San Diego Chargers: Twitter Mailbag February 7th, 2012

by John Gennaro on Feb 7, 2012 11:37 AM PST in San Diego Chargers Mailbag

Next question. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images)

In case you aren't on Twitter or were busy this morning, I told people to tweet their questions at me and I'd answer them on the site today. Considering the huge response I got, and lots of good questions to boot, this might have to be a regular thing. To the questions....

@BFTB_Chargers best guess at first three picks in the draft?
— Bryan Utu (@Utu3) February 7, 2012

A nearly impossible question this year because, opposite from last season, free agency has been restored to its normal schedule and will be before the NFL Draft. We know the Chargers will be looking for a pass-rusher and an offensive lineman. We know they could use some help/depth at WR, TE, RB/FB and Safety as well.

I think the Chargers use their first-round pick on an offensive lineman of some sort. Either a Guard/Center for whatever hole is left by Kris Dielman (who might retire) and Nick Hardwick (who is currently a FA with leverage), or a Tackle that would let them move Jeromey Clary to Guard. After that, I'd say they go after a Wide Receiver and a Defensive Lineman.

@BFTB_Chargers I am admittedly draft stupid, but with all the emphasis on Pass Rushers, wasn't our big weakness OL depth this year?
— DanielNava (@DanielNava) February 7, 2012

Yes and no. The depth was actually good enough that the Chargers were usually down 60% of their starters and the only backup that couldn't hold his own was Brandyn Dombrowski. However, with Hardwick a FA, Marcus McNeill recovering from another neck injury and Dielman's future uncertain, OL depth becomes an issue again.

The emphasis on pass-rushers is simple, though. Pass-rushers are a cure-all. A dominant pass-rusher can make up for a bad secondary. Hell, he can make up for a bad offense (see: Von Miller). Pair him with a good secondary or a good offense, and you have a 14-2 season or a run to the AFC Championship Game. If you didn't get that reference, the Chargers need to find someone to fill Shawne Merriman's shoes.

@BFTB_Chargers Does the Bolts FO stick to their normal offseason routine or do you expect some "splashes" be it FA signings, cuts,or trades?
— Daniel Britton (@TheZappaz) February 7, 2012

I expect a splash. A.J. Smith is not stupid. He knows that building for the future, while still important, is not as important as keeping his job. A winning season and a playoff win or two would go a long way towards accomplishing the latter, and he might be willing to mortgage a tiny bit of the future to get it.

@BFTB_Chargers: is Gaither coming back next season?
— scott (@ChargerMetal) February 7, 2012

Yes. He'll probably start the season as the backup OT, which makes him a giant upgrade over Dombrowski.

@BFTB_Chargers: if you could add any upcoming free agent, money aside, who would you add and why?
— scott (@ChargerMetal) February 7, 2012

Based on need, Mario Williams. As mentioned earlier, a dominant pass-rusher can carry a team on his back. In his first season as a 3-4 OLB, Williams was on pace for 16 sacks last season. That's dominant. He's also only 27 years old, so he could be worth whatever he costs at the end of a long-term deal.

Williams might not be Julius Peppers, but he has that potential and he's younger. Whoever lands Williams is going to immediately boost their pass-rush significantly, and he's not bad against the run either. If anyone is going to step in and be the new Merriman from Day 1, Williams is the best candidate.

@BFTB_Chargers Chance that Norv gets let go mid-season, if Bolts go through mid-season struggle again?
— Albert Ma (@albear) February 7, 2012

Are we talking 6 consecutive losses again? Because that was somewhat unprecedented for Norv. If he can pull that one off again, then it's possible.

I know everyone hates Norv and wants to fire him ASAP. There are plenty of good reasons not to fire him mid-season though....

1. He runs the entire offense by himself, although that may be less true with Steve Fairchild here (like it was less true when Rob Chudzinski was here). Getting rid of him means starting from scratch, going back to step one, in the middle of the season. So you're essentially eliminating your chances of winning for the rest of the year because.....yeah, I know know either.

2. If there was a hot young assistant or coordinator on the team and you wanted to "test him out" as the head guy, then maybe you try it. Who would that be on the Chargers? I guess it depends on their opinion of Pagano mid-season, but if the team is losing 6 straight I can't imagine that it will be good.

3. When you make someone an Interim Head Coach, it's awfully hard to them demote him after that. So, even if they hate Norv by mid-season, they stand a better chance at retaining a coordinator they like (like Pagano) the following year if they just let Turner play the year out. Again, if there's less of a chance to win games by firing the guy, why would you do it mid-season?

@BFTB_Chargers what do you think the best course of action is for the secondary.. Jammer to safety? Cason? Lots left to figure out.
— Chris Garcia (@sportsbrain) February 7, 2012

I think the situation needs some decisive action, honestly. If they're ready to call Darrell Stuckey their starting Safety, then do it. If not, they can't keep teasing people with prospects of Quentin Jammer playing there sometime in the future. Move him now (he can play lots of man, blitz a lot and even play nickel CB in one of those "3 Safeties" formations...so not always a Safety), name Antoine Cason and Marcus Gilchrist as starters and work from there. If the CBs don't play well, we can draft more or sign more later. The only reason to move Jammer back is if he plays horribly.

I just think the indecision and the waiting aspect of it is hurting everyone, including Jammer. Let him get on with the next part of his career instead of trying to figure out if that starts now or later.

@BFTB_Chargers Pass rusher in draft or free agency, or both? Same question in regards to the SS position.
— Patrick Green (@SDfan4life) February 7, 2012

I sort of answered both of these in terms of my opinion. I'd go after a pass rusher in free agency and I'd move Jammer to SS.

We already have our "project" pass-rushers in Antwan Barnes and Larry English (assuming he's back). Adding a third one to the mix with Shaun Phillips seems like a step sideways instead of forward. Adding an accomplished pass-rusher like Mario Williams, who makes Phillips the 2nd best pass-rusher on the team, seems like a big step forward for a defense that needs it.

I don't think I'd be thrilled with an early SS draft pick just because Darrell Stuckey hasn't been bad when he's been out there. Now, if the team could sign someone like Tyvon Branch away from the Raiders, I'd be okay with that. However, I don't think that's a high priority with other SS options on the team (Jammer, Stuckey, Gilchrist, Eric Weddle).

@BFTB_Chargers Top 5 targets in FA (assuming they don't re-sign with current teams)?
— Ryan Brown (@ryanbrown77) February 7, 2012

1. Mario Williams
2. Cliff Avril
3. Carl Nicks
4. Robert Mathis
5. Michael Bush

@BFTB_Chargers 0-100% What % of the decision to fire Scott Kaplan can directly be attributed to your hatred for the show? Don't be modest.
— LobShots Sports (@LobShots) February 7, 2012

20%, if I'm not being modest.

@BFTB_Chargers when will the hat be eaten...
— Nick Shepherd (@NickNRickShep) February 7, 2012

Sometime before the draft. Perhaps the weekend right before.

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Comments

one thing that struck me about the Giant's DL

is that they keep adding to it almost every year. They are relentless. After their last SB they lost Strahan, but still has Osi and Tuck. Even with that very solid core, they added Canty as a big time FA and JPP as a 1st round draft choice. That is what needs to be done if we want to have a consistently good pass rush. Address it every year by adding pieces. Don’t be satisfied with Merriman and Phillips and scrubs, but add talent every year, either through the draft or FA.

by Stephen (shaynes41) on Feb 7, 2012 12:18 PM PST reply actions

I like this plan in theory...

…but it assumes that DL is a team’s highest priority. (There’s certainly a strong argument to be made that it is.) But such an overwhelming focus on one position will inevitably cause sacrifices at other positions. Such is the yin to the yang.

by Andy (allfield) on Feb 7, 2012 1:53 PM PST up reply actions

true

but it is a critical position with a short career span and a high injury rate, so should get more attention than CB, for instance, where turnover should be less.

by Stephen (shaynes41) on Feb 7, 2012 2:07 PM PST up reply actions

Another interesting principle

if I was a stat person in the NFL would be the correlation of round drafted vs. effectiveness. For example, on average, how many 1st round drafted defensive linemen become solid players as opposed to a percentage of 1st round QBs, with adding some adjusting factors for number of their position on the field, risk of injury for that position, schools, etc etc.

What you would then come up with is how effective scouting or prior experience would play into the ability to discern NFL competence at that level for that position, and one could then choose to draft a player at a position with more or less risk.

Anyways, what started this thought process was an idea of “luck” in the Giants picking up a player like Victor Cruz out of nowhere, and maybe that some type of players are more apt to slip through the system at certain positions than others. But who knows, it could all be a wash in the end.

Not changing this signature until John Gennaro eats his hat.
Nick Diaz was robbed. UFC 143.

by Falawful on Feb 7, 2012 2:56 PM PST up reply actions

I think you just invented Moneyball.

by Orz on Feb 7, 2012 2:57 PM PST up reply actions 2 recs

Ewww, baseball.

But yeah, I’m sure these sort of principles are applied throughout the sports world and betters and whatnot. It’s just a matter of patience, programming, and payoff.

Not changing this signature until John Gennaro eats his hat.
Nick Diaz was robbed. UFC 143.

by Falawful on Feb 7, 2012 3:07 PM PST up reply actions

That would make sense

If an equal distribution of talent lead to the highest amount of effectiveness. I don’t think it does. I think the pass rush is getting up there with quarterback play with being the most influential aspect of the game. Any idiot can deduce that pass rush and quarterback play during the game are related. And with the rules limiting what DBs can do in coverage and matchups of TEs and gigantic WRs vs less athletic and smaller defenders becoming more and more vogue, the pass rush is the only thing that can keep points off the board no matter what team you are playing.

There’s a case to be made that it might be the single most underrated aspect of the game. And it’s rated pretty high as it is.

"second base is the bizness." -jbox

Bolts from the Blue - San Diego Chargers Blog Created By The Fans, For The Fans

by Wonko on Feb 7, 2012 2:27 PM PST up reply actions 3 recs

This is a really interesting point

that I totally agree on. I’ve heard from some that the line coaches are the most important coaches in all of football, even moreso than the head coach, because of the way those players(OL and DL) dictate game plans(clearly, there’s some hyperbole, but the point is clear). I think that we were trying to do something like that when we drafted Larry English while still having the Merriman-Phillips tandem, but clearly it didn’t work out.

So yeah, I think that sort of philosophy from a GM perspective is interesting, and maybe the Giant’s success will sway GMs to consider talent in that manner.

Further, I think that as the offense gets even more complex in its schemes and the usage of players that attack the middle of the field(such as the advent of the tight end and the slot/3rd down type speedster), I think that the Dline will become an even greater asset as it’s job remains so simple and un-muddied by tactical changes. For example, an ILB now has to be able to rush the passer, cover TEs, stuff the run game, dictate plays and it can only be right a percentage of the time. Thus on other plays, they’re essentially wrong. But the Dline’s job, to crash the pocket will always be effective on every play, more or less.

Not changing this signature until John Gennaro eats his hat.
Nick Diaz was robbed. UFC 143.

by Falawful on Feb 7, 2012 2:43 PM PST up reply actions

I think I could sum up 9 out of 10 off0season charger stories across all media with a haiku.

Sign a Pass Rusher.
Draft for Offensive Line Depth
Solve Strong Safety Prob

by Orz on Feb 7, 2012 1:16 PM PST reply actions 1 recs

You forgot "mysterious new coaches"

Follow @BFTB_Chargers

Bolts from the Blue - Destroying your opinions with facts.

Richard Wade - "I feel like me from four years ago would punch present me in the face. I like to think that's because I've grown as a person."

by John Gennaro on Feb 7, 2012 1:18 PM PST up reply actions

T-shirt!

by CABurrito on Feb 7, 2012 2:21 PM PST up reply actions

even better:

Sign a Pass Rusher.
Draft for Offensive Line Depth
Solve Strong Safety Mess

by Orz on Feb 7, 2012 4:52 PM PST up reply actions

I don't think Gaither will be back

And I don’t think Jammer would be a good SS.

"second base is the bizness." -jbox

Bolts from the Blue - San Diego Chargers Blog Created By The Fans, For The Fans

by Wonko on Feb 7, 2012 2:23 PM PST reply actions

I agree that one would expect Gaither would want to start.

by Orz on Feb 7, 2012 2:55 PM PST up reply actions

I disagree

I think Jammer would be a great SS. He plyas the run well, tackles well, still has the speed to cover TE’s (can’t keep up with speedy young WR’s) and can drop into zone coverage.

As for Gaither, he would be the first FA I would sign if I was the GM. He played incredible LT the end of the season. How could he not be an upgrade over Clary? If MM doesn’t come back, you know he can play LT. Maybe put MM at RT and move Clary inside to LG if Dielman doesn’t come back. That would be solid.

by glamisdave on Feb 7, 2012 2:57 PM PST up reply actions