Playbook Confidential: Fun with Small Sample Size

Somebody get this guy some calcium pills and a gallon of milk.

In the first half of the Cowboys game, the 1st team ran 25 scoreless plays, with a 50/50 run/pass split on first down, and very little running on other downs. They moved the ball a total of 121 yards for a healthy (if unspectacular) 4.9 yards per snap, and then coughed the ball up twice. Does this remind anyone else of the 2011 offensive theme? We also saw Ronnie Brown get 80% of the starter's playing time over Curtis Brinkley. In 2011, Norv showed us exactly how he intended to split up playing time between Ryan Mathews and Mike Tolbert during the pre-season, so this is probably how he's going to survive the Mathews-less beginning to this season. Here's the link to the log for the game. I'm going to keep using the same file all season so the link should never change.

Down Run Pass Total
1 6 6 12
2 1 8 9
3 1 3 4
Total 8 17 25

There were a few small sample quirks that will be fun to pay attention to for the remainder of the pre-season while we wait for the next big name broken bone. The majority of the running plays (4 of 8 runs) came from balanced WR formations, even though balanced WR formations were not in heavy use (18 of 25 plays had unbalanced formations). If we change the perspective to the tight end balance, most of the runs (5 of 8 runs) came with a tight end on the right next to Clary. Keep an eye out next week for balanced formations with a tight end on the right, and amaze your friends by guaranteeing a run. If you're wrong, just tell them Norv is going vanilla for the pre-season. I wanted to look at runs towards the heavy side vs runs to the weak side, but the sample size was just too small for even toungue in cheek conclusions.

There was discussion on BFTB yesterday about how much help Mike Harris had, the answer is that Clary and Harris had about the same amount of help:

Tight End Heavy Side
Left 9
Balanced 5
Right 11

As JKvandal pointed out, the fullback was not in heavy use, but 3 WR was. We can see this in the formation grouping numbers. 11 Personnel almost always gets used in Shotgun in this offense. With larger samples and regular season game planning, expect to see Ace (single back, QB under center) take a bite out of Shotgun going forward.

Formation
Jumbo 2
Ace 3
I 4
Shotgun 16

On the other hand, the top three plays (longest gains) of the half came from Shotgun 11, and BFTB has long chronicled the overall superior efficiency of 3WRs. Maybe Norv is planning to pivot to a shotgun, pass whacky offense this year.

RunningBack Personnel Formation Heavy Call (LRMP) Carrier/Rec Result
Brown 11 Shotgun Spread R R P Floyd 11
Brown 11 Shotgun Spread R B P Floyd 16
Brown 11 Shotgun Spread R B P R Brown 27
X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior users will need to choose a permanent username, along with a new password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

I already have a Vox Media account!

Verify Vox Media account

Please login to your Vox Media account. This account will be linked to your previously existing Eater account.

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior MT authors will need to choose a new username and password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join Bolts From The Blue

You must be a member of Bolts From The Blue to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Bolts From The Blue. You should read them.

Join Bolts From The Blue

You must be a member of Bolts From The Blue to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Bolts From The Blue. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9341_tracker