some talented young players there.

SBNation

San Diego has gone from 13 wins to nine wins to eight wins in the last three seasons. An ugly win on Monday night is a good start.

Reddit

The Chargers started the season by going 1-5 in the red zone. The Defense was better than it has been in years, and special teams pounced on a weakened long snapper situation. Great kicking won this game in both scoring points and limiting field position. Stepping up the run game and finishing in the red zone are glaring issues that need to be resolved.


Division Averages

Division Avg Ranking
NFC East 10.8594
NFC North 13.6875
NFC South 15.6094
AFC North 15.9688
AFC East 17.6094
AFC West 18.0781
NFC West 18.8750
AFC South 21.3125

Stock Rising

Team Week 1 Average Week 2 Average Difference
WAS 23.357 15.846 7.511
DAL 14.571 9.077 5.494
TB 25.500 20.385 5.115
NYJ 20.571 15.846 4.725
ARI 25.643 22.000 3.643

Stock Falling

Team Week 1 Average Week 2 Average Difference
BUF 18.429 24.385 -5.956
NYG 2.857 8.462 -5.605
NO 7.571 12.846 -5.275
GB 1.500 5.462 -3.962
SEA 19.429 23.385 -3.956

Hit the jump to see all the rankings and the changes I've made to the tables. Sound off in the comments if you like or dislike the changes, or know of ways we can improve the rankings!

Subjective Average

Subjective
ESPN Fox CBS USA Today Sports Illustrated ProFootballTalk NFL.com SportingNews Pro Football Weekly National Football Post SB Nation Reddit Associated Press Average Change since last period
Patriots 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 1 1 2 2 1 1.385 1.186 Rising
49ers 2 2 4 2 2 2 1 1 2 2 3 1 2 2.000 3.500 Rising
Ravens 3 3 5 3 3 3 4 2 5 3 1 3 3 3.154 2.846 Rising
Texans 4 4 2 5 4 4 3 4 3 5 4 4 4 3.846 1.368 Rising
Packers 5 7 7 4 5 5 8 7 4 4 5 5 5 5.462 -3.962 Falling
Falcons 6 5 3 7 6 11 6 6 6 7 10 6 7 6.615 3.099 Rising
Broncos 9 11 9 13 8 6 5 5 9 13 7 8 6 8.385 3.615 Rising
Giants 7 9 13 6 9 7 10 8 8 6 6 11 10 8.462 -5.605 Falling
Bears 8 8 10 9 13 14 7 9 7 9 9 7 8 9.077 2.137 Rising
Cowboys 10 6 6 10 7 10 9 10 10 10 12 9 9 9.077 5.494 Rising
Eagles 12 12 8 8 14 8 11 12 12 8 13 17 12 11.308 -3.308 Falling
Steelers 11 13 11 14 10 9 12 11 11 14 8 12 11 11.308 -2.808 Falling
Saints 16 10 12 11 12 15 14 14 13 11 11 14 14 12.846 -5.275 Falling
Lions 13 15 15 12 16 12 13 13 14 12 14 10 13 13.231 -1.017 Falling
Redskins 15 18 19 17 11 13 15 17 16 17 16 16 16 15.846 7.511 Rising
Jets 17 17 17 16 15 16 16 18 15 16 15 13 15 15.846 4.725 Rising
Chargers 14 20 16 15 17 18 17 16 17 15 17 15 17 16.462 1.109 Rising
Bengals 18 14 14 19 19 24 19 15 18 19 18 19 18 18.000 -3.500 Falling
Buccaneers 21 19 20 24 20 23 18 19 21 24 19 18 19 20.385 5.115 Rising
Chiefs 19 16 24 21 22 17 20 25 19 21 25 22 21 20.923 -3.066 Falling
Panthers 23 21 26 18 21 19 24 20 22 18 23 21 22 21.385 -3.242 Falling
Cardinals 20 27 18 23 26 20 21 21 20 23 27 20 20 22.000 3.643 Rising
Seahawks 26 28 22 20 18 26 23 23 24 20 26 24 24 23.385 -3.956 Falling
Titans 22 22 25 22 27 22 25 22 25 22 22 27 23 23.539 -2.825 Falling
Bills 24 23 21 25 25 27 27 24 23 25 20 26 27 24.385 -5.956 Falling
Vikings 28 25 27 27 24 25 26 26 27 27 24 25 26 25.923 2.720 Rising
Raiders 25 29 23 28 30 21 22 32 26 28 28 23 25 26.154 -1.011 Falling
Rams 27 26 29 26 23 30 29 28 30 26 29 28 28 27.615 1.242 Rising
Jaguars 29 30 28 30 28 29 28 27 28 30 30 30 29 28.923 -0.423 Falling
Colts 32 24 30 32 29 28 30 29 32 32 21 29 31 29.154 -1.654 Falling
Dolphins 30 31 31 29 32 31 32 30 31 29 32 32 32 30.923 -1.923 Falling
Browns 31 32 32 31 31 32 31 31 29 31 31 31 30 31.000 0.214 Rising

Observations:

  • See the pretty little arrows now? Neat, right?
  • The Chargers beat the Raiders. People like to say it was expected; Vegas disagrees as the Oakland was the favorite in the game. So technically the Chargers pulled off the upset. Perfect reasoning for Brian Billick to drop the Chargers 3 spots this week.
  • Nevertheless, the Chargers still managed to gain about a full spot in the rankings this week (on average).
  • The Jets and Redskins have leapfrogged the Chargers in positioning. I can't say I can argue that yet.
  • The Patriots have supplanted the Packers as the subjective top team this week.

Subjective Standard Deviation

Subjective
ESPN Fox CBS USA Today Sports Illustrated ProFootballTalk NFL.com SportingNews Pro Football Weekly National Football Post SB Nation Reddit Associated Press Standard Deviation Change since last period
Patriots 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 1 1 2 2 1 0.625 0.279 Rising
Texans 4 4 2 5 4 4 3 4 3 5 4 4 4 0.769 0.437 Rising
Browns 31 32 32 31 31 32 31 31 29 31 31 31 30 0.785 0.735 Rising
49ers 2 2 4 2 2 2 1 1 2 2 3 1 2 0.785 1.568 Rising
Jaguars 29 30 28 30 28 29 28 27 28 30 30 30 29 0.997 1.474 Rising
Ravens 3 3 5 3 3 3 4 2 5 3 1 3 3 1.026 1.044 Rising
Dolphins 30 31 31 29 32 31 32 30 31 29 32 32 32 1.071 1.100 Rising
Vikings 28 25 27 27 24 25 26 26 27 27 24 25 26 1.207 -0.164 Falling
Jets 17 17 17 16 15 16 16 18 15 16 15 13 15 1.231 0.759 Rising
Packers 5 7 7 4 5 5 8 7 4 4 5 5 5 1.278 -0.296 Falling
Chargers 14 20 16 15 17 18 17 16 17 15 17 15 17 1.500 0.595 Rising
Lions 13 15 15 12 16 12 13 13 14 12 14 10 13 1.527 0.617 Rising
Steelers 11 13 11 14 10 9 12 11 11 14 8 12 11 1.682 0.546 Rising
Cowboys 10 6 6 10 7 10 9 10 10 10 12 9 9 1.685 -0.007 Falling
Saints 16 10 12 11 12 15 14 14 13 11 11 14 14 1.747 0.313 Rising
Rams 27 26 29 26 23 30 29 28 30 26 29 28 28 1.903 -0.496 Falling
Titans 22 22 25 22 27 22 25 22 25 22 22 27 23 1.906 -0.573 Falling
Falcons 6 5 3 7 6 11 6 6 6 7 10 6 7 1.943 -0.075 Falling
Redskins 15 18 19 17 11 13 15 17 16 17 16 16 16 1.994 -0.364 Falling
Buccaneers 21 19 20 24 20 23 18 19 21 24 19 18 19 2.021 0.450 Rising
Giants 7 9 13 6 9 7 10 8 8 6 6 11 10 2.061 -0.420 Falling
Bears 8 8 10 9 13 14 7 9 7 9 9 7 8 2.093 -0.196 Falling
Bills 24 23 21 25 25 27 27 24 23 25 20 26 27 2.132 0.063 Rising
Panthers 23 21 26 18 21 19 24 20 22 18 23 21 22 2.237 0.432 Rising
Bengals 18 14 14 19 19 24 19 15 18 19 18 19 18 2.512 0.207 Rising
Broncos 9 11 9 13 8 6 5 5 9 13 7 8 6 2.588 -0.588 Falling
Eagles 12 12 8 8 14 8 11 12 12 8 13 17 12 2.613 0.266 Rising
Chiefs 19 16 24 21 22 17 20 25 19 21 25 22 21 2.674 0.508 Rising
Seahawks 26 28 22 20 18 26 23 23 24 20 26 24 24 2.733 0.260 Rising
Cardinals 20 27 18 23 26 20 21 21 20 23 27 20 20 2.856 0.182 Rising
Colts 32 24 30 32 29 28 30 29 32 32 21 29 31 3.183 -0.004 Falling
Raiders 25 29 23 28 30 21 22 32 26 28 28 23 25 3.207 -0.592 Falling

Observations:

  • With the new column, it's easier to see which teams are starting to shake things up and which teams are settling into their respective positions.
  • It seems the pundits feel they know where Vikings should be as they've moved up 2 spots in the rankings, but their ranking consistency improved.
  • The Chargers are one of the more consistently-ranked teams, but their Standard Deviation went up this week, which indicates they're on the move (upwards I hope)
  • Amusingly, the Raiders are the least consistently-ranked team, but they actually became more consistently-ranked than they were last week
  • The Chiefs are on the move! Unfortunately for their fanbase, it's downwards

Objective Average

Objective
Football Outsiders Team Rankings Sagarin Average Change since last period
Patriots 1 2 1 1.333 -0.333 Falling
Ravens 5 5 2 4.000 2.500 Rising
Cowboys 12 1 5 6.000 6.500 Rising
Eagles 11 6 6 7.667 0.333 Rising
49ers 18 3 3 8.000 7.500 Rising
Packers 3 15 7 8.333 -6.333 Falling
Texans 10 12 4 8.667 2.333 Rising
Falcons 2 9 16 9.000 0.500 Rising
Jets 6 11 12 9.667 0.833 Rising
Bears 4 18 9 10.333 -0.333 Falling
Giants 14 4 14 10.667 -2.667 Falling
Broncos 7 13 13 11.000 5.000 Rising
Chargers 19 10 8 12.333 2.167 Rising
Steelers 9 19 10 12.667 -9.167 Falling
Saints 8 16 15 13.000 -8.000 Falling
Redskins 22 8 11 13.667 6.333 Rising
Lions 16 17 23 18.667 1.333 Rising
Cardinals 30 7 20 19.000 9.000 Rising
Seahawks 26 14 18 19.333 2.167 Rising
Titans 21 23 17 20.333 -5.833 Falling
Buccaneers 15 24 26 21.667 4.333 Rising
Vikings 25 22 19 22.000 1.500 Rising
Bengals 24 21 24 23.000 -3.000 Falling
Panthers 13 29 30 24.000 -5.500 Falling
Chiefs 17 25 31 24.333 -1.333 Falling
Dolphins 28 20 27 25.000 -1.000 Falling
Bills 20 28 28 25.333 -4.833 Falling
Browns 31 26 21 26.000 1.500 Rising
Raiders 23 27 29 26.333 -0.333 Falling
Jaguars 27 31 25 27.667 -0.167 Falling
Colts 29 32 22 27.667 -5.667 Falling
Rams 32 30 32 31.333 0.667 Rising

Observations:

  • With so few datapoints, it's kind of hard to draw any concrete observations using objective rankings. We'll try anyway ...
  • The Patriots are doing everything right so far, 1/16th of the way through the season.
  • As are the Ravens and Cowboys
  • Interestingly, the Eagles moved slightly up in the objective rankings even though Vick had a bad day

Objective Standard Deviation

Objective
Football Outsiders Team Rankings Sagarin Standard Deviation Change since last period
Patriots 1 2 1 0.471 -0.471 Falling
Rams 32 30 32 0.943 -0.943 Falling
Ravens 5 5 2 1.414 -0.914 Falling
Bengals 24 21 24 1.414 0.586 Rising
Eagles 11 6 6 2.357 1.643 Rising
Vikings 25 22 19 2.450 3.050 Rising
Titans 21 23 17 2.494 0.006 Rising
Jaguars 27 31 25 2.494 -0.994 Falling
Raiders 23 27 29 2.494 -0.494 Falling
Jets 6 11 12 2.625 -0.125 Falling
Broncos 7 13 13 2.828 2.172 Rising
Lions 16 17 23 3.091 -2.091 Falling
Texans 10 12 4 3.399 -1.399 Falling
Saints 8 16 15 3.559 -3.559 Falling
Dolphins 28 20 27 3.559 -2.559 Falling
Bills 20 28 28 3.771 0.729 Rising
Browns 31 26 21 4.083 -0.583 Falling
Colts 29 32 22 4.190 0.810 Rising
Steelers 9 19 10 4.497 -3.997 Falling
Cowboys 12 1 5 4.546 -3.046 Falling
Giants 14 4 14 4.714 -3.714 Falling
Chargers 19 10 8 4.784 -0.284 Falling
Buccaneers 15 24 26 4.784 -0.784 Falling
Seahawks 26 14 18 4.989 1.511 Rising
Packers 3 15 7 4.989 -4.989 Falling
Falcons 2 9 16 5.716 0.784 Rising
Chiefs 17 25 31 5.735 2.265 Rising
Bears 4 18 9 5.793 -1.793 Falling
Redskins 22 8 11 6.019 -6.019 Falling
49ers 18 3 3 7.071 0.429 Rising
Panthers 13 29 30 7.789 0.711 Rising
Cardinals 30 7 20 9.416 -7.416 Falling

Observations:

  • Again, with so few data points, Standard Deviation is expected to be all over the place. And it is. Ranging from 0.471 to 9.416 (!!)
  • Here's what's crazy: the Arizona Cardinals have the highest swing in rankings, yet it's improved from last week.
  • Chargers are slightly more consistently-ranked this week, though it's still a bit inconsistent.
  • A bit of this inconsistency can probably be blamed on Football Outsiders. Right now their DAVE rankings use 90% pre-season projections and 10% VOA; and their VOA isn't defensively-adjusted. So really their rankings might be a little off until week 4ish.

Overall Average

Subj vs Obj
Subjective Average Objective Average Average Change since last period
Patriots 1.385 1.333 1.359 0.427 Rising
Ravens 3.154 4.000 3.577 2.673 Rising
49ers 2.000 8.000 5.000 5.500 Rising
Texans 3.846 8.667 6.256 1.851 Rising
Packers 5.462 8.333 6.897 -5.147 Falling
Cowboys 9.077 6.000 7.538 5.998 Rising
Falcons 6.615 9.000 7.808 1.799 Rising
Eagles 11.308 7.667 9.487 -1.487 Falling
Giants 8.462 10.667 9.564 -4.135 Falling
Broncos 8.385 11.000 9.692 4.308 Rising
Bears 9.077 10.333 9.705 0.902 Rising
Steelers 11.308 12.667 11.987 -5.987 Falling
Jets 15.846 9.667 12.756 2.780 Rising
Saints 12.846 13.000 12.923 -6.637 Falling
Chargers 16.462 12.333 14.397 1.639 Rising
Redskins 15.846 13.667 14.756 6.923 Rising
Lions 13.231 18.667 15.949 0.158 Rising
Bengals 18.000 23.000 20.500 -3.250 Falling
Cardinals 22.000 19.000 20.500 6.321 Rising
Buccaneers 20.385 21.667 21.026 4.724 Rising
Seahawks 23.385 19.333 21.359 -0.895 Falling
Titans 23.539 20.333 21.936 -4.329 Falling
Chiefs 20.923 24.333 22.628 -2.199 Falling
Panthers 21.385 24.000 22.692 -4.371 Falling
Vikings 25.923 22.000 23.962 2.109 Rising
Bills 24.385 25.333 24.859 -5.395 Falling
Raiders 26.154 26.333 26.244 -0.673 Falling
Dolphins 30.923 25.000 27.962 -1.462 Falling
Jaguars 28.923 27.667 28.295 -0.295 Falling
Colts 29.154 27.667 28.410 -3.660 Falling
Browns 31.000 26.000 28.500 0.857 Rising
Rams 27.615 31.333 29.474 0.955 Rising

Observations:

  • Poor Packers, dropping over 5 spots overall.
  • Chargers at least now are in the top-50% of the league instead of the bottom 50%.
  • I know the Titans were blown out by the Patriots, but the Patriots are really good this year, but I guess they played rather poorly anyway.
  • Guess the optimism in Indianapolis has faded away already

Overall Standard Deviation

Subj vs Obj
Subjective Average Objective Average Standard Deviation Change since last period
Patriots 1.385 1.333 0.600 0.392 Rising
Ravens 3.154 4.000 1.158 0.794 Rising
Jaguars 28.923 27.667 1.488 0.907 Rising
Vikings 25.923 22.000 2.157 0.604 Rising
Saints 12.846 13.000 2.204 -0.097 Falling
Rams 27.615 31.333 2.284 -0.607 Falling
Titans 23.539 20.333 2.384 0.177 Rising
Texans 3.846 8.667 2.488 -0.157 Falling
Steelers 11.308 12.667 2.524 0.142 Rising
Bills 24.385 25.333 2.549 0.137 Rising
Packers 5.462 8.333 2.693 -1.760 Falling
Browns 31.000 26.000 2.727 -0.477 Falling
Cowboys 9.077 6.000 2.761 -0.968 Falling
Buccaneers 20.385 21.667 2.804 -0.089 Falling
Broncos 8.385 11.000 2.826 0.068 Rising
Lions 13.231 18.667 2.861 0.422 Rising
Jets 15.846 9.667 2.888 1.029 Rising
Giants 8.462 10.667 2.891 -0.573 Falling
Eagles 11.308 7.667 2.934 0.107 Rising
Dolphins 30.923 25.000 2.942 -0.299 Falling
Chargers 16.462 12.333 2.952 -0.231 Falling
Bengals 18.000 23.000 3.051 0.155 Rising
Raiders 26.154 26.333 3.087 -0.525 Falling
Falcons 6.615 9.000 3.172 -0.284 Falling
Bears 9.077 10.333 3.177 -0.873 Falling
Redskins 15.846 13.667 3.278 -1.392 Falling
Colts 29.154 27.667 3.444 0.465 Rising
Seahawks 23.385 19.333 3.638 0.048 Rising
Chiefs 20.923 24.333 3.708 0.736 Rising
49ers 2.000 8.000 3.919 0.857 Rising
Panthers 21.385 24.000 4.060 -0.151 Falling
Cardinals 22.000 19.000 4.962 -1.932 Falling

Observations:

  • Again, Cardinals are the least consistently-ranked team; though their Standard Deviation dropped here too.
  • The Chargers ranking consistency is bottom-third, so there isn't much of a consensus yet, but the consensus is improving

Difference in Averages

Subj vs Obj
Subjective Average Objective Average Standard Deviation Change since last period
49ers 2.000 8.000 6.000 4.000 Rising
Lions 13.231 18.667 5.436 2.350 Rising
Bengals 18.000 23.000 5.000 0.500 Rising
Texans 3.846 8.667 4.821 0.965 Rising
Rams 27.615 31.333 3.718 -0.575 Falling
Chiefs 20.923 24.333 3.410 1.733 Rising
Packers 5.462 8.333 2.872 -2.372 Falling
Broncos 8.385 11.000 2.615 1.385 Rising
Panthers 21.385 24.000 2.615 -2.258 Falling
Falcons 6.615 9.000 2.385 -2.599 Falling
Giants 8.462 10.667 2.205 2.938 Rising
Steelers 11.308 12.667 1.359 -6.359 Falling
Buccaneers 20.385 21.667 1.282 -0.782 Falling
Bears 9.077 10.333 1.256 -2.470 Falling
Bills 24.385 25.333 0.949 1.122 Rising
Ravens 3.154 4.000 0.846 -0.346 Falling
Raiders 26.154 26.333 0.180 0.677 Rising
Saints 12.846 13.000 0.154 -2.725 Falling
Patriots 1.385 1.333 -0.051 -1.520 Falling
Jaguars 28.923 27.667 -1.256 0.256 Rising
Colts 29.154 27.667 -1.487 -4.013 Falling
Redskins 15.846 13.667 -2.180 -1.177 Falling
Cardinals 22.000 19.000 -3.000 5.357 Rising
Cowboys 9.077 6.000 -3.077 1.006 Rising
Titans 23.539 20.333 -3.205 -3.009 Falling
Eagles 11.308 7.667 -3.641 3.641 Rising
Vikings 25.923 22.000 -3.923 -1.220 Falling
Seahawks 23.385 19.333 -4.051 6.122 Rising
Chargers 16.462 12.333 -4.128 1.057 Rising
Browns 31.000 26.000 -5.000 1.286 Rising
Dolphins 30.923 25.000 -5.923 0.923 Rising
Jets 15.846 9.667 -6.180 -3.891 Falling

Observations:

  • This one is always fun to look at. Typically, the objective rankings react slower to a team's performance than the subjective averages. On the flipside, sometimes the subjective averages can be a bit knee-jerk since it's, well, subjective. But overall, this can be a good barometer of where a team is headed.
  • Are the 49ers really better than the stats tell us? Or are appearances deceiving? Same question for the Lions, Bengals and Texans, all of whom are subjectively ranked higher than their objective rankings indicate. Also, the disparity between the rankings grew for those teams.
  • Based on these differences, no one should have been that surprised by the Jets' performance this past weekend. Also, everyone seems to be quick to jump all over the Dolphins, Browns and Chargers; but stats indicate they may be better than people perceive.
  • Wow, the Saints' rankings corrected themselves quite well after just one game.

Sources

SB Nation Featured Video

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