Will the San Diego Chargers Trade Up or Down on Draft Day?

Recently there has been some talk about trading up or down in the first round of this years draft. Most of that talk revolves around two tweets by Kevin Acee and the perceived need to draft one of the top two safety prospects. One of those safeties, Alabama's Mark Barron, is rumored to require a higher pick that the Chargers current 18th overall selection. The other, Notre Dame's Harrison Smith, is thought to be valued lower than that 18th pick. Here's the two aforementioned tweets:

Let's look at what the Chargers would be required to give up in order to make a move up in the draft. After the jump, we can look at some scenarios where the Chargers could find partners that would allow them to trade down. In order to imagine these scenarios, you need to be familiar with the draft pick value chart. Every team is aware of the values on this chart and for the most trades usually work out so that the values match it (or are close enough). Using that chart, the Chargers 1st round pick is worth 900 points. If you know that, then the following table should start to make sense:

Scenario Value Added 1st Rd Pick
Acquired
Total Value
Use 2nd rd pick 410 10th
1300
Use 3rd rd pick 200 14th 1100
Use 4th rd pick 74 17th 950
Use 2nd + 3rd rd picks 610 7th 1500
Use 2nd + 4th rd picks 484 9th 1350
Use 3rd + 4th rd picks 274 13th 1150
Use 2nd + 3rd +
4th + 5th rd picks
715.8 6th 1600

Trading down is a little more complicated since you have more than one pick that originally belonged to the team being traded with. Each team has it's own unique combination of picks taken into account. You can't just say, "Let's trade down and pick up a 2nd round pick". For example: To get the best 1st round pick in return in this type of trade requires the lowest possible 2nd round pick. The 63rd pick is the last 2nd round pick in the 2012 draft and is worth 276 points and is owned by the New York Giants. The Chargers pick is worth 900 points and 900 - 276 is 624. The pick worth around that many point (620) is the 30th piick and is owned by the 49ers. That's not going to work. The Giants have pick 32 worth 590 points meaning the Chargers would leave 34 points on the table. Finding the right match takes careful planning.

Here's some scenarios that potentially could work:

Scenario Total Received Value Trade Summary
Bears 19th + 150th 906.4 Down 1 pick + 5th rd pick
Titans 20th + 115th 914 Down 2 picks + 4th rd pick
Bengals 21st + 83rd 975 Down 3 picks + 3rd round pick
Bengals 21st + 116th + 167th + 191st 903.6 Down 3 picks + 4th + 5th + 6th
Browns 22nd + 37th - Chargers 49th 900 Down 4 picks + Up 12 picks in 2nd
Browns 22nd + 100th + 160th 908.4 Down 4 picks + 4th + 5th
Browns 22nd + 118th + 139th + 160th 902.9 Down 4 picks + 4th + 2 5ths
Lions 23rd + 85th - Chargers 183rd 905.8 Down 5 picks + 3rd - 6th
Steelers 24th + 56th + 159th - Chargers 78th 908.8 Down 6 picks + 2nd + 5th - 3rd
Steelers 24th + 56th + 119th - Chargers 78th - 149th 904.2 Down 6 picks + 2nd + 4th - 3rd - 5th
Steelers 24th + 86th 900 Down 6 picks + 3rd
Broncos 25th + 57th + 120th - Chargers 78th 904 Down 7 picks + 2nd + 5th - 3rd
Broncos 25th + 108th + 120th + 137th + 188th 906.7 Down 7 picks + 2 4ths + 5th + 6th
Broncos 25th + 87th + 108th - Chargers 149th - Chargers 183rd 902 Down 7 picks + 3rd + 4th - 5th - 6th
Texans 26th + Texans 76th 910 Down 8 picks + 3rd
Texans 26th + 58th + 121st + 161st - Chargers 78th 900 Down 8 picks + 2nd + 4th + 5th - 3rd
Patriots 27th + 62nd + 126th - Chargers 110th - 149th 904.2 Down 9 picks + 2nd + Down 15 picks in 4th - 5th
Patriots 27th + 48th - Chargers 78th 900 Down 9 picks + 2nd - 3rd
Patriots 27th + 31st + 93rd - Chargers 49th - 110th - 183rd - 226th 902 Down 9 picks + 1st + 3rd - 2nd - 4th - 5th - 7th
Packers 28th + 59th + 224th - Chargers 110th 899 Down 10 picks + 2nd + 7th - Chargers 4th
Ravens 29th + 60th + 198th - Chargers 149th - 183rd 902.2 Down 11 picks + 2nd + Down 15 in 6th - 5th
49ers 30th + 61st + 199th - Chargers 183rd - 226th 902.8 Down 12 picks + 2nd + Down 16 in 6th - 7th
Patriots 31st + 62nd + 126th - Chargers 149th 898.2 Down 13 picks + 2nd + 4th - 5th
Giants 32nd + 63rd + 127th + 201st - Chargers 183rd 903.8 Down 14 picks + 2nd + 4th + Down 18 picks in 6th
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